Reaching a price equilibrium?

[Minniesgal]

I agree. In addition, I don't think staying @ VGF on a regular basis for a family vacation appeals to everyone. I view it more as a couple's retreat, stay with older kids, or occasional stay during the holidays. Other resorts are more appealing to me to stay at on a regular basis although VGF looks very nice. Contracts seems to be staying on the market longer, small contracts aren't moving so fast, there seem to be tons of SSR contracts. I think seller's still have high asking prices in mind but many buyer's are waiting for that great deal to come along vs. a few months ago. I contracted on my small BWV contract back in March for $65/pt. Direct prices were $130 so although stripped of 2013 points, it was a good deal for me. Now, BWV is in the $80's stripped or not. I think people who want to save a bit buying resale are buying although not as fast and there are still those holding out for that great deal. Doesn't appear to be quite as much of a seller's market IMO

And I think that is part of the problem with VGF sales. A lot of people bought small add ones to existing contracts to tag a few nights on to a vacation staying at other resorts for the most of their stay. I think DVC saw a lot more buyers buying in the 40-60 point range than usual.

 

[McCrae]

According to dvcnews.com, VGF sales are lagging:

http://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-pr...-concerned-about-recent-grand-floridian-sales

Does today's article indicate that direct DVC prices have finally reached their limit?

What impact will that have on the resale market?

I wonder if the Govt shut down and talk of falling into another recession is behind this..... Maybe it put people off buying?

 

[Nabas]

I wonder if the Govt shut down and talk of falling into another recession is behind this..... Maybe it put people off buying?

I think what has hurt VGF the most is the price.

Comparing a room at the Contemporary to a room at the Grand Floridian, the Grand Floridian has about a 15-20% premium.

However, taking into account points/night and MF, a room at VGF has about a 50% premium over BLT.

For example, a week in a Standard View Studio for spring break:

- BLT: 139 points X $4.50/point = $626
- BVW: 108 points X $5.84/point = $630
- AKV: 116 points X $5.67/point = $658
- VWL: 127 points X $5.79/point = $735
- BCV: 134 points X $5.65/point = $757
- VGF: 169 points X $5.41/point = $914

Please recall that BLT's sales were brisk even though it opened in 2009 in the middle of a recession. BLT's high purchase price could be partially justified because, after the buy-in, it is actually cheaper to stay at BLT than other Deluxe Resorts.

With both the GF vs. Contemporary having been around for decades, the 15-20% premium should be based on historical data. Over the years, Disney should have adjusted rack rates to reflect what guests were willing to pay in order for Disney to reach equilibrium between the two hotels.

By pricing VGF at a 50% premium over BLT, it seems to me DVD completely ignored what price could be supported by historical data.

Disney simply overpriced VGF.

 

[SFlaDisneyfans]

I think what has hurt VGF the most is the price.

Comparing a room at the Contemporary to a room at the Grand Floridian, the Grand Floridian has about a 15-20% premium.

However, taking into account points/night and MF, a room at VGF has about a 50% premium over BLT.

For example, a week in a Standard View Studio for spring break:

- BLT: 139 points X $4.50/point = $626
- BVW: 108 points X $5.84/point = $630
- AKV: 116 points X $5.67/point = $658
- VWL: 127 points X $5.79/point = $735
- BCV: 134 points X $5.65/point = $757
- VGF: 169 points X $5.41/point = $914

Please recall that BLT's sales were brisk even though it opened in 2009 in the middle of a recession. BLT's high purchase price could be partially justified because, after the buy-in, it is actually cheaper to stay at BLT than other Deluxe Resorts.

With both the GF vs. Contemporary having been around for decades, the 15-20% premium should be based on historical data. Over the years, Disney should have adjusted rack rates to reflect what guests were willing to pay in order for Disney to reach equilibrium between the two hotels.

By pricing VGF at a 50% premium over BLT, it seems to me DVD completely ignored what price could be supported by historical data.

Disney simply overpriced VGF.

This is leading me to wonder if there will be a sizeable market of VGF resales of 1st time contracts (not small addons) as new owners become aware of the point price discrepancy of VGF versus other WDW DVC resorts and look to sell VGF contracts for more cost efficient resale contracts.

 

[DougEMG]

For all VGF has to offer and it is a great resort, the major negatives to me are:

1. High buy in price ($150)
2. Higher annual dues ($5.41) vs BLT $4.50
3. High point cost to book rooms (about 25% more than BLT rooms)

I was a little tempted to buy after seeing the model suites, but after sleeping on it, decided that the high price, dues and point costs didn't make it a very good deal for us.

The biggest issue for me was the point cost. I could stay in a BWV 1 bedroom standard view for the same points as a standard view studio at VGF and no matter how nice the studio is, it can't beat the space of a 1 bedroom.

 

[montrealdisneylovers]

I think what has hurt VGF the most is the price.

Comparing a room at the Contemporary to a room at the Grand Floridian, the Grand Floridian has about a 15-20% premium.

However, taking into account points/night and MF, a room at VGF has about a 50% premium over BLT.

For example, a week in a Standard View Studio for spring break:

- BLT: 139 points X $4.50/point = $626
- BVW: 108 points X $5.84/point = $630
- AKV: 116 points X $5.67/point = $658
- VWL: 127 points X $5.79/point = $735
- BCV: 134 points X $5.65/point = $757
- VGF: 169 points X $5.41/point = $914

Please recall that BLT's sales were brisk even though it opened in 2009 in the middle of a recession. BLT's high purchase price could be partially justified because, after the buy-in, it is actually cheaper to stay at BLT than other Deluxe Resorts.

With both the GF vs. Contemporary having been around for decades, the 15-20% premium should be based on historical data. Over the years, Disney should have adjusted rack rates to reflect what guests were willing to pay in order for Disney to reach equilibrium between the two hotels.

By pricing VGF at a 50% premium over BLT, it seems to me DVD completely ignored what price could be supported by historical data.

Disney simply overpriced VGF.

The fact that BLT sold briskly in the midst of a recession makes me think that the resale restrictions may be starting to have an impact on direct sales.

VGF is the first DVC to start selling new since the resale restrictions were implemented. Prior to this, the resale value held up quite well and I think that many new people were more willing to chance a purchase knowing that they could sell easily if they decided the product was not quite what they expected.

At such a high price point, people must be asking questions or researching resale before buying. If they see that the value will drop substantially, they may rethink such a large purchase. Although we all know that DVC is basically a glorified timeshare, the resale restrictions make it appear as more of a timeshare than a "club" even to the newbie.

 

[NoleFan]

It will be interesting to see how they roll things out for Poly- $$$/pt & point chart. Although, the Poly seems to round up quite the demand, many buyers still take $$ & point chart into account. If the overall cost is too high, it can still out weigh the demand...

 

[MiramarQE]

It will be interesting to see how they roll things out for Poly- $$$/pt & point chart. Although, the Poly seems to round up quite the demand, many buyers still take $$ & point chart into account. If the overall cost is too high, it can still out weigh the demand...

Poly DVC will have many advantages over VGF:

1. You're not in an "out-building" off to the side and away from the main resort. Even the over-water Bungalows will have reasonable access to all the Poly amenities. (Thje VGF aren't as bad as BCV relative to the main resort location - but it's close. - with apologies to BCV owner, of course!)
2. The Poly has a large, entrenched fan base - my first trip was in 1982, you have people making an annual trek there that they have made for 30 years! Lots of people have been waiting a LONG time for this.
3. The Poly takes you away (for you Jimmy Buffett fans - to that "one particular harbor") - the GF just takes your cash.

I expect Poly asking price at $180/point, with studios starting 20% higher (minimum 150 pts/wk, 180 if you see any water) than VGF.

 

[NoleFan]

I agree that the Poly is highly desirable & appeals to many. However, some buyers will only pay so much $$ pp & nightly points. At a certain price point, it prices itself out. I love the Poly but would only pay so much $$ & points to stay there.

 

[SugarLoaf]

Poly DVC will have many advantages over VGF:

1. You're not in an "out-building" off to the side and away from the main resort. Even the over-water Bungalows will have reasonable access to all the Poly amenities. (Thje VGF aren't as bad as BCV relative to the main resort location - but it's close. - with apologies to BCV owner, of course!)
2. The Poly has a large, entrenched fan base - my first trip was in 1982, you have people making an annual trek there that they have made for 30 years! Lots of people have been waiting a LONG time for this.
3. The Poly takes you away (for you Jimmy Buffett fans - to that "one particular harbor") - the GF just takes your cash.

I expect Poly asking price at $180/point, with studios starting 20% higher (minimum 150 pts/wk, 180 if you see any water) than VGF.

I have to say I feel the total opposite. And would assume that the Poly-lovers would feel the total opposite of how I feel lol. But when I stay at the Grand Floridian vs. the Polynesian (which I only have once, because I didn't care for it in comparison), I feel like i'm in a totally different world, of grand victorian times. I just love it.

I have also stayed in the outer buildings of the main hotel, and find the walk from the villas to be about the same. It feels very close, and it was a very easy walk. I actually liked it even better, because I found myself going through the front of the resort a lot more rather than the back. And the side door by the pool and stairs was very convenient too. I also loved being right next to the terrace and Beaches pool bar.

 

[DVC Dude]

Poly DVC will have many advantages over VGF:

I expect Poly asking price at $180/point, with studios starting 20% higher (minimum 150 pts/wk, 180 if you see any water) than VGF.

Ouch...that price prediction just hurt my eyes

 

[Minniesgal]

Ouch...that price prediction just hurt my eyes

Many predicted VGF would start at $200 a point....

 

[McCrae]

For all VGF has to offer and it is a great resort, the major negatives to me are:

1. High buy in price ($150)
2. Higher annual dues ($5.41) vs BLT $4.50
3. High point cost to book rooms (about 25% more than BLT rooms)

Am not sure that these are big issues for people that have the money and desire to stay at VGF.

If you have concerns about price/value for money you wouldn't stay at the GF, plenty of other good cheaper options available.

Next months sales figures could easily bounce back....

 

[McCrae]

Poly DVC will have many advantages over VGF:

1. You're not in an "out-building" off to the side and away from the main resort. Even the over-water Bungalows will have reasonable access to all the Poly amenities. (Thje VGF aren't as bad as BCV relative to the main resort location - but it's close. - with apologies to BCV owner, of course!)
2. The Poly has a large, entrenched fan base - my first trip was in 1982, you have people making an annual trek there that they have made for 30 years! Lots of people have been waiting a LONG time for this.
3. The Poly takes you away (for you Jimmy Buffett fans - to that "one particular harbor") - the GF just takes your cash.

I expect Poly asking price at $180/point, with studios starting 20% higher (minimum 150 pts/wk, 180 if you see any water) than VGF.

No way will the Poly be priced more than VGF. The VGF and GF are the flagship resorts and will continue to be priced at a premium over other resorts.

 

[deploylinux]

I was never seriously considering VGF points, but I did research it to see how much of a premium it was compared to my recent aulani point purchase.

I could see some buyers justifying the initial purchase price and the higher maintenance cost, but the per-night point increase seemed insane value wise...My initial reaction was that if I wanted to be able to afford the VGF per night point costs, I'd have to buy points at a cheap resort and settle for booking VGF at 7 months....paying the very high initial $$ cost and the high point per night costs just didn't wash.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

I've noticed on a site that aggregates listings from 4 brokerages that the AKV listings have climbed from 2 pages to 5 pages in the last month or two. More supply typically suggests downward pressure on price in most markets, it'll be interesting to see if that's the case going forward.

Might you be willing to share that link? Sounds like if would be very helpful to me now in trying to sell.

This is what we're waiting for - people that are looking to sell to cover their Christmas gift bills.

With VGF hype dying, Poly announcement 18 months away and Christmas gift bills coming due, we're betting we'll see a Jan 2014 "correction" in resale selling prices.

In other words, if I'm not in a rush to sell, better to wait until Jan/Feb?

 

[MiramarQE]

In other words, if I'm not in a rush to sell, better to wait until Jan/Feb?

I think that might be the WORST time to sell - more supply (January anyway - again - people looking for cash to cover Christmas bills and not wanting to pay dues) and less demand (buyers will be facing Christmas bills too!)

Better as a seller to wait 'till Mar/Apr

 

[MiramarQE]

I have to say I feel the total opposite. And would assume that the Poly-lovers would feel the total opposite of how I feel lol. But when I stay at the Grand Floridian vs. the Polynesian (which I only have once, because I didn't care for it in comparison), I feel like i'm in a totally different world, of grand victorian times. I just love it.

That's one of the nice things about the diversity of resort experiences at Disney - I just think of the GF as too sterile - too much white!

I guess we aren't in competition for rooms!

 

[SFlaDisneyfans]

Updated the original post with this morning's info. Approximately 3 weeks worth of inventory data from TSS and just under a 9% rise in inventory since 10/28.

 

[Maverick]

Updated the original post with this morning's info. Approximately 3 weeks worth of inventory data from TSS and just under a 9% rise in inventory since 10/28.

SFlaDisneyFans - A question please... Do you have data from the end of July, August and September that you can share? That would add to the trend line to see if supply dwindled those months and then starting rising. I apologize if this has been previously covered.

Thanks,
Mav