ROFR Thread April to June 2022 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[varyth]

I don't think a recession will impact the price of VGC as much as an influx of 5-6 million new points that's coming at VDH. Don't get me wrong. In the long scheme of things, most people will prefer to stay at VGC. But the overall value of VGC has to take a hit because of the influx of 600% more inventory in Anaheim that was not available in the past.

I'm in the camp of wanting to buy VGC resale eventually, but holding out with the hope that VDH will exert some downward pressure.

 

[pks_domer]

Shopping for Poly for sub $140 and maybe RIV for sub $110.

I think there was a $140 Poly that made it through a few months ago...

 

[NVDISFamily]

WRT to the interest rate, why do you think the fed will bring it back to zero? As far as I can tell, I don't think there will be a reprieve from inflation anytime soon and raising interest rate is just about the only tool in the bag for the fed to counter it. I'm not sure what's more scary. A recession/depression or hyper inflation.

I don’t hope they will do this, but I see it as another way to try and juice the economy and at this point it feels like the powers that be are taking a see if it sticks to the wall approach to try and fix/save the economy. It’s been the favorite way to pump the economy for almost my entire life so why would they stop now is kind of how I’m thinking. Agree that we have two potential bad ways out of this madness and either could happen.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I'm in the camp of wanting to buy VGC resale eventually, but holding out with the hope that VDH will exert some downward pressure.

You guys need to get some Cast Member friends.

 

[NVDISFamily]

You guys need to get some Cast Member friends.

I have to ask why?

 

[theMoreDisneytheBetter]

I do wonder if I should have just held out and waited a few more months to see how bad things get before buying the VGC stuff but the kids are only going to be this age for X more years and I think I got a good deal compared to what the VGC market looked like a few months ago. I might just wait on my direct purchase to see if they do a fire sale on anything in the coming years as I don’t really need more points

I do fear that when it starts getting bad that the feds will just drop us back down to 0% rates and start printing and handing out free cash like candy to really YOLO the market for as long as they can. This will likely crush the lower income people the most but can cause a rise in assets for those who have them. So who knows what will/can happen in the coming months with DVC. I will agree that the buyers market is trending more that way but I do fear another spike in prices if the money printer goes into 11 and get’s stuck there for some time……

W/r/t the Fed the “Fed Put” (ie where they would step in to try to stabilize markets) is a lot farther away now given what is happening with inflation. We just had an 8.6% print on CPI and long term inflation expectations (something they care about A LOT) are dangerously close to becoming unanchored. What that means is that the Fed - and ECB but for slightly different reasons - are probably going to have to become more aggressive not less aggressive in fighting inflation even if that means putting us into a mild recession.

What that means for resale prices and ROFR I’ll leave to someone else to figure out.

 

[badeacon]

I just saw on DFB Poly spirit of aloha demolition has begun. It’s really coming!

"Reflections "says do not jump to conclusions!!

 

[flute38]

flute38---$139-$29551-200-AKV-Jun-0/20, 0/21, 112/22, 200/23- sent 4/18 taken 6/13

Just updated. It may have been taken a few days earlier but I only found out today. New offer already made. Will post when it gets sent to ROFR.

 

[Ginamarie]

wait for what?

Paying off other things first. Can you imagine any expenses more important than DVC points though? Lol.

 

[NVDISFamily]

I'm in the camp of wanting to buy VGC resale eventually, but holding out with the hope that VDH will exert some downward pressure.

But the overall value of VGC has to take a hit because of the influx of 600% more inventory in Anaheim that was not available in the past.

I think that families focused on studio stays would be very pressured to sell VGC and buy VDH and I would encourage them to realize their gains and do this as there will likely be so much better availability as studios gain by a huge % plus there are PODs for couples trips or solo stays. When you go to 1BR or larger units it's not a big increase of inventory and this will make it less attractive for those looking to book those nicer rooms for their stays. I'm in the would like 1BR or 2BR for most trips and this was a big factor in tilting towards VGC for our family.

I do hope this makes studio stays a bit less of a madhouse at VGC as there will be less pressure on the system. Overall I think both resorts will be awesome for years to come.

	VGC	VDH	Percent Increase
Small Rooms (Studio and POD)	23​	309​	1343%​
1BR	23​	19​	83%​
2BR	23​	20​	87%​
GV	2​	2​	100%​

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I think that families focused on studio stays would be very pressured to sell VGC and buy VDH and I would encourage them to realize their gains and do this as there will likely be so much better availability as studios gain by a huge % plus there are PODs for couples trips or solo stays. When you go to 1BR or larger units it's not a big increase of inventory and this will make it less attractive for those looking to book those nicer rooms for their stays. I'm in the would like 1BR or 2BR for most trips and this was a big factor in tilting towards VGC for our family.

I do hope this makes studio stays a bit less of a madhouse at VGC as there will be less pressure on the system. Overall I think both resorts will be awesome for years to come.

	VGC	VDH	Percent Increase
Small Rooms (Studio and POD)	23​	309​	1343%​
1BR	23​	19​	83%​
2BR	23​	20​	87%​
GV	2​	2​	100%​

Oh, you're preaching to the choir. I completely agree with your sentiment about the pressure for studios. I was just commenting on overall demand of the resort as opposed to specific room types. As a lover of the bigger room layouts at VGC, I couldn't agree with you more that VGC will reign supreme. But the high points chart for those rooms is a prohibiting factor. When I bought VGC, I thought I was going to stay in 1BRs most of the time. But what I found myself doing was booking studios more often than not to stretch out my points because my children are still small and we prefer going 2-3 times a year. I think Disney got it right though with all these new studios. Most people only need a 2-4 night stay at DLR. We on the other hand stay 7-10 days because we're coming from Hawaii and we want to make our plane tickets worth it. I agree with you that both resorts will be awesome. My plan is to buy a small-ish VDH contract so that I can do split stays. Start at VDH studio for the first 3 nights and finish with a 5-6 night VGC 1BR stay. Even better would be if VDH did NOT have resale restrictions so I can use my SAP to stay there. But I know that's just wishful thinking. Besides, 7 month availability at VDH will probably be rough like VGC.

 

[NVDISFamily]

we're coming from Hawaii

Aloah from the 9th island!

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Aloah from the 9th island!

we love the 9th island!!

 

[Royal Consort]

I'm in the camp of wanting to buy VGC resale eventually, but holding out with the hope that VDH will exert some downward pressure.

I don't know how much pressure there will be. I fully expect the price of VGC to reduce somewhat but it won't be competitive with VDH. It will remain comparatively high. There is a value associated with VGC being the only game in town, but there's value with it being the flagship. The villas are just so small that unless you're an owner, you're unlikely to stay there. I don't see how that would change. VDH just won't have the amenities that Grand Californian has.

Be mindful that VGC will also undergo a full refurb one year after VDH opens.

Your comment even implies you prefer VGC to VDH and I think a lot of people would share that sentiment maintaining its strong resale potential.

The lack of studio balconies and poor views ruled me out of VDH. I had even put the cash aside with the intention of buying. I don't think they're going to be equivalent products. I can foresee VGC owners adding on at VDH, but selling a better resort to buy a less superior one? Not convinced.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Most people only need a 2-4 night stay at DLR.

Which makes me very curious to see what sales look like. The general consensus seems to be that the resort will sell like wildfire, but part of me thinks they might struggle to move 150 point minimums. Very few people need 150 points at Disneyland.

 

[Chia1974]

https://www.adventuresbydisney.com/...jNmjXJZCbqaYoPxH6AbG1YdwGTJmJ5zYMNc&fs=e&s=cl

YOLO!
$109,995

 

[hglenn]

https://www.adventuresbydisney.com/...jNmjXJZCbqaYoPxH6AbG1YdwGTJmJ5zYMNc&fs=e&s=cl

What in the actual???

 

[Chia1974]

What in the actual???

That’s it! I’m renting out every single of my points for the next 6 years. And take a month off work and hire a nanny for a month.

 

[Stargazer65]

Paying off other things first. Can you imagine any expenses more important than DVC points though? Lol.

https://www.adventuresbydisney.com/...jNmjXJZCbqaYoPxH6AbG1YdwGTJmJ5zYMNc&fs=e&s=cl

YOLO!
$109,995

If we all would cut out frivolous expenses in our daily lives like buying groceries, and heating the home, we would have more money for nice things like this.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

What in the actual???

Royal Caribbean is running "The Ultimate World Cruise" for 274 nights and it's half that price.