ROFR - Is now the time to buy???

[OutNChiTown]

Most recently, we've seen more and more ROFR processing without being taken by Disney, such as:

mhite2289 ---$89-$24170-250-BLT-OCT- 250/15, 250/16, 250/17, sent 1/12, passed ROFR 2/5

Is it possible that Disney overbought at the end of 2015 or that the delays and budget problems in Shanghai Disney are being felt across Disney?

Disney Development has been passing on ROFR on more and more and although they are a separate entity of Disney Parks, is it possible that now is the time to buy as The Walt Disney Corporation shifts funds over to Disney Shanghai?

Love to hear your thoughts!

Out

 

[ColinBlair]

I think it is most likely someone made a mistake.

 

[OutNChiTown]

Look at the ROFR board. I watch this board every day as I was waiting for my ROFR and I was comparing ROFR that were passing. Person confirmed that it was correct. But, more than that, people are left and right seeing their ROFR passing. Mine:

OutNChiTown --- $80 - $34,891 - 400 - SSR - AUR - 0/14, 255/15, 400/16, 400/17, Sent Jan 25, waiting.

PASSED - 2/17 SO EXCITED!!!

I think a lot of people are experiencing a pass and I think right now might be the right time to buy resale!

 

[ColinBlair]

I didn't say who made the mistake, if everything else is correct then Disney made a mistake letting it through.

Currently the ROFR thread is showing 2 contracts taken and 20 contracts approved. Last year's thread shows 8 contracts taken and 60 contracts approved as of this time last year. I don't understand how anything can be learned from that information.

 

[OutNChiTown]

Ok, I certainly appreciate that opinion. My opinion is this. I think with a 30 day ROFR processing period, Disney doesn't make a mistake like approving an $89 BLT contract. I would believe there are checks and balances. But, it's certainly a possibility.

With that said, you're also pulling your data from this website, right? Meaning, not everyone reports to DISBoards whether they are doing a resale purchase. Plus, this time last year still has 21 in "waiting" status. Individuals who pass ROFR generally post that they are excited about passing. People who don't pass ROFR are less likely to post that they didn't pass the ROFR. So, I'd wager that more of those 21 that are still in waiting status were taken.

All I'm saying is this. I bought a great double contract sale, 2 200 point contracts for a total of $80pp. There are also 255 points banked from last year. My experience tells me that Disney would probably buy this back (I've done two ROFR before (I know, not a lot, but still have some experience)). This is a great contract and I think Disney would generally buy this back if the situation were business as normal. I think Disney buys an $89 BLT back if it's business as normal. As such, I think Disney might not be operating with "business as normal" right now.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

DVC has never bought everything back at a certain price point that I've seen in the 8 years of watching resale prices. Lower priced contracts can make it thru. And sometimes they take contracts that are higher and surprised people. It's often compared to a dart board and isn't too far off from that. And they'll have gone in spurts where they don't ROFR much if anything and then the ROFR a lot.

 

[ColinBlair]

A 150 point SSR contract @ $85 was just taken. Dart board for the win.

 

[DisDadDVC]

I think the #1 factor in ROFR is matching a waitlist request.

 

[OutNChiTown]

A 150 point SSR contract @ $85 was just taken. Dart board for the win.

I suppose that does prove my theory wrong. I was hoping there was some method to the Disney Development ROFR processing. More over, since we saw a larger buy back at the end of 2015, I was hoping Q1 would allow us to see a lot more people passing the ROFR.

Womp Womp. Oh well

 

[pork]

Rofr does seem to be moving fast right now. My wilderness contrarct cleared in a week.

 

[Minniesgal]

I think the ROFR is useful information but far too small a sample size to draw conclusions about lower ROFR activity

It could just be that that department had spent their budget for the month and let it slide.

 

[CarolMN]

IMO, price is only one factor in the ROFR decision. Another is the particular unit attached to the contract due to the way Disney can combine points from different contracts. I'm quite sure there are others that we don't know about - and may never know about.

Interesting discussion, but I don't think we can correctly infer anything about Disney's decision criteria from the info we have - as others have posted, our DIS ROFR data is very far from a statistically valid sample!

 

[hayesdvc]

To chime in with everyone else about no rhyme or reason what is taken, I had one taken and one passed. Based on the banked points, I thought the contract that passed was better than the one they took.


Hayesdvc---$86-$15050-175-SSR-June-135/14, 0/15,175/16,175/17 - sent 10/30, taken 11/27

hayesdvc---$87-$15275-160-SSR-Aug-160/15, 160/16, 160/17- sent 12/18, passed 12/30

 

[SuperRob]

Rofr does seem to be moving fast right now. My wilderness contrarct cleared in a week.

I'll see your anecdote with my own. I'm on Day 29 waiting on ROFR. Just because some move fast doesn't mean they all will. In my case, I think the fact that it's a VGF contract and they have a long waitlist is getting them to consider the lower margin to make someone happy. But that's just a guess ... I'll never have complete data watching this from the outside. I don't know what members are on waitlists for specific use years. I don't know what contracts Disney already holds, so I don't know what units they might be looking for to make a larger contract. It's not always about price / margin, there are a lot of other factors, and you just don't have visibility into about half of them.

 

[CraigInPA]

Disney seems to exercise their ROFR take option more often on loaded contracts with current year points fully available. Totally stripped contracts typically sail through. Of course, totally stripped contracts generally are not good deals unless significantly ($10-15 per point) cheaper than a loaded contract. The large resale companies tend to advise their clients to price these stripped contracts $4-6 per point lower than a loaded contract. So, if you're interested in a stripped contract, be prepared to offer lower, hear the resale broker tell you the customer will "never take that", and see what happens.

 

[jerseyduke]

ROFR is going to be determined by factors that we do not know.

2 contracts for the same resort, same point total, same number of points available, totally identical, except Contract 1 is 90 per point, Contract 2 is 93 per point.
Disney may very well pass on contract 1, but take contract 2. Simply because that was in a residential unit they needed points for. There is no way for us to know this.

I think the main reason to purchase should be price, and from my observations, prices do seem to be lower in the early part of the year. But I have not tracked enough data to prove that.

I do not know about what the PP said. Someone else would have to comment, but even if a contract is stripped, for legal purposes, the points are in disney's point pool, the law requiring them to own at least 2%.

If disney wants to sell a 200 point contract at BLT, but doing so would drop their ownership to less than 2%, they must first buy 200 points. It is my understanding that a stripped contract would still enable disney to meet this criteria, even without current points. So really, in this scenario, stripped contracts are a better deal for disney.