Poly Tower Speculation

[Nursemanit]

It may sound simpler to have them both end at the same time, but that would not be the case.

When the DVC resort closes down, it will have to be fully refurbished at the least, and possibly re-themed or even rebuilt in parts. They may even have some add-ons to build new before they can start selling it as a new DVC resort. It will be a major construction project and very expensive.

If Poly1 and Poly2 have to go through this at the same time, there would be TWO major construction projects, on BOTH SIDES of the Polynesian Village Resort. Can you imagine the problems and complaints from that?

Having both construction projects going on at the same time would at least double the costs, if not more, and cause the loss of revenue from both sides at the same time. It also may require the closure of both the quiet pool near Poly1 and the new pool at Poly2. What a mess that would be.

If, however, they are separated by even a small number of years, Poly1 could be closed down and go through all of this while Poly2 is still up and running, providing revenue as well as it's pool, dining, and other services for the Polynesian guests. Then, when its Poly2's turn, the new Poly1 will be up and running and fully available to the Polynesian guests.

While we all know that DVC can be a bit short-sited on some of their decisions, I don't see them purposefully deciding that having major construction projects on both sides of the Poly at the same time is in their best interests.
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I don’t see major refurbs - I see continuous 14 year refreshers- the longhouse will always be a longhouse for theme and towers can be refurbished for 200 years

 

[Sandisw]

Not to mention VGF 2 that had the same 42 years left that poly will.

The real question is why would they want a 50 year contract - it would be better to end it at the same time as poly 1

They want to have resorts that have resale restrictions and it only happens by making this new.

Worrying about what will happen in 40 years just doesn’t seem like a priority.

Heck, I bet they don’t even know what is going to happen when the 2042 end.

 

[aka Charles]

I don’t see major refurbs - I see continuous 14 year refreshers- the longhouse will always be a longhouse for theme and towers can be refurbished for 200 years

No one is going to buy a 40-50 year old "refreshed" property at new direct prices, and Disney Marketing knows it.

Some of the penny-pinchers at Disney may make DVC try the simple refresh option on the first couple of 2042 resorts, but they will learn quickly that they will need to do much more to make the 2042 properties viable and marketable. And after the 2042 properties, they will have to go through and do SSR, AKV, BLT, and VGF, before they get to Poly1. (and thats just the WDW properties)

And all this has not even taken into consideration that the resort/timeshare marketplace will continue evolving and may require changes, upgrades, and/or additions to these resorts just to be competitive.

I just can't see a refresh, or even a normal full refurb (as they are done now), being adequate in turning any of these properties into a marketable "New" DVC resort for future members.
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[Nursemanit]

No one is going to buy a 40-50 year old "refreshed" property at new direct prices, and Disney Marketing knows it.

Some of the penny-pinchers at Disney may make DVC try the simple refresh option on the first couple of 2042 resorts, but they will learn quickly that they will need to do much more to make the 2042 properties viable and marketable. And after the 2042 properties, they will have to go through and do SSR, AKV, BLT, and VGF, before they get to Poly1. (and thats just the WDW properties)

And all this has not even taken into consideration that the resort/timeshare marketplace will continue evolving and may require changes, upgrades, and/or additions to these resorts just to be competitive.

I just can't see a refresh, or even a normal full refurb (as they are done now), being adequate in turning any of these properties into a marketable "New" DVC resort for future members.
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Yes - they will buy them, they bought refreshed 35 year old hotel rooms at VGF 2 - with no modifications, extras or even additional soundproofing .

No one cares about the age of the building of the rooms are nice and WDW is near they will sell.

 

[Nursemanit]

They want to have resorts that have resale restrictions and it only happens by making this new.

Worrying about what will happen in 40 years just doesn’t seem like a priority.

Heck, I bet they don’t even know what is going to happen when the 2042 end.

In these cash short times - they don’t care abut the long term gains of restrictions - the short term gain of just selling points will look better on the balance sheet.

 

[Sandisw]

In these cash short times - they don’t care abut the long term gains of restrictions - the short term gain of just selling points will look better on the balance sheet.

And my contention is that Poly tower will sell better as a 50 year contract and as a new association.

So, if bottom line is the balance sheet then the new resort with restrictions is what will sell as long as the price is right.

VGF has not broken records with its sales being only 42 years and no restrictions so I just don’t see being part of PVB as the clear winner when it comes to sales.

 

[Nursemanit]

And my contention is that Poly tower will sell better as a 50 year contract and as a new association.

So, if bottom line is the balance sheet then the new resort with restrictions is what will sell as long as the price is right.

VGF has not broken records with its sales being only 42 years and no restrictions so I just don’t see being part of PVB as the clear winner when it comes to sales.

When prices the same it is outselling rIveria which has longer years left

 

[tom1944]

When prices the same it is outselling rIveria which has longer years left

I believe if Poly2 is it’s own association it will help Riviera sales

 

[Sandisw]

When prices the same it is outselling rIveria which has longer years left

Other than the first few months, VGF could not outsell RIV until it was priced lower. And it has remained lower since December. They have never been the same price.

Regardless, it wasn’t about VGF vs RIV…it’s about VGF not having strong sales as a non restricted and less than 50 year resort.

It’s been averaging maybe 50 to 60k the past 6 months? Certainly not something that leads DVD to conclude that adding the tower to PVB and selling it for just 40 years is going to lead to better sales.

Plus, VDH has shown that restrictions can be put in play if the resort has something buyers want.

I just don’t believe new buyers will care if Poly tower has them or that they won’t have access to all those studios or bungalows until 7 months.

I guess we will see what they decide but it still lean new association. At some point in the next 4 to 5 months we should have the answer, and may even get it when the 2025 point charts come out in December.

 

[Nursemanit]

Other than the first few months, VGF could not outsell RIV until it was priced lower. And it has remained lower since December. They have never been the same price.

Regardless, it wasn’t about VGF vs RIV…it’s about VGF not having strong sales as a non restricted and less than 50 year resort.

It’s been averaging maybe 50 to 60k the past 6 months? Certainly not something that leads DVD to conclude that adding the tower to PVB and selling it for just 40 years is going to lead to better sales.

Plus, VDH has shown that restrictions can be put in play if the resort has something buyers want.

I just don’t believe new buyers will care if Poly tower has them or that they won’t have access to all those studios or bungalows until 7 months.

I guess we will see what they decide but it still lean new association. At some point in the next 4 to 5 months we should have the answer, and may even get it when the 2025 point charts come out in December.

The VGF sales are strong now that they are priced correctly- 50-60 k is all that is needed a month. I think the scanty 35 k Riviera sales are all that is needed to avoid restrictions

 

[ehh]

I believe if Poly2 is it’s own association it will help Riviera sales

Now that's an interesting angle!

I do think Poly2 sales will be stronger if Poly2 is part of the existing association (primarily due to being able to sell 'two resorts', or maybe more likely avoiding 'oh, no, we're not selling that Poly' sales conversations). But whether Poly2 + Riviera sales combined are stronger one way or the other is a fascinating angle.

I do agree Poly2 getting its own association will help Riviera. I also think that any impact to Riviera would be a secondary impact, less than the impact to Poly2 sales. But maybe it narrows the gap such that the total sales rate is close enough to let them focus on longterm priorities (restrictions) because the short-term is a wash.

 

[SL6827]

What's the reasons some think Poly2 will be the same association as Poly1? I can't come up with any.

 

[PolyRob]

What's the reasons some think Poly2 will be the same association as Poly1? I can't come up with any.

Because DVC just did the same thing with VGF. PVB only has studios or bungalows, not 1, 2, or 3-bedroom GV accommodations. The new tower will "fix" this for Polynesian overall as a resort, but no one knows if it will be part of the original association so all those points can be used on all accommodations or if it will purposely be left separate so DVC can add restrictions on a MK resort and sell it with a full 50 years.

WL wasn't the same association, but BRV was much older than CCV at the time.

Polynesian is around the same age as VGF when the addition happened. The only difference is that VGF converted an existing structure near VGF1 to all resort studios whereas Polynesian is adding a brand new structure on the opposite side of the resort to PVB1.

 

[PolyRob]

I still think it will be a separate association. I don't think DVC cares enough to balance the room types for current owners. I believe the thinking will be if current owners love PVB so much and need more space they can pay to buy a new contract.

I feel not mentioning it was part of the same association on day 1 like VGF is significant.

 

[Nursemanit]

What's the reasons some think Poly2 will be the same association as Poly1? I can't come up with any.

Because DVC has never added on another section and not made it the same resort other than CCV which due to Florida requirements of 40 years on a leasehold condo was forced to be separate. There is no financial incentive to make it its own resort other than restrictions.

 

[tidefan]

What's the reasons some think Poly2 will be the same association as Poly1? I can't come up with any.

I don’t think you’ll have many add-ons from existing PVB1 owners if the associations are different (I know we won’t)…

Whether that matters or not, who knows. DVD didn’t seem to care about existing owners of VGF1 when it made the hotel rooms in the same association.

 

[MyDogTink]

I am going with new association.

DVC/DVD does not need to correct the lack of room types at Poly1. Owners at Poly1 bought in knowing the room types or lack thereof.

Poly2 seems like it will be more of a full resort than VGF2. They couldn’t sell VGF2 as a new association without its own ammenities.

If Poly2 is DVC’s current replacement for the Reflections project, then new association.

If new association, they don’t need to worry about competing with Poly1 resale. I think DVC is on a trajectory of making resale and direct two different products.

If it’s the same association is there a similar issue as with VGF2 being all studios? Do you have current owners booking 1 and 2 bedrooms?

Notwithstanding all the good insight on the forum, I was reading through the sales restrictions somewhere (I think it was the docs for VGF) and the wording about the new project at the Polynesian Village led me to think of new resort. If I was a true new owner reading that, I’d never think it would be an extension of the existing DVC Poly. I’d think they were building a new resort in the Polynesian area.

 

[Genie+]

Once Poly2 and Ft W Cabins join VDH and RIV, likely with another project announced by that point, restrictions could be normalized. If DVC/D can hold out without the world turning sideways in that time somehow.

If the newest resorts go the extra mile in enticing that could be the ticket for new buyers to choose direct and resale owners to wheel and deal the upgrade.

The resale/direct gap gets bigger as time goes on. We don’t know why rofr was halted but it aligns with not caring about resale values anymore (If they ever did). It’s possible they see resale prices losing value as a not necessarily bad thing. As long as it holds some value, and then it’s also a gateway drug into DVC. Once people get involved and learn the ropes they’re prime to tempt with direct.

 

[Sandisw]

The VGF sales are strong now that they are priced correctly- 50-60 k is all that is needed a month. I think the scanty 35 k Riviera sales are all that is needed to avoid restrictions

I agree that the RIV sales are low, but when RIV was priced lower, it outsold VGF for 4 to 5 months almost 2:1. Had they not flopped it, good chance VGF and RIV would have much closer numbers to each other.

And, there was a time, not too long ago, that 50 to 60K a month was considered bad for sales. VDH is selling well with restrictions, so restrictions alone are not an issue.

And before anyone says, VDH is a different beast. I agree. It is....but so will Poly tower being an MK area resort. I have said before that restrictions may not play the same way at all resorts. I'd bet a lot of money if BCV is rebuilt and restrictions are a thing, it won't have a problem selling either!

We just don't agree. Poly tower will sell just fine...if we are going to use the 50-60K a month as a good goal...with restrictions, and with a 50 year contract. There really is no need to add it to PVB. As you said, VGF is selling because its now priced well...regardless of association, that is what will drive Poly tower sales too.

Granted, they could decide to add it in to PVB...none of us know...but given the amount of money they are spending, making it available to resale buyers who will pick it up cheaply makes absolutely no sense to me at all.

 

[KimMcGowan]

No one is going to buy a 40-50 year old "refreshed" property at new direct prices, and Disney Marketing knows it.

Some of the penny-pinchers at Disney may make DVC try the simple refresh option on the first couple of 2042 resorts, but they will learn quickly that they will need to do much more to make the 2042 properties viable and marketable. And after the 2042 properties, they will have to go through and do SSR, AKV, BLT, and VGF, before they get to Poly1. (and thats just the WDW properties)

And all this has not even taken into consideration that the resort/timeshare marketplace will continue evolving and may require changes, upgrades, and/or additions to these resorts just to be competitive.

I just can't see a refresh, or even a normal full refurb (as they are done now), being adequate in turning any of these properties into a marketable "New" DVC resort for future members.
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Sandi kinda beat me to it, but I think the minute 2042 resorts go back on sale, right after a brief refresh BCV sells like crazy.