Resale listing prices have dropped

[Minniesgal]

Nope, I think I'm being entirely reasonable here. Now clearly I'm alone on an island but I'll try to explain my reasoning. What I'm doing is trying to predict future prices in light of a future recession. What everyone else is doing is saying "BLT prices are still above $100!" and they're completely ignoring the fact that we have the Booming economy right now. We have record high stock prices and skyrocketing housing prices with massive employment growth. What happens to resale prices during the next recession? That's my point. In the next recession you will see prices drop significantly, just like after the housing bubble burst that caused our most recent recession. Assuming that our economy will stay this strong in the future is completely illogical.

Recovering/ recovered economy perhaps but hardly booming!

 

[goneviral]

IMO it's the last year or so that's been the anomaly, not the reduction in prices. I fully expect them to be at or below what they were a couple of years ago including SSR below $50 relatively soon. It is my opinion that the VGF hype has been a larger factor than the economy.

I have held this opinion for a while now as well. I do think that the same issue will be replicated as Polynesian grows closer to reality.

 

[Dean]

And don't forget, a DVC guide can sometimes get you reservations otherwise unavailable for your first booking. I know that is what tipped the scale for us into deciding to buy.

That can be a VERY expensive single trip if one ends up paying roughly double to get that single reservation. It might be enough to justify a retail purchase for some situations but not for most.

First, EVERY product "is not a product where people wake up in the morning and say "I'm going to buy XXXX today"!"

Sure you HAVE to buy food, but what type of food are you going to buy? Coke is spending millions and millions of dollars to "convince you to buy" a Coke with your lunch. Buffalo Wild Wings is spending millions of dollars to "convince you to buy" their wings when you decide what to eat today. Yes you need food, but someone needs to convince you to buy their food. As for everything other than food: you don't need a TV, computer, phone, etc. Someone had to "convince you to buy" that product. That's what advertising is all about.

But timeshares are entirely different than all of those. Even for Disney it's often an emotional decision even for those that investigate through DIS or similar. No one needs a timeshare or even to go on vacation, it's a luxury choice that we all make in some way.

Now let's talk about your second comment: "In that vein, trying to pass judgement on "demand" for DVC is nearly impossible."


I may not know a lot, but I know a lot about economics. EVERY product has an estimable demand. I guarantee Disney knows precisely what demand for DVC is every price point and with every promotion they can offer.

Let me put it to you another way: If passing judgement on "demand" for DVC is nearly impossible.....then the logical question is: How does Disney figure out how to price their product? Price is a function of Supply and Demand, and if it's impossible to estimate Demand then you would have no way to figure out the price point.

If you think DVC has made good choices in planning and has this down, you certainly have a different opinion that I and I think most here on DIS. They do have info but they do not give it out. They have over estimated on a number of resorts, certainly VB, HH, SSR, AKV and VWL as the minimum. Market forces don't work very well in timeshares, it's too fringe of a product.

 

[dizfan]

From what I have seen and read, it is typical to see a decline in resale prices this time of year.

More people decide to sell this time of year because they received their dues statement recently.