Quantum OTS : What cruising might look like in 2021

[mevelandry]

Thanks for raising this issue. Not enough attention is being paid to it.
It's how I've felt since the pandemic began.
I:e, even if they ask for a vaccine passport before embarking, what will happen if there is 1 case on the ship? (vaccines are effective 95%, even at 99% you could still have infections, plus kids don't get vaccinated yet)
Do they stop the ship in the middle of the ocean, go back to port & send everyone home? What if its on the 2nd day out of a 14-night cruise? Can you imagine?
So, even if cruises ship with only-vaccinated passengers in 2022, what are the protocols if 10 ppl catch the virus onboard? - - No one has answered this yet, much less the cruise lines.

It's part of the plan that they have to submit to the CDC.

 

[jane01jp]

Or worse, will ships with cases once again be left floating at sea with nowhere to port?

There was a made for TV movie about that scenario years ago.

 

[otten]

There was a made for TV movie about that scenario years ago.

And it was the real life experience of some ships in the spring. Honestly I think the Wonder narrowly avoided it. Not something Disney is going to want to risk

 

[brentm77]

We spent a week at a resort in Riviera Maya just a few weeks ago. Pretty much the same experience as in the video. We loved our time down there. Everyone at the resort seemed to be having an amazing time too.

If you don't like what's in the video, you will have to cozy up to vacationing in your local parks for a LONG time to come. If that's you, more power to you.

For us, we will be on the first ship we can find after our vaccine shot - and especially if they ask everyone to wear masks and exercise social distancing on board.

I respectfully disagree about vacationing in our local parks if we don't want to cruise in this manner. We did WDW and had a blast. The restrictions were not a problem for us, and in some ways even enhanced the experience. We have another vacation planned in March. Somehow, cruising is different for us. It's normally the perfect vacation, and we want to keep it that way. There is also certain cruising activities the don't lend themselves well to mask wearing, the elevators are already slow, spaces are already more confined than many other vacations, and many activities already have limited availability, which will be exasperated by spacing concerns.

But I am glad there are people who won't be bothered, because they will need those people to keep the lines afloat until things calm down enough or I cave and sail anyway, with the plan to just chill on the veranda and eat good food.

 

[Intr3pid]

I respectfully disagree about vacationing in our local parks if we don't want to cruise in this manner. We did WDW and had a blast. The restrictions were not a problem for us, and in some ways even enhanced the experience. We have another vacation planned in March. Somehow, cruising is different for us. It's normally the perfect vacation, and we want to keep it that way. There is also certain cruising activities the don't lend themselves well to mask wearing, the elevators are already slow, spaces are already more confined than many other vacations, and many activities already have limited availability, which will be exasperated by spacing concerns.

But I am glad there are people who won't be bothered, because they will need those people to keep the lines afloat until things calm down enough or I cave and sail anyway, with the plan to just chill on the veranda and eat good food.

To each their own - I agree. I will say though that if you are looking for a perfect 2019-style vacation, just manage your expectations on how long you might have to wait for it. For us, WDW is not a vacation - it's simply a theme park visit in a longer cruise or resort getaway. Just like you didn't mind the restrictions in the parks and thought they enhanced your experience, there are folks whose cruise experience will be enhanced with the new health procedures and crowds than the wild west that existed until 2019.

 

[brentm77]

To each their own - I agree. I will say though that if you are looking for a perfect 2019-style vacation, just manage your expectations on how long you might have to wait for it. For us, WDW is not a vacation - it's simply a theme park visit in a longer cruise or resort getaway. Just like you didn't mind the restrictions in the parks and thought they enhanced your experience, there are folks whose cruise experience will be enhanced with the new health procedures and crowds than the wild west that existed until 2019.

Sure, there are some precautions that will be welcome going forward. But I don't think there will be long-term appetite for the heavy-handed stuff like mask wearing, limited seating in the theaters, limited use (or extra long waits) for elevators. I don't think those things will be in place as long as you think. First, it will be very very difficult for any cruise line to make reasonable profits sailing like that, because there is zero chance you could sail at capacity when you can't use the dinning rooms like normal, or the theaters like normal. Even WDW is slowly pulling back restrictions, such as capacity levels. Reality kicks in at some point.

And I suspect some large portion of the regular customers won't support mask wearing once the threat of the pandemic has greatly diminished - the people who want to wear masks forever will be a rare exception, though they seem to be vocal here. I am not particular bothered by mask wearing, but again, cruising is a different animal with lots of heat, humidity, and lounging by the pool. At least at a beach you can spread out and remove the masks.

Once high-risk groups are protected by the vaccine, the mortality rate will plummet to the point where it won't make sense to keep extreme precautions. There is no reason that can't happen in 2021. Even if it is 2022, it won't be forever. I think certain low-risk-tolerant individuals or introverts want current conditions to last, but that won't make it so. Anyone talking about the "new normal" hasn't studied humanity. We forget quickly and almost always slip back into old ways. We aren't going to live like the pandemic is present forever.

 

[Intr3pid]

Sure, there are some precautions that will be welcome going forward. But I don't think there will be long-term appetite for the heavy-handed stuff like mask wearing, limited seating in the theaters, limited use (or extra long waits) for elevators. I don't think those things will be in place as long as you think. First, it will be very very difficult for any cruise line to make reasonable profits sailing like that, because there is zero chance you could sail at capacity when you can't use the dinning rooms like normal, or the theaters like normal. Even WDW is slowly pulling back restrictions, such as capacity levels. Reality kicks in at some point.

And I suspect some large portion of the regular customers won't support mask wearing once the threat of the pandemic has greatly diminished - the people who want to wear masks forever will be a rare exception, though they seem to be vocal here. I am not particular bothered by mask wearing, but again, cruising is a different animal with lots of heat, humidity, and lounging by the pool. At least at a beach you can spread out and remove the masks.

Once high-risk groups are protected by the vaccine, the mortality rate will plummet to the point where it won't make sense to keep extreme precautions. There is no reason that can't happen in 2021. Even if it is 2022, it won't be forever. I think certain low-risk-tolerant individuals or introverts want current conditions to last, but that won't make it so. Anyone talking about the "new normal" hasn't studied humanity. We forget quickly and almost always slip back into old ways. We aren't going to live like the pandemic is present forever.

I would recommend making an effort to spend a few days at a high-quality resort today and see how they are operating those properties. There is plenty of speculation from a keyboard, and very little by way of actual experiences. Watching this video and throwing up your hands is a bit like seeing an airport security screening and vowing never to fly. Most have understood that they aren't going back to the pre-2001 days, and they see it as just another small step to take for a safer travel experience.

Occupancy will absolutely be reduced, and prices increased. This is already happening. Celebrity, NCL, Princess, and others who have put out itineraries into 2022/2023 are pricing them 20%-30% higher than last year. They have also removed quite a bit of low-margin capacity from the system They don't expect to return to anywhere near pre-COVID levels before 2025. The adjustments are also happening with Disney. The prices are higher by about 10%-15% in 2022 - while it's easier for them to boot out some of the high-cost activities on board.

If you study history, you will find that humanity hasn't survived by shrugging off what's happening around it - rather, by adapting to it. Take the example of the 1918 flu that prompted the birth of socialized medicine - one of the biggest influences on the modern healthcare systems. Sure, mask mandates won't be around forever or we won't be in lockdowns, but the world around us has already changed in one year in ways that it hadn't in the last 50. And we are just getting started.

 

[brentm77]

I would recommend making an effort to spend a few days at a high-quality resort today and see how they are operating those properties. There is plenty of speculation from a keyboard, and very little by way of actual experiences. Watching this video and throwing up your hands is a bit like seeing an airport security screening and vowing never to fly. Most have understood that they aren't going back to the pre-2001 days, and they see it as just another small step to take for a safer travel experience.

Occupancy will absolutely be reduced, and prices increased. This is already happening. Celebrity, NCL, Princess, and others who have put out itineraries into 2022/2023 are pricing them 20%-30% higher than last year. They have also removed quite a bit of low-margin capacity from the system They don't expect to return to anywhere near pre-COVID levels before 2025. The adjustments are also happening with Disney. The prices are higher by about 10%-15% in 2022 - while it's easier for them to boot out some of the high-cost activities on board.

If you study history, you will find that humanity hasn't survived by shrugging off what's happening around it - rather, by adapting to it. Take the example of the 1918 flu that prompted the birth of socialized medicine - one of the biggest influences on the modern healthcare systems. Sure, mask mandates won't be around forever or we won't be in lockdowns, but the world around us has already changed in one year in ways that it hadn't in the last 50. And we are just getting started.

How about we just stick to the topic and not speculate about each other's life experience?

I just returned from a "high quality resort." What does that have to do with the price of milk? Seeing how resorts are operating in the middle of a pandemic says next to nothing about what post-pandemic operations will be like. Unless you have a time machine, we are both only capable of speculation right now.

Your 1918 example about social medicine isn't very convincing, as it has little to do with day-to-day human behavior post pandemic, which mostly returned to pre-pandemic norms.

With respect to limited capacity, there is zero chance any cruise line will sail with large amounts of empty rooms on a long-term basis. It's not a feasible economic model. Consumers aren't in a position to simply cover billions of dollars in lost revenue to fill the gap for the capital expense of already-built (and currently being built) ships. You even state in your reply that the major lines expect to return to pre-covid levels within four years. Which proves we will return to pre-pandemic ways. I also suspect, just like Disney, they will start to up capacity once in operation.

And it's not overall reduced capacity on the ship and a corresponding price increase that is the problem with the video. It's not like I'm begging to sail with large crowds. Nor did I "throw my hands up." I simply said that cruising while under the restrictions shown in the video is not something I am interested in while there are other less restrictive vacation options. Airport security is a temporary blip in the vacation, not a permanent fixture from the time you get up to the time you go to bed.

Maybe there is some confusion on my end, because at times you seem to be saying changes will be permanent and at times you seem to be saying I should manage my expectations of when things will return to normal. If we are simply disagreeing on how quickly the pandemic will end and how soon things will return to normal, then we don't need to talk about 911 or permanent changes after 1918, and we can just agree to disagree on the time line.

But if you are indeed arguing this is the new normal, let's keep this simple and try not to talk past each other - what safety precautions in the video do you think will be around post-pandemic?

 

[jlwhitney]

How about we just stick to the topic and not speculate about each other's life experience?

I just returned from a "high quality resort." What does that have to do with the price of milk? Seeing how resorts are operating in the middle of a pandemic says next to nothing about what post-pandemic operations will be like. Unless you have a time machine, we are both only capable of speculation right now.

Your 1918 example about social medicine isn't very convincing, as it has little to do with day-to-day human behavior post pandemic, which mostly returned to pre-pandemic norms.

With respect to limited capacity, there is zero chance any cruise line will sail with large amounts of empty rooms on a long-term basis. It's not a feasible economic model. Consumers aren't in a position to simply cover billions of dollars in lost revenue to fill the gap of the capital expense of already-built (and currently being built) ships. You even state in your reply that the major lines expect to return to pre-covid levels within four years. Which contradicts your claim that we won't return to pre-2019 ways.

And it's not overall reduced capacity on the ship and a corresponding price increase that is the problem with the video. It's not like I'm begging to sail with large crowds. Nor did I "throw my hands up." I simply said that cruising while under the restrictions shown in the video is not something I am interested in while there are other less restrictive vacation options. Airport security is a temporary blip in the vacation, not a permanent fixture from the time you get up to the time you go to bed.

Let's keep this simple and try not to talk past each other - what safety precautions in the video do you think will be around post-pandemic?

The only thing I really see staying long term is more cleaning, but even that will change in time too as people get sloppy and lazy and realize nothing bad happens. Same with most of the current precautions.

 

[brentm77]

The only thing I really see staying long term is more cleaning, but even that will change in time too as people get sloppy and lazy and realize nothing bad happens. Same with most of the current precautions.

That's about where I fall out when it comes to the day-to-day stuff. I have been around enough people to see we don't really change. Even after traumatic "life changing" events, we slip into old ways within weeks. We can't even get 90% of heart attack survivors to change the way they eat. There will be some small percentage of the population that won't leave the house without a facemask and/or that continues the isolation lifestyle. But the average person is eager to socialize, speak with others without a piece of cloth on their face and a pointless plexiglass burier, enjoy a concert or movie premiere with like-minded fans, etc. Many states that eased restrictions early have already seen this to a great extent.

As an employment lawyer, I can tell you it won't even take five years before we see articles about the failed work-from-home experiment, and how it wasn't all it was cracked up to be. There will be certain sectors where it will stick, but it won't stick for executives, creative teams, sales, marketing, etc. We are losing more from working at home than is readily apparent.

Assuming the vaccine works against new strains and/or new strains are significantly less deadly, it won't take long to drastically reduce the lethality of the virus by targeting care homes and the elderly. And between the vaccine and people who have already had the virus, we will see a significant drop in cases by summer. Remember how quickly major world events just sort of vanish from the news, even when they are ongoing? It happens all the time. Eventually COVID will do the same and people will return to their old ways. This won't be the "new normal" for the average person.

I would take a reasonable bet that by no later than spring 2022, people will cruise pretty much like they used to cruise. If not 2022, then 2023. But it will happen and it won't take a decade.

 

[jlwhitney]

That's about where I fall out when it comes to the day-to-day stuff. I have been around enough people to see we don't really change. Even after traumatic "life changing" events, we slip into old ways within weeks. We can't even get 90% of heart attack survivors to change the way they eat. There will be some small percentage of the population that won't leave the house without a facemask and/or that continues the isolation lifestyle. But the average person is eager to socialize, speak with others without a piece of cloth on their face and a pointless plexiglass burier, enjoy a concert or movie premiere with like-minded fans, etc. Many states that eased restrictions early have already seen this to a great extent.

As an employment lawyer, I can tell you it won't even take five years before we see articles about the failed work-from-home experiment, and how it wasn't all it was cracked up to be. There will be certain sectors where it will stick, but it won't stick for executives, creative teams, sales, marketing, etc. We are losing more from working at home than is readily apparent.

Assuming the vaccine works against new strains and/or new strains are significantly less deadly, it won't take long to drastically reduce the lethality of the virus by targeting care homes and the elderly. And between the vaccine and people who have already had the virus, we will see a significant drop in cases by summer. Remember how quickly major world events just sort of vanish from the news, even when they are ongoing? It happens all the time. Eventually COVID will do the same and people will return to their old ways. This won't be the "new normal" for the average person.

I would take a reasonable bet that by no later than spring 2022, people will cruise pretty much like they used to cruise. If not 2022, then 2023. But it will happen and it won't take a decade.

well stated! I live in an area with loose restrictions and people even know have no problem going places with no masks and sitting close and such. Once it drops from the daily news for a week a lot will change.

 

[mevelandry]

How about we just stick to the topic and not speculate about each other's life experience?

I just returned from a "high quality resort." What does that have to do with the price of milk? Seeing how resorts are operating in the middle of a pandemic says next to nothing about what post-pandemic operations will be like. Unless you have a time machine, we are both only capable of speculation right now.

Your 1918 example about social medicine isn't very convincing, as it has little to do with day-to-day human behavior post pandemic, which mostly returned to pre-pandemic norms.

With respect to limited capacity, there is zero chance any cruise line will sail with large amounts of empty rooms on a long-term basis. It's not a feasible economic model. Consumers aren't in a position to simply cover billions of dollars in lost revenue to fill the gap for the capital expense of already-built (and currently being built) ships. You even state in your reply that the major lines expect to return to pre-covid levels within four years. Which proves we will return to pre-pandemic ways. I also suspect, just like Disney, they will start to up capacity once in operation.

And it's not overall reduced capacity on the ship and a corresponding price increase that is the problem with the video. It's not like I'm begging to sail with large crowds. Nor did I "throw my hands up." I simply said that cruising while under the restrictions shown in the video is not something I am interested in while there are other less restrictive vacation options. Airport security is a temporary blip in the vacation, not a permanent fixture from the time you get up to the time you go to bed.

Maybe there is some confusion on my end, because at times you seem to be saying changes will be permanent and at times you seem to be saying I should manage my expectations of when things will return to normal. If we are simply disagreeing on how quickly the pandemic will end and how soon things will return to normal, then we don't need to talk about 911 or permanent changes after 1918, and we can just agree to disagree on the time line.

But if you are indeed arguing this is the new normal, let's keep this simple and try not to talk past each other - what safety precautions in the video do you think will be around post-pandemic?

I believe we will return to most of what we had in 2019 (same or somewhat similar capacity... However, I believe that some things will be changed forever (like some ventilation and cleanliness standards, self-serve to become serve —buffet, drink station, ice cream— staggered check-in, in-room fire drill, etc.)

 

[mevelandry]

The only thing I really see staying long term is more cleaning, but even that will change in time too as people get sloppy and lazy and realize nothing bad happens. Same with most of the current precautions.

Unless the CDC make them rules and part of the « surprise inspections ».

 

[mevelandry]

That's about where I fall out when it comes to the day-to-day stuff. I have been around enough people to see we don't really change. Even after traumatic "life changing" events, we slip into old ways within weeks. We can't even get 90% of heart attack survivors to change the way they eat. There will be some small percentage of the population that won't leave the house without a facemask and/or that continues the isolation lifestyle. But the average person is eager to socialize, speak with others without a piece of cloth on their face and a pointless plexiglass burier, enjoy a concert or movie premiere with like-minded fans, etc. Many states that eased restrictions early have already seen this to a great extent.

As an employment lawyer, I can tell you it won't even take five years before we see articles about the failed work-from-home experiment, and how it wasn't all it was cracked up to be. There will be certain sectors where it will stick, but it won't stick for executives, creative teams, sales, marketing, etc. We are losing more from working at home than is readily apparent.

Assuming the vaccine works against new strains and/or new strains are significantly less deadly, it won't take long to drastically reduce the lethality of the virus by targeting care homes and the elderly. And between the vaccine and people who have already had the virus, we will see a significant drop in cases by summer. Remember how quickly major world events just sort of vanish from the news, even when they are ongoing? It happens all the time. Eventually COVID will do the same and people will return to their old ways. This won't be the "new normal" for the average person.

I would take a reasonable bet that by no later than spring 2022, people will cruise pretty much like they used to cruise. If not 2022, then 2023. But it will happen and it won't take a decade.

Weird because both my husband and I are experiencing the opposite when it comes to work-from-home. People are actually more focussed at home and perform better and are generally less tired from not having to commute and being able to really rest during their breaks. My husband’s employer is saving money because they can rent a smaller space, don’t offer the use of a gym or catering anymore. So they are currently trying to make this change permanent.

As I said earlier... I think some new things will stay but I agree that people will pretty much go back to their « natural » ways within months of the threat disappearing.

 

[mevelandry]

well stated! I live in an area with loose restrictions and people even know have no problem going places with no masks and sitting close and such. Once it drops from the daily news for a week a lot will change.

This is not the norm, though. A lot (if not most) of countries are under lockdown with mandatory masks orders at this moment.

 

[jane01jp]

This is not the norm, though. A lot (if not most) of countries are under lockdown with mandatory masks orders at this moment.

I am starting to see more and more "newthink" in the US about the efficacy of lockdowns from sources that were previously big proponents of lockdowns (Andrew Cuomo, Lori Lightfoot, Newsweek). The thinking now seems to be that we can't wait to get rid of the disease before opening things up, and/or that lockdowns drive people to congregate in their homes instead of in public, with not much, if any, change in disease transmission.

 

[jlwhitney]

This is not the norm, though. A lot (if not most) of countries are under lockdown with mandatory masks orders at this moment.

it’s actually more areas of the us than you would think.

but it was more to point out that even now people are willing and ready to drop masks and be near people.

 

[jane01jp]

it’s actually more areas of the us than you would think.

but it was more to point out that even now people are willing and ready to drop masks and be near people.

I'm not seeing that as much yet in my community. But, we have several dominant employers in my city that are on the side of lockdowns and masks (for now). It will be interesting to see if/when they get new marching orders.

 

[Intr3pid]

How about we just stick to the topic and not speculate about each other's life experience?

I just returned from a "high quality resort." What does that have to do with the price of milk? Seeing how resorts are operating in the middle of a pandemic says next to nothing about what post-pandemic operations will be like. Unless you have a time machine, we are both only capable of speculation right now.

Your 1918 example about social medicine isn't very convincing, as it has little to do with day-to-day human behavior post pandemic, which mostly returned to pre-pandemic norms.

With respect to limited capacity, there is zero chance any cruise line will sail with large amounts of empty rooms on a long-term basis. It's not a feasible economic model. Consumers aren't in a position to simply cover billions of dollars in lost revenue to fill the gap for the capital expense of already-built (and currently being built) ships. You even state in your reply that the major lines expect to return to pre-covid levels within four years. Which proves we will return to pre-pandemic ways. I also suspect, just like Disney, they will start to up capacity once in operation.

And it's not overall reduced capacity on the ship and a corresponding price increase that is the problem with the video. It's not like I'm begging to sail with large crowds. Nor did I "throw my hands up." I simply said that cruising while under the restrictions shown in the video is not something I am interested in while there are other less restrictive vacation options. Airport security is a temporary blip in the vacation, not a permanent fixture from the time you get up to the time you go to bed.

Maybe there is some confusion on my end, because at times you seem to be saying changes will be permanent and at times you seem to be saying I should manage my expectations of when things will return to normal. If we are simply disagreeing on how quickly the pandemic will end and how soon things will return to normal, then we don't need to talk about 911 or permanent changes after 1918, and we can just agree to disagree on the time line.

But if you are indeed arguing this is the new normal, let's keep this simple and try not to talk past each other - what safety precautions in the video do you think will be around post-pandemic?

It's safe to say several folks in this thread have an overly optimistic view of when we would go back to anything like a new normal.

For starters, here is a virus that's getting more out of control every day. Cases are skyrocketing, deaths are piling on, vaccine rollouts are slow, and new strains are being discovered every week. This is a pandemic that has had the whole world shut down for a year, with entire industries decimated and no quick end in sight.

Anyone who thinks we will be back to normal by fall 2021 or early 2022 frankly have their heads in the sand. And it's probably not difficult to dig up old posts by the same folks from last year - when they thought so for 2020 too.

--------------------------------

Here is my speculation. My optimistic case.

- Fall 2021 is the earliest by when most of the western hemisphere will be inoculated the first time around. By then, a few different mutations will be at hand, so we will need to reformulate the vaccines. That means most international borders will remain tightly controlled. Travel will be not much different from what it was last fall.

- Meanwhile, the rest of the world isn't fully vaccinated, so the virus will still be out there just like it was in March 2020. On a positive note, we will have more treatments and less severe cases. Deaths will be down.

- By then, we will be into a new winter, and those inoculated earlier this year will have to be inoculated again. The production process with the new formulations will continue to present at least some supply problems, so we will still have to prioritize and go through the queues. That brings us to spring/summer 2022.

- The rest of the world will be doing their second rounds, so the border controls will still be there. The R0 of this virus is increasing alarmingly, and this dance of new strains and formulations will take at least one more cycle to control it globally. That's 2023 - and assuming we don't run into a COVID-23.

- But, because of these bruises, the travel industry will be forever changed. The cruise industry - in particular - will have had a near-death experience (in the optimistic case) and will be the last to shed the new precautions. And that's 2024. It will take at least one more year for all their desertees to return, and that's 2025.

- In a more pessimistic case, half the population drags its feet in accepting a vaccine, and we add a year or two more to the timeline. And we lose a major cruise line or two along the way.

- As for occupancy, 'zero chance of X' is foolhardy by definition, but let's play along. Dream class ships have 70% of the capacity of RCL's mega ships, are priced higher, and sell out often. Magic class ships have 70% capacity of the Dream class, are priced higher than the Dream class, and sell out often. There is nothing stopping a ship to clamp down its capacity, dial up its prices, find enough takers, and turn up a profit - at least until the public health crisis is behind you. This is how the cruise industry had operated for 40 years before the mega ships showed up.

- When will the capacity controls go away? When will the mask mandates go away? When will the temperature scanning go away? etc. Based on the timeline above, probably after the flu season of 2023-2024. (And in some respects, never.) Much bigger and longer drawn out changes took place after 1918. You seem to have moved your own marker from 2021 in post #46 to 2023 in post #50, so I would say we are not too far off on the timeline.

--------------------------------

Except - for us - 2023/2024 is an eternity, and we are not waiting till then to get on with our life. Quite the opposite. Know the rules, expect constraints, exercise care, travel when you can - and enjoy the life while you are younger.

Finally, it's worth repeating:

I would recommend making an effort to spend a few days at a high-quality resort today and see how they are operating those properties.

This is as close as you can get to experiencing a precautions-laden cruise ship today in this part of the world. And to a more informed way of making long-term travel decisions than with a YouTube video.

 

[Intr3pid]

Thanks for raising this issue. Not enough attention is being paid to it.
It's how I've felt since the pandemic began.
I:e, even if they ask for a vaccine passport before embarking, what will happen if there is 1 case on the ship? (vaccines are effective 95%, even at 99% you could still have infections, plus kids don't get vaccinated yet)
Do they stop the ship in the middle of the ocean, go back to port & send everyone home? What if its on the 2nd day out of a 14-night cruise? Can you imagine?
So, even if cruises ship with only-vaccinated passengers in 2022, what are the protocols if 10 ppl catch the virus onboard? - - No one has answered this yet, much less the cruise lines.

Each ship will need to have testing facilities on board. And it will also need to have arrangements with at least one port to test and quarantine guests following an outbreak.

The new CSO talks about a threshold - which CDC hasn't defined and (I presume) will vary from ship to ship. If the total number of cases are below this threshold, those who test positive will be isolated on board, and the rest of the cruise will proceed as planned. If the number of cases exceed the threshold, the ship will need to make a beeline to the port and quarantine everyone shoreside until full testing has been completed.

MSC, for example, had this arrangement with the Italian ports last summer and fall. Remarkably, they didn't have a single outbreak on board in that entire passage of time - and the precautions you see in the OP's video are exactly what made that possible.