The funny thing is, the rumor of Disney going to a paid FP has been around since about the 2nd day FP in any form started. This is not a new theory at all, just re-ignited.
As far as having to do something to entice on site stays...anyone taken a look at availability lately? Despite there being virtually no advantage whatsoever to staying on site, there is very little available, even with the increases on capacity - no perks, paltry discounts, higher prices, less services and yet they're still filling their resorts. Will that last once more resorts open? Dunno...but if WDW guests have taught me anything during the re-opening process it's that they'll complain and threaten and then they'll go book the vacations they always book at higher prices with less being offered. Disney, specifically Chapek, knows this and will push it as far as guests will put up with it. So far, the limit has not been reached.
I have a reservation myself after over a year of waiting- but, it's very iffy at best. Because availability is so thin, I booked. But I want FP and I want dessert parties and if neither of those come before the end of next month, I'll cancel. The limit has been reached with me, just wish there were more of me.