Poll: Is the recent announcement of new resort investment likely to increase or decrease the value of resale sales?

[disneylandtour]

Last week, Iger and D'Amaro announce that Disney would invest $60B in the parks and the cruise line. Taking a guess: $25B to WDW, $25B to DL (they're looking at a third park), and $10B to the cruise line. If my guesses are close, this would mean (1) an increase of $8B to CapEx for WDW (from the previously announced $17B) and (2) a substantial increase in investment to DL, likely large enough to include park expansions to DL and DCA and a third park at a slight distance from the main resort (perhaps connected by monorail). Almost surely, this investment includes multiple new DVCs at WDW. Perhaps one at DL, though where it would go (if it did happen) is an excellent question.

OK here's the question, is this announcement more likely to (a) increase the pricing of resale contracts (i.e. as potential customers can now see that Disney has large expansion plans over the next 10 years, making return visits to the resorts more meaningful) or (b) decrease the pricing of resale contracts (especially those at WDW), (i.e. as it's now clear that Disney will continue to expand the DVC footprint and that newer resorts are on the horizon, also that, with more resorts, more dvc contracts are likely to show up on the secondary market, perhaps driving down value)?

 

[BeachClub2014]

You might consider adding a third option to your poll: No impact on the pricing of resale contracts.

 

[pianomanzano]

You're forgetting that the international parks/resorts is included in the $60 billion, some of which are currently undergoing major expansions and refurbishments that probably factored into the announced figure. Iger said something around $15 billion in the next decade for Florida earlier in the year during the showdown with DeSantis over reedy creek.

Overall I don't think they're likely to have an effect on resale values depending on what those investments actually entail. A flashy figure like that without much substance really means nothing since capital expenditure typically includes stuff like ongoing maintenance. If we're talking about park expansion, I don't see it having a big effect on resale value much like how Galaxy's edge, Toy Story Land or New Fantasyland likely didn't have an effect on resale values in the past. A new park entirely? maybe. Additional DVC resorts with continued resale restrictions? perhaps some effect, but not much.

 

[TheLyinKing]

I agree that there should be no impact option added to the poll. As that is what I'd vote (and probably the majority of folks honestly).

 

[disneylandtour]

You're forgetting that the international parks/resorts is included in the $60 billion, some of which are currently undergoing major expansions and refurbishments that probably factored into the announced figure.

Most of the international parks are largely owned by outside investors (except for Paris). So you are right, I should've included a line for Paris. My bad there. But improvements/expansions to the others are largely paid for by outside investors. Shanghai Shendi Group owns about 57% of Shanghai. Tokyo is owned by the Oriental Land Company and licenses Disney IP, etc. Hong Kong is majority owned by the Hong Kong government.

 

[disneylandtour]

You might consider adding a third option to your poll: No impact on the pricing of resale contracts.

Added

 

[Vulnox]

I suspect the announcement itself will not move the needle, not any more than other outside factors (rates, inflation, unemployment rates, etc) do. What would make a move would be a solid change that gives a resort more benefit. Like if they did open another gate, or if they extended skyliner to another DVC resort area, something to that effect. Over the last few years we have had new additions, Tron, GotG, Moana, Remy, etc, and I don't believe even with those additions it moved the needle much on resale. So if most of the investment goes to refurbishments and additional attractions it wouldn't fit to think it makes much difference on the resale side.

But if they added something that is park related that benefits deluxe resort visitors, like more transportation options or high value perks (investing in more CMs to do more moonlight magic days per year or something), then you may see a move. Basically, it would have to be an offering that increases the attractiveness of DVC itself, not just the parks.

 

[pianomanzano]

Most of the international parks are largely owned by outside investors (except for Paris). So you are right, I should've included a line for Paris. My bad there. But improvements/expansions to the others are largely paid for by outside investors. Shanghai Shendi Group owns about 57% of Shanghai. Tokyo is owned by the Oriental Land Company and licenses Disney IP, etc. Hong Kong is majority owned by the Hong Kong government.

Fair point, but I still think that some specifics behind what the "investment" entails is needed to understand what effect, if any, it will have on resale values. And I'd say in general it'd be hard to pinpoint any attribution of such investments to resale value. For all we know things like Epic Universe could drive up resale price if there's enough demand to have longer stays in DVC-type accommodations that Universal can't provide.

 

[BeachClub2014]

I suspect the announcement itself will not move the needle, not any more than other outside factors (rates, inflation, unemployment rates, etc) do. What would make a move would be a solid change that gives a resort more benefit. Like if they did open another gate, or if they extended skyliner to another DVC resort area, something to that effect. Over the last few years we have had new additions, Tron, GotG, Moana, Remy, etc, and I don't believe even with those additions it moved the needle much on resale. So if most of the investment goes to refurbishments and additional attractions it wouldn't fit to think it makes much difference on the resale side.

But if they added something that is park related that benefits deluxe resort visitors, like more transportation options or high value perks (investing in more CMs to do more moonlight magic days per year or something), then you may see a move. Basically, it would have to be an offering that increases the attractiveness of DVC itself, not just the parks.

Agreed. Imagine if Disney built a walkway from Riviera to Epcot. That would be a game-changer.

 

[BigDaddyLaBouff]

I agree that there should be no impact option added to the poll. As that is what I'd vote (and probably the majority of folks honestly).

Any resort that adds to or spends to renovate will definitely add value to an existing property. Its great to see future investments.

 

[zavandor]

I don't think there will be any change whatsoever in the short term.
Disney is very good at announcing things, less good at building the things they announce and awful at building them in reasonable times. Put me (and probably many others) in the "I will believe it when I see it" column.

 

[Lumpy1106]

You know what would have a positive impact to DVC, direct or resale? The return of on-site perks. DME, additional EMH, Include G+, early booking of G+ or dining reservations, etc. You know, all of those things that made staying on-site special prior to COVID. This announcement is pretty meaningless in the short term.

 

[disneylandtour]

Agreed. Imagine if Disney built a walkway from Riviera to Epcot. That would be a game-changer.

Tons of barriers. Crossing Buena Vista Drive. Then an entrance somewhere around Germany? There are TONS of very developed backstage areas at EPCOT and the perimeter road that circles WS. Ten creating (and staffing) a new entrance area? Or making a path (and a bridge) to the International Gateway. I think this is very unlikely.

 

[BeachClub2014]

Tons of barriers. Crossing Buena Vista Drive. Then an entrance somewhere around Germany? There are TONS of very developed backstage areas at EPCOT and the perimeter road that circles WS. Ten creating (and staffing) a new entrance area? Or making a path (and a bridge) to the International Gateway. I think this is very unlikely.

Yep, totally understand all of that and don't think that it will happen any time soon. I was giving an example of the type of investment that would be required in order to move the needle on a resale contract.

 

[intamin]

I don't think anybody really cares about the 60b announcement. What people care about is the development of new lands, parks, entertainment. Like when they re-did DCA and announced they were going to spend one billion dollars. People didn't care until Cars Land, TS Mania and World of Color opened. Once those things start to be announced, over time it may increase indirectly increase the value of DVC.

 

[sethschroeder]

I will be shocked if Disney does anything anytime soon.

Mickey Views did a good job of calling out that it takes years to get the concept done, years to get the plans done, years to get the approvals inside of Disney (and outside) and years to build. He said it a little more accurately but essentially we are already in 2030 before we could begin to assume to get anything.

Nothing changed until ground breaking of something actually meaningful.

 

[sethschroeder]

Also I think its more likely to decrease than increase sales because now this big fancy number floats around and Disney has exactly zero plans at WDW right now. So if Disney is supposedly putting in what they consider is a bunch of money than prices will go up and I (the person looking to possibly buy) will not actually see anything new at WDW.

 

[Sandisw]

Honestly, I think those factors have little to do with pricing of resale contracts. What moves DVD makes have a far bigger impact.

 

[The Jackal]

Disney has already announced how much they plan on spending at WDW over the next 10 years. They stated $16 billion, but they say they are going to do stuff and don’t. I’m not expecting a lot. Maybe they can put in a ride to replace Prime Evil Whirl. Even at that it will take 5-6 years to do that. Hopefully they can refurb Space Mountain and Spaceship Earth. Disney seems to have a lot issues they need to fix.

 

[maui22]

Voted no change in pricing.

I believe economy is the driving factor.