Price Increase Coming.....

[dvc lover 1970]

I highly doubt DVC will maintain the same resale value it has over the past 15 years. Supply and demand is always a factor too and as dvc expands supply increases. Due to supply increase I would guess resale will over the next five to ten years willnot remain as robust as the past five to ten years.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

I think this so-called “rumor” was a leak orchestrated by Disney to move points. No doubt it’s true and there will be such a price increase, but I think Disney wants to motivate buyers to buy NOW.

I’ll agree if the next round of incentives (Nov 17th) are extremely good.

 

[pinkxray]

I think this so-called “rumor” was a leak orchestrated by Disney to move points. No doubt it’s true and there will be such a price increase, but I think Disney wants to motivate buyers to buy NOW.

I agree. I am on the fence about buying VGF direct. I will probably contact them a few days before the current offer is over to make sure the incentives don’t get better in Nov.

It is pretty much now or never. I’m having a rough time paying $207, no way I am paying more than that. It is now or never. We have a trip in Nov and I hoped to check out the new studios before buying, but I might end up buying without seeing them.

I think the increase will definitely push some people who are waiting to purchase sooner.

 

[BeachClub2014]

I think this so-called “rumor” was a leak orchestrated by Disney to move points. No doubt it’s true and there will be such a price increase, but I think Disney wants to motivate buyers to buy NOW.

If true, and I have no opinion on the "leak", isn't that a good thing for a prospective buyer? Better to know that a price increase is coming than to be totally surprised by one. Especially if you're sitting on the fence.

 

[SLThomas318]

There comes a time at which DVC is just too expensive to buy in. The charts are crazy and the points are too expensive. Resale restrictions and no APs don't help.

Honestly, that time might be now. Both RIV and Aulani are half sold. That is a whoooole lot of points that Disney is still just sitting on. Meanwhile, resale keeps going up and up, because it's still a good product, and the comp is still a Disney hotel room, without spending >30K on this.

VGF sold OK, but that was a couple mil points, no big deal in the scheme of DVC. And even that small project hasn't sold through. IMO, that's a red flag.

If DVC is keeping resale restrictions and there is still no AP, Poly2 has some tough choices to make. Depends on how comfortable DVC is holding old bags for a long time.

I agree… we only joined in 2018, but felt comfortable taking the plunge because the min. was 75 points, the resale/rental market looked strong, and we could get a break on tickets via the DVC annual pass. Our kids were just shy of 2 and 4 so we knew we’d be doing Disney regularly. We could get in the door for a much lower cost and we’ve added on a few times since because we like the product. Fast forward to today, not so sure if we would have taken the plunge.

 

[Jwaire]

I highly doubt DVC will maintain the same resale value it has over the past 15 years. Supply and demand is always a factor too and as dvc expands supply increases. Due to supply increase I would guess resale will over the next five to ten years willnot remain as robust as the past five to ten years.

As long as cash prices continue to rise and Walt Disney World remains a popular vacation destination, resale will be fine. The 2042 resorts may come down in value simply because time is ticking on those contracts, but the 2060 and beyond resorts—they're gonna be safe for awhile.

There comes a time at which DVC is just too expensive to buy in. The charts are crazy and the points are too expensive. Resale restrictions and no APs don't help.

Honestly, that time might be now. Both RIV and Aulani are half sold. That is a whoooole lot of points that Disney is still just sitting on. Meanwhile, resale keeps going up and up, because it's still a good product, and the comp is still a Disney hotel room, without spending >30K on this.

VGF sold OK, but that was a couple mil points, no big deal in the scheme of DVC. And even that small project hasn't sold through. IMO, that's a red flag.

If DVC is keeping resale restrictions and there is still no AP, Poly2 has some tough choices to make. Depends on how comfortable DVC is holding old bags for a long time.

I don't agree with this. There's so much more at play beside the typical timeshare model.

The thing about Riviera is Disney now has a resort that sells for just under the Grand Floridian in terms of cash prices per night, and those cash rooms sell out regularly.

They don't care if Rivera sells out anytime soon.

They got to knock down what 1/3? (1/4?) of the oldest, least popular moderate they own, Caribbean Beach Resort, and trade it for a dues subsidized premium resort. RR is making them bank in cash sales while it waits to sell out, and it has the joy of subsidizing the Skyliner too.

Same with VGF. They wanted inventory reduced at that resort. Labor costs are skyrocketing. These older resorts are so expensive to maintain and if they can't fill the rooms on most nights, why not offload them to DVC?

Instant capital to prop up those P&Ls and less inventory to worry about in the future. No need to discount rooms because you now have less supply.

Most DVC points sold each month are still direct sales. As long as hotel prices continue to rise, they can continue to raise direct prices.

Average people don't even care about the resale restrictions or APs. They just want to go back to Disney World every year and stay at some place like Riviera or Grand Floridian instead of Pop Century for the cost of a car payment every month.

It's not a bad gig. I love the product, but I know what I got into.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Average people don't even care about the resale restrictions or APs. They just want to go back to Disney World every year and stay at some place like Riviera or Grand Floridian instead of Pop Century for the cost of a car payment every month.

It's not a bad gig. I love the product, but I know what I got into.

This right here.

Also, something that I struggle to understand is this whole "When we bought in, it was affordable, and now it's not" argument. They need to pull off those myopic glasses: In reality, when "they" bought in, DVC was already plenty unaffordable for many people, heck a trip to Florida and WDW has ALWAYS been an aspirational vacation for the majority of families. For those families, the budgetary decisions revolved around a single trip to Disney World, not griping about a timeshare purchase designed to mitigate the costs of 30 or 40 trips to the House of the Mouse over 20 or 30 years. Gimme a break.

The problem, for some, is that it has now reached a point where it is unaffordable to THEM. A concern likely not extended to the people who could not previously afford DVC when they could. Martin Niemöller has some thoughts on the matter.

 

[Nabas]

Also, something that I struggle to understand is this whole "When we bought in, it was affordable, and now it's not" argument. They need to pull off those myopic glasses: In reality, when "they" bought in, DVC was already plenty unaffordable for many people, heck a trip to Florida and WDW has ALWAYS been an aspirational vacation for the majority of families.

When we first bought in, we paid an inflation-adjusted $71 per point.

No matter how you slice it, $71 per point is a lot more affordable to a lot more people than today's $207 per point.

 

[DonMacGregor]

When we first bought in, we paid an inflation-adjusted $71 per point.

No matter how you slice it, $71 per point is a lot more affordable to a lot more people than today's $207 per point.

I don't disagree that cost increases for DVC have outpaced inflation, but again, we're talking about an aspirational luxury item, not milk or baby formula. My point about there being families who couldn't afford DVC at $71 per point still remains. Yes, there are likely a larger percentage of families that can't afford DVC at $207, as incomes haven't increased at the rate of DVC, but it's still a line drawn in moving sand.

If we were talking about theme park admission and discussing the accessibility to the parks for a family making a single trip to WDW or Disneyland, that would be an entirely different conversation and you'd get zero argument from me. My point relates to people complaining about their ability to afford DVC points, especially people who already own points and just want more (because no one "needs" DVC points on any existential level), and how the price of points impacts their ability to make possibly dozens of trips when many families struggle to afford even a single trip in a lifetime.

 

[Brian Noble]

The problem, for some, is that it has now reached a point where it is unaffordable to THEM.

I'm not even sure it isn't affordable, so much as there's an unrealistic anchoring number to the value proposition.

inflation-adjusted

If we were talking about theme park admission and discussing the accessibility to the parks for a family making a single trip to WDW or Disneyland, that would be an entirely different conversation and you'd get zero argument from me.

I'm pretty sure that if you look at theme park tickets, those too have gone up faster than inflation. And so has more or less every single leisure activity I've ever looked at (ski lift tickets, major sporting events, etc.) with the single exception of going to see a movie. I'm not sure how that's been possible, but it's held true for at least the last 15-20 years that I've been paying attention.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I'm not even sure it isn't affordable, so much as there's an unrealistic anchoring number to the value proposition.

Bingo.

 

[BeachClub2014]

I'm not even sure it isn't affordable, so much as there's an unrealistic anchoring number to the value proposition.

I don't disagree with this in principle. Purchasing into DVC at any stage of its history has (or perhaps, should) have been about the value proposition to the individual/family making the purchase, which is often unique to their perspective.

When we first did a DVC tour and contemplated buying BWV it was $65 per point and we were thinking of buying 200 points. That $13,000 was a lot for us then, and we didn't buy because we had concerns over the value proposition and committing that amount of money to Disney.

Now, 20+ years and over 500 points later, we do feel as if the value proposition for us has been worth the sunk cost and annual dues. I just hope it stays that way into the future.

 

[NVDISFamily]

This is an interesting thread. I feel like I guessed right when I bought in a little more than I should have a few months ago in anticipation that our inflation spiral would likely continue for some time and this would only cause DVC prices to go up (likely even faster than in the past).

Yes the Fed is playing chicken with the economy and it's going to get rough in the coming months, but I won't be shocked if 8 percent inflation is just accepted as the new normal and they push rates back to zero ASAP as soon as unemployment starts to inch up. I expect the madness and the money printer to go back to 11 soon. I'm already seeing articles from mainstream news outlets declaring how 8% inflation is a good thing.

There are plenty of young professionals making good money and having babies who will want to buy into the Disney dream and some of them (like me) will stumble into DVC and buy it. The increases in wages in my profession for new associates is silly. When they talk about how much they make after only a few years on the job they are breaking into the 6 figure range in half the time it took for when I started (on average - I don't encourage that young professionals talk about salary but for some reason they are more open about the conversation.....).

I do understand that this program is changing and I see the majority position by most who have been in it for a while was as a great value for stays in awesome studio rooms in higher end resorts. It seems like the math isn't as good there as it used to be. It also seems like Disney is pushing more towards the upper middle class as their main target audience. When I look at the value of what I am getting carried forward 20 to 30 years it's a no brainer to buy DVC. I try and stay in a nice room when I travel and prefer suites when possible. If DVC didn't exist there would be no way I'd want to pay the 1,500 a night rack rates for a 1 or 2BR suite and I would have likely looked to stay off property in a nice room for 400 to 600 a night vs on property for a studio for that same price.

I'm not even sure it isn't affordable, so much as there's an unrealistic anchoring number to the value proposition.

Yea I'm not 100% sure why they have that 150 point minimum. A random thought is one has a higher chance to change their plans and book a 1 or 2 BR room if you buy in at 150 and are also "gifted" points for the prior use year (at some resorts). Instead of sticking to your plans to buy enough to book that studio for 7 nights every year you have too much fun at you welcome home stay and now need more points.....

 

[Brian Noble]

What I meant by "anchoring" is that folks who have owned for a while have prior experience with what they think the price should be, and that colors their perceptions of what the price actually is. Someone who has never investigated a DVC purchase doesn't have that reference point, and so they evaluate the current price based only on current circumstances.

 

[DonMacGregor]

What I meant by "anchoring" is that folks who have owned for a while have prior experience with what they think the price should be, and that colors their perceptions of what the price actually is. Someone who has never investigated a DVC purchase doesn't have that reference point, and so they evaluate the current price based only on current circumstances.

Precisely.

 

[BeachClub2014]

What I meant by "anchoring" is that folks who have owned for a while have prior experience with what they think the price should be, and that colors their perceptions of what the price actually is. Someone who has never investigated a DVC purchase doesn't have that reference point, and so they evaluate the current price based only on current circumstances.

Totally agree with you on this whole point. Anyone contemplating a purchase should evaluate the value proposition of what is today, and what they feel the future may hold, and not what happened in the past. That value proposition may be different for everyone.

I've seen many posts here on the DIS in various threads indicating that there is no financial argument to be made to purchase a 2042 resort, either via resale or directly from DVC. The math is certainly important, but the value proposition to the prospective buyer is also meaningful.

 

[NVDISFamily]

What I meant by "anchoring" is that folks who have owned for a while have prior experience with what they think the price should be, and that colors their perceptions of what the price actually is. Someone who has never investigated a DVC purchase doesn't have that reference point, and so they evaluate the current price based only on current circumstances.

Makes sense. I think I was interpreting it more as a price floor.

I didn’t know about DVC until just under a year ago. The product still makes sense to me and seems like it adds value and helps our family achieve our goals (at some costs). I do see that things have taken a turn and Disney doesn’t seem to be as “fair” with DVC based on the history I get from you veterans of the program.

Disney also seems to be doing the same thing with most other areas of the theme park and hotel options. I often chat with my grandma about the prices she paid over the years to get into Disneyland and she remarks that annual passes that had unlimited access were just over a hundred bucks in the 80s. I remember thinking the premium pass I got in 2001 for 500 or so bucks was expensive back then.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

What I meant by "anchoring" is that folks who have owned for a while have prior experience with what they think the price should be, and that colors their perceptions of what the price actually is. Someone who has never investigated a DVC purchase doesn't have that reference point, and so they evaluate the current price based only on current circumstances.

This doesn’t just apply to DVC. It applies to the entire Disney experience. There is so much sentiment these days from old timers about how the magic is gone, especially under Chapek. I can understand some of it but the parks are more crowded than ever and I’m not sure why all these people would be there if the experience was so terrible.

 

[Ms Bibbidi]

I've seen many posts here on the DIS in various threads indicating that there is no financial argument to be made to purchase a 2042 resort, either via resale or directly from DVC. The math is certainly important, but the value proposition to the prospective buyer is also meaningful.

What if you are already 72 and have no heirs/family.

 

[BeachClub2014]

What if you are already 72 and have no heirs/family.

I assume that you're trying to make some point counter to mine, but I will bite.

Then that 72-year-old with no heirs/family would need to determine for him/herself whether there is enough value to them to make the purchase.

ETA:
Perhaps the 72-year-old with no heirs/family has a ton of money, loves WDW, is of generous spirit, and will use those points for the Make-A-Wish foundation or some other charity. One never really knows.