Price Increase Coming.....

[Sandisw]

If it's in the 220's I guess there's at least a chance the initial incentives will bring it down close to 200pp for 175 points, which is what I'm looking at.

I think that is a really possibility!

 

[cm8]

Who is going to be buying in at these rates if we’re in/ going into a recession? Still no signs of AP coming back either. Guess they don’t need them to sell!!

 

[SouthJersey]

Sharing a snippet from an email that I received from my guide this morning giving me the heads-up on pending price increases for some resorts. We had been contemplating adding on at OKW so I assume that the increase will at least impact that resort.

Take it for what it's worth.....

"Good morning. I got notice that we will be having a price increase on several properties. Please reach out so we can complete your add-on prior to the increase."

Sounds as trustworthy as my car salesman texting me that 2023's are surging and to hurry and buy the 2022 he's been trying to sell me on.

 

[SouthJersey]

Who is going to be buying in at these rates if we’re in/ going into a recession? Still no signs of AP coming back either. Guess they don’t need them to sell!!

Exactly - promotions are only going to get a lot better in the coming months/years. Too many people are in denial for what's coming economically. The CPI data was still garbage this month and the fed is going to keep hiking rates until they break the consumers' will.
Inflation doesn't stop unless the buying demand stops - the only way you do that is making money unaffordable. Surging mortgage rates to slow down the buying pool, surging credit and loan rates to stop generalized spending, etc.
All the while Disney has been getting awful mainstream press the past few weeks about price surges. When the backlog of 2020/2021 cancelled trips from covid is finished as well as the 50th anniversary celebration, Disney revenue should fall off a cliff with the rest of the consumer market.
Financing a DVC will have 15-19% APR's by the time the fed is done hiking rates in 2023 while HELOC's will be at 30 year highs.

 

[ML_LovesDisney]

Who is going to be buying in at these rates if we’re in/ going into a recession? Still no signs of AP coming back either. Guess they don’t need them to sell!!

I think there are always the select few that can still afford it/will still buy it regardless because it's an emotional purchase for the most part. I know I originally bought in at BLT back in 2010 when things were bad economically still from '08. We were there on that "Buy 4 nights, get 3 free" deal at SSR which is why we bought (loved having a 1BR with 2 kids). I really should NOT have tried to afford it then at all, but I was younger and didn't care about debt like I do now

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I think there are always the select few that can still afford it/will still buy it regardless because it's an emotional purchase for the most part. I know I originally bought in at BLT back in 2010 when things were bad economically still from '08. We were there on that "Buy 4 nights, get 3 free" deal at SSR which is why we bought (loved having a 1BR with 2 kids). I really should NOT have tried to afford it then at all, but I was younger and didn't care about debt like I do now

I wish I had bought in 2010, especially VGC. I’m sure Disney had some killer deals compared to what we have now. The point is, DVC will always a great deal 10 years ago. So by that logic, what we think is crazy expensive now will sound ridiculously cheap in 2033 and beyond. Having said that, I’ve never been proponent of financing DVC but I’m not going to say it’s a bad idea because many people have made it work and even made a profit out of it. Recession or not, there will be plenty of people who have the means and are more than willing to buy, despite its affordability

 

[BeachClub2014]

Sounds as trustworthy as my care salesman texting me that 2023's are surging and to hurry and buy the 2022 he's been trying to sell me on.

Oddly enough, I do trust my guide. She's always done right by us.

I actually found her email outreach a helpful heads-up given that we were the ones who had previously contacted her to inquire about an add-on at OKW. She obviously kept good notes or has a very good memory. The rest of her email also explained when she would be out of the office on vacation if we needed to talk, which was also helpful to know.

Do you seriously think that she would outright lie about a pending price increase?

 

[DVCsloth]

We don't usually get much notice about price increases. I think Disney kind of needs to raise prices even during uncertain economic times just to keep up with inflation. If they are selling a new resort and they keep it the same price, they are actually losing profit because of inflation.

 

[Sunnyore]

Oddly enough, I do trust my guide. She's always done right by us.

I actually found her email outreach a helpful heads-up given that we were the ones who had previously contacted her to inquire about an add-on at OKW. She obviously kept good notes or has a very good memory. The rest of her email also explained when she would be out of the office on vacation if we needed to talk, which was also helpful to know.

Do you seriously think that she would outright lie about a pending price increase?

I trusted my guide when she informed me about BLT price increase because she knew I was interested in adding on. Sure enough it went up a week later and it sounded like not many people were looped in so I totally appreciated my guide. I find most DVC guides aren’t pushy at all about making a sale.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I trusted my guide when she informed me about BLT price increase because she knew I was interested in adding on. Sure enough it went up a week later and it sounded like not many people were looped in so I totally appreciated my guide. I find most DVC guides aren’t pushy at all about making a sale.

I agree 100%. As most know, if you stop by a resort to just tour a villa out of curiosity, they will ask you for your phone number to verify you're a member, and that's that. No sales pitch whatsoever. Well, last month we took a look at the new resort studios at VGF, totally our of curiosity as we never stay in studios, and I guess the DVC CM who took us over to look at the room must have annotated the visit incorrectly and about a week later I got a call from our guide saying he had received a message that we were looking to add on. This is the first time I've ever got one of these calls, after touring rooms who knows how many times, although the CM giving the tours has mentioned before "Oh, your guide is XXX" so they do note that you've stopped by.

Anyway, after saying hello on the phone, I told him that no, we weren't looking to add on and he was extremely apologetic about calling and I almost had to tell him it was ok and that I wasn't upset. He ended the phone call by again apologizing and letting me know he's there if we do decide to add on in the future.

 

[pkrieger2287]

Here's the scoop:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584573295072247808

 

[RoseGold]

I agree 100%. As most know, if you stop by a resort to just tour a villa out of curiosity, they will ask you for your phone number to verify you're a member, and that's that. No sales pitch whatsoever. Well, last month we took a look at the new resort studios at VGF, totally our of curiosity as we never stay in studios, and I guess the DVC CM who took us over to look at the room must have annotated the visit incorrectly and about a week later I got a call from our guide saying he had received a message that we were looking to add on. This is the first time I've ever got one of these calls, after touring rooms who knows how many times, although the CM giving the tours has mentioned before "Oh, your guide is XXX" so they do note that you've stopped by.

I did the real pitch at Poly in 2018, before I bought resale in 2019. After Covid, I did the RIV tour. Nobody had ever contacted me at all about buying DVC, except the mailers I think all owners get. I only get one for multiple contracts in two UYs. I do get occasional mailers from other timeshare systems, offering me a pitch and room.

When I priced out VGF2, I had to figure out who my guide was, and they apparently just assigned me one. He wasn't thrilled to see me when he pulled up my contracts, LOL.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Here's the scoop:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1584573295072247808

All this talk about a possible recession and Disney is like “Full speed ahead!” They are very confident in their product or what?

 

[DonMacGregor]

I did the real pitch at Poly in 2018, before I bought resale in 2019. After Covid, I did the RIV tour. Nobody had ever contacted me at all about buying DVC, except the mailers I think all owners get. I only get one for multiple contracts in two UYs. I do get occasional mailers from other timeshare systems, offering me a pitch and room.

When I priced out VGF2, I had to figure out who my guide was, and they apparently just assigned me one. He wasn't thrilled to see me when he pulled up my contracts, LOL.

My guide is awesome and always available to answer questions, add on points, whatever. He never calls me, I reach out to him. That's why I know that the CM who gave the tour must have annotated the visit incorrectly, indicating that I was actively looking to add on. When he learned that I wasn't, he was sincerely apologetic.

 

[hglenn]

All this talk about a possible recession and Disney is like “Full speed ahead!” They are very confident in their product or what?

It's so ridiculous... From the Sept 2022 direct sales report:
"In September 2022, 139,015 points were sold for the 11 DVC resorts at Walt Disney World, the fewest number of points sold in a month since February 2022 when 132,368 points were sold. September’s total is 15.8% less than what sales had averaged over the prior three months and 25.1% less than the 185,530 points that sales had been averaging in 2022."

It's like they're oblivious to what's going on. But as previously noted, I suppose they can tack on incentives whenever they want to try to spark sales.
https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program/fin...2022-grand-floridian-continues-downward-trend

 

[DonMacGregor]

It's so ridiculous... From the Sept 2022 direct sales report:
"In September 2022, 139,015 points were sold for the 11 DVC resorts at Walt Disney World, the fewest number of points sold in a month since February 2022 when 132,368 points were sold. September’s total is 15.8% less than what sales had averaged over the prior three months and 25.1% less than the 185,530 points that sales had been averaging in 2022."

Something isn't right there.

So we're saying sales were 185k per month average for the first 8 months of the year.

If February sales were 132k points, then to reach a 185k monthly average through August (1.5 million points), the remaining 7 months would need to average almost 193k points per month: 132k + (7 x 193k) = 1.5 million, divided by 8 = 185k.

Except, if September's 139k sales were only 16% less than June, July, and August, then those three months had to be averaging no more than 161k each. That's far less than that 193k average you'd need to get to that 185k average, given February's low number. If we assume February was 132k, and June, July, and August were 161k each, that only gets us to 615k for those four months combined. That's 885k points short of what you'd need to again get to 1.5 million points and 185k points per month. That means that January, March, April and May had to average 221k points. Also, all of those months fall before VGF2 even went on sale.

Again, something seems fishy.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

Thanks for the tip, which is appreciated. The likelihood of us adding on direct at OKW will drop dramatically if they do raise the price again, especially so soon after it went from 180 to 200 per point. If we aren't willing to buy at 200, then we sure won't at a higher price point. We'll hold out for a fire sale, as unlikely as that may seem.

It just seems odd to me that they're actually bumping direct prices (for at least some resorts) given the recent poor direct sales of sold-out resorts.

I would wait. If the economy turns, which it is, dusney will be forced to adjust prices accordingly.

 

[Sandisw]

Something isn't right there.

So we're saying sales were 185k per month average for the first 8 months of the year.

If February sales were 132k points, then to reach a 185k monthly average through August (1.5 million points), the remaining 7 months would need to average almost 193k points per month: 132k + (7 x 193k) = 1.5 million, divided by 8 = 185k.

Except, if September's 139k sales were only 16% less than June, July, and August, then those three months had to be averaging no more than 161k each. That's far less than that 193k average you'd need to get to that 185k average, given February's low number. If we assume February was 132k, and June, July, and August were 161k each, that only gets us to 615k for those four months combined. That's 885k points short of what you'd need to again get to 1.5 million points and 185k points per month. That means that January, March, April and May had to average 221k points. Also, all of those months fall before VGF2 even went on sale.

Again, something seems fishy.

I have not done the actual math yet but I think those few months where VGF sales were so high it skewed the yearly average by a lot.

VGF was over 241k in March. That will go a lot to bump an average. April was over 310 k.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I have not done the actual math yet but I think those few months where VGF sales were so high it skewed the yearly average by a lot.

But when did VGF2 actually go on sale? Wasn't it in May or June? I would have assumed there was a sharp spike due to that, that really needs to be discounted if you're trying to argue that September sales were significantly down, but I seems like the months where you would have seen that are in the June to August range, where the article says they were only 16% higher than September.

 

[Sandisw]

But when did VGF2 actually go on sale? Wasn't it in May or June? I would have assumed there was a sharp spike due to that, that really needs to be discounted if you're trying to argue that September sales were significantly down, but I seems like the months where you would have seen that are in the June to August range, where the article says they were only 16% higher than September.

March for owners and April for new buyers. Those were the big spike months..see above.

ETA. Dropped to 179k in May and 158k ish in June.

July 169k and August 167k.