How about we just stick to the topic and not speculate about each other's life experience?
I just returned from a "high quality resort." What does that have to do with the price of milk? Seeing how resorts are operating in the middle of a pandemic says next to nothing about what post-pandemic operations will be like. Unless you have a time machine, we are both only capable of speculation right now.
Your 1918 example about social medicine isn't very convincing, as it has little to do with day-to-day human behavior post pandemic, which mostly returned to pre-pandemic norms.
With respect to limited capacity, there is zero chance any cruise line will sail with large amounts of empty rooms on a long-term basis. It's not a feasible economic model. Consumers aren't in a position to simply cover billions of dollars in lost revenue to fill the gap for the capital expense of already-built (and currently being built) ships. You even state in your reply that the major lines expect to return to pre-covid levels within four years. Which proves we will return to pre-pandemic ways. I also suspect, just like Disney, they will start to up capacity once in operation.
And it's not overall reduced capacity on the ship and a corresponding price increase that is the problem with the video. It's not like I'm begging to sail with large crowds. Nor did I "throw my hands up." I simply said that cruising while under the restrictions shown in the video is not something I am interested in while there are other less restrictive vacation options. Airport security is a temporary blip in the vacation, not a permanent fixture from the time you get up to the time you go to bed.
Maybe there is some confusion on my end, because at times you seem to be saying changes will be permanent and at times you seem to be saying I should manage my expectations of when things will return to normal. If we are simply disagreeing on how quickly the pandemic will end and how soon things will return to normal, then we don't need to talk about 911 or permanent changes after 1918, and we can just agree to disagree on the time line.
But if you are indeed arguing this is the new normal, let's keep this simple and try not to talk past each other - what safety precautions in the video do you think will be around post-pandemic?
It's safe to say several folks in this thread have an overly optimistic view of when we would go back to anything like a new normal.
For starters, here is a virus that's getting more out of control every day. Cases are skyrocketing, deaths are piling on, vaccine rollouts are slow, and new strains are being discovered every week. This is a pandemic that has had the whole world shut down for a year, with entire industries decimated and no quick end in sight.
Anyone who thinks we will be back to normal by fall 2021 or early 2022 frankly have their heads in the sand. And it's probably not difficult to dig up old posts by the same folks from last year - when they thought so for 2020 too.
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Here is
my speculation. My optimistic case.
- Fall 2021 is the earliest by when most of the western hemisphere will be inoculated the first time around. By then, a few different mutations will be at hand, so we will need to reformulate the vaccines. That means most international borders will remain tightly controlled. Travel will be not much different from what it was last fall.
- Meanwhile, the rest of the world isn't fully vaccinated, so the virus will still be out there just like it was in March 2020. On a positive note, we will have more treatments and less severe cases. Deaths will be down.
- By then, we will be into a new winter, and those inoculated earlier this year will have to be inoculated again. The production process with the new formulations will continue to present at least some supply problems, so we will still have to prioritize and go through the queues. That brings us to spring/summer 2022.
- The rest of the world will be doing their second rounds, so the border controls will still be there. The R0 of this virus is increasing alarmingly, and this dance of new strains and formulations will take at least one more cycle to control it globally. That's 2023 - and assuming we don't run into a COVID-23.
- But, because of these bruises, the travel industry will be forever changed. The cruise industry - in particular - will have had a near-death experience (in the optimistic case) and will be the last to shed the new precautions. And that's 2024. It will take at least one more year for all their desertees to return, and that's 2025.
- In a more pessimistic case, half the population drags its feet in accepting a vaccine, and we add a year or two more to the timeline. And we lose a major cruise line or two along the way.
- As for occupancy, 'zero chance of X' is foolhardy by definition, but let's play along. Dream class ships have 70% of the capacity of RCL's mega ships, are priced higher, and sell out often. Magic class ships have 70% capacity of the Dream class, are priced higher than the Dream class, and sell out often. There is nothing stopping a ship to clamp down its capacity, dial up its prices, find enough takers, and turn up a profit - at least until the public health crisis is behind you. This is how the cruise industry had operated for 40 years before the mega ships showed up.
- When will the capacity controls go away? When will the mask mandates go away? When will the temperature scanning go away? etc. Based on the timeline above, probably after the flu season of 2023-2024. (And in some respects, never.) Much bigger and longer drawn out changes took place after 1918. You seem to have moved your own marker from 2021 in post #46 to 2023 in post #50, so I would say we are not too far off on the timeline.
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Except - for us - 2023/2024 is an eternity, and we are not waiting till then to get on with our life. Quite the opposite. Know the rules, expect constraints, exercise care, travel when you can - and enjoy the life while you are younger.
Finally, it's worth repeating:
I would recommend making an effort to spend a few days at a high-quality resort today and see how they are operating those properties.
This is as close as you can get to experiencing a precautions-laden cruise ship today in this part of the world. And to a more informed way of making long-term travel decisions than with a YouTube video.