Reaching a price equilibrium?

[Nabas]

SFlaDisneyFans - A question please... Do you have data from the end of July, August and September that you can share? That would add to the trend line to see if supply dwindled those months and then starting rising. I apologize if this has been previously covered.

Thanks,
Mav

Total WDW listings on 6 DVC resale websites since bottoming out in June:

- June 18: 201
- July 2: 212
- July 16: 208
- July 30: 221
- August 13: 237
- August 27: 264
- Sept 10: 296
- Sept 24: 338
- Oct 8: 369
- Oct 22: 400
- Nov 5: 421

As you can see, the number of listings has more than doubled since late June.

Making the biggest recovery is BCV. On June 18, there were only 3 listings!

By November 5, that number was up to 28.

I guess asking prices of over $100/point is bringing out a lot of BCV sellers.

VWL listings have tripled, from 8 to 24, as have OKW, from 16 to 45.

Over 30% of current listings are at SSR.

 

[DougEMG]

If the increase in resale prices is causing more owners to try and sell in order to make a profit, then there is a good chance that prices aren't going to drop as those owners don't need to sell and are only wanting to sell at a certain price.

 

[Nabas]

If the increase in resale prices is causing more owners to try and sell in order to make a profit, then there is a good chance that prices aren't going to drop as those owners don't need to sell and are only wanting to sell at a certain price.

I agree. However, I also note that, in any market, there always are some that simply want to sell.

In other words, the current market contain a mix of those who are looking to sell at whatever the current market price is, and those who are looking to sell only because the price is high.

Even among those who are selling because the market is high, there will be some that are willing to sell below the current asking price.

Currently, average BCV asking price is about $102/point. There certainly will be some willing to sell at (for example) $97/point while, like any market, there will be others who will refuse to sell at anything less than their asking price.

Again, to what I think is your bigger point, higher prices will bring out more sellers.

 

[sndral]

W/ BLT and AKV especially, and maybe SSR as well, aren't there a certain number of owners who financed and once the prices hit a point where they can walk away w/out owing they'll be interested in selling (much like the upside down house phenomena?)

 

[Annielkd22222]

W/ BLT and AKV especially, and maybe SSR as well, aren't there a certain number of owners who financed and once the prices hit a point where they can walk away w/out owing they'll be interested in selling (much like the upside down house phenomena?)

That's another reason why I sold. I got exactly what I needed out of it.

 

[DougEMG]

That's another reason why I sold. I got exactly what I needed out of it.

I suspect/guess that this is exactly what is causing the increase in supply all of which makes me think that there will be no significant reduction in resale prices.

Back in the summer of 2012 when prices first started going up I though why not wait till the new year, with MF coming due there should be a drop in prices as more people decide to sell rather than pay the MF. Guess what, that never happened, prices continued to go up, so I should have bought in summer 2012 rather than waiting. End result was I never did buy any more points.

 

[Dean]

If the increase in resale prices is causing more owners to try and sell in order to make a profit, then there is a good chance that prices aren't going to drop as those owners don't need to sell and are only wanting to sell at a certain price.

IMO they hype of the DVC side was far more a factor than the economy for this situation. I expect the prices to come down as he inventory increases but there will be a lag on the listing side and a slightly different lag on accepted prices.

 

[SFlaDisneyfans]

Updated the list with this morning's information. Almost 30 BCV contracts for sale at TSS. Looks like people are trying to take advantage of its escalating price and move some contracts.

 

[SFlaDisneyfans]

Inventory on TSS is up 29% since I started tracking it. Asking prices have been floating down on most resorts (BCV being a visible exception).