Poly Tower Speculation

[emchen]

Sandi kinda beat me to it, but I think the minute 2042 resorts go back on sale, right after a brief refresh BCV sells like crazy.

I agree. The mantra: location location location! Will keep proving true over and over and over again.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Proterra battery electric buses like ones at DLR is what is needed.

Proterra just filed for bankruptcy! I thought they would do very well as a company I'm surprised. I guess EV is still very niche for the foreseeable future.

As for Poly2 I think the argument for separate makes the most sense and is probably the way DVD planned it from the start unless...

The only way I think it it becomes part of PVB is if the current leadership either panics or is forced by a panicking board/Iger to "do whatever it takes" to make the next few quarters look good to Wall Street. Shareholders are NOT happy (I know from experience) and I think Wall Street and the media are getting more vocal and on Iger's case. The one thing that could be a small clue is his mention of DVC underperformance. Why mention this when you never really do and DVC didn't even underperform THAT poorly. Someone previously mentioned in another thread that it may be that Diercksen will be replaced and the whole thing could lead to an organizational shift where selling as many points as fast as possible becomes priority number one.

I'd still bet that it's new association but like others have mentioned I'm closer to 50/50.

 

[zavandor]

When VGF2 went on sale, the resale market for VGF1 was very small and contracts were selling for more than direct (it since adjusted downward)! Competition with the resale market wasn't an issue.
This is not true at Poly, it's a large resort and there are a lot of contracts for sale with a good discount over direct prices.
How will Poly 2 impact the Poly 1 resale market?
If Poly2 is a new resort, probably Poly1 prices will go down, because of Poly lovers who are stuck with studios but want to upgrade and because new buyers will want a resort with more options. But that means that if Poly1 is much cheaper than direct it will be a more direct competitor for people who only want studios, which we know are the majority.
If Poly2 is the same association, then likely the resale price of Poly1 will stay the same or increase, because people who are selling because they want larger units will keep their contracts, making a direct purchase (with access to Riviera, VDH and FW cabins) more palatable.

I still think from a DVC perspective makes more sense to have a separate association but with the same expiration as Poly 1, so they can resell both at the same time in less than 50 years from now. But competition with the resale market is a point in favor of the same association.

 

[emchen]

Proterra just filed for bankruptcy! I thought they would do very well as a company I'm surprised. I guess EV is still very niche for the foreseeable future.

I work in SoCal Antelope Valley, where BYD has a huge factory making EV Buses. I believe DLR uses them but I just wrote Proterra cuz more people probably have heard that brand associated with electric buses. BYD is financially strong though, so c'mon Disney!

 

[emchen]

When VGF2 went on sale, the resale market for VGF1 was very small and contracts were selling for more than direct (it since adjusted downward)!

I got a price per point of $131 at the end of July direct from DVD...VGF2 is still selling for less than average resale contracts. Note, this is after projected rent-out of all 2023 points at $18pp.

I'm looking at 200 point direct contract for RIV now...at 200 point incentive level, price is $130 pp after anticipated rent-out of all 2023 points.

 

[zavandor]

I got a price per point of $131 at the end of July direct from DVD...VGF2 is still selling for less than average resale contracts. Note, this is after projected rent-out of all 2023 points at $18pp.

I'm looking at 200 point direct contract for RIV now...at 200 point incentive level, price is $130 pp after anticipated rent-out of all 2023 points.

How many points? Are you comparing similarly sizes contracts? Also, steipped contract are arguably overvalued (and loaded undervalued) on the resale market.

 

[mort1331]

If PV2 is joined with PV1...would that then make it the 2nd largest resort point total. I know SSR is by far the largest..and then AKL,,,,would Disney want another DVC with that much inventory in one association again?

 

[Sandisw]

If PV2 is joined with PV1...would that then make it the 2nd largest resort point total. I know SSR is by far the largest..and then AKL,,,,would Disney want another DVC with that much inventory in one association again?

RIV is about 6.7 million points. From those who have speculated from drawings, I think the guess is about 3 million?

With PVB over 4 million, it may end up close to RIV.

So, I’m not sure how much of an issue that is. They are also slated to add the cabins next year to the mix which is going to give more points.

There really are so many different pieces they have to consider but I still believe that restrictions is the big one. Because that goal can only be reached one way.

 

[GoingSince1990]

I wonder if Disney ever gave any consideration at all to making BPK a separate association with restrictions. This would have resulted in a similar outcome to the Poly tower being in a separate association, namely, two separate associations at the same resort, one with restrictions, one without, one all-studios (if you set aside the bungalows), one with more of a balanced mix, with the two associations sharing pools and facilities.

 

[emchen]

How many points? Are you comparing similarly sizes contracts? Also, steipped contract are arguably overvalued (and loaded undervalued) on the resale market.

These are direct points from Disney. VGF 150 and RIV 200 (Dec UY so loaded with 2022 points and most comp to loaded resale pts). I’ve tried and could not score comparable per point prices on the resale market.

 

[CraigInPA]

FWIW, just had dinner at Artist Point. Was chatting with the guide at the DVC kiosk. He alluded to new Poly being a new association by talking about it being a 50 year resort. He also said the FW cabins were in need of repair and the transition to DVC fell into DVC’s lap and they are glad to take them over. Again, take it with a grain of salt but thought I’d share.

I'd take anything a DVC Kiosk staffer says with a grain of salt. They're generally the last to know anything, because DVC could end up in a world of trouble by them providing misinformation. You're better off getting your DVC information from a bus driver.

 

[CraigInPA]

The resale/direct gap gets bigger as time goes on. We don’t know why rofr was halted but it aligns with not caring about resale values anymore (If they ever did). It’s possible they see resale prices losing value as a not necessarily bad thing. As long as it holds some value, and then it’s also a gateway drug into DVC. Once people get involved and learn the ropes they’re prime to tempt with direct.

Disney's larger economic problem of declining sales and profitability due to DIsney+ and the recent movie flops is very likely to be why DVC has more or less stopped ROFR. They'll put their cash into finishing up new resorts and ignore the resale market for older resorts.

 

[aka Charles]

KimMcGowan said:
Sandi kinda beat me to it, but I think the minute 2042 resorts go back on sale, right after a brief refresh BCV sells like crazy.

I agree. The mantra: location location location! Will keep proving true over and over and over again.

I agree about location.

I said that they would probably try the simple refresh option on the first couple of 2042 resorts.
The most likely resorts that they would do first, in my opinion, would be Beach Club and Boardwalk.
They would be the easiest to flip and, because of location, would generate the quickest initial sales.
I believe that the sales would drop off fast after that first wave, though.

The other 2042 properties don’t have the location factor to help start sales, so they would have to create other amenities that are desirable to the young new customers at that time. What we, the current customers, desire now may not be exactly what the next generation of customers will want in 20+ years.

We also have no idea as to what new DVC properties will be added over the next 20 years, but each one will be additional competition for sales.
The location, theme, and amenities of each new property will add to the expectations of any 2042 property redevelopment.

I know that it is impossible for any of us to predict how the market will change over the next couple of decades, but it will change.
DVC will have to change as well to remain successful.
.

 

[Sandisw]

I wonder if Disney ever gave any consideration at all to making BPK a separate association with restrictions. This would have resulted in a similar outcome to the Poly tower being in a separate association, namely, two separate associations at the same resort, one with restrictions, one without, one all-studios (if you set aside the bungalows), one with more of a balanced mix, with the two associations sharing pools and facilities.

My thoughts are they probably did not. There was criticism when PVB was selling about it not having larger units and while it did sell, it was rumored that DVD would not do it again…and they have not. .

Plus, BPK rooms are really no different than a hotel room and much different than the typical deluxe studio.

We added on 300 points at VGF last year because we have access to the original rooms. No way would we have done that if it was a studio only resort…but I am sure there are some who added on just for those rooms…with no intention or need to use the larger rooms.

I still think the tower will be balanced with a mix of all room sizes, and why it will be okay as a new association in terms of sales.

 

[tidefan]

My thoughts are they probably did not. There was criticism when PVB was selling about it not having larger units and while it did sell, it was rumored that DVD would not do it again…and they have not. .

Plus, BPK rooms are really no different than a hotel room and much different than the typical deluxe studio.

We added on 300 points at VGF last year because we have access to the original rooms. No way would we have done that if it was a studio only resort…but I am sure there are some who added on just for those rooms…with no intention or need to use the larger rooms.

I still think the tower will be balanced with a mix of all room sizes, and why it will be okay as a new association in terms of sales.

Not to beat a dead horse, but DVD really did existing VGF1 members a disservice by adding the hotel rooms into the same association. Competition for the original building over the past year has increased greatly and made us consider selling our VGF1 points if we can’t get a DLX studio.

However, with the resale market at VGF tanking we decided to just hold on to them and they have now just become points we can use at Aulani…

 

[Sandisw]

Not to beat a dead horse, but DVD really did existing VGF1 members a disservice by adding the hotel rooms into the same association. Competition for the original building over the past year has increased greatly and made us consider selling our VGF1 points if we can’t get a DLX studio.

However, with the resale market at VGF tanking we decided to just hold on to them and they have now just become points we can use at Aulani…

I can imagine the disappointment with having what was a pretty balanced room mix to one thst is now studio heavy in terms of points to rooms.

It did change the uniqueness of VGF being a small resort. I guess we all are learning that nothing with DVD is off the table.

 

[tidefan]

I can imagine the disappointment with having what was a pretty balanced room mix to one thst is now studio heavy in terms of points to rooms.

It did change the uniqueness of VGF being a small resort. I guess we all are learning that nothing with DVD is off the table.

But it’s not even studio-heavy, it’s “hotel room heavy”.

 

[SL6827]

Not to beat a dead horse, but DVD really did existing VGF1 members a disservice by adding the hotel rooms into the same association. Competition for the original building over the past year has increased greatly and made us consider selling our VGF1 points if we can’t get a DLX studio.

However, with the resale market at VGF tanking we decided to just hold on to them and they have now just become points we can use at Aulani…

Did they ever!

 

[Cybertruck]

Don't get me started on Autopia over here! C'mon Tesla, sponsor Autopia and Speedway!

I want Tesla to build Mission to Mars 2.0. Preshow how to build the worlds best resuable rocket. So many parts of the park have wasted space.

 

[MartyParty]

I don’t think you’ll have many add-ons from existing PVB1 owners if the associations are different (I know we won’t)…

Whether that matters or not, who knows. DVD didn’t seem to care about existing owners of VGF1 when it made the hotel rooms in the same association.

As an existing Poly owner, I've been following the chatter for a few months but haven't formed an opinion as to how I feel about Poly 2 being a part of Poly 1's association (or if you're a Poly 1 being a part of Poly 2 crowd).

Part of me would like 11 month access to Poly 2 and the separate bedroom choices. Another part of me thinks it would be better to keep the Poly 2 owners away from the 11 month booking mark for Poly 1. Yes Poly 1 is only studios but they are some of the biggest nicest studious in a fantastic location. Might be nice to have this small slice of Disney heaven all to myself.

But no real love or hate on my part for which way it goes. Its all Poly stays with South Pacific vibes.