Quantum OTS : What cruising might look like in 2021

[mevelandry]

it’s actually more areas of the us than you would think.

but it was more to point out that even now people are willing and ready to drop masks and be near people.

Yeah, Canada is much more on the safe side (not out of choice).

People in lockdown as well can’t wait to drop masks and be near people... But we can’t because it’s still not safe and it’s still forbidden.

 

[jlwhitney]

It's safe to say several folks in this thread have an overly optimistic view of when we would go back to anything like a new normal.

For starters, here is a virus that's getting more out of control every day. Cases are skyrocketing, deaths are piling on, vaccine rollouts are slow, and new strains are being discovered every week. This is a pandemic that has had the whole world shut down for a year, with entire industries decimated and no quick end in sight.

Anyone who thinks we will be back to normal by fall 2021 or early 2022 frankly have their heads in the sand. And it's probably not difficult to dig up old posts by the same folks from last year - when they thought so for 2020 too.

--------------------------------

Here is my speculation. My optimistic case.

- Fall 2021 is the earliest by when most of the western hemisphere will be inoculated the first time around. By then, a few different mutations will be at hand, so we will need to reformulate the vaccines. That means most international borders will remain tightly controlled. Travel will be not much different from what it was last fall.

- Meanwhile, the rest of the world isn't fully vaccinated, so the virus will still be out there just like it was in March 2020. On a positive note, we will have more treatments and less severe cases. Deaths will be down.

- By then, we will be into a new winter, and those inoculated earlier this year will have to be inoculated again. The production process with the new formulations will continue to present at least some supply problems, so we will still have to prioritize and go through the queues. That brings us to spring/summer 2022.

- The rest of the world will be doing their second rounds, so the border controls will still be there. The R0 of this virus is increasing alarmingly, and this dance of new strains and formulations will take at least one more cycle to control it globally. That's 2023 - and assuming we don't run into a COVID-23.

- But, because of these bruises, the travel industry will be forever changed. The cruise industry - in particular - will have had a near-death experience (in the optimistic case) and will be the last to shed the new precautions. And that's 2024. It will take at least one more year for all their desertees to return, and that's 2025.

- In a more pessimistic case, half the population drags its feet in accepting a vaccine, and we add a year or two more to the timeline. And we lose a major cruise line or two along the way.

- As for occupancy, 'zero chance of X' is foolhardy by definition, but let's play along. Dream class ships have 70% of the capacity of RCL's mega ships, are priced higher, and sell out often. Magic class ships have 70% capacity of the Dream class, are priced higher than the Dream class, and sell out often. There is nothing stopping a ship to clamp down its capacity, dial up its prices, find enough takers, and turn up a profit - at least until the public health crisis is behind you. This is how the cruise industry had operated for 40 years before the mega ships showed up.

- When will the capacity controls go away? When will the mask mandates go away? When will the temperature scanning go away? etc. Based on the timeline above, probably after the flu season of 2023-2024. (And in some respects, never.) Much bigger and longer drawn out changes took place after 1918. You seem to have moved your own marker from 2021 in post #46 to 2023 in post #50, so I would say we are not too far off on the timeline.

--------------------------------

Except - for us - 2023/2024 is an eternity, and we are not waiting till then to get on with our life. Quite the opposite. Know the rules, expect constraints, exercise care, travel when you can - and enjoy the life while you are younger.

Finally, it's worth repeating:

This is as close as you can get to experiencing a precautions-laden cruise ship today in this part of the world. And to a more informed way of making long-term travel decisions than with a YouTube video.

More people on this forum are pessimistic in view than optimistic.

 

[brentm77]

It's safe to say several folks in this thread have an overly optimistic view of when we would go back to anything like a new normal.

For starters, here is a virus that's getting more out of control every day. Cases are skyrocketing, deaths are piling on, vaccine rollouts are slow, and new strains are being discovered every week. This is a pandemic that has had the whole world shut down for a year, with entire industries decimated and no quick end in sight.

Anyone who thinks we will be back to normal by fall 2021 or early 2022 frankly have their heads in the sand. And it's probably not difficult to dig up old posts by the same folks from last year - when they thought so for 2020 too.

--------------------------------

Here is my speculation. My optimistic case.

- Fall 2021 is the earliest by when most of the western hemisphere will be inoculated the first time around. By then, a few different mutations will be at hand, so we will need to reformulate the vaccines. That means most international borders will remain tightly controlled. Travel will be not much different from what it was last fall.

- Meanwhile, the rest of the world isn't fully vaccinated, so the virus will still be out there just like it was in March 2020. On a positive note, we will have more treatments and less severe cases. Deaths will be down.

- By then, we will be into a new winter, and those inoculated earlier this year will have to be inoculated again. The production process with the new formulations will continue to present at least some supply problems, so we will still have to prioritize and go through the queues. That brings us to spring/summer 2022.

- The rest of the world will be doing their second rounds, so the border controls will still be there. The R0 of this virus is increasing alarmingly, and this dance of new strains and formulations will take at least one more cycle to control it globally. That's 2023 - and assuming we don't run into a COVID-23.

- But, because of these bruises, the travel industry will be forever changed. The cruise industry - in particular - will have had a near-death experience (in the optimistic case) and will be the last to shed the new precautions. And that's 2024. It will take at least one more year for all their desertees to return, and that's 2025.

- In a more pessimistic case, half the population drags its feet in accepting a vaccine, and we add a year or two more to the timeline. And we lose a major cruise line or two along the way.

- As for occupancy, 'zero chance of X' is foolhardy by definition, but let's play along. Dream class ships have 70% of the capacity of RCL's mega ships, are priced higher, and sell out often. Magic class ships have 70% capacity of the Dream class, are priced higher than the Dream class, and sell out often. There is nothing stopping a ship to clamp down its capacity, dial up its prices, find enough takers, and turn up a profit - at least until the public health crisis is behind you. This is how the cruise industry had operated for 40 years before the mega ships showed up.

- When will the capacity controls go away? When will the mask mandates go away? When will the temperature scanning go away? etc. Based on the timeline above, probably after the flu season of 2023-2024. (And in some respects, never.) Much bigger and longer drawn out changes took place after 1918. You seem to have moved your own marker from 2021 in post #46 to 2023 in post #50, so I would say we are not too far off on the timeline.

--------------------------------

Except - for us - 2023/2024 is an eternity, and we are not waiting till then to get on with our life. Quite the opposite. Know the rules, expect constraints, exercise care, travel when you can - and enjoy the life while you are younger.

Finally, it's worth repeating:

This is as close as you can get to experiencing a precautions-laden cruise ship today in this part of the world. And to a more informed way of making long-term travel decisions than with a YouTube video.

Your right to suspect that I have been overly optimistic about timeliness since the pandemic started. And indeed, you will find posts where I was wrong about sailing again by March of this year. My opinion was based on experts who said that the quickest we had ever developed vacines was four years and not to expect a vacine any time soon, despite government and commercial hype. I still think we would be sailing this spring if it weren't for what was essentially a miracle vacine in both the timeline and effectiveness. Once we had a viable vacine, cruise lines had more reason to wait.

In any case, I didn't intentionally change dates above. I still maintain there is no reason not to have mass vaccinated everyone this year (in most developed countries). If it goes beyond the end of next year, then something has gone terribly wrong. Once that happens, things should return to normal in my opinion. That was the point in #46. But #50 was more of a hedge, where I was saying that is the longest we should have to wait if things don't go as quickly as I hope.

While I think your timeline is in the realm of possibilities, I think you are being overly pessimistic. Even absent wide distribution of vacines, viruses tend to become much less lethal within a couple of years, and treatments will (and already have) significantly improved. Once the virus isn't a significant threat, why would we keep overreaching safety precautions?

We will just have to disagree on the lines' appetite for sailing with limited capacity and the public's willingness to float the extra cost. Lines will quickly see the opportunity to help their terrible financial situation by maximizing use of rooms.
Comparing smaller ships' ability to sail with the less passengers they were designed for is not the same thing as sailing large ships with empty rooms. This ships have debt payments tied to their capital expense, which is proportional to their capacity. WDW is already proving corporations don't have the discipline. They went from 25% to 35%. At 35% capacity, it was packed in certain areas, and they may now be at 45% or more from some reports.

I am still a bit confused on your references to permanent changes from past world events and what you think will be permanent this time. But, it seems we are in agreement that things will mostly go back to normal sometime. Again, I admit to being overly optimistic to date and that I could be entirely wrong this time, which means my expectations are already "managed," per your original post.

But the bottom line is, for me, the cruising shown in the video turns cruising into something less desirable than land alternatives, even though cruising DCL is easily my favorite vacation, and it's not even close. For now, I could wait several years if needed, and the longer I am away, the easier that actually seems.

In any event, I applaud you for saying you will take precautions and get on with travel before then. Let's plan on talking again in the future and assess if my optimism has gotten the better of me again and I can congratulate you for your realism. Safe travels.

 

[jlwhitney]

Yeah, Canada is much more on the safe side (not out of choice).

People in lockdown as well can’t wait to drop masks and be near people... But we can’t because it’s still not safe and it’s still forbidden.

I am still on the side that the lockdowns and such aren't doing as much as some like to believe. Most of the country is having the same main issues no matter what rules they have right now, except places like CA, NY and others like them are going to have a much harder recovery.

 

[lovin'fl]

I have the new Odyssey of the Seas booked for Feb 2022 in a balcony and fully expect to be on that cruise. Optimistic that things should be moving along by then. Vaccines should be well distributed. As long as all the doses aren't given out and then folks can't get that 2nd dose in time and have to all start over.

 

[mevelandry]

I am still on the side that the lockdowns and such aren't doing as much as some like to believe. Most of the country is having the same main issues no matter what rules they have right now, except places like CA, NY and others like them are going to have a much harder recovery.

Here, lockdowns have been efficient in significantly reducing the number of cases/hospitalizations/deaths. It started getting worse again when kids returned to school and people returned to work and dramatically spiked during christmas because some people organized secret parties (and because the government did not close shopping malls).

 

[jlwhitney]

Here, lockdowns have been efficient in significantly reducing the number of cases/hospitalizations/deaths. It started getting worse again when kids returned to school and people returned to work and dramatically spiked during christmas because some people organized secret parties (and because the government did not close shopping malls).

my county has stayed fairly stable this whole time. Schools open since august . Masks only for 3rd and up. Have three schools (private and charter with no masks). Most youth activities(sports karate dance and such) don’t require them. Most local buisnesses don’t. 200k live in this county too

 

[BadPinkTink]

Here, lockdowns have been efficient in significantly reducing the number of cases/hospitalizations/deaths. It started getting worse again when kids returned to school and people returned to work and dramatically spiked during christmas because some people organized secret parties (and because the government did not close shopping malls).

same in my country. the case numbers and deaths reduced dramatically during lockdowns. The case numbers went up in September, when the schools and none essential business reopened. Then we had a second lockdown in October and th numbers went down again. In December we opened for 3 weeks, retail restaurants and people went crazy with family gatherings and mixing households during Christmas. We are now in lockdown number 3 and the cases have gone from a record high of over 8000 in a 24 hour period to 3000 in a 24 hour period.

 

[mevelandry]

my county has stayed fairly stable this whole time. Schools open since august . Masks only for 3rd and up. Have three schools (private and charter with no masks). Most youth activities(sports karate dance and such) don’t require them. Most local buisnesses don’t. 200k live in this county too

Here, masks were only mandatory in high school, outside of the class. It’s been a nightmare. So many outbreaks. They are now mandatory at all time, and kids from 1st grade to 6th grade now have to wear a mask outside of the class. Masks are mandatory in every indoor public space and public transportation. Unfortunately the vast majority of outbreaks happen in school and workplaces, which is why they make working from home mandatory for a whole month until Feb 8.

I am 100% expecting mandatory masks on cruise ships in 2021 and maybe part of 2022.

 

[jane01jp]

Anyone who thinks we will be back to normal by fall 2021 or early 2022 frankly have their heads in the sand.

Agree. IMHO, anyone who thinks that they will have the luxury to be even thinking about cruising if we try to keep society locked down for another year or three has their heads in the sand.

Diseases will always be with us. We have to live with them. If we continue to myopically focus on COVID and its variants, we will ruin what is left of the world.

 

[jane01jp]

my county has stayed fairly stable this whole time. Schools open since august . Masks only for 3rd and up. Have three schools (private and charter with no masks). Most youth activities(sports karate dance and such) don’t require them. Most local buisnesses don’t. 200k live in this county too

If my kids were still school age, I would remove them from any school that required masks.

 

[Cheburashka]

If my kids were still school age, I would remove them from any school that required masks.

Where I live, that would mean homeschooling, and that isn't possible for us or for most families.

 

[jane01jp]

Where I live, that would mean homeschooling, and that isn't possible for us or for most families.

I know. I would worry about that later. I simply don't acknowledge the government's domain over our faces.

 

[jane01jp]

people went crazy with family gatherings and mixing households during Christmas

IMHO, this is what we once called "life."

 

[AquaDame]

Please keep this thread on topic, thanks!

 

[mevelandry]

I know. I would worry about that later. I simply don't acknowledge the government's domain over our faces.

Be prepared for private companies like cruise lines requiring mandatory masks because it’s already happening.

 

[jane01jp]

Be prepared for private companies like cruise lines requiring mandatory masks because it’s already happening.

I already am. In my state, all companies have to. Some just don't do it. Those are the business that I support.

 

[mevelandry]

I already am. In my state, all companies have to. Some just don't do it. Those are the business that I support.

I’m talking about cruising... (Let’s try to stay on topic).

 

[AquaDame]

Last chance for this thread - if you wish to compare notes about mask mandates in your individual states please take it to the community forum or PM. Thanks!

 

[Cruising Engineer]

It was hard to tell in the video if it was an actual cruise or staged actors on a docked ship. The video shots were mainly tight and not wide shots with panning around the room or event. The ship looked empty except for the few on the pool deck. We'll see what DCL come up with hopefully soon. I don't mind being served from the buffet line; just like an Army mess hall. Seemed the theater was 90% blocked off with 2 seats open here and there as the usher escorted cruisers to open seats.

Right now we would take any and all precautions just to get on a ship. We book the 2020 cruises (B2B) in March of 2019 and used UY 2018 and 2019 DVC points. DVC hasn't figured out or said if they will keep moving point or just evaporate them; woosh, gone, too bad.