Paid FP options coming soon to WDW?

[whiporee]

What this latest bit of doom and misunderstanding does is ignore that FP is also a functional management tool for WDW. It does help mitigate wait times and does allow guests to get some degree of benefit built into their ticket purchase.

The only way one thinks the Lightning Pass is a possibility is if you're willing to think Disney views its parks the way Six Flag views its, as a daily destination for locals rather than a resort with these parks attached. I think WDW is more concerned with the resort aspects of the destination than daily attendance.

And, with the amount of money that is spent on a WDW vacation, I think there are resort guests that wouldn't balk at all $100/pp/pd. The last thing WDW wants is the optics of some people going over and over and over again while others wait in line -- the worse optics WDW could have would be a family seeing someone go through the line after seeing them go through the line before. So I don't think we'll ever seen anything like that. If they were to offer a Lightning pass, it would be more like the one-time-per-ride thing you see at Universal. And it'll cost at least $300.

I do think there's a chance that WDW will offer additional FPs for a price, but even the optics of that get tricky. Including FPs with a ticket is one things; assigning them a value opens another door I just don't think they'll want to go through. I don't think Disney wants to overtly say what a fast pass is worth, any more than they want to sell fireworks viewing spaces. Those things are add-ons to a desert party, or a club-level stay. Even the VIp tours are tours with a guide. I don't see WDW changing that model.

 

[Jrb1979]

What this latest bit of doom and misunderstanding does is ignore that FP is also a functional management tool for WDW. It does help mitigate wait times and does allow guests to get some degree of benefit built into their ticket purchase.

The only way one thinks the Lightning Pass is a possibility is if you're willing to think Disney views its parks the way Six Flag views its, as a daily destination for locals rather than a resort with these parks attached. I think WDW is more concerned with the resort aspects of the destination than daily attendance.

And, with the amount of money that is spent on a WDW vacation, I think there are resort guests that wouldn't balk at all $100/pp/pd. The last thing WDW wants is the optics of some people going over and over and over again while others wait in line -- the worse optics WDW could have would be a family seeing someone go through the line after seeing them go through the line before. So I don't think we'll ever seen anything like that. If they were to offer a Lightning pass, it would be more like the one-time-per-ride thing you see at Universal. And it'll cost at least $300.

I do think there's a chance that WDW will offer additional FPs for a price, but even the optics of that get tricky. Including FPs with a ticket is one things; assigning them a value opens another door I just don't think they'll want to go through. I don't think Disney wants to overtly say what a fast pass is worth, any more than they want to sell fireworks viewing spaces. Those things are add-ons to a desert party, or a club-level stay. Even the VIp tours are tours with a guide. I don't see WDW changing that model.

FP+ was good for management but with the reservation system in place and the fact it's staying, they don't need FP to manage things.

 

[Liquidice]

They also have 2 more parks and 1 more water park. The math is actually fairly easy if they wanted to go that route. I suspect they will go for a straiggt cash grab as why give something for free when we can bang em for high resort prices, high ticket prices AND and upsell product!

My only thought behind them making it "free" for deluxe resorts would be that people saying at Universal will often justify the cost of the more expensive hotel by saying they're getting free Express Pass so instead of staying at Endless Summer for $88 a night, you might opt to stay at Hard Rock Hotel for $500 because you're saving money with the "free" Express Passes.

I don't know for a fact, but the conversion of one of the Grand Floridian hotel buildings into a DVC resort says to me that Deluxe Resorts don't often sell out.

It costs Disney nothing to give you a "Lightning Pass", so if they could increase bookings at their most expensive resorts it might be worth doing. They'd still be making more money in the overall scheme of things - and perhaps it allows them to raise prices on Deluxe Resorts even more.

The DVC perk could be a big driver for direct DVC sales versus resales - which is also a money maker.

I'm just hypothesizing though and basing it off of what Universal already has - we can't be sure what Disney will actually do. And mostly wishing that I won't be paying $400 for a day of short lines

But I'm sure monetizing something like Fastpass+ makes a whole lot of sense since it is pure profit that they're missing out on. There will be a whole song and dance about it and how it will ultimately make for a more positive guest experience. I'm sure they're already going to say that during the pandemic when Fastpass+ was suspended, guests were more happy - but for a limited number of guests that still want Fastpass+ back they've made it so you can pay for it... it will decrease the Fastpass+ lines and therefore shorten waits on the standby line, blah blah blah

Oh and the introduction of virtual lines will make it sound even better. I wonder if a "free" option could be that you can book your virtual line times ahead of time? That would be similar to Fastpass+ and if they keep the standby line short enough - maybe most people wouldn't miss Fastpass+ ? If it works with essentially a timed window for a virtual pass (Join the line from 12:00pm - 12:50pm) - that could be the free option. Like Fastpass, you can only make 3 of them ahead of time, the rest you'd be able to join after you use your first 3 just like Fastpass+ ... If you don't have a smartphone, you can see the attendant at the front for a return time like the way DAS works right now.

 

[ellbell]

My only thought behind them making it "free" for deluxe resorts would be that people saying at Universal will often justify the cost of the more expensive hotel by saying they're getting free Express Pass so instead of staying at Endless Summer for $88 a night, you might opt to stay at Hard Rock Hotel for $500 because you're saving money with the "free" Express Passes.

I don't know for a fact, but the conversion of one of the Grand Floridian hotel buildings into a DVC resort says to me that Deluxe Resorts don't often sell out.

It costs Disney nothing to give you a "Lightning Pass", so if they could increase bookings at their most expensive resorts it might be worth doing. They'd still be making more money in the overall scheme of things - and perhaps it allows them to raise prices on Deluxe Resorts even more.

The DVC perk could be a big driver for direct DVC sales versus resales - which is also a money maker.

I'm just hypothesizing though and basing it off of what Universal already has - we can't be sure what Disney will actually do. And mostly wishing that I won't be paying $400 for a day of short lines

But I'm sure monetizing something like Fastpass+ makes a whole lot of sense since it is pure profit that they're missing out on. There will be a whole song and dance about it and how it will ultimately make for a more positive guest experience. I'm sure they're already going to say that during the pandemic when Fastpass+ was suspended, guests were more happy - but for a limited number of guests that still want Fastpass+ back they've made it so you can pay for it... it will decrease the Fastpass+ lines and therefore shorten waits on the standby line, blah blah blah

I'd upgrade from a value to a deluxe to get these passes but I'm also shortening my trip to 4 days from 14 to make up the cost difference and since I can now do everything as many times as I want in 1 daytrip there is no reason for me to go back to each park a second day. No reason for me to pay for 10 additional nights on property or spend 10 additional days eating at Disney restaurants both sit down and quick serve, 10 additional days of purchasing snacks and going into their stores and buying their merch gone.

To do this will lose them money. I wouldn't even bother going back because I'd feel like I'm losing out because I'm priced out of getting these passes on a regular basis.

 

[mackmack]

I'd upgrade from a value to a deluxe to get these passes but I'm also shortening my trip to 4 days from 14 to make up the cost difference and since I can now do everything as many times as I want in 1 daytrip there is no reason for me to go back to each park a second day. No reason for me to pay for 10 additional nights on property or spend 10 additional days eating at Disney restaurants both sit down and quick serve, 10 additional days of purchasing snacks and going into their stores and buying their merch gone.

To do this will lose them money. I wouldn't even bother going back because I'd feel like I'm losing out because I'm priced out of getting these passes on a regular basis.

You don't seem to get it. You keep thinking they will be "losing" 10 days off the back of your trip because you juiced up the first 4 spending a ton of money to do everything and then left.

Had it ever occurred to you that those next 10 nights would be filled by someone else doing the exact same thing? (spending a ton of money on a more concentrated visit?) and again, another family after that?

So you are the perfect example. Instead of 14 days of moderate spending on a long visit, they are getting 3x's the spending in that period.

 

[Liquidice]

I'd upgrade from a value to a deluxe to get these passes but I'm also shortening my trip to 4 days from 14 to make up the cost difference and since I can now do everything as many times as I want in 1 daytrip there is no reason for me to go back to each park a second day. No reason for me to pay for 10 additional nights on property or spend 10 additional days eating at Disney restaurants both sit down and quick serve, 10 additional days of purchasing snacks and going into their stores and buying their merch gone.

To do this will lose them money. I wouldn't even bother going back because I'd feel like I'm losing out because I'm priced out of getting these passes on a regular basis.

You make a good point, the free Lightning Pass would probably only allow you to ride each ride once per day though. I'm also not sure everyone will do the same as you with shortening their trip though - Disney World is about more than just the rides.

I still think they will try to offer an alternative to the Lightning Pass that would be free like a Virtual Line with a return time.

I'm sure Disney has all of the data and has crunched what will maximize the profitability - but if demand is truly high enough that they can fill that room right after you - they may also realize that keeping you there for 4 days instead of 7 or 14 opens up that room for another family to visit and spend money, some things like buying souvenirs isn't dependent on the number of days.

They may also introduce new rides that have more re-ride-ability (is that a word?) like the new Web Slingers at Disneyland where you can buy a toy that changes / enhances the ride (Ride DLC) - and will make people want to stay longer.

The free Express Pass seems to work for Universal though and I'm sure they are also analyzing data, so that is the main reason I assume it could work out for Disney.

We'll only know for sure once the Disney Genie app launches and the changes occur though! Fun to think about what might be possible while we wait though...

 

[ellbell]

You make a good point, the free Lightning Pass would probably only allow you to ride each ride once per day though. I'm also not sure everyone will do the same as you with shortening their trip though - Disney World is about more than just the rides.

I still think they will try to offer an alternative to the Lightning Pass that would be free like a Virtual Line with a return time.

I'm sure Disney has all of the data and has crunched what will maximize the profitability - but if demand is truly high enough that they can fill that room right after you - they may also realize that keeping you there for 4 days instead of 7 or 14 opens up that room for another family to visit and spend money, some things like buying souvenirs isn't dependent on the number of days.

They may also introduce new rides that have more re-ride-ability (is that a word?) like the new Web Slingers at Disneyland where you can buy a toy that changes / enhances the ride (Ride DLC) - and will make people want to stay longer.

The free Express Pass seems to work for Universal though and I'm sure they are also analyzing data, so that is the main reason I assume it could work out for Disney.

We'll only know for sure once the Disney Genie app launches and the changes occur though! Fun to think about what might be possible while we wait though...

I guarantee you that everyone who upgraded from a moderate or value resort to get the "free" passes will shorten their trip to recover the cost of the upgrade

 

[mshanson3121]

You don't seem to get it. You keep thinking they will be "losing" 10 days off the back of your trip because you juiced up the first 4 spending a ton of money to do everything and then left.

Had it ever occurred to you that those next 10 nights would be filled by someone else doing the exact same thing? (spending a ton of money on a more concentrated visit?) and again, another family after that?

So you are the perfect example. Instead of 14 days of moderate spending on a long visit, they are getting 3x's the spending in that period.

Not really.

1. You can't be assured someone else will take their spot.
2. There's no guarantee the people that do take their spot, are going to do what you're proposing.

It might be what Disney is hoping for, but whether it's actually reality? Not so sure.

3. While Disney likes those "first time" vistors who tend to be extravagent spenders, they also NEED the return visitors. They can only tick off their loyal client base so many times/push them so far, before they start losing them. If you rely on one and done, you will eventually run out of guests.

 

[Meglen]

I guarantee you that everyone who upgraded from a moderate or value resort to get the "free" passes will shorten their trip to recover the cost of the upgrade

That's not something you can guarantee.

 

[Douglas Dubh]

The fact they are internally even talking about this is enough to know the changes are coming.

No, it’s not. They could talk about and then decide not to do it. It’s happened before.

 

[Liquidice]

I guarantee you that everyone who upgraded from a moderate or value resort to get the "free" passes will shorten their trip to recover the cost of the upgrade

If they end up making a change like that - then I'm sure the data will say that for every family that shortens their stay - they will attract 2 new families that will fill in the gaps of the hotel stay and spend enough money to make up for the money they're losing from those who shorten their stay and then some.

But perhaps the data tells them that instead of people upgrading from moderate or value resorts that they'll instead attract a new group of guests that will stay in deluxe resorts and have the expendable income to stay longer.

I honestly don't know, just suggesting possibilities. I'm probably completely wrong about free Lightning Passes, perhaps they won't make it free for anyone and just charge everyone $100 per day per guest for it like Mickey Views suggested. That would be worse imho as in your example, to keep costs similar you'd have to shorten your trip and stay in a Value hotel.

Disney does seem to prefer out of state and out of country guests though who are staying at their resorts (especially those who stay at Deluxe resorts) - whether they're one and done, or repeat guests over local guests.

They definitely have a profile built on different kinds of guests and have ideas on how much each is willing to spend and how far they can push things. I believe that some kind of monetization for Fastpass+ is coming though, it could be an up-charge over existing Fastpass+ or it could be an entirely new system like Lightning Pass - but it seems like changes are coming, ever since the announcement of Disney Genie.

 

[ellbell]

That's not something you can guarantee.

It's just a euphamism relax

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

Even that is $800 for a family of 4. Which is insane.

If this was progressively cheaper the more days you went the way the regular tickets are so that all this does is **double** the ticket costs maybe this is palatable enough to a large enough segment that the profits they make make up for the people who will be disgusted and won’t come or won’t come back. But if this is really $100-$300 per person per day for every day, to ride the damned rides you are already paying $100 per person per day for, then this is going to flop big time and hurt their business. This isn’t comparable to Universal at all. I would guess that the vast majority of their peopel don’t buy the passes, or do only if they are staying for a day or two. Everyone else gets them through the hotels. For those saying this prices out the poor... Disney already prices out the poor. This prices out middle class.

 

[SirDuff]

It's just a euphamism relax

Were you trying for exaggeration?

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

You don't seem to get it. You keep thinking they will be "losing" 10 days off the back of your trip because you juiced up the first 4 spending a ton of money to do everything and then left.

Had it ever occurred to you that those next 10 nights would be filled by someone else doing the exact same thing? (spending a ton of money on a more concentrated visit?) and again, another family after that?

So you are the perfect example. Instead of 14 days of moderate spending on a long visit, they are getting 3x's the spending in that period.

Disney right now is in a travel bubble from all the families that were locked in for 1.5 years and promised their kids they’d “go to disney world when Covid was over.” I’m one of those parents. That bubble will end, likely in the next year or so, and if they destroy their customer goodwill/satisfaction with this system then they’re going to have a long term problem. If a non-miserable Disney trip without having to wait in hour plus lines for every ride (even if that’s only the perception not what actually is happening on the ground) starts costing the average family $20k+ for a week, then they’ve got a real problem.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

If they end up making a change like that - then I'm sure the data will say that for every family that shortens their stay - they will attract 2 new families that will fill in the gaps of the hotel stay and spend enough money to make up for the money they're losing from those who shorten their stay and then some.

But perhaps the data tells them that instead of people upgrading from moderate or value resorts that they'll instead attract a new group of guests that will stay in deluxe resorts and have the expendable income to stay longer.

I honestly don't know, just suggesting possibilities. I'm probably completely wrong about free Lightning Passes, perhaps they won't make it free for anyone and just charge everyone $100 per day per guest for it like Mickey Views suggested. That would be worse imho as in your example, to keep costs similar you'd have to shorten your trip and stay in a Value hotel.

Disney does seem to prefer out of state and out of country guests though who are staying at their resorts (especially those who stay at Deluxe resorts) - whether they're one and done, or repeat guests over local guests.

They definitely have a profile built on different kinds of guests and have ideas on how much each is willing to spend and how far they can push things. I believe that some kind of monetization for Fastpass+ is coming though, it could be an up-charge over existing Fastpass+ or it could be an entirely new system like Lightning Pass - but it seems like changes are coming, ever since the announcement of Disney Genie.

This system would absolutely also destroy demand for their value and moderate resorts. Last I checked, they have a lot of those rooms to fill...

 

[Meglen]

This system would absolutely also destroy demand for their value and moderate resorts. Last I checked, they have a lot of those rooms to fill...

For alot of dates the values are rack rated180-280$ a night not including the suits. At those prices and almost being sold out I can't see them going back to the 100ish a night again anytime soon.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

I think the annual pass will be gone. It sorta flies in the face of what they are trying to do(if reports are accurate) in curating a certain more lucrative visitor.

As it is explained in the video, they have no problems filling the parks. That was the entire point of AP's 20 years ago to make sure they keep attendance sustainable. Disney absolutely unequivocally does not need that carrot on the stick any longer to beg people to come.

So what Mickey Views is saying is that they are more interested in targeted attendance than catering to swarms of people, a small percentage of which are actually buying merch and buying expensive food/drinks. They DO NOT want AP's who are, by disney's standards, essentially visiting the parks for free and spending no money.

I am sure their internal numbers have shown this to be true for 5+ years now but they are using Covid as an excuse to finally make the changes they always wanted to do. Also I believe Chapek has a particular hand in this coming from the parks, I believe he has been salivating to do this and now has the power and conviction to do so. It's like a perfect storm.

They cant get rid of APs. This is the only perk worth the blue card. Many retirees enjoy epcot and the countries. Also locals have the epcot after 4 pass for the restaurants there. WDW is much bigger than DL and without the APs their businesses will be impacted.

 

[mackmack]

Disney right now is in a travel bubble from all the families that were locked in for 1.5 years and promised their kids they’d “go to disney world when Covid was over.” I’m one of those parents. That bubble will end, likely in the next year or so

I take the other side of the argument. I base my analysis on Len Testa and touring plans as well as conversations with travel agents over the last few years. There used to be a "down time" of the year for disney. According to the words out of Len Testa's own mouth, that no longer exists. You might get a week here and there after a major holiday with moderate numbers but an actual lull no longer exists. This was something he said BEFORE the pandemic. This is a guy who has made a living and is one of the most respected individuals when it comes to third party crowd analyst at the parks. Literally that is his business.

I also believe the trend is now and forever on the side of overcrowding and capacity. Only perpetually getting worse and worse from this point forward, super charged by Star Wars, Pixar, and Marvel IP acquisitions. Hence why Disney is doing all of this now. I believe they know the trend lines and are putting things in motion now, this is a legacy issue for them.

Lastly, just anecdotally, does disney just cutting off magical express like it was nothing sound like a company that is remotely concerned about losing guests or upsetting them? Same question for Land AP's, parking hikes, and dining plan changes? Do those actions suggest to you in any way that they need to tread carefully to hold on to as many people as they can?

 

[dizneygirl55]

Anyone heard a rumor regarding that the FP will be replaced with a Lightning Pass or Lightning Lane? And rumor that it will be a charge of $100-$300???