Price Increase Coming.....

[DonMacGregor]

March for owners and April for new buyers. Those were the big spike months..see above.

ETA. Dropped to 179k in May and 158k ish in June.

Precisely. The numbers quoted are really shewed and don't hold up when placed in the appropriate context.

It's like saying "Tax refunds dropped significantly in May, and even further in June, after a monthly high in April."

 

[BeachClub2014]

I would wait. If the economy turns, which it is, dusney will be forced to adjust prices accordingly.

Yeah, there's no way we would add on at $200, let alone the new price. We will keep looking for a resale that fits our needs.

 

[Sandisw]

Precisely. The numbers quoted are really shewed and don't hold up when placed in the appropriate context.

Yes those months have skewed the yearly average but I’m sure this isn’t the first time a new resort had brisk sales to start which impacted things.

But still September is only down from August a little less than 20% which I think what was trying to be conveyed.

And that September tends to be this way.

 

[DonMacGregor]

But still September is only down from August a little less than 20% which I think what was trying to be conveyed.

And September is up 5% over February, even after 5 Fed interest rate hikes (including one IN September)... LOL

 

[Genie+]

The point is, DVC will always a great deal 10 years ago.

It’s easy to imagine DVC increasing in value over time since that’s mostly what has happened. But will it continue that way? Or could it be reaching its peak where people buying over the next few years are not able to recoup a bulk of their buy-in when selling after 10+ years.

I’m wary, at least enough to warn my niece not to expect DVC’s past to necessarily predict the future. Don’t depend on good future resale returns to make your math work. Propping up direct by devaluing resale seems the current DVC strategy. If they keep leaning that way with future changes, it will impact offloading resale. We may never again see something like Direct AKV under $120 around 2010/11, using the contract for a over a decade, then reselling for nearly the same cost. There were very specific circumstances involved between the economies and park popularity. I don’t expect a repeat of what we’ve witnessed this past decade. Between the much higher cost of buy-in and point charts, plus potential decrease in resale values… likely much less meat left on the bone to depend on financially.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

It’s easy to imagine DVC increasing in value over time since that’s mostly what has happened. But will it continue that way? Or could it be reaching its peak where people buying over the next few years are not able to recoup a bulk of their buy-in when selling after 10+ years.

I’m wary, at least enough to warn my niece not to expect DVC’s past to necessarily predict the future. Don’t depend on good future resale returns to make your math work. Propping up direct by devaluing resale seems the current DVC strategy. If they keep leaning that way with future changes, it will impact offloading resale. We may never again see something like Direct AKV under $120 around 2010/11, using the contract for a over a decade, then reselling for nearly the same cost. There were very specific circumstances involved between the economies and park popularity. I don’t expect a repeat of what we’ve witnessed this past decade. Between the much higher cost of buy-in and point charts, plus potential decrease in resale values… likely much less meat left on the bone to depend on financially.

I'm not a fortune teller. No one is obviously. I can only rely on historical data and the future demand for Disney. As long as people bear children, there will always be a market for Disney. Some are more bearish on Disney's future. I'm obviously not one of them. I'm also not good at timing the market. I bought my contracts based on MY family's needs, wants, and finances. If the value of all of my contracts tank, I still am comforted in knowing that I can stay at Deluxe resorts until I'm a really old man. Anything else is just cherry on top.

 

[Genie+]

I'm not a fortune teller. No one is obviously. I can only rely on historical data and the future demand for Disney. As long as people bear children, there will always be a market for Disney. Some are more bearish on Disney's future. I'm obviously not one of them. I'm also not good at timing the market. I bought my contracts based on MY family's needs, wants, and finances. If the value of all of my contracts tank, I still am comforted in knowing that I can stay at Deluxe resorts until I'm a really old man. Anything else is just cherry on top.

My intent was more of something to think about for new buyers. Like my niece who has young children, she did express the idea of having something of value to cash in. Which it probably will have… just not near the values we’ve witnessed where owners were actually selling at a profit after 10 years. In my niece’s case, the clear point being don’t rely on buying RIV $30k today and then getting that money or even half of it back in 2035 for the kid’s college, lol.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

My intent was more of something to think about for new buyers. Like my niece who has young children, she did express the idea of having something of value to cash in. Which it probably will have… just not near the values we’ve witnessed where owners were actually selling at a profit after 10 years. In my niece’s case, the clear point being don’t rely on buying RIV $30k today and then getting that money or even half of it back in 2035 for the kid’s college, lol.

I fully acknowledge that the golden years of being a Disney fan and a DVC member are probably over. Those crazy promos and benefits were introduced at a time when Disney was still growing it's fan base. Now the opposite is true where Disney has WAY too many fans and they are trying to dis-incentivize some people from coming. Still, many people see plenty of value and benefits from becoming new members because Disney continues to innovate and bring new exciting entertainment. In your niece's case, I would definitely advise her to not buy into DVC if she views it as a financial investment. If saving for college is her priority, I would take that money and put it into a 509 plan and pay rack rate, stay off-site, or rent DVC. I most certainly would not buy Riviera. Everyone's financial situation, priorities, and desires are obviously different. If she can't stomach the idea of forking over $30k to become a DVC member, she probably shouldn't be buying DVC IMO.

 

[Genie+]

I fully acknowledge that the golden years of being a Disney fan and a DVC member are probably over. Those crazy promos and benefits were introduced at a time when Disney was still growing it's fan base. Now the opposite is true where Disney has WAY too many fans and they are trying to dis-incentivize some people from coming. Still, many people see plenty of value and benefits from becoming new members because Disney continues to innovate and bring new exciting entertainment. In your niece's case, I would definitely advise her to not buy into DVC if she views it as a financial investment. If saving for college is her priority, I would take that money and put it into a 509 plan and pay rack rate, stay off-site, or rent DVC. I most certainly would not buy Riviera. Everyone's financial situation, priorities, and desires are obviously different. If she can't stomach the idea of forking over $30k to become a DVC member, she probably shouldn't be buying DVC IMO.

Exactly.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I bought my contracts based on MY family's needs, wants, and finances. If the value of all of my contracts tank, I still am comforted in knowing that I can stay at Deluxe resorts until I'm a really old man. Anything else is just cherry on top.

This is us. I look at DVC like a car: its value is in the use and enjoyment I derive during ownership, not in its trade-in or Craig's List value when it's 10 years old and has 150k on the odometer. If I can get a few bucks out of it after all of that useful benefit and driving it into the weeds, then I'm in high cotton.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

This is us. I look at DVC like a car: its value is in the use and enjoyment I derive during ownership, not in its trade-in or Craig's List value when it's 10 years old and has 150k on the odometer. If I can get a few bucks out of it after all of that useful benefit and driving it into the weeds, then I'm in high cotton.

Not just any car. I see it as a chance to drive a Lamborghini, Ferrari, and other "Deluxe" automobiles for the next 50 years!

 

[DonMacGregor]

Not just any car. I see it as a chance to drive a Lamborghini, Ferrari, and other "Deluxe" automobiles for the next 50 years!

Well, maybe a Lexus or an Infinity...

 

[Genie+]

I think it’s an easy jump for people looking to buy, see the past track record and figure they can depend on the initial cost minus years used to estimate resale value up the road if they need to cash out or when they no longer need it. As they say, timing is everything. Can’t depend on getting the prorated value.

 

[RichVIII]

That potential resale value certainly made our potential exit strategy a little more tolerable of the costs. I am like other, I would not advise others that it even exists. Buy to lock-in discounted rates at one resort with the possibility of maybe staying at others.

 

[Cfabar1]

Disney will adjust if they feel the need to, but right now it is so hard to get a reservation at Disney resorts, and the daily nightly rate is so obscenely high, that people will find the value.

Their bigger potential downside is if they keep increasing contract minimums. One of the biggest advantages resale has right now is that you can buy 50 or 75 point contracts, something you can no longer do directly as a new buyer.

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

Well, maybe a Lexus or an Infinity...

at Lamorghini prices!

 

[Roughians_satchel]

I'm not sure a major downturn will hit DVC as much as the rest of the company. While they have affected sales in the past, we're currently in an inflationary cycle that has never existed over the life of DVC. In some ways, buying into DVC is a hedge AGAINST inflation if you're a young family who plans to bring their kids to Disney for years to come.

 

[RichVIII]

Disney will adjust if they feel the need to, but right now it is so hard to get a reservation at Disney resorts, and the daily nightly rate is so obscenely high, that people will find the value.

Their bigger potential downside is if they keep increasing contract minimums. One of the biggest advantages resale has right now is that you can buy 50 or 75 point contracts, something you can no longer do directly as a new buyer.

It amazes me how many new buyers plunk that down (or probably finance it.) With prices jumping to 217 PP, you are looking at $32,550 without closing. I guess it is cheaper than most s cars and financed over 10 years.

That said, having recently purchased a new contract with only 50 points a different resort, it is hard to really do much. I can imagine the 150 provides a much higher satisfaction level for new buyers.

 

[RoseGold]

There comes a time at which DVC is just too expensive to buy in. The charts are crazy and the points are too expensive. Resale restrictions and no APs don't help.

Honestly, that time might be now. Both RIV and Aulani are half sold. That is a whoooole lot of points that Disney is still just sitting on. Meanwhile, resale keeps going up and up, because it's still a good product, and the comp is still a Disney hotel room, without spending >30K on this.

VGF sold OK, but that was a couple mil points, no big deal in the scheme of DVC. And even that small project hasn't sold through. IMO, that's a red flag.

If DVC is keeping resale restrictions and there is still no AP, Poly2 has some tough choices to make. Depends on how comfortable DVC is holding old bags for a long time.

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

I think this so-called “rumor” was a leak orchestrated by Disney to move points. No doubt it’s true and there will be such a price increase, but I think Disney wants to motivate buyers to buy NOW.