Riviera Resale Values

It is very true for me. I won't need to sell for money I didn't use money I may need in the future to buy. Many people are short sighted when spending their money when I am done with DVC it will go to my adult children who love to go if they want to sell so be it.

If you are so inclined to worry what the future may bring, spending your money on frivolous things is not the answer. Too many here buy looking to reap a windfall after using DVC for many years and history has shown that but the future may have a different outlook.
I totally agree. I commented on another thread that DVC shouldn't be looked at as an "investment". It's not. It is a luxury purchase for those that foresee years of WDW trips in their future. It makes sense for those people because it will save money on room reservations over the life of the contract. I am even of the mindset that it shouldn't be financed...it is one of those things that you buy if you can afford it. I didn't even take the future resale value of the contract into consideration when I bought into DVC last year, because I don't intend to ever sell. For what it's worth, I ran this by my financial advisor last year before I bought and he agreed with this outlook.

So all that said, if you can afford a direct Riviera contract and want to continue visiting WDW into the future...then do it! And don't look back. Enjoy the many, many years of future memories. But to the OPs original question, don't buy into Riviera hoping the resale values will hold up. Because the future is uncertain. But if you buy with the intention of not selling, then you won't be disappointed.

PS - I have read so many threads on these boards where people have "spreadsheeted" buying into DVC to death. They try to examine every single little angle to validate buying into DVC. I get it...it's a lot of money. But it is impossible to 100% quantify a DVC membership, IMO. A lot of the value in a DVC membership is driven by emotion. It's fun...and memories...and family together time. If a family can afford it and wants to continue visiting WDW into the future (and saving on deluxe rooms in the process), then do it!!
 
I know people are very hesitant about Riviera, but for a family who doesn't intend to sell (and don't say NO ONE intends to sell because a lot of people come on these boards and specifically say they see themselves holding contract for 10-20 years and then selling), we are excited about the possibilities. We just booked our first Riviera reservation this morning, and I cannot wait to get back to the resort with my kids and other family members.
The problem is you're talking about a 50 year contract and people go through many stages of life in those 50 years. Part of the attractiveness for DVC is that historically there has been an exit plan that isn't a huge headache/financial loss. It's not surprising that making that exit plan more difficult turns off some buyers.

10-20 years is a long time. Median duration of home ownership in the US is 13 years so it's not surprising that people expect vacation preferences to change over that time span.

I guess it would be interesting to know if Disney have already executed ROFR on any Riviera resales and if so, what price point that was at.
As far as I know Disney does not ROFR resorts that are not sold out. There might be some exception to that rule that I'm not aware of though.
 
When buying resale today, I would not look at resale prices today as what they will be when you have to sell RIV down the line.

Riv resale prices will match and eventually be valued higher than the 2042 resorts as those first resorts come closer to their closing. The resale pricing of RIV will need to be balanced between 2 factors, being stuck with 1 resort for more years vs less years on the legacy resorts but having flexibility to try different resorts. When you have decades more of purchasing power on RIV, that will be worth something on the resale market (even a rental investor would prefer to buy RIV points to rent each year as a worst case scenario, where the point resale value will be based on point rental rates, which are valued at a discount off future disney deluxe hotel room rates). If you buy RIV and want to try a different resort, you could easily rent your RIV points to pay for rental points at the resort you want...

Typically the payback on a DVC purchase is 10-15 trips (can be less) vs paying disney deluxe room rental rates. So sometime in the late 2020s you will see RIV priced higher.... within 10 years from today, you will see RIV at a higher price than the legacy resorts. Said differently, If your buying resale today, 10 years from today, where you have your payback, you will have a contract that's priced higher than the legacy resorts... That's my conclusion. If your looking for resale price protection for the next 1-5 years, RIV is probably going to be valued less, if your looking for price protection 5-10, I'd bet on RIV...

The "newer" resorts will hang in there longer, such as BLT due to it being a 2060 resort vs 2042...but you get the picture....

For transparency, I purchased RIV during our 2020 new years trip...boy we had no idea 2020 would be the mess that it was then... Was our last "vacation" ... Headed back easter week, cant wait :)
 
Getting some very insightful views on this thread. It's really interesting to see everybody's different outlook or thought process. It won't take many trips for us to recoup our investment even if we don't ever sell as we will be staying for a longer stay and staying in a GV and the next rate we could get on that would be an expense and a half!
 

Looking 10, 15 and 20 years into the future with DVC is a deep rabbit hole. I think the biggest thing over that time is going to be the resale value of 2042 resorts. I believe that in 12-15 years people will be able to closely quantify the cost of DVC vs. cash stays and the resale values of those resorts will start dipping to that dollar figure. That will not only impact 2042 resorts, but all other resorts as owners start looking at moving to longer contracts. Issue there is that when they redo the 2042 resorts with the same restrictions, the resale market as a whole will keep dipping. For example, I think in 15 years people will not want to buy SSR resale because they will not be able to use it at RIV, or the new BCV, BWV, OKW etc... I think at that point, length of contract and location will drive resale value because all resale will be very restricted and it will all be compared to direct cost. Currently, resale is about 60-75% of direct. In 15 years it will probably skew closer to that 60% number for all resorts. Resorts like VGF, POLY, CCV and RIV will have the highest resale, maybe in that order.

This is a long game by Disney to lower resale prices for them to make money on reselling their points. I agree with the concept of a immediate buyback cost from Disney to make the process easy. I am a new owner of 100 RIV points and I have no issue with this as resale did not come into my equation. If I sell my contract for any value that is whipped cream on top for me.
A lot of people on here have been talking about how resale value keeps direct value high. I disagree with this sentiment as I believe they sell a lot of points to emotional buyers with little to no research. They don’t care about resale value. They want the emotion of owning a piece of the magic. I think if they had the ability to market immediate buy back that would more than make up for the lower resale cost.
 
The problem is you're talking about a 50 year contract and people go through many stages of life in those 50 years. Part of the attractiveness for DVC is that historically there has been an exit plan that isn't a huge headache/financial loss. It's not surprising that making that exit plan more difficult turns off some buyers.

10-20 years is a long time. Median duration of home ownership in the US is 13 years so it's not surprising that people expect vacation preferences to change over that time span.


As far as I know Disney does not ROFR resorts that are not sold out. There might be some exception to that rule that I'm not aware of though.
Yes, but the break even point for a DVC membership is not 50 years, or even 25 years. Depending on the contract, it’s in the teens or lower. This can obviously scale up or down depending on the “membership extras” you participate in, such as AP. But just strictly on the savings from rooms, the break even point isn’t that long.

Take Riviera, for example. The buy in cost for a 200 point contract would be $40,200. How long would it take to make up that cost with what you are saving in rooms? Well, in 2021 the MFs are $8.38/pt. So let’s say your family likes to go to Disney for the time around Christmas. A preferred view studio for a week at that time of year in 2021 is $7961 if you booked through Disney. The cost for that week via DVC’s $8.38/pt is $1,215. That’s a difference of $6,746. Divide the $40,200 buy in by $6,746 and it comes to 6 years. Granted, there are a lot of variables at play in this scenario that will affect the break even point: time of year when visiting, size of contract, room type, Disney discounts off of rack rate, MFs increasing each year, etc. And there are also other factors that can advance how quickly break even occurs such as AP discounts and renting out non used points. The point is that typically by year 12 your DVC membership has at least broken even. Fast forward years down the road and the amount being saved by owning DVC (assuming you would have stayed in a deluxe room every year) skyrockets.

I agree that it’s almost impossible to see 25 or 50 years down the road. However, most people have a pretty grasp if they will be able to utilize DVC for the next 10-15 years. That’s all it takes to at least break even. And that's all just the dollars and cents of it...none of that takes into consideration the joy experienced and memories made. As I said in an earlier comment, it's impossible to completely quantify a DVC membership.
 
Yes, but the break even point for a DVC membership is not 50 years, or even 25 years. Depending on the contract, it’s in the teens or lower. This can obviously scale up or down depending on the “membership extras” you participate in, such as AP. But just strictly on the savings from rooms, the break even point isn’t that long.

Take Riviera, for example. The buy in cost for a 200 point contract would be $40,200. How long would it take to make up that cost with what you are saving in rooms? Well, in 2021 the MFs are $8.38/pt. So let’s say your family likes to go to Disney for the time around Christmas. A preferred view studio for a week at that time of year in 2021 is $7961 if you booked through Disney. The cost for that week via DVC’s $8.38/pt is $1,215. That’s a difference of $6,746. Divide the $40,200 buy in by $6,746 and it comes to 6 years. Granted, there are a lot of variables at play in this scenario that will affect the break even point: time of year when visiting, size of contract, room type, Disney discounts off of rack rate, MFs increasing each year, etc. And there are also other factors that can advance how quickly break even occurs such as AP discounts and renting out non used points. The point is that typically by year 12 your DVC membership has at least broken even. Fast forward years down the road and the amount being saved by owning DVC (assuming you would have stayed in a deluxe room every year) skyrockets.

I agree that it’s almost impossible to see 25 or 50 years down the road. However, most people have a pretty grasp if they will be able to utilize DVC for the next 10-15 years. That’s all it takes to at least break even. And that's all just the dollars and cents of it...none of that takes into consideration the joy experienced and memories made. As I said in an earlier comment, it's impossible to completely quantify a DVC membership.
Not to mention I got the $195 per point locked in and plan on buying 1,000 points with the $30 per point incentive. So My price per point for a direct purchase is $165.
 
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I totally agree. I commented on another thread that DVC shouldn't be looked at as an "investment". It's not. It is a luxury purchase for those that foresee years of WDW trips in their future.
I agree that buying a timeshare, even a Disney one, should not be looked at as an investment. But in that same vein, I would discourage this line of thinking as well...
Because the reality is that, once you own, you can always rent points to cover the MFs if you aren't in a position to make those Disney trips for a few years.
Disney states explicitly in both the Product Understanding Checklist and the Public Offering Statement that every DVC owner should not expect to make money back on reselling their contract. The checklist also states that one should not buy in relying on the ability to rent points either.

Pre-2019, I had placed the risk of unrecoverable value from resale/rentals in the same category as no guarantee of theme parks: something that had to legally be stated, but historically untrue and unlikely in the future. That has since changed.

Disney is focused primarily on making the most money possible on their timeshare and are willing to sacrifice the ownership interest to that end. If the resale restrictions weren't clear enough about that, the specific language in the POS should be:
7.2 Amendment of this Agreement. DVCMC, in its sole, absolute and unfettered discretion, may change the terms and conditions of the conditions of this Agreement and the Home Resort Rules and Regulations. These changes may affect an Owner's right to use, exchange and rent the Owner's Ownership Interest and appurtenant Club Membership.

Or in the PUC:
6. You acknowledge that your purchase of an Ownership interest is for your personal use as a vacation experience and not for the purpose of acquiring an income or appreciating investment. Vacation points have no value other than being a vehicle to use your Ownership Interest to reserve accommodations.

I make this point not to disparage Riviera. If I were new to DVC, none of this would matter to me, as it would just be part of my choice to buy into this Disney timeshare system at all. But I make this point to drive home that for every Riviera owner, or any new DVC owner for that matter post 2019, that buys in ok with the resale restrictions, it would be ill-advised to count on the ability to rent out your points as any sort of consolation. It's a false sense of security that belies any purported understanding of what the new timeshare product is today.

With the most anti-owner policy choices made in the history of the Disney timeshare product offering made with the resale restrictions, I not only think of removing the ability to rent contracts a real possibility, I now see it as completely consistent and in keeping with the direction Disney's is heading with their timeshare.
 
The handful of contracts that have sold so far are not the best gauge of the long term value. I think people are to optimistic about the price based on the few sales we have seen so far. I did a 9 night stay and really enjoyed Riviera, but the restrictions are to much to ever justify purchasing it. It’s a 50 year contract that loses a good amount of its power when it’s resold so you’re deep in the hole the minute you purchase it. Which is a bummer because I do love it.

Now I’m sure most people think they‘re going to keep this forever, but life happens. Part of the appeal of DVC to me is to know if I change my mind I have a reasonable chance of reselling it to recoup some of my ‘investment’. When you purchase it resale all your eggs are in one basket. What if the skyliner is not as good as it is now in a few years? What if Topolino’s gets new management and isn’t that good in a year? Disney restaurants have their highs and lows over the years. What happens when there are a lot of resale owners that can only book there. Competition might be fierce at 11 months for desirable dates. Then if you don’t get what you want what are you supposed to do? It’s not like you can just grab one of the easy to get resorts at 7 months? Bank your points and try harder next year I guess?

We are probably seeing Riviera at it’s best right now. HOPEFULLY it will stand the test of time, but it will age and not be the shiny new thing eventually. The staff there is amazing, but when it’s not the newest resort anymore are they going to be able to maintain that.

With all that in mind I wouldn’t be surprised to see contracts going for $60-70 a point in 3 years or so.
 
I am a new owner of 100 RIV points and I have no issue with this as resale did not come into my equation. If I sell my contract for any value that is whipped cream on top for me.
Exactly right. Even if you were to sell, say, 15-20 years from now you would have more than gotten your money's worth (strictly from a cost stand point) from your membership. Even if you only sold your contract for a fraction of what you paid, it would be "gravy" at that point.
 
The checklist also states that one should not buy in relying on the ability to rent points either.

I make this point not to disparage Riviera. If I were new to DVC, none of this would matter to me, as it would just be part of my choice to buy into this Disney timeshare system at all. But I make this point to drive home that for every Riviera owner, or any new DVC owner for that matter post 2019, that buys in ok with the resale restrictions, it would be ill-advised to count on the ability to rent out your points as any sort of consolation. It's a false sense of security that belies any purported understanding of what the new timeshare product is today.
Absolutely, there is no guarantee to be able to rent your points. That ability isn't granted or guaranteed to owners in ANY document. But the truth is that renting points isn't that hard to do. There is even an entire board on this site devoted to it, as well as other rental brokers. So the truth is that if someone needed or wanted to rent their points in the current environment, they would be able to do that. The future is uncertain and the ability to rent points may change, but the past and present has proven that renting points is a viable option for owners.

That being said, I wouldn't buy into DVC with the plan of continuously renting out points as a way to make money (ie buying in as an investment). That would be foolish given the restrictions of timeshares. And as COVID has shown, there is the risk of that "house of cards" to come crashing down. But occasionally renting points (either because you can't use them one year or because you want to use that money to rent Riviera points) shouldn't be an issue.
 
Absolutely, there is no guarantee to be able to rent your points. That ability isn't granted or guaranteed to owners in ANY document. But the truth is that renting points isn't that hard to do. There is even an entire board on this site devoted to it, as well as other rental brokers. So the truth is that if someone needed or wanted to rent their points in the current environment, they would be able to do that. The future is uncertain and the ability to rent points may change, but the past and present has proven that renting points is a viable option for owners.

That being said, I wouldn't buy into DVC with the plan of continuously renting out points as a way to make money (ie buying in as an investment). That would be foolish given the restrictions of timeshares. And as COVID has shown, there is the risk of that "house of cards" to come crashing down. But occasionally renting points (either because you can't use them one year or because you want to use that money to rent Riviera points) shouldn't be an issue.
Renting is listed as permitted in the POS so it is granted in a document.
 
Renting is listed as permitted in the POS so it is granted in a document.
I agree. I was responding to Bing Showei's comment that renting isn't, in essence, guaranteed by the POS. Of course renting isn't guaranteed, but as you stated it is permitted. And it's a viable option for owners that may not be able to use their points...or for owners that want to rent their points in order to rent Riviera points (if those owners bought resale since 2019). I bought BCV resale last year knowing that I have the option to rent my points in order to use that money to rent Riviera points. There may be a time when renting points is really hard to do (as COVID showed us), but the option is typically there.
 
Yes, but the break even point for a DVC membership is not 50 years, or even 25 years. Depending on the contract, it’s in the teens or lower. This can obviously scale up or down depending on the “membership extras” you participate in, such as AP. But just strictly on the savings from rooms, the break even point isn’t that long.

Take Riviera, for example. The buy in cost for a 200 point contract would be $40,200. How long would it take to make up that cost with what you are saving in rooms? Well, in 2021 the MFs are $8.38/pt. So let’s say your family likes to go to Disney for the time around Christmas. A preferred view studio for a week at that time of year in 2021 is $7961 if you booked through Disney. The cost for that week via DVC’s $8.38/pt is $1,215. That’s a difference of $6,746. Divide the $40,200 buy in by $6,746 and it comes to 6 years. Granted, there are a lot of variables at play in this scenario that will affect the break even point: time of year when visiting, size of contract, room type, Disney discounts off of rack rate, MFs increasing each year, etc. And there are also other factors that can advance how quickly break even occurs such as AP discounts and renting out non used points. The point is that typically by year 12 your DVC membership has at least broken even. Fast forward years down the road and the amount being saved by owning DVC (assuming you would have stayed in a deluxe room every year) skyrockets.

I agree that it’s almost impossible to see 25 or 50 years down the road. However, most people have a pretty grasp if they will be able to utilize DVC for the next 10-15 years. That’s all it takes to at least break even. And that's all just the dollars and cents of it...none of that takes into consideration the joy experienced and memories made. As I said in an earlier comment, it's impossible to completely quantify a DVC membership.
While I understand your point, that payback calculation assumes that DVC members would stay deluxe at the cash rates. I feel like there is a significant portion of the DVC customer base that would not stay at a deluxe if they were paying cash (especially a full week on every trip) but they will pay the amortized DVC rate as it's much closer to a moderate.
 
I totally agree. I commented on another thread that DVC shouldn't be looked at as an "investment". It's not. It is a luxury purchase for those that foresee years of WDW trips in their future. It makes sense for those people because it will save money on room reservations over the life of the contract. I am even of the mindset that it shouldn't be financed...it is one of those things that you buy if you can afford it. I didn't even take the future resale value of the contract into consideration when I bought into DVC last year, because I don't intend to ever sell. For what it's worth, I ran this by my financial advisor last year before I bought and he agreed with this outlook.

So all that said, if you can afford a direct Riviera contract and want to continue visiting WDW into the future...then do it! And don't look back. Enjoy the many, many years of future memories. But to the OPs original question, don't buy into Riviera hoping the resale values will hold up. Because the future is uncertain. But if you buy with the intention of not selling, then you won't be disappointed.

PS - I have read so many threads on these boards where people have "spreadsheeted" buying into DVC to death. They try to examine every single little angle to validate buying into DVC. I get it...it's a lot of money. But it is impossible to 100% quantify a DVC membership, IMO. A lot of the value in a DVC membership is driven by emotion. It's fun...and memories...and family together time. If a family can afford it and wants to continue visiting WDW into the future (and saving on deluxe rooms in the process), then do it!!

You are quantifying it when you decide how many points you are buying at what price though. Unless you have an unlimited budget you’re giving up SOMETHING when you hand over the money for your DVC contract. Maybe some trips to Europe, maybe some financial security, maybe the flexibilty to do more non-disney oriented trips, maybe a less desirable resort because of a desire for more points, etc. Sure we can only make educated guesses in our spreadsheets, but with such a large purchase for many people it’s worth spending time doing some analysis. People selling their Riviera contracts now certainly didn’t to come out ahead on their purchase this early.
 
While I understand your point, that payback calculation assumes that DVC members would stay deluxe at the cash rates. I feel like there is a significant portion of the DVC customer base that would not stay at a deluxe if they were paying cash (especially a full week on every trip) but they will pay the amortized DVC rate as it's much closer to a moderate.
That's a fair point. The comparison to moderates in my example is:
- Coronado Springs price is $2764...DVC Riviera is $2533 less (for a deluxe room!). Break even is 16 years.
- Caribben Beach price is $3433...DVC Riviera is $2218 less (for a deluxe room!). Break even is 18 years.

And something to consider in these examples is they are not even utilizing all of the points in the 200 point contract in my example. These Riviera reservations only are 145 points each. If the contract was 150 points instead of 200 points (to more closely match the amount of points being used), the savings experienced versus what would be paid at Coronado Springs would equal a break even in still only 12 years. That same break even versus Caribben beach is 14 years. This is about the timeframe that others have posted on this site...break even is anywhere from 10-15 years for contracts that closely matchup with the amount of points used each year.

So someone who routinely stays at these moderates could buy into Riviera and, comparatively speaking, they would have broke even on their purchase in roughly 13 years or so. And if those people are utilizing the AP discount or other perks the timing increases. The funny thing is that it sounds like I am advocating for Riviera, which I'm not necessarily doing. I personally bought resale last year because I wasn't interested in Riviera and the $20,000 I saved was more interesting to me (and I don't visit enough to need an AP). The point is that, no matter how you decide to buy into DVC, it is paying for itself after the ~13-15 years. After that point, you can sell your contract for a fraction of what you paid and that money will just be gravy.
 
While I understand your point, that payback calculation assumes that DVC members would stay deluxe at the cash rates. I feel like there is a significant portion of the DVC customer base that would not stay at a deluxe if they were paying cash (especially a full week on every trip) but they will pay the amortized DVC rate as it's much closer to a moderate.

I am definitely in this group. Never stayed at a deluxe WDW resort prior to buying DVC, was always a moderate (with free dining :) )stay person. So when I did my cost analysis I was comparing the savings of a moderate with free dining against DVC. When I bought that worked out to roughly the same price and I decided that I would rather stay at a deluxe resort with their better locations than a moderate with free dining. Still think that was the right decision especially since the free dining has been downgraded over time.
 
You are quantifying it when you decide how many points you are buying at what price though. Unless you have an unlimited budget you’re giving up SOMETHING when you hand over the money for your DVC contract. Maybe some trips to Europe, maybe some financial security, maybe the flexibilty to do more non-disney oriented trips, maybe a less desirable resort because of a desire for more points, etc. Sure we can only make educated guesses in our spreadsheets, but with such a large purchase for many people it’s worth spending time doing some analysis. People selling their Riviera contracts now certainly didn’t to come out ahead on their purchase this early.
I think you misunderstood what I was saying. I 100% advocate for everyone to do research and analysis before jumping into DVC. It's a big purchase. But once research is done and it is evident that it saves money on rooms over the long term, people can get into "paralysis by analysis" by analyzing nebulous things that may or may not even matter. It took me about 20 minutes to run all the numbers with my financial advisor to see that DVC makes sense (if, of course, the prospective owner wants to keep visiting WDW into the foreseeable future). My point about not being able to fully quantify a DVC membership is that no numbers can show the emotional value and joy that the members and their families get out of the membership. It's impossible to boil down the membership to just dollars and cents. DVC memberships are much more valuable than the monetary costs.
 
Hi all,

Given the resale restrictions, but taking into account the increasing purchase costs, what’s the view of the resale values at Riviera in 10, 15, 20 or 25 years time?

Give the resale restriction on Riviera, I think the resale price should be less than CCR,POLY,VGF,BLT, but more than AKV, OKW(E) and SSR over 10, 15 and 20 year. At the 25 year mark, I think BLT will probably drop below RIV just because of the remaining years on the contract.

One thing that could help RIV resale prices stay high is when BWV and BCV get sold as new in 2042, how high will they be priced at? At that point RIV resale could be looking like a good option for someone wanting an EPCOT/DHS resort.
 
Renting is listed as permitted in the POS so it is granted in a document.
I wish this were true, but it's not. To grant is to bestow or convey a legal right to do something. Owners are not granted a right to rent their points. It’s currently a practice that’s permitted within nebulous bounds that Disney has tenuously allowed with multiple reservations of rights that allow them to rescind this practice.

I had an extensive conversation with a wonderful guide after the resale restrictions were released. In a more candid moment, she conceded that she personally did not like the restrictions, and she expressed how it wasn't making her job any easier. Then she reverted back to the company talking points and mentioned how Disney is doing what all timeshares have done, nothing different. That this is simply industry standard.

At the core of it, Disney's view is that these contracts are not bought to be sold, rented out, or profited from, but to be enjoyed by a family for the life of the contract. It's a cute sentiment, but had it not been used to justify the anti-owner resale restrictions done only for the benefit of Disney timeshare Developers, I would be more apt to concede this is in keeping with the original concept behind Disney's venture into the timeshare industry. But the resale restrictions are just the latest in a host of profit driven choices by Disney to move more product at a greater margin at the expense of owners.

In light of that, anyone looking to buy into the timeshare system with the safety net of being able to rent under the same terms that exist today, that need this to have the purchase make sense, is doing so inviting far greater risk than what people are suggesting on these boards when they talk about how "you can always rent your points" on the years you don't use them. There is no right granted to do so.
 



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