Plans have been filed for DVC expansion at Caribbean Beach Resort

[beer dave]

Can the two waterways even be connected? Are they the both type of water or is one for rain run-off only?

Not to mention that they are not at the same elevation..... a water escalator? Now that would be something......

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Not to mention that they are not at the same elevation..... a water escalator? Now that would be something......

Some sort of lock system?

 

[beer dave]

Some sort of lock system?

Yeah that wouldn't be expensive--- I figure you are joking... I bet there is at least 20 feet of elevation difference in those waterways...

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Didn't you guys hear?

Isaac Newton left the "Company" in 2011 to go work on Diagon Alley...so they no longer observe his principles when doing waterways.

It will take an extra $5,000...but we have to get at that prime location...

 

[beer dave]

Didn't you guys hear?

Isaac Newton left the "Company" in 2011 to go work on Diagon Alley...so they no longer observe his principles when doing waterways.

It will take an extra $5,000...but we have to get at that prime location...

lol, LOL.

 

[beer dave]

Some sort of lock system?

Maybe a lift like on Kali..........from the drainage ditch to the water bridge. all U boats..... or air boats..... they could go fast enough to skid up the ramp.....Would have to enter into the Louisianan section.... so they should connect to POR.

 

[Sweettears]

Doing some armchair Imagineering, they would probably have to re-route Epcot Resort Blvd as show below and then get rid of the current water bridge so that the canal could be connect to the IG waterway. They could also let off behind France but this would require building a new dock and then a foot bridge over to the IG. This would probably be a more viable option. Not that I think they are any plans to do this.

View attachment 218355

How about a system of locks? That couldn't cost much.

Edit: Sorry late to the game with this comment. They could add a drop on the return trip ala splash.

 

[Madonna3]

Even still...I think if they move the rest of poly and wilderness fast the next we see is a grand Floridian convert.

That would make my year to know there's more inventory at VGF. Maybe I would get to stay there instead of renting my points out to New Yorker's wishing to book the Poly.

However, if that's true then the rumor about gutting the GF may have some weight - even though I think a conversion is more likely vs a total redo.

 

[Turn the Page]

Yep and yet so simple for me.

Walkway to Germany-I'm buying/adding on.
Boat/walkway to IG-I'm staying some but not buying/adding on.
No boat or walkway (no direct park access)-not staying/buying/adding on (same as AKV/SSR/OKW-no interest at all).

This is about where we are too. We do not currently own DVC but have pretty much decided to buy in in the next few years. We stayed at SSR twice and loved it and given the price difference to buy in we have decided to purchase there rather than elsewhere.

However, I am watching the CBR plans closely. If they add a walkway to EPCOT or if they make it a sort of second tier DVC with cheaper points or requiring fewer points to stay or something like that we would strongly consider buying in there. We would really like to buy where there is EPCOT park access but the price of points vs contract length for BCV and BWV are just not worth it to us at this time. We feel SSR is a much better fit for us.

I'm really looking forward to more details coming out about the CBR expansion though.

 

[skier_pete]

We would really like to buy where there is EPCOT park access but the price of points vs contract length for BCV and BWV are just not worth it to us at this time. We feel SSR is a much better fit for us.

I'm really looking forward to more details coming out about the CBR expansion though.

You are smart to be thinking that way - this is slightly off topic, but there's a great calculation that DVCresalemarket does every year to figure out the overall cost of points at each resort. I've attached the link, but basically you pay a 38% premium to own points at Beach Club over SSR. Beach Club and Boardwalk - along with Wilderness Lodge (that third one completely blows me away), are the most expensive contracts on property when you factor in the remaining years left. If you legitimately like SSR - that's the place to buy. (Personally - I wouldn't want to stay there myself, which is why we bought AKV instead since it's not THAT much more expensive and we love staying there.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resort-to-purchase-spring-2016/

We would love to own at BC or BW, but I cannot justify the expense - I love the location but don't love the resorts.

Related to the actual topic - your post describes how a lot of people feel - and highlights my point about how valuable that Epcot park access would be if they could get it.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

That would make my year to know there's more inventory at VGF. Maybe I would get to stay there instead of renting my points out to New Yorker's wishing to book the Poly.

However, if that's true then the rumor about gutting the GF may have some weight - even though I think a conversion is more likely vs a total redo.

But you'd never see the inside of it...remember they sell the rooms 30 to 1 in an already bloated point pool.

Which means there has to be equal demand or the system never balances.

That was the mistake of Saratoga...and in many ways animal kingdom lodge...

Now about that "high demand" Caribbean?

 

[skier_pete]

But you'd never see the inside of it...remember they sell the rooms 30 to 1 in an already bloated point pool.

Which means there has to be equal demand or the system never balances.

That was the mistake of Saratoga...and in many ways animal kingdom lodge...

Now about that "high demand" Caribbean?

But that wasn't a mistake - unless you think Disney cares about long-term satisfaction. Once a place is successfully sold, they could care less whether people want to stay there. Sure there's some degree of long-term satisfaction there, but I don't think it's high on their checklist.

So the question isn't "Will CBT be in demand long-term?", the question to ask is "How do we get it to sell in the first place?"

 

[lockedoutlogic]

But that wasn't a mistake - unless you think Disney cares about long-term satisfaction. Once a place is successfully sold, they could care less whether people want to stay there. Sure there's some degree of long-term satisfaction there, but I don't think it's high on their checklist.

So the question isn't "Will CBT be in demand long-term?", the question to ask is "How do we get it to sell in the first place?"

Well...that's if you subscribe to the theory (it seems you do) that dvc is only about selling to finance construction.

That's a nice perk...but it's not what the design was...it was always designed to lock in the out of pocket. That's where the profits are made...that upfront "cash" is bled from operations the minute the shovel hits the ground.

This is basic disney economics...I should teach a class

If that isn't the focus now...iger has abandoned it for the future...which lets face it- goes to pattern.

 

[skier_pete]

Well...that's if you subscribe to the theory (it seems you do) that dvc is only about selling to finance construction.

That's a nice perk...but it's not what the design was...it was always designed to lock in the out of pocket. That's where the profits are made...that upfront "cash" is bled from operations the minute the shovel hits the ground.

This is basic disney economics...I should teach a class

If that isn't the focus now...iger has abandoned it for the future...which lets face it- goes to pattern.

Yes- DVC is in fact only about selling to make money. The DVC business managers don't worry about how much DVC owners spend at the parks - that's for the other side of the business. You don't believe they are making a profit on DVC?

Poly = 4 million points at $170 per point average = $680 million That's 2/3rds of a BILLION in income. You can't tell me they spent anywhere NEAR $680 million on refurbing those 300 rooms and building those 20 cabins. What - half a million dollars per room would be $150 million, and you KNOW they didn't spend that. MAYBE...MAYBE they spent $200 million. Another $100 million in marketing over 3-4 years it took, and that's $380 million in Disney coffers.

Sure - the side benefit for DVC is having the constant revenue stream of people coming to Disney every year, but DVC is it's own profit center and itself has to make a profit. That's why I don't believe that they are going to make a "moderate" DVC. The cost to build "Deluxe" rooms, and "moderate" rooms is almost identical - they aren't going to cut their profit in half. I'll believe in those CBR fantasy suites before I believe in a moderate DVC.

 

[Turn the Page]

You are smart to be thinking that way - this is slightly off topic, but there's a great calculation that DVCresalemarket does every year to figure out the overall cost of points at each resort. I've attached the link, but basically you pay a 38% premium to own points at Beach Club over SSR. Beach Club and Boardwalk - along with Wilderness Lodge (that third one completely blows me away), are the most expensive contracts on property when you factor in the remaining years left. If you legitimately like SSR - that's the place to buy. (Personally - I wouldn't want to stay there myself, which is why we bought AKV instead since it's not THAT much more expensive and we love staying there.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resort-to-purchase-spring-2016/

We would love to own at BC or BW, but I cannot justify the expense - I love the location but don't love the resorts.

Related to the actual topic - your post describes how a lot of people feel - and highlights my point about how valuable that Epcot park access would be if they could get it.

Thank you, I will check that link out.

We do legitimately like SSR. I would love to try AKV at some point too. I wouldn't mind trying BLT at some point but I just can't justify the price over SSR. The only thing that appeals to me there is the access to MK. I really don't like the decor at all. I could overlook that for an occasional stay but not for a $30 to $40 per point premium to make it my home resort. I wouldn't mind trying WL but, as with BW and BCV, the 25 year contract is just a deal breaker. If the price per point started dropping dramatically to reflect the shortened contract then I would consider BCV but at the moment, I just don't think it is worth it.

 

[skier_pete]

Thank you, I will check that link out.

We do legitimately like SSR. I would love to try AKV at some point too. I wouldn't mind trying BLT at some point but I just can't justify the price over SSR. The only thing that appeals to me there is the access to MK. I really don't like the decor at all. I could overlook that for an occasional stay but not for a $30 to $40 per point premium to make it my home resort. I wouldn't mind trying WL but, as with BW and BCV, the 25 year contract is just a deal breaker. If the price per point started dropping dramatically to reflect the shortened contract then I would consider BCV but at the moment, I just don't think it is worth it.

I have said for a time that there is a point at which all the 2042 contract resorts start really feeling the heat with resale value. Maybe it's not too soon, but in another 10 years or so when the contract length is down to 15 years versus 40 years at someplace like the Poly, you will see a sharp drop in the resale contract values. By 2042 those contracts are worth ZERO, right? So, 2037, with 5 years left they are worth maybe $20 a point at best? That means sometime in the next 20 years they drop from $100 a point to $20 a point. The big question is that a linear decline, or just at some point the switch flips and people realize there buying a timeshare with a finite ending.

Yes - BLT has more upfront costs, but there's two big advantages to buying there. Relatively low maintenance fees, and with buying there you can actually book the standard view rooms, which are a major point savings. If we buy additional points someday - BLT is definitely in the running, because it is far and away the best "value" of the prime location resorts.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Yes- DVC is in fact only about selling to make money. The DVC business managers don't worry about how much DVC owners spend at the parks - that's for the other side of the business. You don't believe they are making a profit on DVC?

Poly = 4 million points at $170 per point average = $680 million That's 2/3rds of a BILLION in income. You can't tell me they spent anywhere NEAR $680 million on refurbing those 300 rooms and building those 20 cabins. What - half a million dollars per room would be $150 million, and you KNOW they didn't spend that. MAYBE...MAYBE they spent $200 million. Another $100 million in marketing over 3-4 years it took, and that's $380 million in Disney coffers.

Sure - the side benefit for DVC is having the constant revenue stream of people coming to Disney every year, but DVC is it's own profit center and itself has to make a profit. That's why I don't believe that they are going to make a "moderate" DVC. The cost to build "Deluxe" rooms, and "moderate" rooms is almost identical - they aren't going to cut their profit in half. I'll believe in those CBR fantasy suites before I believe in a moderate DVC.

I'm telling you what was told internally for the first 15+ years of the program.

Disney would have never become a timeshare without that carrot of easy tshirt profits.

All your math is fine. But you have to remember that "shell game accounting" is completely legal in most circumstances and business do it 8 ways to Sunday. Debt is "good" and while it's been awhile and some of the numbers have changed...I have no doubt that dvc is moved around for the same purposes.

Seriously...thinking they "make" so much off the construction that they're done with it after is a little sophomore year for you, isnt it Pete?

 

[Turn the Page]

I have said for a time that there is a point at which all the 2042 contract resorts start really feeling the heat with resale value. Maybe it's not too soon, but in another 10 years or so when the contract length is down to 15 years versus 40 years at someplace like the Poly, you will see a sharp drop in the resale contract values. By 2042 those contracts are worth ZERO, right? So, 2037, with 5 years left they are worth maybe $20 a point at best? That means sometime in the next 20 years they drop from $100 a point to $20 a point. The big question is that a linear decline, or just at some point the switch flips and people realize there buying a timeshare with a finite ending.

Yes - BLT has more upfront costs, but there's two big advantages to buying there. Relatively low maintenance fees, and with buying there you can actually book the standard view rooms, which are a major point savings. If we buy additional points someday - BLT is definitely in the running, because it is far and away the best "value" of the prime location resorts.

I never wanted to stay at BLT at all, the theme just didn't appeal to me at all. DH expressed interest in staying there at some point and I just thought well ok, if he wants to stay there we can certainly gives it a shot. But on our last trip we were standing at the bus stop at MK waiting for our bus back to ASSp and it was around midnight, we were exhausted, our feet her killing us and we just missed the bus. We were standing there waiting and I just look over and see BLT and think to myself "it right there. It's just right there!!!!" I could definitely see us buying points there if the price came down but with the prices as they are now, I can't justify the premium over SSR.

 

[rteetz]

Permits filed to fence in construction trailers at CBR.

 

[skier_pete]

Permits filed to fence in construction trailers at CBR.

A fence! Clearly this is all part of the new water bridge!!!! (I am being sarcastic.)