Riviera 50 yrs vs Boardwalk 22 yrs Value

[zakdavid]

Hi everyone. I am trying to do some math to see if it is a better value to buy boardwalk resale or Riviera direct and wanted to see if ya'll could check my math and let me know if I am overlooking something obvious. Also: I already own at both but I am trying to figure it out before I do another add on. And for the purpose of this, lets ignore the resale restrictions etc..., as this assumes I hold it forever.

So Boardwalk. Right now I see a 50 point contract for 159 a point and it will get 22 years worth of points. So 159 a point / 22 years = 7.22 a point + 2020 dues at 7.36 a point = 14.58 a point in 2020.

Riviera. 50 points. at 188 a point for 50 years = 3.76 a point + 2020 dues = 12.06 a point

Now lets look at a standard studio in Adventure Season.

Boardwalk = 10 points x 14.58 a point =145.80
Riviera = 15 points x 12.06 = 180.9

So based on the above to me it seems that even though the deed is shorter the delta is not as big, but I am thinking I am missing something in the calculation since at the end Riviera would still have 28 years more with only dues to be paid. If I am missing something let me know please . I appreciate the help

 

[DVC Fanatic]

The price fo the BWV resale seems a little high, but understand the premium of a small contract, I closed on a contract at the end of last year for 50 points at $125 a point with double points for 2019. My purchase price divided by 22 year was 5.68, totaling out at around 13.04. Still higher than Riviera, but the contract also ends after 22 years, if I resell it, it can be used at the 14 original resorts by the buyer. The resale restrictions on the new properties still worries me.

 

[sethschroeder]

Cheaper now, cheaper annually, cheaper rooms, but less time.

Took the savings now knowing we will need to buy in in 23 years which is a long time from now.

 

[WhenIsOurNextTrip]

I think part of the missed calculation to factor is the following, which requires assumptions you have to make to get a true comparison.
Assuming you want to buy enough add on points for 5 nights.
You will need 50 pts at boardwalk and 75 points and riviera for the example room.

In order to vacation equally at each resort:
Initial boardwalk cost: 7,600 for 50pt
Initial riviera cost: 14,100 for 75pt

Now for dues:
22 yrs at boardwalk in today’s dollars @ 7.36 = $8,096
22 yrs of riviera dues in today’s dollars @ 8.31= $13,711.50

So to have 22 equal length vacations for 22 years your total costs are(today’s dollars)
Boardwalk: $15,696
Riviera: $27,811.50

So Rivera will cost you $12,115,50 more for equal vacation time.

What’s left now?
You still have 28 years left at riviera. Which if the resale value is more than $161 per point, then you can sell it and come out ahead in the long run(and because we used today’s dollars for dues, the $161 could also be seen as today’s dollars). Is resale for riviera today more than $161?
What happens if the resale value of riviera become depressed due to restrictions? Then you’ve spent a lot more to vacation at riviera.

If it was me. I would add on at boardwalk, because I’d rather stay at boardwalk than riviera. And in 22 years I could either buy the replacement for boardwalk or just enjoy the memories from 22 years of vacationing at the footsteps of Epcot.

 

[DVC Fanatic]

That is a great point. We booked our first reservation for BWV for the beginning of Thanksgiving week 2020. The points for a standard studio and other rooms stretch so far. I was able to get a studio for 4 nights at 11 points per night.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

I think assuming 22 years of a Standard is risky, though, as walkers grow more prevalent each year.

 

[CarolMN]

I know the OP is asking about economic value. However, assuming that one has the discretionary income to choose either resort, for me it comes down to "emotional" value. Where do I want to spend my vacation?

I've said this before, but perhaps it bears repeating:

The good feelings about a great deal are soon forgotten if one isn't able to stay where she wants to stay, when she want to stay there!

zakdavid - which resort has your heart?

 

[TexasChick123]

I know the OP is asking about economic value. However, assuming that one has the discretionary income to choose either resort, for me it comes down to "emotional" value. Where do I want to spend my vacation?

I've said this before, but perhaps it bears repeating:

The good feelings about a great deal are soon forgotten if one isn't able to stay where she wants to stay, when she want to stay there!

zakdavid - which resort has your heart?

Great point. We owned BWV and sold it. Even though those standard rooms were so cheap compared to many other properties, not just RIV, we didn’t like the resort as much as we like many others. Riviera, for example, had rooms more to our liking as well as the resort in general. While we no longer own at BWV, I’d be happy to stay there in the future if we’re out of RIV points and doing an EP-centric trip. Also, we can get a P/G room relatively easily throughout the year, so we’re happy to trade in if we want to stay there. It hasn’t happened yet though that we’ve felt the need to trade in.

The 22 year expiration is a killer for us being in our 30s. I think @CarolMN hit the nail on the head that it’s about emotion a lot of times.

 

[crisi]

I also think its difficult to plan your life around what might be 22 years from now. Twenty two years ago we were deciding to stop infertility treatments and adopt. We were building a house. My brother in law had just gotten married. Now I have two kids in college. We've been through a dozen different jobs. My brother in law died of cancer. Friends that were newlyweds have gotten divorced - some remarried and divorced again. One of my oldest friends had a severely disabled child. One of my daughter's friends committed suicide the week before senior prom. Another spent six months out of school fighting cancer. My daughter - a surprise baby born right after my son was adopted - is at school out on the East Coast, but my 21 year old son shows no signs of moving out of my house.

Try and figure out if this works for you for the next ten years, then ten years from now, look again. There is a fairly significant risk that you won't own ten years from now to make year 22 at all important.

 

[Bing Showei]

We talk a lot about emotional decisions, but if we tease apart all of the things we spend money on day-to-day, I would argue most of them are what would fall into the category of "emotional" (or more accurately, would not fall into the category of "value" driven decisions) and cumulatively our spending on those things probably outweigh any Disney timeshare purchase by a large margin over any 50 years of our lives.

You could tell me that it would be more cost effective to buy all of the ingredients and make my own Samoas* (or caramel deLites as it's referred to here in the Commonwealth) and break down for me the cost per cookie to do so, and I'll understand the math, but that's not worth my time to go that route. It is to some, just not me and my family.

For me personally, I don't enjoy "the hunt" to roll the dice at 7-months. All the pre-planning owning a Disney timeshare requires notwithstanding, I loathe the idea of working so hard for a reservation that is dependent upon atomic clock synchronization at 8:00am exactly 7 months out. I didn't learn that about my ownership until after buying points for the express purpose of using them elsewhere. If I could go back, I would've bought at BWV instead. Ironically, if not for the resale restrictions, I would harbor a lot more regret about having bought the SSR points I own.

If Riviera checked all of my boxes, I would buy there. Could I get a cheaper room elsewhere? Sure. But if I (I as in "me", not "you") wanted to stay there consistently, I would buy there. Given how busy our work lives are, I hate making vacationing even more work. If it means paying a premium (whether that's buying Riviera direct or BWV/BCV at inflated resale costs), I'll choose to do that every time.

I understand that by making them, I could reduce my per cookie cost significantly. But I will buy my Samoas every time. That's just me and my family.

*for those who are interested in doing a per cookie cost analysis: https://www.justataste.com/homemade-samoas-girl-scout-cookies-recipe/

 

[Splash Mountain Fan]

Hi everyone. I am trying to do some math to see if it is a better value to buy boardwalk resale or Riviera direct and wanted to see if ya'll could check my math and let me know if I am overlooking something obvious. Also: I already own at both but I am trying to figure it out before I do another add on. And for the purpose of this, lets ignore the resale restrictions etc..., as this assumes I hold it forever.

So Boardwalk. Right now I see a 50 point contract for 159 a point and it will get 22 years worth of points. So 159 a point / 22 years = 7.22 a point + 2020 dues at 7.36 a point = 14.58 a point in 2020.

Riviera. 50 points. at 188 a point for 50 years = 3.76 a point + 2020 dues = 12.06 a point

Now lets look at a standard studio in Adventure Season.

Boardwalk = 10 points x 14.58 a point =145.80
Riviera = 15 points x 12.06 = 180.9

So based on the above to me it seems that even though the deed is shorter the delta is not as big, but I am thinking I am missing something in the calculation since at the end Riviera would still have 28 years more with only dues to be paid. If I am missing something let me know please . I appreciate the help

I think your cost approach is correct. The maintenance fees are obviously variable and who know which resort‘s will grow at a higher compound rate over time. A couple other good points here...1. if you intend to stay at resort you buy, how does the points per night vary 2. I like the comment about emotional value...

good luck!

 

[Disneybuckeye]

We own at BWV because that is where we want to be. Riviera is pretty, but being able to walk to two parks is a deal breaker for me. I am hoping in 22 years to rebuy our 300 points there plus another hundred due to the increased point chart that would occur, but that remains to be seen.

We are thinking about selling our 100 BR points and buying GF points. Not a fan of the monorail, but the new walking path is right up our alley

With the kind of money DVC costs over the expanse you own saving a few bucks to not be where you want to be is not worth it to me.

Good luck with whatever you decide.

 

[Splash Mountain Fan]

P.S. Assume you know the differences in benefits when buying direct as well.

 

[TexasChick123]

I also think its difficult to plan your life around what might be 22 years from now. Twenty two years ago we were deciding to stop infertility treatments and adopt. We were building a house. My brother in law had just gotten married. Now I have two kids in college. We've been through a dozen different jobs. My brother in law died of cancer. Friends that were newlyweds have gotten divorced - some remarried and divorced again. One of my oldest friends had a severely disabled child. One of my daughter's friends committed suicide the week before senior prom. Another spent six months out of school fighting cancer. My daughter - a surprise baby born right after my son was adopted - is at school out on the East Coast, but my 21 year old son shows no signs of moving out of my house.

Try and figure out if this works for you for the next ten years, then ten years from now, look again. There is a fairly significant risk that you won't own ten years from now to make year 22 at all important.

This is such a great post. 10 years ago, I had graduated law school, passed the bar exam, and had just gotten my first attorney job at the DA’s office. I was starting my career and so excited and couldn’t wait to be a career prosecutor. Fast forward to today, and I stay home with kids now and work part-time not in the legal world because we need flexibility. If you would’ve told me that 10 years ago, I would’ve laughed and said you’re crazy. It really is true that we cannot predict the future. We sold BWV and bought RIV more than anything because we liked the resort more. I am a planner, but I know life is unpredictable. I try to make the best decision with the information I have. There are many other things that have happened in the last 10 years, but the job situation is probably still the biggest shock to me.

 

[Sandisw]

As someone who did the swap, I think you do need to consider a few other situations.

1. How important are those extra years? For me, important and figured the cost to replace points in 2042 would far exceed any savings now.

2. SV vs SV always. I have had trouble getting SV studios during certain times of the year While we don’t know if SV at RIV will be as elusive as SV at BWV, if you are forced to book garden view, then the numbers change, Does this matter to you? It did to me.

3. How important is it staying exclusively at your home resort? Are you buying to only stay there? For me, we don’t so even owning RiV with a higher points chart, if we wanted to conserve points, we could always stay elsewhere when needed.

4. How important are the room set ups, especially at studios? RIV studios are more points, but are larger and have a split bath situation. If you are traveling with more than 2, is that something that you see as a plus?

5. Resort of choice. Which resort would you rather be at if you can’t get anything else? And, are future resorts of importance to you?

Only you can decide which resort fits all of your needs. Yes, if you want to forget that RIV has an extra 28 years, and only consider To 2042 you can. I will say, that most likely, even at that point, you could sell RIV, even with restrictions, if you want out of DVC, and it will be worth something. So, you may get some of your initial costs back.

Good luck!

 

[zakdavid]

I know the OP is asking about economic value. However, assuming that one has the discretionary income to choose either resort, for me it comes down to "emotional" value. Where do I want to spend my vacation?

I've said this before, but perhaps it bears repeating:

The good feelings about a great deal are soon forgotten if one isn't able to stay where she wants to stay, when she want to stay there!

zakdavid - which resort has your heart?

Definitely boardwalk. But as you said trying to also figure out the value. Doesn't mean I won't listen to my heart but the money guy in me needs to at least know haha.

 

[zakdavid]

P.S. Assume you know the differences in benefits when buying direct as well.

Yah I'm an existing member so I have my blue card already

 

[zakdavid]

As someone who did the swap, I think you do need to consider a few other situations.

1. How important are those extra years? For me, important and figured the cost to replace points in 2042 would far exceed any savings now.

2. SV vs SV always. I have had trouble getting SV studios during certain times of the year While we don’t know if SV at RIV will be as elusive as SV at BWV, if you are forced to book garden view, then the numbers change, Does this matter to you? It did to me.

3. How important is it staying exclusively at your home resort? Are you buying to only stay there? For me, we don’t so even owning RiV with a higher points chart, if we wanted to conserve points, we could always stay elsewhere when needed.

4. How important are the room set ups, especially at studios? RIV studios are more points, but are larger and have a split bath situation. If you are traveling with more than 2, is that something that you see as a plus?

5. Resort of choice. Which resort would you rather be at if you can’t get anything else? And, are future resorts of importance to you?

Only you can decide which resort fits all of your needs. Yes, if you want to forget that RIV has an extra 28 years, and only consider To 2042 you can. I will say, that most likely, even at that point, you could sell RIV, even with restrictions, if you want out of DVC, and it will be worth something. So, you may get some of your initial costs back.

Good luck!

Thank you for this. I think it's an excellent point, and I wound up adding the extra points at Riviera as well. The value left on the contract post 2042 whether for more use for me or by putting it for sale is something I missed.

And the pull down bed + split bathroom is great!

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Definitely boardwalk. But as you said trying to also figure out the value. Doesn't mean I won't listen to my heart but the money guy in me needs to at least know haha.

Then post #4 outlines why it is actually ok to go with what you want to! And it's not including the monetary benefit of having the $12K not tied up in DVC. But it will mean that if you still want to be visiting Disney with a timeshare that you'll be shopping again in 2041/2042. As mentioned, that's a long time away and you never know what changes will happen in the next 2 decades.

And I see you did the opposite.

 

[ray3127]

First, I agree with the comments about the emotion of the decision and buying where you are most happy.

In order to vacation equally at each resort:
Initial boardwalk cost: 7,600 for 50pt
Initial riviera cost: 14,100 for 75pt

Now for dues:
22 yrs at boardwalk in today’s dollars @ 7.36 = $8,096
22 yrs of riviera dues in today’s dollars @ 8.31= $13,711.50

So to have 22 equal length vacations for 22 years your total costs are(today’s dollars)
Boardwalk: $15,696
Riviera: $27,811.50

So Rivera will cost you $12,115,50 more for equal vacation time.

...but I'm going to add that from a strictly financial standpoint, this is the beginning of the way to do it.

The real financial question is: Come 2042, would you rather have 28 additional years at Riviera, or the cash saved from buying Boardwalk?

It's true that in 2042 you have 28 more years of you buy Riviera. But because you can stay at Boardwalk for fewer points every year, the upfront and annual costs are both cheaper (as outlined above).

A proper financial analysis would have you investing this initial difference as well as the annual dues savings.

I've run these numbers, and my conservative estimates (giving Riviera the benefit of the doubt with annual dues increases, and using very low annual rates of return) show that in order for Riviera be an equal value to my pile of cash in 2042, it needs to be worth upwards of $400 per point (in 2042 dollars). This is quite possible given general (and Disney) inflation.

My conclusion is I'd rather have the cash than a 28-year commitment in 2042. I can re-buy in if I need/want to, but since I really have no idea where my life will be in 2042 (as many great posts above discuss), I'd rather have the flexibility of cash.

Again, all of that said, if you love Riviera or don't like Boardwalk, then this cutthroat financial analysis doesn't matter as much. We are planning on giving the place a serious look in April, as it looks very appealing. I'm not saying buying there is a bad/illogical decision.

I just wanted to add the point about investing the savings, because that opportunity cost needs to be accounted for.