POT (Proof of Time) Race Equivalency Cutoff Confirmed Times

Rozzie

DIS Cast Member
Joined
Aug 3, 2004
I submitted a POT for my husband, 2:04 HM finish. Ugh found found out they placed him in last corral. WTH? On the Run Disney website I still see proof of my submission. Could I take that screenshot to Runners Relations? He is dopey and that is going to be a loooong 4 days....and he is doing it for his 48th bday.

Or is he screwed?
 

DopeyBadger

Imagathoner
Joined
Oct 15, 2015
I submitted a POT for my husband, 2:04 HM finish. Ugh found found out they placed him in last corral. WTH? On the Run Disney website I still see proof of my submission. Could I take that screenshot to Runners Relations? He is dopey and that is going to be a loooong 4 days....and he is doing it for his 48th bday.

Or is he screwed?
Try emailing them. Otherwise take all the info and screenshot to Runners Relations. Sounds like in most cases when the issue was rD's then it'll get fixed.
 

Rozzie

DIS Cast Member
Joined
Aug 3, 2004
Thank you DopeyBadger! He is taking it all in stride---reacting way better than I would be. He says he is just grateful to be healthy enough to run these events. We will be there first thing Wed morning.
 
  • softball chick

    Teacher of Math and Disney Magic
    Joined
    Jul 28, 2008
    So now that POT for the Half Marathon is for 2:30 or better (as seen on today's Wine and Dine AP Registration), do we assume that means to submit a 10K time you want it to be faster than 1:08? That seemed to be the cut off between Corrals D and E and that's where the 2:30 mark was based on charts here. I just want to make sure the time I'm giving is actually fast enough to work as POT versus sending me to the back corral.
     

    DopeyBadger

    Imagathoner
    Joined
    Oct 15, 2015
    So now that POT for the Half Marathon is for 2:30 or better (as seen on today's Wine and Dine AP Registration), do we assume that means to submit a 10K time you want it to be faster than 1:08? That seemed to be the cut off between Corrals D and E and that's where the 2:30 mark was based on charts here. I just want to make sure the time I'm giving is actually fast enough to work as POT versus sending me to the back corral.
    With a change like this, I certainly can't say anything definitive. So I think the best bet is an email to trackshack to see what their "industry standard calculation" has set as the new threshold for 10k POT to conversion to 2:30 HM. I'll go ahead and shoot them an email to see what they say.

    With that being said, if we assume they are using the same calculator as before, then the 10k cutoff will probably be somewhere close to 1:08.
     

    rdelar01

    Do or Do Not...There is No Try
    Joined
    Feb 23, 2005
    With a change like this, I certainly can't say anything definitive. So I think the best bet is an email to trackshack to see what their "industry standard calculation" has set as the new threshold for 10k POT to conversion to 2:30 HM. I'll go ahead and shoot them an email to see what they say.

    With that being said, if we assume they are using the same calculator as before, then the 10k cutoff will probably be somewhere close to 1:08.
    I wonder if this is to put the Club RunDisney folks in Corral E and leave A-D for those with the sub-2:30 PoTs
     

    DopeyBadger

    Imagathoner
    Joined
    Oct 15, 2015
    I wonder if this is to put the Club RunDisney folks in Corral E and leave A-D for those with the sub-2:30 PoTs
    Maybe, but Corral E (the previously last POT corral at 2:30-2:45) has always been on the small side comparatively. Corral C and D have usually been a few % larger than E, then it dips down for E, and then F is usually massive in size. So if they were to move some Club runDisney (and at this point we don't actually know how many people signed up for it) from non-POT corrals into Corral E all it would do is make E more like C and D.
     
  • Kazrak

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Aug 23, 2018
    Maybe, but Corral E (the previously last POT corral at 2:30-2:45) has always been on the small side comparatively. Corral C and D have usually been a few % larger than E, then it dips down for E, and then F is usually massive in size. So if they were to move some Club runDisney (and at this point we don't actually know how many people signed up for it) from non-POT corrals into Corral E all it would do is make E more like C and D.
    I’ve been thinking about this a bit during a boring meeting.

    If there is a ‘money grab’ aspect to changing the PoT time, I don’t think it’s giving corral E to the Club Platinum members. They did give a choice of what would be corrals E-H in the self-reported PoT. Even if they give corral E to Club runDisney Platinum, they’d just push the rest back to be corrals F-I. I assume they still have the big corral-marker balls back to P or however far they used to go.

    However, by making the PoT cutoff harder to make, they increase the number of people who might be willing to pay the $800 to start ahead of the PoT-less rabble. After all, if you can get into a 1700-person corral E with a 1:13 10k, that corral boost is nowhere near as appealing as it would be when you’re looking at an 8000-person corral E. (Actual sizes for Princess, before adjustments at the Expo, were 1678 for D and 8102 for E.)

    Disney being Disney, I doubt this is being done for just one reason. “Making people more willing to pay for CrD Platinum” may be a reason, as is “Maybe we can spread out the non-PoT people a little more”, as is “This cuts the number of PoTs we need to check by 25%”. There’s probably more reasons that we (or at least I) don’t know.
     

    MermaidLagoonResident

    Mouseketeer
    Joined
    May 2, 2019
    ughhh I am right on the edge of this *possible* new pot bubble. Granted I've never been great (oops!) at sticking to a training plan all the way through, so who knows if I could be fast enough to make a difference if I was to make my whole way through (goals to work towards!).

    The race I had been using for a pot will have expired by the next time I sign up but it had me a 1 hour 10 minutes for a 10km, sooo close!

    Guess its time to play the waiting game to see if this change is across the board and then stick to a training plan and hustle!
     

    DopeyBadger

    Imagathoner
    Joined
    Oct 15, 2015
    I’ve been thinking about this a bit during a boring meeting.

    If there is a ‘money grab’ aspect to changing the PoT time, I don’t think it’s giving corral E to the Club Platinum members. They did give a choice of what would be corrals E-H in the self-reported PoT. Even if they give corral E to Club runDisney Platinum, they’d just push the rest back to be corrals F-I. I assume they still have the big corral-marker balls back to P or however far they used to go.

    However, by making the PoT cutoff harder to make, they increase the number of people who might be willing to pay the $800 to start ahead of the PoT-less rabble. After all, if you can get into a 1700-person corral E with a 1:13 10k, that corral boost is nowhere near as appealing as it would be when you’re looking at an 8000-person corral E. (Actual sizes for Princess, before adjustments at the Expo, were 1678 for D and 8102 for E.)

    Disney being Disney, I doubt this is being done for just one reason. “Making people more willing to pay for CrD Platinum” may be a reason, as is “Maybe we can spread out the non-PoT people a little more”, as is “This cuts the number of PoTs we need to check by 25%”. There’s probably more reasons that we (or at least I) don’t know.
    This is definitely plausible and not something I'd put past Disney.
     
  • *DisneyDreamer

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Jan 16, 2007
    This is definitely motivation to train a little harder for next time I do a Disney race, because I do not want to be in those massive corrals. I have a 2:24 half time but it’s from last April. If I do Princess next year I think it will still be valid but if not I hope I can get around that time again.
     

    xjillianpaige

    adventure is out there
    Joined
    Jan 24, 2012
    Do ya'll think that this is going to impact the full POT as well? Will that cut off be changed by 15 minutes as well?
     

    PCFriar80

    DIS Veteran
    Joined
    Dec 19, 2004
    if they change the full, too, my guess is that it will be by 30 minutes, not 15.
    The only thing I would add is that the W&D half is a different course than the MW 1/2 so this may be just a logistical [capacity] planning consideration. I know you asked about the full, but just wanted to point out the differences. In direct answer to the full for MW, only time will tell!
     

    DopeyBadger

    Imagathoner
    Joined
    Oct 15, 2015
    Alright, so I have received confirmation from Track Shack on the new POT cutoffs for the HM. They have also confirmed this will be the new standard moving forward for all HMs not just Wine and Dine 2020. They didn't mention anything about the M POT because I didn't ask them about it.

    Screen Shot 2020-03-10 at 3.33.00 PM.png

    The new cutoffs for a 2:30 HM are:

    10k - 1:08
    12k - 1:23
    15k - 1:45
    10mi - 1:54
    M - 5:27 (although I didn't list this one in the graph)

    As is the standard addendum with this chart above, these are best guess extrapolations based on math and are by no means official. They're a good measure to judge by though for corral placement.

    Both the choice of 10 miler cutoff and M cutoff show a distinct advantage to submitting a time from either of those categories instead of the 10k, 12k, or 15k time.

    Screen Shot 2020-03-10 at 3.36.28 PM.png

    The chart above is a reverse calculation of the classic Riegel formula. My goal was to determine the R-value being used for each of the distances. In the past, I've estimated the Riegel R-value to be 1.055 for the HM POT conversions. The 10k, 12k, and 15k values are very close to that and well within rounding margins. But the 10 miler and M are distinctly different. For instance in a 10 miler, the normal 1.060 R-value like the 10k uses would say you would need a 1:52:35 10 miler for a 2:30 HM equivalent. But using the 1.014 value means a 1:54:00 converts to a 2:30 HM. So the 10 miler and M conversions are more generous. This was true with the old set of data, but not by as much.
     

    SheHulk

    Coming soon to Disney+
    Joined
    Oct 5, 2016
    Alright, so I have received confirmation from Track Shack on the new POT cutoffs for the HM. They have also confirmed this will be the new standard moving forward for all HMs not just Wine and Dine 2020. They didn't mention anything about the M POT because I didn't ask them about it.

    View attachment 480138

    The new cutoffs for a 2:30 HM are:

    10k - 1:08
    12k - 1:23
    15k - 1:45
    10mi - 1:54
    M - 5:27 (although I didn't list this one in the graph)

    As is the standard addendum with this chart above, these are best guess extrapolations based on math and are by no means official. They're a good measure to judge by though for corral placement.

    Both the choice of 10 miler cutoff and M cutoff show a distinct advantage to submitting a time from either of those categories instead of the 10k, 12k, or 15k time.

    View attachment 480139

    The chart above is a reverse calculation of the classic Riegel formula. My goal was to determine the R-value being used for each of the distances. In the past, I've estimated the Riegel R-value to be 1.055 for the HM POT conversions. The 10k, 12k, and 15k values are very close to that and well within rounding margins. But the 10 miler and M are distinctly different. For instance in a 10 miler, the normal 1.060 R-value like the 10k uses would say you would need a 1:52:35 10 miler for a 2:30 HM equivalent. But using the 1.014 value means a 1:54:00 converts to a 2:30 HM. So the 10 miler and M conversions are more generous. This was true with the old set of data, but not by as much.
    You can submit odd distances like a 12k or 15k for a half proof of time??
     

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