Resale listing prices have dropped

[DVCcurious]

I've been watching prices for about a year and a half. Late 2012 still had lots of listings in the $60-70 range for most properties (excluding BC, BLT). This past summer it was hard to find anything below $75.

I just noticed that there are at least 2 listings out there for $60 per point (nothing in the 50s) and a decent number of listings for less than $70 per point. This summer trying to find points in the 60's was like trying to find Bigfoot, but now it looks like prices have dropped.

I don't know why this is, I just thought it was interesting.

Is now the time to buy or will prices keep dropping? Who has the crystal ball!

I'm holding out for when Polynesian points hit $80 on resale, then I'm buying in!

 

[z28wiz]

Polynesian won't hit 80 per point for a very very long time I would guess. Starting price will be 160 per point or higher.

Sent from my iPhone using DISBoards

 

[ready123go]

I've been watching prices for about a year and a half. Late 2012 still had lots of listings in the $60-70 range for most properties (excluding BC, BLT). This past summer it was hard to find anything below $75.

I just noticed that there are at least 2 listings out there for $60 per point (nothing in the 50s) and a decent number of listings for less than $70 per point. This summer trying to find points in the 60's was like trying to find Bigfoot, but now it looks like prices have dropped.

I don't know why this is, I just thought it was interesting.

Is now the time to buy or will prices keep dropping? Who has the crystal ball!

I'm holding out for when Polynesian points hit $80 on resale, then I'm buying in!

Haven't kept track of the market lately. Thanks for your post!

 

[DVC Dude]

Your data sample size is too small as there are blips up and down.

The only thing happening now is that annual dies notices are out and some people may want to sell fast before the dues are due.

Poly will probably NEVER be priced in the 80s

 

[tjkraz]

I'm holding out for when Polynesian points hit $80 on resale, then I'm buying in!

LOL. Good luck waiting on that one!!

I can't see anyone buying-in for what is likely $160+ per point, and then being so desperate that they would unload for half of that. Maybe when there are only 20-25 years left on the contract...around the year 2040.

 

[Nabas]

I've been tracking listings closely since April on several sites. In general, each resort has performed differently.

BLT is as high as ever, asking prices are up about $10/point since April. Current median asking at BLT is $105/point.

BCV is finally cooling off and prices are retreating but only just a bit. The number of listings is up considerably since bottoming out in July. Still, median asking at BCV is $98/point, over $20/point higher than it was in April.

AKV, VWL, and BWV have been retreating in price, with the median asking prices at all three around $83/point. That's up about $5/point from where they were in April but down a few dollars per point from their peak.

Both SSR and OKW are back to where they were in April.

Prices are rather deceptive through. There definitely was a period around late summer when lots of stripped contracts were being listed for high prices. That trend seems to have subsided.

Available listings are way up at all the resorts. Many resorts are showing double the number of listings compared to April. Many listings are growing long in the tooth. Contracts with few 2014 points in particular are not selling.

2011 and 2012 represented a period of unusually low DVC prices. I wouldn't be surprised if the DVC market stabilizes at current prices.

One more thing. The number of available listings at SSR, AKV, and BLT are higher than in some time. Looks like recent DVC buyers (excluding VGF, these are the 3 newest WDW resorts) are continuing to sell their memberships at a steady pace.

Note that SSR, AKV, and BLT more than doubled the number of DVC rooms in a relatively short time.

 

[NHTikiBeckie]

You'll be waiting a very long time for 80 per point at Poly.

 

[DVCcurious]

I can't see anyone buying-in for what is likely $160+ per point, and then being so desperate that they would unload for half of that. Maybe when there are only 20-25 years left on the contract...around the year 2040.

Two words: Animal Kingdom Lodge

Points they're sold for like 145 per point and now their being offered for resail at $75 pretty consistently. I think the intro offer at AKL was 135 per point not to long ago back in 2008 when Kidani Village first opened.

Whenever the first recession hits after Poly goes on sale you will see points in the $80s and I will be buying. If my calculations are correct we should have a recession sometime between 2018-2023 and that's when I'll be jumping in with both feet!

 

[Dean]

I've been watching prices for about a year and a half. Late 2012 still had lots of listings in the $60-70 range for most properties (excluding BC, BLT). This past summer it was hard to find anything below $75.

I just noticed that there are at least 2 listings out there for $60 per point (nothing in the 50s) and a decent number of listings for less than $70 per point. This summer trying to find points in the 60's was like trying to find Bigfoot, but now it looks like prices have dropped.

I don't know why this is, I just thought it was interesting.

Is now the time to buy or will prices keep dropping? Who has the crystal ball!

I'm holding out for when Polynesian points hit $80 on resale, then I'm buying in!

IMO it's the last year or so that's been the anomaly, not the reduction in prices. I fully expect them to be at or below what they were a couple of years ago including SSR below $50 relatively soon. It is my opinion that the VGF hype has been a larger factor than the economy.

Two words: Animalkingdom Lodge

They all sold for like 160 per point and now their being offered at $75 pretty consistently.

Whenever the first recession hits after Poly goes on sale you will see points in the $80s and I will be buying.

The initial offering was in the low 90's IIRC.

 

[DVC Dude]

Two words: Animal Kingdom Lodge

Points they're sold for like 145 per point and now their being offered for resail at $75 pretty consistently. I think the intro offer at AKL was 135 per point not to long ago back in 2008 when Kidani Village first opened.

Whenever the first recession hits after Poly goes on sale you will see points in the $80s and I will be buying. If my calculations are correct we should have a recession sometime between 2018-2023 and that's when I'll be jumping in with both feet!

You are 100% uninformed. You absolutely can not compare AKV to VGF and make an assumption of future price.

Animal Kingdom Villas is almost 5x larger than VGF so the demand for VGF will be significantly more than AK

VGF has low availability + high demand = high price

AKV has high availability and medium demand = lower prices

I would guess the Poly will be similar to VGF and some predict even more in demand.

If you look at VGC it started to sell at $100pp from Disney and resales are now $130pp. I would assume VGF would mirror VGF too.

If you wait another 10 years to buy - you just missed out on a lot. For example, if you buy VGF now at $150 and rent all your points for 10 years for $13pp, then your price would effectively be $150 - 80 = $70pp.

 

[mort1331]

IMO it's the last year or so that's been the anomaly, not the reduction in prices. I fully expect them to be at or below what they were a couple of years ago including SSR below $50 relatively soon. It is my opinion that the VGF hype has been a larger factor than the economy.

Do you really think SSR to be below 50 soon? What is soon, because I will add quick if it does. Been offering some in low 60s but no bites, so would love to see 50s.

 

[Nabas]

Do you really think SSR to be below 50 soon? What is soon, because I will add quick if it does. Been offering some in low 60s but no bites, so would love to see 50s.

No one can say with any certainty which way any market will go, certainly not for something as volatile as timeshares.

With that acknowledged, predicting future prices depends on various market forces and essentially guessing which ones you think will dominate in the future.

In general, 2013 was viewed as a better economy than the years before. This resulted in improved real estate prices, and DVC is essentially real estate.

There were WDW-specific events that affected prices.

The opening of VGF generated interest in DVC, having been the first opening of a WDW DVC in 4 years (BLT).

In February, Disney offered "free tickets" for BWV purchases. Presumably, Disney was sitting on excess inventory that it wanted to clear. It appears the incentive was so successful that not only did BWV once again sell out, but a wait list formed.

In March, Disney raised prices across the board to $130/point, which caused wait lists at several "Classic Resorts" and folks jumped in to lock at old prices.

All these events impacted the DVC resale market and resale prices were on the way up across the board by May.

The market has calmed down considerably since this spring and summer. Inventories are way up. Normally, high inventories means lower prices.

Regarding SSR, it's by far Disney's largest DVC and its location means it's relatively distant to all the parks, factors that make it less desirable.

Sales started there 10 years ago and the resale market continues to be dominated by SSR properties. Currently, there are over 150 SSR listings representing approximately 30,000 points.

On the plus side, SSR has one of the lowest Maintenance Fees (MF). If the 3-year trend with BLT's MF continues much longer, no other resort will come close to SSR's MF.

All things considered, if inventories continue to rise, it's difficult to imagine SSR prices not declining further.

A couple of years ago, some savvy buyers were getting SSR for under $50/point.

For SSR, prices below $60/point are certainly within reach in 2014. There just has to be enough anxious sellers entering the market.

No one can know with any certainty if that will happen.

 

[Kidanifan08]

Two words: Animal Kingdom Lodge

Points they're sold for like 145 per point and now their being offered for resail at $75 pretty consistently. I think the intro offer at AKL was 135 per point not to long ago back in 2008 when Kidani Village first opened.

Whenever the first recession hits after Poly goes on sale you will see points in the $80s and I will be buying. If my calculations are correct we should have a recession sometime between 2018-2023 and that's when I'll be jumping in with both feet!

Actually, we bought AKV in Oct 2008 for around $96 or $98 per point. So if I sold today for $70, I would lose less than $7k, which is far less than what I would have spent on the trips we have taken in the past 5 years. I would be quite comfortable with selling our points in the 70's at this point in time.

OTOH, Poly is going to start at $160+, and it will take about 60-70% more points for the same 1 week stay as my AKV points will still buy. I think that they are shooting for a 2015 opening for Poly. So, any time during the next recession that you anticipate would be only 3-8 years after purchase. Most of those selling will have mortgages and will be in no position to sell for half of what they paid. Just look at BCV and BWV selling for more than their initial offering with only 29 years left on the RTU. It will be a very long time (even with a recession) before Poly is less than $100-120/pt.

There is definitely more inventory now than there was just 6 months ago, so there is a little more room for negotiation with sellers. That probably helps with getting a better deal than just 6 months ago. But, I don't think sellers now are as motivated to sell as they were 2 years ago, so they are probably less likely to accept a really low offer.

 

[Dean]

Do you really think SSR to be below 50 soon? What is soon, because I will add quick if it does. Been offering some in low 60s but no bites, so would love to see 50s.

Yes I do, likely within the next 12-15 months and possibly as soon as 4-6 months but it might be mostly stripped or larger contracts initially. As I said, I believe the GF hype was the largest factor in prices over the economy itself. It's possible this won't happen until the Poly has come and gone from a hype standpoint. I think we'll see low 40's or possibly even below in 3 years to just over. As for being rejected, it only takes one to accept your offer and regardless of predictions, resales available are increasing and prices are slowly coming down. As long as you're not looking for something in high demand (small, BCV, BLT, VG, etc); it's likely worth waiting for most people to the point that renting a trip or 2 then buying later is likely the best choice for some.

 

[DougEMG]

I sold one of my contracts recently because I was able to sell with a nice profit. I'm certainly tempted to sell a few more contracts were I can make a profit on the sale. So while I'm a seller, I'm a seller only if the price is right and I'm probably not the only one doing that.

If prices drop back down to 2011/2012 prices I'll turn back into a buyer, but I don't think we'll see any significant drop in prices until the US goes into a recession.

 

[tjkraz]

Two words: Animal Kingdom Lodge

Points they're sold for like 145 per point and now their being offered for resail at $75 pretty consistently. I think the intro offer at AKL was 135 per point not to long ago back in 2008 when Kidani Village first opened.

Whenever the first recession hits after Poly goes on sale you will see points in the $80s and I will be buying. If my calculations are correct we should have a recession sometime between 2018-2023 and that's when I'll be jumping in with both feet!

The initial offering price for AKV was $101 per point less an $8 incentive. That was in February 2007.

In mid-2009, when the recession began to take hold, net prices dipped as low as $91 per point...possibly lower with DCL shipboard incentives or other special circumstances.

IMO, those direct prices play the most significant role in pricing. Mid-$70s became a popular resale price point for AKV because some owners who had purchased a few years prior in the low $90s were able to accept that price and still settle their outstanding mortgage at closing. There were enough sellers in that circumstance to set a price point.

Poly points will never be sold direct at rates anything close to $90 per point. And Poly DVC appears to be significantly smaller than AKV. I think you have a long wait ahead of you...

 

[PacoDF]

And what do you think of the impact the raise of $5 of direct prices will have in resale prices?

 

[Dean]

And what do you think of the impact the raise of $5 of direct prices will have in resale prices?

Mostly slow the decline.

 

[DVCcurious]

Animal Kingdom hasn't been under 145 per point direct from Disney for several years. There are a ton of AKL resale listings. I am asserting that SOME of those people who are listing their AKL for $80 or less bought in at prices above $140.

Sure, some people bought AKL for less than $100, but not everybody. It's these people I'm focussing my analyses on.

If there are people who paid $145 for AKL and are selling them for $75 resale, then it's entirely possible that people who pay $160 for Polynesian will be willing to sell for $80 in a few years.

I'm not saying it will be immediate, I'm saying it will be during the first recession of the 2017-2021 president's term. We've had recessions during every president's term: George Bush recession 1991-1992, Bill Clinton dot-com bubble recession 2000-2002, George W Bush Real Estate Bubble recession 2007-2009, Barack Obama recession still hasn't happened but I'd be shocked if we go 8 years without a recession.

At some point after Poly has been on sale for a few years there will be a recession and THAT is when I will be picking up the pieces of people's shattered dreams for pennies on the dollar!

 

[Paging Tom Morrow]

Two words: Animal Kingdom Lodge

Two words????