ROFR Thread April to June 2023 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[Boba(not-so)Fit]

Thanks, wow you're on top of things! I've been experimenting with different ways of normalizing prices to take into account banked/stripped points, seller-paid closing costs, and seller-paid dues. Currently the normalized price is one which equates the initial cost with the PV of "cash flows" generated by the points (Points * solved-for $/Pt) and annual dues. I assume 45 days to close, discount rate of 5%, closing costs of $750, banked points with less than 7 months to expiry are only worth 50% of their value, and less than 4 months are given no value. The value of banked points close to expiration is probably the most important assumptions in terms of rearranging the results and something I'm still working on. I have figures that get adjusted even further for use year and contract size which I may move to, but it needs more analysis. I think the next step is to provide more clarity on the website around how they are ranked. That will lend itself to a tool for people to evaluate their own offers against the historical sales. Also to caveat, I do suspect some of the data was not entered correctly as well (e.g., not including all costs in final price), but I haven't dug in too much yet.

Thanks for the effort in creating that site. It is looking pretty good.

For me when comparing my contracts to others, I keep it pretty simple. I typically use the $/pts per year method found on the search engine site but expand it to take into account the closing costs and MF paid (since they are included in everyone's string). This helps normalize across contracts with a different # of points.

total cost (as per the generator tool) / total # points over life of the contract

So for example, my most recent contract
Boba(not-so)Fit---$135-$21085-150-CCV@WL-Mar-0/22, 115/23, 150/24, 150/25-Seller pays MF '23- sent 4/6, passed 4/25
My total cost was $135*150+ $835 closing = $21085
$21085 / (115 current points + 44 years remaining * 150 points) = $21085/6715 = $3.14 per point

As a comparison, if someone got the same contract for $5 cheaper but paid '23 MF their value would be (assuming same closing costs and CCV '23 MF of $7.92*115 = $910.80)
$21245.80 / 6715 = $3.16 per point

There are probably some holes in this method that some will point out but it works pretty good for me. But then again, maybe I am just bitter because I didn't make the Best Deals list.

 

[buzzandzurg]

Buzzandzurg—-$150-$29071-180-VGF-Jun-0/22, 263/23, 180/24, 180/25- sent 5/19-waiting

 

[Galactic Reversal]

Thanks for the effort in creating that site. It is looking pretty good.

For me when comparing my contracts to others, I keep it pretty simple. I typically use the $/pts per year method found on the search engine site but expand it to take into account the closing costs and MF paid (since they are included in everyone's string). This helps normalize across contracts with a different # of points.

total cost (as per the generator tool) / total # points over life of the contract

So for example, my most recent contract
Boba(not-so)Fit---$135-$21085-150-CCV@WL-Mar-0/22, 115/23, 150/24, 150/25-Seller pays MF '23- sent 4/6, passed 4/25
My total cost was $135*150+ $835 closing = $21085
$21085 / (115 current points + 44 years remaining * 150 points) = $21085/6715 = $3.14 per point

As a comparison, if someone got the same contract for $5 cheaper but paid '23 MF their value would be (assuming same closing costs and CCV '23 MF of $7.92*115 = $910.80)
$21245.80 / 6715 = $3.16 per point

There are probably some holes in this method that some will point out but it works pretty good for me. But then again, maybe I am just bitter because I didn't make the Best Deals list.

Thanks for the kind words, it's been a fun project and still a work in progress. Also, not sure what you're talking about...you're right there at #11


So when it comes to your contract, we're basically doing the same thing except I'm discounting the value of points/MFs further out in time (would you pay the same for 100 points you can use today vs 100 points you have to wait to use until 2033?). Though if you're going to calculate a total $/pt, and use total points over the life of the contract, you should include all of the remaining MF as well (ignoring inflation for simplicity). That would get you ($21805 + 44 years remaining * 150 points * $7.92 MF/pt) / 6715 = $10.92 per point. Now that method does rearrange the CCV top 10...but you're still #11...don't shoot the messenger!

 

[Galactic Reversal]

Was pleasantly surprised to be on the best deals of 2023 list. Am going to use it to show my DW that we didn't overpay too much since we accepted a higher offer than planned. Thanks for compiling all the information together, I hope you keep it going!

Working on a solution now to easily keep the data updated. It costs more to rent one DVC point than it does to keep the website running for a year so hopefully it shouldn't be an issue lol.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Working on a solution now to easily keep the data updated. It costs more to rent one DVC point than it does to keep the website running for a year so hopefully it shouldn't be an issue lol.

If you're taking requests, I would love to see the data going back further (I haven't looked today but think it currently goes back about 2 years?) and also the ability for visitors/owners to opt-in to getting notifications if there's a dramatic trend shift...

 

[Boba(not-so)Fit]

Thanks for the kind words, it's been a fun project and still a work in progress. Also, not sure what you're talking about...you're right there at #11
View attachment 764116

So when it comes to your contract, we're basically doing the same thing except I'm discounting the value of points/MFs further out in time (would you pay the same for 100 points you can use today vs 100 points you have to wait to use until 2033?). Though if you're going to calculate a total $/pt, and use total points over the life of the contract, you should include all of the remaining MF as well (ignoring inflation for simplicity). That would get you ($21805 + 44 years remaining * 150 points * $7.92 MF/pt) / 6715 = $10.92 per point. Now that method does rearrange the CCV top 10...but you're still #11...don't shoot the messenger!

Ok, I think I am on the same page.

Thanks but no need to expand the Best Deals list for me. As hard as it is with some of the prices, I am trying to stay on the bench for now but in the future I will take it as a challenge to get onto the top 10 list. Sivako!

 

[Liquidice]

Woohoo! Now onto the wait for the contract and then the long wait for points to load ...

Liquidice---$275-$29004-100-VGC-Apr-0/22, 200/23, 100/24, 100/25- sent 5/6, passed 5/30

Told I would need to wait a week or two for closing docs - ugh.

 

[lilsonicfan]

Woohoo! Now onto the wait for the contract and then the long wait for points to load ...

Liquidice---$275-$29004-100-VGC-Apr-0/22, 200/23, 100/24, 100/25- sent 5/6, passed 5/30

Told I would need to wait a week or two for closing docs - ugh.

Nice, double points for Apr 2023 UY!

 

[UrsulaWantsYourSoul]

Woohoo! Now onto the wait for the contract and then the long wait for points to load ...

Liquidice---$275-$29004-100-VGC-Apr-0/22, 200/23, 100/24, 100/25- sent 5/6, passed 5/30

Told I would need to wait a week or two for closing docs - ugh.

Hey neighbor hey! Congrats!!! Welcome Home again

 

[Liquidice]

Nice, double points for Apr 2023 UY!

Yes - only bad thing is those points will expire on March 30, 2024 and the 7 month mark for March starts in August - so hopefully closing and points load quickly and I can book something and rent them at VGC, otherwise I'll have to use them somewhere else I guess! I'll be at DLR in October, but there is absolutely no availability there in October, and probably won't make it out there again until June 2024.

 

[Galactic Reversal]

If you're taking requests, I would love to see the data going back further (I haven't looked today but think it currently goes back about 2 years?) and also the ability for visitors/owners to opt-in to getting notifications if there's a dramatic trend shift...

Yes, definitely appreciate requests. I just pulled the data back to 2016 today, but it'll take some time to clean it. Unfortunately, there are usually lots of typos in the data strings. Only have to do it once though! Great idea for notifications, I'll look into it.

 

[Liquidice]

Hey neighbor hey! Congrats!!! Welcome Home again

Thanks! I can't wait to use the points and stay there, I was lucky enough to stay there once in July 2022 (managed to piece together 3 nights by stalking the website) and we really loved it.

 

[FFMickey]

Yes - only bad thing is those points will expire on March 30, 2024 and the 7 month mark for March starts in August - so hopefully closing and points load quickly and I can book something and rent them at VGC, otherwise I'll have to use them somewhere else I guess! I'll be at DLR in October, but there is absolutely no availability there in October, and probably won't make it out there again until June 2024.

Congrats! Welcome home, neighbor. We just closed last week and also waiting for the points to load so I can rent out the 2022 points.

 

[dottieluv22]

dottieluv22---$88-$14538-150-BRV@WL-Dec-0/21, 17/22, 90/23, 150/24-seller pays MF '22- sent 5/7, passed 5/30

Woohoo!!

As this is our first contract, I’m guessing I can expect about another month, give or take, before we have access to our account?

 

[MissScarlet]

Yay! Our first VGC! We have been looking for a small April for years.

MissScarlet---$300-$16086-50-VGC-Apr-0/22, 50/23, 50/24, 50/25- sent 5/6, passed 5/30

 

[hawkfin101]

Hawkfin101---$125-$4423-30-AUL-Feb-0/22, 30/23, 30/24-$399 closing special- sent 5/5, passed 5/30

 

[sndral]

dottieluv22---$88-$14538-150-BRV@WL-Dec-0/21, 17/22, 90/23, 150/24-seller pays MF '22- sent 5/7, passed 5/30

Woohoo!!

As this is our first contract, I’m guessing I can expect about another month, give or take, before we have access to our account?

To get a rough idea of how long things are taking post ROFR hop on over to this thread https://www.disboards.com/threads/closing-time.3836891/page-212#post-64840122.
First, some title companies are really fast & get closing doc.s out w/in a couple of days of passing ROFR, others not so much, https://magicvacationtitle.com/ recently was taking around a month to get documents out although in the last week one or two folks have reported getting them much sooner.
Second, how long will your sellers take to get their doc.s signed & notarized? Some sellers take a long time
Finally, how long will DVC take to set up your account & load your points once all the doc.s are signed & your deed is recorded? Lately it seems to be 2-3 weeks.

 

[lilsonicfan]

dottieluv22---$88-$14538-150-BRV@WL-Dec-0/21, 17/22, 90/23, 150/24-seller pays MF '22- sent 5/7, passed 5/30

Woohoo!!

As this is our first contract, I’m guessing I can expect about another month, give or take, before we have access to our account?

Mine passed on 4/27 and I don't have access as of 5/30, and that is with a relatively fast turnaround for closing documents, me wiring funds, sellers signing. Fingers crossed for this week, but I'm fully prepared it could still be longer.

 

[E2ME2]

Thanks for the kind words, it's been a fun project and still a work in progress. Also, not sure what you're talking about...you're right there at #11
View attachment 764116

So when it comes to your contract, we're basically doing the same thing except I'm discounting the value of points/MFs further out in time (would you pay the same for 100 points you can use today vs 100 points you have to wait to use until 2033?). Though if you're going to calculate a total $/pt, and use total points over the life of the contract, you should include all of the remaining MF as well (ignoring inflation for simplicity). That would get you ($21805 + 44 years remaining * 150 points * $7.92 MF/pt) / 6715 = $10.92 per point. Now that method does rearrange the CCV top 10...but you're still #11...don't shoot the messenger!

Galactic Reversal: - I must have missed the link to your "best deals" site. Can you please provide again.
THANKS!

 

[MsChristy12]

Thanks for the kind words, it's been a fun project and still a work in progress. Also, not sure what you're talking about...you're right there at #11
View attachment 764116

So when it comes to your contract, we're basically doing the same thing except I'm discounting the value of points/MFs further out in time (would you pay the same for 100 points you can use today vs 100 points you have to wait to use until 2033?). Though if you're going to calculate a total $/pt, and use total points over the life of the contract, you should include all of the remaining MF as well (ignoring inflation for simplicity). That would get you ($21805 + 44 years remaining * 150 points * $7.92 MF/pt) / 6715 = $10.92 per point. Now that method does rearrange the CCV top 10...but you're still #11...don't shoot the messenger!

Wow your website is pretty cool!
I give lots of props for those of you who do the deep analysis...because I can't...lol! I mean, I can but I don't want to. If the basic analysis checks out for me, we actually will save money in the future, and it's what we love, that's as far as I will go.