Riviera Sales by the numbers (vs CCV) for 2019 - (December added 1/16/2020)

[skier_pete]

Like your other posts that I often find myself agreeing with, I also feel that the new restrictions change everything.

So much so that I feel Riviera and every timeshare moving forward is going to be a shadow of what came before it. I cannot see myself buying in without first being proven wrong about how I foresee this new model impacting the historically observed popularity of Disney’s timeshare.

I also worry about what this portends for the future of a product that built its popularity on flexibility. That flexibility is destroyed with the new restrictions and my biggest worry is how much of the system the new restrictions will take down with it.

I appreciate and understand all of that. But any issue I have with the restrictions lay squarely with Disney and the developers who came up with this new model.

I want these new restrictions to fail. I will be vocal about how this model hurts the ownership to the benefit of Disney only. I just don’t see how disparaging owners who do buy in furthers that objective.

@Bing Showei and I are on the same page....nothing against those that buy at Riviera - but Disney is now creating an inferior product. By inferior product I am not talking about that the product itself is worse - but by restricting resale, they are harming the direct owners in two major ways:

1) They are reducing the resale value of the product. And I'm sorry - there is NO doubt that this will happen - the question is only HOW MUCH it hurts the resale value. Perhaps Riviera's location on the Skyway will keep those prices up, but imagine an SSR with resale only allowing you to stay at SSR. That resort would be going for less than $50 a point.
2) Reducing the resale value will not stop many owners from selling. People sell because they either financially need to or they tire of the product. Therefore, there will eventually be a lot of resale owners at the resort. Maybe it's only 20% after 20 years, maybe it's 40%. Whatever it is, those owners will all be rushing to book at 11 months - because the CAN'T go anywhere else. They can't possibly risk waiting until 7 months when people from other resorts can book in. This means the competition for rooms at 11 months will become fierce - and this will also hurt direct owners, who if not ready to book at 11 months will be shuffled off to OKW or SSR at 7 months.

These are problems that all previous owners did not have to contend with. But Riviera owners (and all resorts going forward) will. Obviously if you choose to buy a fixed week, then #2 doesn't apply to you, but #1 does.

And understand - while both these items fail harm the direct owner - they HELP Disney. Low resale values on a restricted product give them better opportunity to rebuy resorts. Resale owners that aren't shrewd in booking their points will lose their points - making more breakage and lining Disney's pockets. Another win for Disney.

So - nothing against the owners - but Disney saying they are doing this for benefit of the owners - certainly not.

 

[jlb727]

We probably would have bought Riviera if the maintenance fees were about a dollar less pp. Like previous posters, once we saw how high those were, we started investigating and discovered the resale market and the resale restrictions on Riv. Our concerns about buying direct there turned into a hard NO. We ended up buying resale. So I agree with those who said Disney is creating the opposite effect that they say they want.

 

[Pyotr]

I remember staying in a treehouse in the early 80s. I want to say 1984 but will have to double check with my parents.

 

[Jenniebee]

The Treehouse villas were part of the old Disney Village resort. It was where SSR is now, looked like your basic 80's apartment style complex. I think there were Fairway Villas, and the Treehouse Villas were a separate section. I remember you could see the buildings from the Empress Lilly (now Paddlefish).

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

OK, Good to know. I knew DI was not part of DVC but had assumed the buldings were just remodeled.



Really appreciate all the resort history you have! Do you recall if they were ever rented out? I'm pretty sure the letter Disney sent back with the deposit check claimed they were going to rent them rather than sell them. I thought they only became CM housing later, after the upkeep became too much. (We actually have an original sales folder from way back then, it is a unique piece of WDW history.)

They were vacation guest accommodations for quite awhile.

I recall reading somewhere that after planning the residential section and maybe even a model or two Disney realized that would have permanent residents with voting rights within Reedy Creek. Those people would get a say on taxes, development etc. And so that idea came to an end. It's so easy to find instances where Disney had some fairly simple oop's moments like this that I always chuckle when people state how Disney has a plan and always knows exactly what they are doing. Sure, they have a plan. They also miss things - sometimes very obvious things.

 

[emchen]

2) Reducing the resale value will not stop many owners from selling. People sell because they either financially need to or they tire of the product.

Agree 100%

Therefore, there will eventually be a lot of resale owners at the resort. Maybe it's only 20% after 20 years, maybe it's 40%. Whatever it is, those owners will all be rushing to book at 11 months - because the CAN'T go anywhere else. They can't possibly risk waiting until 7 months when people from other resorts can book in. This means the competition for rooms at 11 months will become fierce - and this will also hurt direct owners, who if not ready to book at 11 months will be shuffled off to OKW or SSR at 7 months.

I just want to point out that you are only looking at the RIV side of the "resale restriction moat". On the other side, the resale L14 side (resale-owners grandfathered in pre-1/19), the absolute number of that cohort that can book into RIV at 7 mo. will never be higher than it is today. I postulate that number, and the rate of decrease will end up being greater than the rate of increase in the number of RIV resale-owners. Based on the law of numbers, for every new RIV-resale owner forced to book RIV only, there will be 2 or more @Sandisw or someone like her selling their pre-2019 resale contract (assuming she is selling one of her resale contracts). If true, it will cancel out the effect you are describing in your hypothesis.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I just want to point out that you are only looking at the RIV side of the "resale restriction moat". On the other side, the resale L14 side (resale-owners grandfathered in pre-1/19), the absolute number of that cohort that can book into RIV at 7 mo. will never be higher than it is today. I postulate that number, and the rate of decrease will end up being greater than the rate of increase in the number of RIV resale-owners. Based on the law of numbers, for every new RIV-resale owner forced to book RIV only, there will be 2 or more @Sandisw or someone like her selling their pre-2019 resale contract (assuming she is selling one of her resale contracts). If true, it will cancel out the effect you are describing in your hypothesis.

This will actually be an 11 month window problem for Riviera, not 7 month issue. Other resort owners trading in at 7 months are not going to have an effect beyond the part that it will be a long, long time, as in never, before there are fewer direct owners at other resorts that can book at 7 months than are allowed to transfer out of Riviera. That will mean that Riviera resale owners can't wait past that window to safely secure a reservation at the only place they can stay onsite. Each new resort added will have direct buyers than will also be allowed to exchange into Riviera so there will constantly be new owners replacing any new resale owners who can't.

 

[Wakey]

Re standard view. I was at Riviera a while back (just outside ) and surprised how close it seemed to the road. When I stay there I’ll only stay standard due to points being very high for preferred, so it will be interesting to see if it’s better than it looks.
I have stayed standard at AKV Kidani (OK, trees outside, then car park, then approach road in distance) and BWV (very good opposite tennis courts) and Riviera looks like it could be worse.

 

[CarolynFH]

Re standard view. I was at Riviera a while back (just outside ) and surprised how close it seemed to the road. When I stay there I’ll only stay standard due to points being very high for preferred, so it will be interesting to see if it’s better than it looks.
I have stayed standard at AKV Kidani (OK, trees outside, then car park, then approach road in distance) and BWV (very good opposite tennis courts) and Riviera looks like it could be worse.

Well, we booked one night Riviera standard view in early February, so I guess we’ll find out!

 

[Wakey]

Well, we booked one night Riviera standard view in early February, so I guess we’ll find out!

Please let us know, even better do a YouTube video and link it!

 

[emchen]

This will actually be an 11 month window problem for Riviera, not 7 month issue. Other resort owners trading in at 7 months are not going to have an effect beyond the part that it will be a long, long time, as in never, before there are fewer direct owners at other resorts that can book at 7 months than are allowed to transfer out of Riviera. That will mean that Riviera resale owners can't wait past that window to safely secure a reservation at the only place they can stay onsite. Each new resort added will have direct buyers than will also be allowed to exchange into Riviera so there will constantly be new owners replacing any new resale owners who can't.

in that case, I think the 11-m window problem predates RIV. Arguably it is a “VGC problem” or “BCV problem during F&W” right now...except RIV will have substantially more inventory to mitigate the problem. Personally, I bought a VGC resale contract to use exclusively at VGC. I know @skier_pete and @Bing Showei have stated they bought BWV or BCV to use exclusively at those resorts at 11mo for Food&Wine Festivals. I agree it is a problem dwindling availability at 11mo is a problem, but it is not new to DVC ecosystem and I don’t see the RIV-problem being substantially worse. Its like self-censorship vs state-censorship. In the end, the result is the same.

 

[kboo]

This is true.
However, if people are not really that knowledgeable, then why put the resale restrictions in the first place? If people don't know what resale is and how it works, DVC shouldn't worry at all.
Restrictions are for people who know that resale exists and DVC hopes that with the restrictions they may be swayed away from resale and into buying direct.

If X is the number of people who would have bought resale and decide to buy direct because of the resale restrictions
If Y is the number of people who would have bought direct but decide not to buy or buy resale because of the resale restrictions
Then DVC wins only if X > Y

But both X and Y are people who know how the resale market works. I have read a lot of messages by people who said they would have bought Riviera but they haven't because of the resale restrictions. I haven't read that many by people who wanted to buy resale but switched to direct because of it. I think Y > X

I definitely think they misjudged the impact on the knowledgable consumer. As you say - the reason behind it was to drive more people to direct sales, not drive more people to resale at older resorts.

I agree with both of your statements, but one thing you're missing is the number of people who buy DVC without doing much research at all. If you call that Z, I would posit that Z >> X, Z >> Y, and Z >> X+Y. So Disney is happy to let X and Y decide what they want to do given the current state of resale v. direct benefits, and work more on Z. For one thing, Z only knows what the situation is when Z buys, and so they're less likely to care or be upset with how things "used to be."

I agree with your post. Just thought I'd give my data point. We just bought 75 points direct, and 125 resale. While getting in before the blue card minimum went up to 100 was nice, the real reason we bought 75 direct was so that we could use banking and borrowing to stay at a "new" resort once every 3 years. Had the recent resale restrictions not been in place, we likely would have forgone the "blue card perks", and bought the whole thing resale.

I also think that Disney upping the minimum to get direct benefits shows that they actually have little to no interest in selling small add ons, and would prefer to go after the Z population who, if they're first time buyers, are likely to buy 100+ points anyway.

Every ROFR on OKW that Disney takes automatically gets the 2057 extension..so, yes- that would speak to some of these numbers.

This caught my eye in the article - despite the headline suggesting that lower numbers were related to RIV, buried in the middle was this little nugget as well - that Disney was processing so many OKW extensions and this may have taken time/hours away from processing new sales.

You forget that what DVC is changed about 10 years ago - and it's not something everyone acknowledges.

When DVC started, it was designed to be reasonable alternative to deluxe accommodations at more moderate pricing. Even when AKV opened, the point charts and the buy-in price indicated that.

Between 2009 and 2012, with the opening of BLT things changed. DIsney jacked the prices almost 40% in like 5 years, and instead of designing rooms that were nice but not particularly luxurious, they changed the rooms to be luxury accommodations with marble bathrooms, stainless steel fridges, and TVs built into the mirrors. They rejected the middle class buyer at this point and said "we are going for luxury now".

10 years ago you could buy direct into AKV for $115 a point, and stay in a studio for average 15 points a night. Today you pay $188 a point and average about 25 points a night at Riviera. That's a 71% increase in the cost of a studio in 10 years. It's a specific choice to target a different clientele.

I added the bold - because I think you're right. unless we are in active adding-on status, current owners of DVC are either using their points and spending money at the parks, or *someone* is staying on their points and spending money at the parks and restaurants, or there's breakage and they can rent the rooms out anyway.

New buyers, especially new and uninformed ones who buy with pixie dust in their eyes, or who buy only knowing what it's like to live under the current set of restrictions, are not going to care all that much about how much better it was 3 rounds of restrictions ago, because it's not like they were ever in the position to buy back then anyway. While some might say it's easier to target current owners with a new add-on, I think the DVC 2.0 model is to get new owners in to buy direct; they won't ever see the resale restrictions affect their USE of their DVC, and then when they decide to sell, they end up selling at a discount, possibly a steep one, which is still *better* than most other timeshares that you can't pay someone to take. (And I say this as someone who grew up with RCI vacations for 30-ish years). I don't put a value judgment on people's choices because different people buy for different reasons. We were already staying deluxe before buying in, but buying DVC allowed us to vacation differently at Disney. We are able to take friends and family, and so yes, we are definitely spending more money, but it's a completely different experience now. And even if we were going to be going just the 4 of us, it's a much, much better experience in a villa than in a hotel room.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

in that case, I think the 11-m window problem predates RIV. Arguably it is a “VGC problem” or “BCV problem during F&W” right now...except RIV will have substantially more inventory to mitigate the problem. Personally, I bought a VGC resale contract to use exclusively at VGC. I know Pete and Bing have stated they by BWV or BCV to use exclusively at those resorts at 11mo for Food&Wine Festivals. I agree it is a problem, but it is not new to DVC ecosystem and I don’t see the RIV-problem being substantially worse. Its like self-censorship vs state-censorship. In the end, the result is the same.

VGC an 11 month problem? I've owned there since it opened and have no angst about booking there. But even if there were it is still quite a difference with Riviera vs tightening 11 month availability at certain times. Those owners of BCV or VGF etc. still have the options to book whatever else is open at 7 months at the other resorts. SSR, OKW, AKV and so on - whatever is available. A Riviera owner will not have any other option - none at all for an onsite stay. It's very, very different.

And many of the 11 months complaints are still mostly about certain room categories. ie - they didn't get their Standard view rooms but they still could have booked lakeview or pool/garden view and so on.

 

[emchen]

Those owners of BCV or VGF etc. still have the options to book whatever else is open at 7 months at the other resorts. SSR, OKW, AKV and so on - whatever is available. A Riviera owner will not have any other option - none at all for an onsite stay. It's very, very different.

I am clear on that difference...as I analogized, as different as self-censorship and state-censorship. Very, very different, but in the end, not so different because you are censor’ed....aka result is the same.

re onsite stays, lack of alternative option is the case for all non-WDW resorts...VGC, AUL, VB, HH all have that problem...being able to book OKW at 7mo doesn’t put me onsite in Anaheim.

And many of the 11 months complaints are still mostly about certain room categories. ie - they didn't get their Standard view rooms but they still could have booked lakeview or pool/garden view and so on.

Agree, not a huge problem...on the “Exclusive-Use Points” thread, many owners admit that is how they use their Most Valuable Contracts (MVP) I wouldn’t be surprised if you told me you used your VGC points exclusively for VGC (or the vast majority of times)...because you paid a premium for those points for that 11mo window. Sure I could use my VGC pts at SSR or OKW...but I won’t because why would I voluntarily devalue those points at 7 mo? In the end, we “self-censor”, and I agree, it doesn’t end up being a big deal (RIV also has those different categories...just more inventory).

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

Just too expensive, too many points to stay there, too much in member fees, and too difficult to get out of if we want to (due to resale restrictions). The rooms also look too small. We looked at it last night on utube. Not a fan of the bathroom set up (again). The skyliner does not seem to be “awesome” either. And what’s with the theme? Yeah, the rooms are nice, but it is a cut and paste theme of a bunch of different ideas. Some of the art doesn’t make sense to me at all. If you want to stay there for a week per year in a 2 bedroom, isn’t that about 400 points? That’s like $75000 just to buy the points. Lol. Never mind member fees. Very few people will go for this. I think only couples who want to go for the studios and can do something with a smaller contract. I am not a marketing professional, but I’d bet money that this resort does not appeal to families at all. Disney needs to remember who their customers are.

 

[Sandisw]

Just too expensive, too many points to stay there, too much in member fees, and too difficult to get out of if we want to (due to resale restrictions). The rooms also look too small. We looked at it last night on utube. Not a fan of the bathroom set up (again). The skyliner does not seem to be “awesome” either. And what’s with the theme? Yeah, the rooms are nice, but it is a cut and paste theme of a bunch of different ideas. Some of the art doesn’t make sense to me at all. If you want to stay there for a week per year in a 2 bedroom, isn’t that about 400 points? That’s like $75000 just to buy the points. Lol. Never mind member fees. Very few people will go for this. I think only couples who want to go for the studios and can do something with a smaller contract. I am not a marketing professional, but I’d bet money that this resort does not appeal to families at all. Disney needs to remember who their customers are.

Once the resort opens, I wonder if Disney is counting on families riding the Skyliner from CBR, AOA, and POP to be wowed by it and purchase on impulses?

 

[Soap_1984]

Once the resort opens, I wonder if Disney is counting on families riding the Skyliner from CBR, AOA, and POP to be wowed by it and purchase on impulses?

With the way it is priced I doubt this is the target clientèle. It is hard to justify the finances at Riv when comparing to just booking rooms every year at riviera, I imagine the math looks significantly worse if you stay commonly at cbr, aoa and pop.

 

[emchen]

Once the resort opens, I wonder if Disney is counting on families riding the Skyliner from CBR, AOA, and POP to be wowed by it and purchase on impulses?

Maybe, but certainly not to DIS Veterans like @we"reofftoneverland :

Just too expensive, too many points to stay there, too much in member fees, and too difficult to get out of if we want to (due to resale restrictions)

“Too expensive”? Not when compared with direct prices at other resorts. “Too many points to stay there”? Not when compared with VGF, VGC, BCV. “Too much in member fees?” VB, AKL, AUL. “Too difficult to get out of?” AUL, VB, HH, SSR (all sell below or at their initial buy in price)

Definitely targeting the average Disney Corp lover who have zero idea that a “resale market” exists. The enlightened DISboard reader? not so much.

 

[emchen]

New buyers, especially new and uninformed ones who buy with pixie dust in their eyes, or who buy only knowing what it's like to live under the current set of restrictions, are not going to care all that much about how much better it was 3 rounds of restrictions ago, because it's not like they were ever in the position to buy back then anyway.

This...agree! This will be >95% of the target market / buyers.

 

[Soap_1984]

I agree this is the target market, but my point is that there has been some kind of roi to the product that doesn't seem to be there any more. At some point all the people on this board were the target market and knew almost nothing. I think for many/most a tangible financial consideration, whether that was spending the same amount as you previously did but having nicer accommodations, or the same accommodations and spending less money, factored into your decision making. With the pricing and new restrictions that benefit only disney, I am wondering how they expect to sell so many memberships; this isn't 2001 when dvc was brand new and no one knew what it was. It is a well developed and marketed product.

I think wereofftoneverland was making the point that everything is high at riviera: price per point, point chart and dues. The other resorts have trade offs (I.e. high fees but low chart and up front cost etc). sure high point chart at vgf, but the dues are among the cheapest so you can sell that as a savings. And with a high point chart comes the requirement for more points, which makes dues an even bigger consideration; $2 less per year is significant.

Akv is almost a dollar per point cheaper mf than Riv.

Comparing Riv resale to the low resale of the off property resorts/high mf resorts is interesting, perhaps the resale restriction "discount" will be comparable to those. So far seems that way albeit minuscule sample size.