Lisa loves Pooh
DIS Legend
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2004
- Messages
- 40,443
Northwest Airlines has issued a weather waiver. I moved my flight out of Orlando to fly out of Tampa--hopefully Jeanne doesn't head for there 
No penalties.
No penalties.
Official Hurricane JEANNE Part Deaux
- Thread starter HumanCookie
- Start date
Thanks for the update!
You didn't scare me as far as my trip goes with the evacuation. I am wondering how close it will be to Disney. I work for an insurance company and have talked to many of the people that have been affected by the other hurricanes. One after another is taking its toll on people.
Barb
You didn't scare me as far as my trip goes with the evacuation. I am wondering how close it will be to Disney. I work for an insurance company and have talked to many of the people that have been affected by the other hurricanes. One after another is taking its toll on people.
Barb
HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
WTNT31 KNHC 242029
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004
...JEANNE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE
WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO
ST. AUGUSTINE...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...
ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 5 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS FROM NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE NORTHWARD TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WE ARE REMINDED THAT FROM SUNDOWN TONIGHT UNTIL SUNDOWN SATURDAY IS
YOM KIPPUR...A SOLEMN JEWISH HOLIDAY. SOME OF YOUR JEWISH NEIGHBORS
IN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OBSERVING YOM KIPPUR WILL NOT BE
LISTENING TO RADIOS OR WATCHING TV...AND MAY NOT BE AWARE OF THE
HURRICANE SITUATION.
AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF
FLORIDA CITY AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST TO ANCLOTE KEY...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST OR ABOUT 225
MILES... 360 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND. THIS ALSO ABOUT 400
MILES... 645 KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
OR NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED BY NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE AIRCRAFT ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE
CENTER OF JEANNE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE ABACO ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF
JEANNE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.
TIDES WILL GRADUALLY BE RISING IN THE WARNED AREA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...26.4 N... 73.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
PROBABILITIES
WTNT71 KNHC 242030
SPFAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
26.6N 77.9W 46 X X X 46 NORFOLK VA X X X 4 4
27.4N 80.2W 7 25 X X 32 KEY WEST FL X 3 2 X 5
29.0N 81.4W X 17 7 1 25 MARCO ISLAND FL X 14 2 X 16
MYAK 241N 776W 4 1 X X 5 FT MYERS FL X 15 3 X 18
MYNN 251N 775W 24 X X 1 25 VENICE FL X 10 7 X 17
MYGF 266N 787W 36 3 X X 39 TAMPA FL X 10 9 1 20
MARATHON FL X 7 1 X 8 CEDAR KEY FL X 3 13 3 19
MIAMI FL 5 17 X X 22 ST MARKS FL X X 8 7 15
W PALM BEACH FL 9 21 1 X 31 APALACHICOLA FL X X 5 8 13
FT PIERCE FL 6 25 1 X 32 PANAMA CITY FL X X 3 8 11
COCOA BEACH FL 2 27 X X 29 PENSACOLA FL X X X 8 8
DAYTONA BEACH FL X 18 6 1 25 MOBILE AL X X X 6 6
JACKSONVILLE FL X 4 14 3 21 GULFPORT MS X X X 4 4
SAVANNAH GA X X 10 7 17 BURAS LA X X X 3 3
CHARLESTON SC X X 6 10 16 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 2 2
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 3 10 13 GULF 29N 85W X X 6 6 12
WILMINGTON NC X X 1 10 11 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 6 7
MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 9 9 GULF 28N 89W X X X 2 2
CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 7 7
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN
C FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN
D FROM 2PM SUN TO 2PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004
...JEANNE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR FLORIDA AND GEORGIA...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE
WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO
ST. AUGUSTINE...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...
ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 5 PM EDT...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS FROM NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE NORTHWARD TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WE ARE REMINDED THAT FROM SUNDOWN TONIGHT UNTIL SUNDOWN SATURDAY IS
YOM KIPPUR...A SOLEMN JEWISH HOLIDAY. SOME OF YOUR JEWISH NEIGHBORS
IN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OBSERVING YOM KIPPUR WILL NOT BE
LISTENING TO RADIOS OR WATCHING TV...AND MAY NOT BE AWARE OF THE
HURRICANE SITUATION.
AT 5 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF
FLORIDA CITY AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST TO ANCLOTE KEY...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST OR ABOUT 225
MILES... 360 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND. THIS ALSO ABOUT 400
MILES... 645 KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
OR NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED BY NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE AIRCRAFT ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE
CENTER OF JEANNE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE ABACO ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF
JEANNE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.
TIDES WILL GRADUALLY BE RISING IN THE WARNED AREA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...26.4 N... 73.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM
EDT.
FORECASTER STEWART
PROBABILITIES
WTNT71 KNHC 242030
SPFAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 45
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
26.6N 77.9W 46 X X X 46 NORFOLK VA X X X 4 4
27.4N 80.2W 7 25 X X 32 KEY WEST FL X 3 2 X 5
29.0N 81.4W X 17 7 1 25 MARCO ISLAND FL X 14 2 X 16
MYAK 241N 776W 4 1 X X 5 FT MYERS FL X 15 3 X 18
MYNN 251N 775W 24 X X 1 25 VENICE FL X 10 7 X 17
MYGF 266N 787W 36 3 X X 39 TAMPA FL X 10 9 1 20
MARATHON FL X 7 1 X 8 CEDAR KEY FL X 3 13 3 19
MIAMI FL 5 17 X X 22 ST MARKS FL X X 8 7 15
W PALM BEACH FL 9 21 1 X 31 APALACHICOLA FL X X 5 8 13
FT PIERCE FL 6 25 1 X 32 PANAMA CITY FL X X 3 8 11
COCOA BEACH FL 2 27 X X 29 PENSACOLA FL X X X 8 8
DAYTONA BEACH FL X 18 6 1 25 MOBILE AL X X X 6 6
JACKSONVILLE FL X 4 14 3 21 GULFPORT MS X X X 4 4
SAVANNAH GA X X 10 7 17 BURAS LA X X X 3 3
CHARLESTON SC X X 6 10 16 NEW ORLEANS LA X X X 2 2
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 3 10 13 GULF 29N 85W X X 6 6 12
WILMINGTON NC X X 1 10 11 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 6 7
MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 9 9 GULF 28N 89W X X X 2 2
CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 7 7
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN
C FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN
D FROM 2PM SUN TO 2PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
MarkRG
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Mar 19, 2002
- Messages
- 6,166
Hmm, eye map, You must mean this one: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
That's off the NOAA site: http://www.noaa.gov The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Basically the government group that manages all the weather satellites and data. It's where most of the weatherpeople and the computer models are getting their data from. It's the 'Latest NOAA Infrared Satellite Loop of Jeanne' first line, 6th from left.
Well after spending the last half hour looking at the maps, I have to agree at least somewhat with the current 'cone of doom' as Miss Jasmine calls it. I kind of thought I might this morning. The other hurricanes are out of the picture, which is where most of the uncertainty was coming from.
The big players are on this map: Click for the Hi/Low pressure map
Right now there's a bunch of High pressure systems strung along the middle of the US. The one that's currently steering Jeanne is the one over the edge of the east coast.
What's changed about all this is Hurricane Karl. He was out in the North Atlantic causing a 'traffic jam' for the High pressure systems. I am so glad that one turned north when it did, it could have easily been worse than the last three had it stayed in the Carribbean. But it being out there stalled the Highs over the east coast. Now that it's moved on the Highs are getting moving again off to the northeast.
As the High moves northeast there should be some effect on Jeanne. How this effect goes is going to determine when Jeanne turns. If the High picks up speed, so should the turning effect on Jeanne.
The one thing that does interest me is the 'spaghetti model' tracks are starting to agree. Click for spaghetti hurricane track model map.
IF this continues then the models should become more trustworthy again.
The simple thing is this for now:
The Bahamas ARE going to get hit somehow. Either straight over the north islands or just north of them. It would almost be better if the eye passed directly over as it would mean less time in the eyewall.
Even if Jeanne stays off the Florida coast, there will be effect from the wall. And that's actually worse. If it gets close to the coast, that means more time in the wind field surrounding the eye.
Here's the curent wind field, showing directions and wind speeds.
Click for the current track/wind field of Hurrican Jeanne It is picking up a little movement speed, but not much as was expected this am. Unless it picks up more movement speed, it won't be near Fla till Sunday afternoon, if not later.
Now for a small personal comment. For me this is the only way I can help this horrible situation. If I could come down there in person and help fix up I would, but I am trying to do what I can in making this mess at least a little more understandable. It's not just an idle curiosity, or I wouldn't bother writing all this about it for everyone to read, it is for your information. This has been the worst hurricane season in many many years.
Again I will warn, do not take any of this as a replacement for local watches/warnings, pay attention first to your local authorities and follow their instructions. If they say evacuate, than evacuate. You read this Shirley? There is a time to be helpful to others, but also a time to protect yourself so you can be around later to continue to help others.
That's off the NOAA site: http://www.noaa.gov The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Basically the government group that manages all the weather satellites and data. It's where most of the weatherpeople and the computer models are getting their data from. It's the 'Latest NOAA Infrared Satellite Loop of Jeanne' first line, 6th from left.
Well after spending the last half hour looking at the maps, I have to agree at least somewhat with the current 'cone of doom' as Miss Jasmine calls it. I kind of thought I might this morning. The other hurricanes are out of the picture, which is where most of the uncertainty was coming from.
The big players are on this map: Click for the Hi/Low pressure map
Right now there's a bunch of High pressure systems strung along the middle of the US. The one that's currently steering Jeanne is the one over the edge of the east coast.
What's changed about all this is Hurricane Karl. He was out in the North Atlantic causing a 'traffic jam' for the High pressure systems. I am so glad that one turned north when it did, it could have easily been worse than the last three had it stayed in the Carribbean. But it being out there stalled the Highs over the east coast. Now that it's moved on the Highs are getting moving again off to the northeast.
As the High moves northeast there should be some effect on Jeanne. How this effect goes is going to determine when Jeanne turns. If the High picks up speed, so should the turning effect on Jeanne.
The one thing that does interest me is the 'spaghetti model' tracks are starting to agree. Click for spaghetti hurricane track model map.
IF this continues then the models should become more trustworthy again.
The simple thing is this for now:
The Bahamas ARE going to get hit somehow. Either straight over the north islands or just north of them. It would almost be better if the eye passed directly over as it would mean less time in the eyewall.
Even if Jeanne stays off the Florida coast, there will be effect from the wall. And that's actually worse. If it gets close to the coast, that means more time in the wind field surrounding the eye.
Here's the curent wind field, showing directions and wind speeds.
Click for the current track/wind field of Hurrican Jeanne It is picking up a little movement speed, but not much as was expected this am. Unless it picks up more movement speed, it won't be near Fla till Sunday afternoon, if not later.
Now for a small personal comment. For me this is the only way I can help this horrible situation. If I could come down there in person and help fix up I would, but I am trying to do what I can in making this mess at least a little more understandable. It's not just an idle curiosity, or I wouldn't bother writing all this about it for everyone to read, it is for your information. This has been the worst hurricane season in many many years.
Again I will warn, do not take any of this as a replacement for local watches/warnings, pay attention first to your local authorities and follow their instructions. If they say evacuate, than evacuate. You read this Shirley? There is a time to be helpful to others, but also a time to protect yourself so you can be around later to continue to help others.
HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
WTNT31 KNHC 242338
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004
...JEANNE CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO ST. AUGUSTINE...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...
ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA
COASTS FROM NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WE ARE REMINDED THAT FROM SUNDOWN TONIGHT UNTIL SUNDOWN SATURDAY IS
YOM KIPPUR...A SOLEMN JEWISH HOLIDAY. SOME OF YOUR JEWISH NEIGHBORS
IN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OBSERVING YOM KIPPUR WILL NOT BE
LISTENING TO RADIOS OR WATCHING TV...AND MAY NOT BE AWARE OF THE
HURRICANE SITUATION.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY AROUND THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST TO ANCLOTE KEY...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.
AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED BY
SATELLITE AND BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES... 275 KM...EAST OF GREAT
ABACO ISLAND. THIS ALSO ABOUT 355 MILES...675 KM...EAST OF THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
OR NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE
CENTER OF JEANNE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE ABACO ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF
JEANNE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.
TIDES WILL GRADUALLY BE RISING IN THE WARNED AREA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...26.5 N... 74.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 45A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004
...JEANNE CONTINUES ITS WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA...
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO ST. AUGUSTINE...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...
ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA
COASTS FROM NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WE ARE REMINDED THAT FROM SUNDOWN TONIGHT UNTIL SUNDOWN SATURDAY IS
YOM KIPPUR...A SOLEMN JEWISH HOLIDAY. SOME OF YOUR JEWISH NEIGHBORS
IN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OBSERVING YOM KIPPUR WILL NOT BE
LISTENING TO RADIOS OR WATCHING TV...AND MAY NOT BE AWARE OF THE
HURRICANE SITUATION.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY AROUND THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST TO ANCLOTE KEY...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.
AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED BY
SATELLITE AND BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 74.3 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES... 275 KM...EAST OF GREAT
ABACO ISLAND. THIS ALSO ABOUT 355 MILES...675 KM...EAST OF THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER
OR NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 150 MILES...240 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE
CENTER OF JEANNE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE ABACO ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF
JEANNE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.
TIDES WILL GRADUALLY BE RISING IN THE WARNED AREA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...26.5 N... 74.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
WTNT31 KNHC 250240
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004
...CORE OF HURRICANE JEANNE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO ST. AUGUSTINE...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...
ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA COASTS FROM NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA
SOUND GEORGIA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE SUWANEE RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST TO THE SUWANEE RIVER...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.
WE ARE REMINDED THAT YOM KIPPUR...A SOLEMN JEWISH HOLIDAY...WILL
LAST UNTIL SUNDOWN SATURDAY. SOME OF YOUR JEWISH NEIGHBORS IN THE
WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OBSERVING YOM KIPPUR WILL NOT BE
LISTENING TO RADIOS OR WATCHING TV...AND MAY NOT BE AWARE OF THE
HURRICANE SITUATION.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE LARGE EYE
OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES..220 KM...EAST OF GREAT
ABACO ISLAND. THIS ALSO ABOUT 315 MILES...510 KM...EAST OF THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF JEANNE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
JEANNE HAS THE CHANCE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL
IN FLORIDA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE
CENTER OF JEANNE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE ABACO ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF
JEANNE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.
TIDES WILL GRADUALLY BE RISING IN THE WARNED AREA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...26.5 N... 74.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
11 PM Discussion
WTNT41 KNHC 250240
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004
JEANNE HAS A LARGE EYE AND THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING. LAST AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN THE AREA MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 964 MB. EARLIER A NOAA PLANE MEASURED A PEAK WIND OF 107 KNOTS
AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THEREAFTER...AN AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED ONLY 95
KNOTS IN THE SAME AREA. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT INCREASED AND REMAIN AT
5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 85 KNOTS
UNTIL NEW DATA COMES FROM ANOTHER PLANE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
HURRICANE. THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED BY THE HURRICANE'S OUTFLOW
AND RAOB DATA. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH A WARMER OCEAN BETWEEN
THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...SUGGESTS SOME STREHGTHENING AND JEANNE
COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.
THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE STRONG
HIGH NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE JEANNE ON THIS
GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SHOULD BEGIN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD. ALTHOUH WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE NORTHWARD TURN WILL
OCCUR...ONLY A FEW MORE HOURS OF ADDITIONAL WESTWARD MOTION THAN
ANTICIPATED WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE FARTHER INLAND
OVER THE PENINSULA. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE HURRICANE COULD ALSO
MAKE THE TURN EARLIER AND SLIDE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. AT
THIS TIME...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE INLAND
AND WILL MAKE THE NORTHWARD TURN OVER THE PENINSULA. THIS IS BASED
ON THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH IN FACT HAS SHIFTED A
LITTLE BIT WESTWARD. EVEN THE GFDL WHICH KEPT THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE OVER WATER IS NOW KEEPING THE HURICANE HUGGING THE EAST
COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0300Z 26.5N 74.9W 85 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 26.6N 76.8W 95 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 27.2N 79.1W 100 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 28.0N 81.0W 75 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 27/0000Z 29.5N 81.8W 45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 28/0000Z 33.5N 80.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 29/0000Z 37.5N 75.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 30/0000Z 42.5N 66.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER
PROBABILITIES
WTNT71 KNHC 250241
SPFAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
27.2N 79.1W 46 X X X 46 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 7 7
28.0N 81.0W 13 17 1 X 31 NORFOLK VA X X X 5 5
29.5N 81.8W 1 19 3 1 24 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 2 2
MYNN 251N 775W 21 X X X 21 KEY WEST FL X 2 1 X 3
MYGF 266N 787W 47 X X X 47 MARCO ISLAND FL 3 11 X 1 15
MARATHON FL 1 3 1 X 5 FT MYERS FL 2 15 1 X 18
MIAMI FL 15 4 X X 19 VENICE FL 1 15 2 X 18
W PALM BEACH FL 29 2 X 1 32 TAMPA FL X 19 2 X 21
FT PIERCE FL 30 4 X 1 35 CEDAR KEY FL X 12 7 1 20
COCOA BEACH FL 20 13 X X 33 ST MARKS FL X 1 10 5 16
DAYTONA BEACH FL 4 22 1 X 27 APALACHICOLA FL X X 8 5 13
JACKSONVILLE FL X 12 8 2 22 PANAMA CITY FL X X 5 6 11
SAVANNAH GA X 2 11 6 19 PENSACOLA FL X X 1 5 6
CHARLESTON SC X 1 8 8 17 MOBILE AL X X X 4 4
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 4 11 15 GULFPORT MS X X X 2 2
WILMINGTON NC X X 1 12 13 GULF 29N 85W X 1 8 3 12
MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 10 10 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 5 6
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN
C FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN
D FROM 8PM SUN TO 8PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004
...CORE OF HURRICANE JEANNE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO ST. AUGUSTINE...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...
ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA COASTS FROM NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA
SOUND GEORGIA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE SUWANEE RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST TO THE SUWANEE RIVER...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.
WE ARE REMINDED THAT YOM KIPPUR...A SOLEMN JEWISH HOLIDAY...WILL
LAST UNTIL SUNDOWN SATURDAY. SOME OF YOUR JEWISH NEIGHBORS IN THE
WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OBSERVING YOM KIPPUR WILL NOT BE
LISTENING TO RADIOS OR WATCHING TV...AND MAY NOT BE AWARE OF THE
HURRICANE SITUATION.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE LARGE EYE
OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES..220 KM...EAST OF GREAT
ABACO ISLAND. THIS ALSO ABOUT 315 MILES...510 KM...EAST OF THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF JEANNE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
JEANNE HAS THE CHANCE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL
IN FLORIDA.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE
CENTER OF JEANNE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE ABACO ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF
JEANNE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.
TIDES WILL GRADUALLY BE RISING IN THE WARNED AREA DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY
LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...26.5 N... 74.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 964 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
11 PM Discussion
WTNT41 KNHC 250240
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004
JEANNE HAS A LARGE EYE AND THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING. LAST AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN THE AREA MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE
OF 964 MB. EARLIER A NOAA PLANE MEASURED A PEAK WIND OF 107 KNOTS
AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THEREAFTER...AN AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED ONLY 95
KNOTS IN THE SAME AREA. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT INCREASED AND REMAIN AT
5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 85 KNOTS
UNTIL NEW DATA COMES FROM ANOTHER PLANE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE
HURRICANE. THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED BY THE HURRICANE'S OUTFLOW
AND RAOB DATA. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH A WARMER OCEAN BETWEEN
THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...SUGGESTS SOME STREHGTHENING AND JEANNE
COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.
THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE STRONG
HIGH NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE JEANNE ON THIS
GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SHOULD BEGIN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD. ALTHOUH WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE NORTHWARD TURN WILL
OCCUR...ONLY A FEW MORE HOURS OF ADDITIONAL WESTWARD MOTION THAN
ANTICIPATED WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE FARTHER INLAND
OVER THE PENINSULA. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE HURRICANE COULD ALSO
MAKE THE TURN EARLIER AND SLIDE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. AT
THIS TIME...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE INLAND
AND WILL MAKE THE NORTHWARD TURN OVER THE PENINSULA. THIS IS BASED
ON THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH IN FACT HAS SHIFTED A
LITTLE BIT WESTWARD. EVEN THE GFDL WHICH KEPT THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE OVER WATER IS NOW KEEPING THE HURICANE HUGGING THE EAST
COAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0300Z 26.5N 74.9W 85 KT
12HR VT 25/1200Z 26.6N 76.8W 95 KT
24HR VT 26/0000Z 27.2N 79.1W 100 KT
36HR VT 26/1200Z 28.0N 81.0W 75 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 27/0000Z 29.5N 81.8W 45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 28/0000Z 33.5N 80.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 29/0000Z 37.5N 75.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 30/0000Z 42.5N 66.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER
PROBABILITIES
WTNT71 KNHC 250241
SPFAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 46
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
27.2N 79.1W 46 X X X 46 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 7 7
28.0N 81.0W 13 17 1 X 31 NORFOLK VA X X X 5 5
29.5N 81.8W 1 19 3 1 24 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 2 2
MYNN 251N 775W 21 X X X 21 KEY WEST FL X 2 1 X 3
MYGF 266N 787W 47 X X X 47 MARCO ISLAND FL 3 11 X 1 15
MARATHON FL 1 3 1 X 5 FT MYERS FL 2 15 1 X 18
MIAMI FL 15 4 X X 19 VENICE FL 1 15 2 X 18
W PALM BEACH FL 29 2 X 1 32 TAMPA FL X 19 2 X 21
FT PIERCE FL 30 4 X 1 35 CEDAR KEY FL X 12 7 1 20
COCOA BEACH FL 20 13 X X 33 ST MARKS FL X 1 10 5 16
DAYTONA BEACH FL 4 22 1 X 27 APALACHICOLA FL X X 8 5 13
JACKSONVILLE FL X 12 8 2 22 PANAMA CITY FL X X 5 6 11
SAVANNAH GA X 2 11 6 19 PENSACOLA FL X X 1 5 6
CHARLESTON SC X 1 8 8 17 MOBILE AL X X X 4 4
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 4 11 15 GULFPORT MS X X X 2 2
WILMINGTON NC X X 1 12 13 GULF 29N 85W X 1 8 3 12
MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 10 10 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 5 6
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM SAT TO 8AM SUN
C FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN
D FROM 8PM SUN TO 8PM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA
Lisa loves Pooh
DIS Legend
- Joined
- Apr 18, 2004
- Messages
- 40,443
I changed my flight to depart from Tampa instead of Orlando.
We are in Tampa now. Traffic was good. Probably b/c people are tired of leaving. Our evacuation order isn't until 6am.
Brevard County is now under hurricane warning.
Before we left the news said that Port Canaveral would close at noon on Saturday.
We are in Tampa now. Traffic was good. Probably b/c people are tired of leaving. Our evacuation order isn't until 6am.
Brevard County is now under hurricane warning.
Before we left the news said that Port Canaveral would close at noon on Saturday.
Pigsty333
I get censored all the time
- Joined
- Jan 3, 2001
- Messages
- 762
oORLANDO INTERNATION WILL CLOSE AT 5PM ON SATURDAY; MELBOURNE AT NOON. NO WORD YET ON FT. LAUDERDALE OR SANFOD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
This was posted on a Disney site for Travel Agents and may answer some of your questions:
Fla.-Based Disney Destinations Hurricane Update
Friday, Sept. 24, 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time
Walt Disney World Resort
The Walt Disney World Resort continues to monitor Hurricane Jeanne. As of 4:30 p.m. eastern time Friday, Sept. 24, the storm poses no immediate threat to the resort.
All Disney-owned and -operated hotels and theme parks are open and fully operational today, and are expected to operate with normal hours on Saturday, Sept. 25.
A temporary cancellation and "No Show" policy has been adopted for travel agents who have booked reservations through Walt Disney World or the Walt Disney Travel Company (agents that have booked through another tour operator should contact that company for its specific cancellation policy).
"No Show" penalties will be waived for any guest arrivals Sunday, Sept. 26, and Monday, Sept. 27, 2004.
Agents with clients arriving between Friday, Sept. 24 and Monday, Sept. 27 can call the Disney Reservations Center at to have an existing reservation rebooked for another time period and to apply the existing deposit/payment, or cancel and have the deposit/payment fully refunded.
The standard deposit and cancellation policy will apply to clients who cancel on or after Tuesday, Sept. 28, 2004.
Disney Cruise Line
Disney Magic Seven-Night Cruise, Sept. 18, 2004
Because the U.S. Coast Guard will be closing Port Canaveral, this seven-night cruise will return to Port Canaveral on Friday, Sept. 25, around 10:30 p.m. rather than Saturday morning, Sept. 26. Guests will be provided with accommodations at a Walt Disney World Resort.
Disney Wonder Three-Night Cruise, Sept. 23, 2004
This three-night cruise has been extended to a four-night voyage with a modified itinerary. The Disney Wonder will now visit Cozumel, Mexico on this voyage rather than the Bahamas. The ship will return to Fort Lauderdale's Port Everglades on Monday, Sept. 27.
Disney Magic Seven-Night Cruise, Sept. 25, 2004
Because Hurricane Jeanne is impacting Port Canaveral, the Disney Magic will now depart from Fort Lauderdale's Port Everglades on Monday, Sept. 27, on a five-night voyage. The itinerary will be:
Monday: Depart from Port Everglades
Tuesday: Day at Sea
Wednesday: Cozumel, Mexico
Thursday: Costa Maya, Mexico
Friday: Day at Sea
Saturday: Return to Port Canaveral
Ground transportation will be provided to Fort Lauderdale from Walt Disney World and the Orlando International Airport. In addition, transportation will be provided back to Fort Lauderdale from Port Canaveral at the end of the cruise for clients that drive to Fort Lauderdale. Special incentives will be offered to those who choose to sail on this cruise.
Disney Wonder Four-Night Cruise, Sept. 26, 2004
This cruise is being delayed by one day and will depart on Monday, Sept. 27 on a three-night voyage rather than a four-night cruise, departing from Fort Lauderdale's Port Everglades. The cruise is still anticipated to sail to the Bahamas. However, depending on the path and impact of Hurricane Jeanne, it may be necessary to eliminate calls to Castaway Cay and to Nassau. In this event, Disney Cruise Line will explore the potential to visit other ports or to have days at sea.
Disney Cruise Line is offering discount incentives to clients who still choose to sail on this cruise. Agents who booked air travel for their clients should change only the inbound flight to Florida. Complications related to the ship's return to Port Canaveral on Thursday, Sept. 30 are not expected, so agents should not reschedule return flights.
This was posted on a Disney site for Travel Agents and may answer some of your questions:
Fla.-Based Disney Destinations Hurricane Update
Friday, Sept. 24, 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time
Walt Disney World Resort
The Walt Disney World Resort continues to monitor Hurricane Jeanne. As of 4:30 p.m. eastern time Friday, Sept. 24, the storm poses no immediate threat to the resort.
All Disney-owned and -operated hotels and theme parks are open and fully operational today, and are expected to operate with normal hours on Saturday, Sept. 25.
A temporary cancellation and "No Show" policy has been adopted for travel agents who have booked reservations through Walt Disney World or the Walt Disney Travel Company (agents that have booked through another tour operator should contact that company for its specific cancellation policy).
"No Show" penalties will be waived for any guest arrivals Sunday, Sept. 26, and Monday, Sept. 27, 2004.
Agents with clients arriving between Friday, Sept. 24 and Monday, Sept. 27 can call the Disney Reservations Center at to have an existing reservation rebooked for another time period and to apply the existing deposit/payment, or cancel and have the deposit/payment fully refunded.
The standard deposit and cancellation policy will apply to clients who cancel on or after Tuesday, Sept. 28, 2004.
Disney Cruise Line
Disney Magic Seven-Night Cruise, Sept. 18, 2004
Because the U.S. Coast Guard will be closing Port Canaveral, this seven-night cruise will return to Port Canaveral on Friday, Sept. 25, around 10:30 p.m. rather than Saturday morning, Sept. 26. Guests will be provided with accommodations at a Walt Disney World Resort.
Disney Wonder Three-Night Cruise, Sept. 23, 2004
This three-night cruise has been extended to a four-night voyage with a modified itinerary. The Disney Wonder will now visit Cozumel, Mexico on this voyage rather than the Bahamas. The ship will return to Fort Lauderdale's Port Everglades on Monday, Sept. 27.
Disney Magic Seven-Night Cruise, Sept. 25, 2004
Because Hurricane Jeanne is impacting Port Canaveral, the Disney Magic will now depart from Fort Lauderdale's Port Everglades on Monday, Sept. 27, on a five-night voyage. The itinerary will be:
Monday: Depart from Port Everglades
Tuesday: Day at Sea
Wednesday: Cozumel, Mexico
Thursday: Costa Maya, Mexico
Friday: Day at Sea
Saturday: Return to Port Canaveral
Ground transportation will be provided to Fort Lauderdale from Walt Disney World and the Orlando International Airport. In addition, transportation will be provided back to Fort Lauderdale from Port Canaveral at the end of the cruise for clients that drive to Fort Lauderdale. Special incentives will be offered to those who choose to sail on this cruise.
Disney Wonder Four-Night Cruise, Sept. 26, 2004
This cruise is being delayed by one day and will depart on Monday, Sept. 27 on a three-night voyage rather than a four-night cruise, departing from Fort Lauderdale's Port Everglades. The cruise is still anticipated to sail to the Bahamas. However, depending on the path and impact of Hurricane Jeanne, it may be necessary to eliminate calls to Castaway Cay and to Nassau. In this event, Disney Cruise Line will explore the potential to visit other ports or to have days at sea.
Disney Cruise Line is offering discount incentives to clients who still choose to sail on this cruise. Agents who booked air travel for their clients should change only the inbound flight to Florida. Complications related to the ship's return to Port Canaveral on Thursday, Sept. 30 are not expected, so agents should not reschedule return flights.
HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
WTNT31 KNHC 250837
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 47...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
...CORRECTED TO ADD HEADLINE AND STORM TIDES ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST...
...JEANNE MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE ABACO ISLANDS...EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY INTO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO ST. AUGUSTINE...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY
ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW
PROVIDENCE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY THROUGHOUT
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA COASTS FROM NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO ANCLOTE
KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM
CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO EAST CAPE
SABLE...AND NORTH OF ANCLOTE KEY ALONG THE WEST COAST TO THE
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.
WE ARE REMINDED THAT YOM KIPPUR...A SOLEMN JEWISH HOLIDAY...WILL
LAST UNTIL SUNDOWN TODAY. SOME OF YOUR JEWISH NEIGHBORS IN THE
WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OBSERVING YOM KIPPUR WILL NOT BE
LISTENING TO RADIOS OR WATCHING TV...AND MAY NOT BE AWARE OF THE
HURRICANE SITUATION.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES...90 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 240 MILES...385 KM...EAST OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF JEANNE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE ABACO
ISLANDS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...NEAR OR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY...AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND JEANNE WILL LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER
TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE
CENTER OF JEANNE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE ABACO ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF JEANNE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY LARGE SWELLS GENERATED
BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND THE BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...26.5 N... 76.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 958 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
5 AM Discussion
WTNT41 KNHC 250858
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT JEANNE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A 40 NM
WIDE EYE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 958 MB...AND THE
AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF ABOUT 100 KT. THIS
IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL 90 KT INTENSITY. JEANNE IS CURRENTLY
GENERATING VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS SOUTH OF THE EYE...BUT A DRY SLOT
IS APPARENT NORTH OF THE EYE. CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY FAIR TO
GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 110 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS AT 850 MB IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...APPARENTLY DUE TO AN
EYEWALL MESOVORTEX AND THE ASSOCIATED INTENSE CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL MOTION WOBBLES BETWEEN 270/12 AND 275/12. JEANNE
REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH
LARGE-SCALE MODELS NOW FORECAST TO PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE
JEANNE INTO SOUTHEASTERN OR EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA IN ABOUT 24 HR.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO
THE EAST TO ALLOW JEANNE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD...FOLLOWED BY
EVENTUAL RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON
THIS SCENARIO AND HAS SHOWN A WESTWARD SHIFT SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...BUT THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES ON WHEN AND WHERE JEANNE
WILL TURN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE CURRENT MOTION
UNTIL LANDFALL IN FLORIDA IN 24 HR...THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE
NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 24
HR...AND JUST EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS FROM 24-72 HR. IT HAS
BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...MOST NOTABLY OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR JEANNE TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL LANDFALL. THEREFORE...THE MAIN
RESTRAINING FACTORS FOR DEVELOPMENT ARE THE CURRENT LARGE EYE...AND
THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE HURRICANE. SHIPS AND THE GFDL
BOTH TAKE JEANNE TO 100 KT BY LANDFALL. GIVEN THE CURRENT
TRENDS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL GO A LITTLE HIGHER AND CALL
FOR 105 KT. IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE JEANNE GET STRONGER
THAN THAT...AND REACHING CATEGORY FOUR STATUS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. JEANNE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...BECOMING
A DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0900Z 26.5N 76.2W 90 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 26.7N 78.2W 100 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 27.3N 80.3W 105 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/1800Z 28.6N 81.9W 75 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 27/0600Z 30.4N 82.5W 45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 28/0600Z 34.0N 80.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 29/0600Z 38.5N 72.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 30/0600Z 43.0N 62.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
PROBABILITIES
WTNT71 KNHC 250831
SPFAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
27.3N 80.3W 45 X X X 45 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 7 7
28.6N 81.9W 16 14 X X 30 NORFOLK VA X X X 7 7
30.4N 82.5W 1 17 5 1 24 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 3 3
MYNN 251N 775W 18 X X X 18 KEY WEST FL 1 2 1 X 4
MYGF 266N 787W 62 X X X 62 MARCO ISLAND FL 13 5 1 X 19
MARATHON FL 4 3 X X 7 FT MYERS FL 16 7 X X 23
MIAMI FL 26 X 1 X 27 VENICE FL 9 13 X X 22
W PALM BEACH FL 43 X X X 43 TAMPA FL 9 16 1 X 26
FT PIERCE FL 45 X X X 45 CEDAR KEY FL 2 19 2 1 24
COCOA BEACH FL 40 X X X 40 ST MARKS FL X 7 10 2 19
DAYTONA BEACH FL 21 11 X X 32 APALACHICOLA FL X 4 9 2 15
JACKSONVILLE FL 2 19 3 1 25 PANAMA CITY FL X 1 9 3 13
SAVANNAH GA X 8 10 3 21 PENSACOLA FL X X 3 4 7
CHARLESTON SC X 3 9 6 18 MOBILE AL X X 1 3 4
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 6 9 15 GULFPORT MS X X X 2 2
WILMINGTON NC X X 2 11 13 GULF 29N 85W X 5 8 1 14
MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 1 9 10 GULF 29N 87W X X 3 3 6
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN
C FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON
D FROM 2AM MON TO 2AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 47...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
...CORRECTED TO ADD HEADLINE AND STORM TIDES ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST...
...JEANNE MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE ABACO ISLANDS...EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY INTO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO ST. AUGUSTINE...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY
ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW
PROVIDENCE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY THROUGHOUT
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA COASTS FROM NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG
THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO ANCLOTE
KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM
CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO EAST CAPE
SABLE...AND NORTH OF ANCLOTE KEY ALONG THE WEST COAST TO THE
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.
WE ARE REMINDED THAT YOM KIPPUR...A SOLEMN JEWISH HOLIDAY...WILL
LAST UNTIL SUNDOWN TODAY. SOME OF YOUR JEWISH NEIGHBORS IN THE
WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OBSERVING YOM KIPPUR WILL NOT BE
LISTENING TO RADIOS OR WATCHING TV...AND MAY NOT BE AWARE OF THE
HURRICANE SITUATION.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES...90 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 240 MILES...385 KM...EAST OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF JEANNE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE ABACO
ISLANDS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...NEAR OR OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY...AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND JEANNE WILL LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER
TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE
CENTER OF JEANNE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE ABACO ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF JEANNE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY LARGE SWELLS GENERATED
BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND THE BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...26.5 N... 76.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 958 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER BEVEN
5 AM Discussion
WTNT41 KNHC 250858
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT JEANNE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A 40 NM
WIDE EYE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 958 MB...AND THE
AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF ABOUT 100 KT. THIS
IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL 90 KT INTENSITY. JEANNE IS CURRENTLY
GENERATING VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS SOUTH OF THE EYE...BUT A DRY SLOT
IS APPARENT NORTH OF THE EYE. CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY FAIR TO
GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 110 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS AT 850 MB IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...APPARENTLY DUE TO AN
EYEWALL MESOVORTEX AND THE ASSOCIATED INTENSE CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL MOTION WOBBLES BETWEEN 270/12 AND 275/12. JEANNE
REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH
LARGE-SCALE MODELS NOW FORECAST TO PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE
JEANNE INTO SOUTHEASTERN OR EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA IN ABOUT 24 HR.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO
THE EAST TO ALLOW JEANNE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD...FOLLOWED BY
EVENTUAL RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON
THIS SCENARIO AND HAS SHOWN A WESTWARD SHIFT SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...BUT THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES ON WHEN AND WHERE JEANNE
WILL TURN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE CURRENT MOTION
UNTIL LANDFALL IN FLORIDA IN 24 HR...THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE
NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE FORECAST
TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 24
HR...AND JUST EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS FROM 24-72 HR. IT HAS
BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...MOST NOTABLY OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE
FOR JEANNE TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL LANDFALL. THEREFORE...THE MAIN
RESTRAINING FACTORS FOR DEVELOPMENT ARE THE CURRENT LARGE EYE...AND
THE ABUNDANT DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE HURRICANE. SHIPS AND THE GFDL
BOTH TAKE JEANNE TO 100 KT BY LANDFALL. GIVEN THE CURRENT
TRENDS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL GO A LITTLE HIGHER AND CALL
FOR 105 KT. IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE JEANNE GET STRONGER
THAN THAT...AND REACHING CATEGORY FOUR STATUS IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. JEANNE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...BECOMING
A DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND EVENTUALLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/0900Z 26.5N 76.2W 90 KT
12HR VT 25/1800Z 26.7N 78.2W 100 KT
24HR VT 26/0600Z 27.3N 80.3W 105 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/1800Z 28.6N 81.9W 75 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 27/0600Z 30.4N 82.5W 45 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 28/0600Z 34.0N 80.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 29/0600Z 38.5N 72.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 30/0600Z 43.0N 62.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
PROBABILITIES
WTNT71 KNHC 250831
SPFAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 47
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
27.3N 80.3W 45 X X X 45 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 7 7
28.6N 81.9W 16 14 X X 30 NORFOLK VA X X X 7 7
30.4N 82.5W 1 17 5 1 24 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 3 3
MYNN 251N 775W 18 X X X 18 KEY WEST FL 1 2 1 X 4
MYGF 266N 787W 62 X X X 62 MARCO ISLAND FL 13 5 1 X 19
MARATHON FL 4 3 X X 7 FT MYERS FL 16 7 X X 23
MIAMI FL 26 X 1 X 27 VENICE FL 9 13 X X 22
W PALM BEACH FL 43 X X X 43 TAMPA FL 9 16 1 X 26
FT PIERCE FL 45 X X X 45 CEDAR KEY FL 2 19 2 1 24
COCOA BEACH FL 40 X X X 40 ST MARKS FL X 7 10 2 19
DAYTONA BEACH FL 21 11 X X 32 APALACHICOLA FL X 4 9 2 15
JACKSONVILLE FL 2 19 3 1 25 PANAMA CITY FL X 1 9 3 13
SAVANNAH GA X 8 10 3 21 PENSACOLA FL X X 3 4 7
CHARLESTON SC X 3 9 6 18 MOBILE AL X X 1 3 4
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 6 9 15 GULFPORT MS X X X 2 2
WILMINGTON NC X X 2 11 13 GULF 29N 85W X 5 8 1 14
MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 1 9 10 GULF 29N 87W X X 3 3 6
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN
C FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON
D FROM 2AM MON TO 2AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
WTNT31 KNHC 251139
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 47A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
...EYE OF JEANNE VERY NEAR MARSH HARBOR ON ABACO ISLAND...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO ST. AUGUSTINE...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY
ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW
PROVIDENCE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY THROUGHOUT
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA COASTS FROM NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING
CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO EAST CAPE
SABLE...AND NORTH OF ANCLOTE KEY ALONG THE WEST COAST TO THE
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.
WE ARE REMINDED THAT YOM KIPPUR...A SOLEMN JEWISH HOLIDAY...WILL
LAST UNTIL SUNDOWN TODAY. SOME OF YOUR JEWISH NEIGHBORS IN THE
WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OBSERVING YOM KIPPUR WILL NOT BE
LISTENING TO RADIOS OR WATCHING TV...AND MAY NOT BE AWARE OF THE
HURRICANE SITUATION.
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.0
WEST JUST OVER MARSH HARBOUR...ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 190 MILES...310 KM...EAST OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF JEANNE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY...AND APPROACH
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND JEANNE WILL LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER
TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM. MARSH HARBOR JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF NEAR 46 MPH...74 KM/HR AND A PRESSURE OF NEAR 963 MB...28.44
INCHES.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE
CENTER OF JEANNE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE ABACO ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF JEANNE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY LARGE SWELLS GENERATED
BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND THE BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...26.5 N... 77.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 957 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 47A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
...EYE OF JEANNE VERY NEAR MARSH HARBOR ON ABACO ISLAND...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO ST. AUGUSTINE...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY
ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW
PROVIDENCE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY THROUGHOUT
THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND
GEORGIA COASTS FROM NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING
CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY
AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO EAST CAPE
SABLE...AND NORTH OF ANCLOTE KEY ALONG THE WEST COAST TO THE
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.
WE ARE REMINDED THAT YOM KIPPUR...A SOLEMN JEWISH HOLIDAY...WILL
LAST UNTIL SUNDOWN TODAY. SOME OF YOUR JEWISH NEIGHBORS IN THE
WATCH AND WARNING AREAS OBSERVING YOM KIPPUR WILL NOT BE
LISTENING TO RADIOS OR WATCHING TV...AND MAY NOT BE AWARE OF THE
HURRICANE SITUATION.
AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.0
WEST JUST OVER MARSH HARBOUR...ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 190 MILES...310 KM...EAST OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF JEANNE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TODAY...AND APPROACH
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND JEANNE WILL LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER
TODAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM. MARSH HARBOR JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS
OF NEAR 46 MPH...74 KM/HR AND A PRESSURE OF NEAR 963 MB...28.44
INCHES.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE
CENTER OF JEANNE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE ABACO ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
TIDES OF 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF JEANNE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY LARGE SWELLS GENERATED
BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND THE BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...26.5 N... 77.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 957 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
WTNT31 KNHC 251457
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
...JEANNE BECOMES A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...BATTERING THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO ST. AUGUSTINE...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY
ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW
PROVIDENCE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 11 AM EDT....1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS FROM NORTH OF ST.
AUGUSTINE NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ST.
AUGUSTINE NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA ARE REVISED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE
SUWANEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
THE SUWANEE RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM
CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SUWANNE RIVER
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
AND FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO JUST SOUTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST JUST TO THE WEST OF
MARSH HARBOR ON THE ABACO ISLAND OR ABOUT 75 MILES... 120 KM...
EAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT
155 MILES...250 KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF JEANNE WILL CONTINUE NEAR OR OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY...AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
JEANNE HAS BECOME A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115
MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IS THE SIXTH MAJOR
HURRICANE OF THE 2004 HURRICANE SEASON. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. STRONGER
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON HIGH RISE
BUILDINGS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM....MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE
CENTER OF JEANNE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE ABACO ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST....POSSIBLE REACHING 3 TO 6 FEET IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NORTH OF TAMPA BAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF JEANNE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...26.6 N... 77.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM EDT AND 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
11 AM Discussion
WTNT41 KNHC 251508
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
EYE IS OVER MARSH HARBOR ON THE ABACO ISLAND. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS
MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE
AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. IN FACT...T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
ARE 6.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUGGESTING WINDS OF 127 KNOTS.
AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN FLYING ACROSS THE HURRICANE AND
REPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 113 KNOT AT FLIGHT LEVEL. INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS. THIS MAKES JEANNE A
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
BEFORE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
JEANNE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF
THE HURRICANE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO STEER JEANNE TOWARD
THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE HIGH
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CORE OF
JEANNE TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. THEREAFTER THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK
MODELS WHICH CONSISTENTLY TURN THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
THE HIGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/1500Z 26.6N 77.6W 100 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 27.0N 79.5W 110 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 28.0N 81.5W 75 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 27/0000Z 29.5N 82.5W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 27/1200Z 31.0N 83.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 28/1200Z 35.0N 78.5W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 29/1200Z 40.0N 67.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 30/1200Z 46.0N 54.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER
11 AM Probabilities
WTNT71 KNHC 251458
SPFAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
28.0N 81.5W 49 X X X 49 NORFOLK VA X X X 12 12
29.5N 82.5W 22 10 X X 32 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 6 6
31.0N 83.0W 1 20 3 X 24 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 3 3
MYGF 266N 787W 99 X X X 99 MARCO ISLAND FL 20 X X X 20
MARATHON FL 2 X X X 2 FT MYERS FL 28 1 X X 29
MIAMI FL 30 X X X 30 VENICE FL 27 X X 1 28
W PALM BEACH FL 58 X X X 58 TAMPA FL 33 1 X X 34
FT PIERCE FL 66 X X X 66 CEDAR KEY FL 18 11 1 X 30
COCOA BEACH FL 57 X X X 57 ST MARKS FL 1 15 4 1 21
DAYTONA BEACH FL 42 X X X 42 APALACHICOLA FL X 11 4 1 16
JACKSONVILLE FL 15 13 1 X 29 PANAMA CITY FL X 5 8 1 14
SAVANNAH GA 1 14 5 2 22 PENSACOLA FL X X 5 3 8
CHARLESTON SC X 6 7 6 19 MOBILE AL X X 2 2 4
MYRTLE BEACH SC X 1 6 11 18 GULFPORT MS X X 1 1 2
WILMINGTON NC X X 3 14 17 GULF 29N 85W X 11 3 1 15
MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 1 14 15 GULF 29N 87W X 1 4 1 6
CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 12 12
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN
C FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON
D FROM 8AM MON TO 8AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
...JEANNE BECOMES A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...BATTERING THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO ST. AUGUSTINE...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY
ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW
PROVIDENCE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
AT 11 AM EDT....1500Z...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
FOR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS FROM NORTH OF ST.
AUGUSTINE NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ST.
AUGUSTINE NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA ARE REVISED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE
SUWANEE RIVER. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
THE SUWANEE RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM
CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SUWANNE RIVER
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
AND FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO JUST SOUTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST JUST TO THE WEST OF
MARSH HARBOR ON THE ABACO ISLAND OR ABOUT 75 MILES... 120 KM...
EAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT
155 MILES...250 KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.
JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF JEANNE WILL CONTINUE NEAR OR OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY...AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEASTERN
COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
JEANNE HAS BECOME A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115
MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IS THE SIXTH MAJOR
HURRICANE OF THE 2004 HURRICANE SEASON. SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. STRONGER
WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON HIGH RISE
BUILDINGS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM....MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE
CENTER OF JEANNE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE ABACO ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4
FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST....POSSIBLE REACHING 3 TO 6 FEET IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NORTH OF TAMPA BAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF JEANNE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...26.6 N... 77.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM EDT AND 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE
ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
11 AM Discussion
WTNT41 KNHC 251508
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
EYE IS OVER MARSH HARBOR ON THE ABACO ISLAND. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS
MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE
AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. IN FACT...T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
ARE 6.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUGGESTING WINDS OF 127 KNOTS.
AN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN FLYING ACROSS THE HURRICANE AND
REPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 113 KNOT AT FLIGHT LEVEL. INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS. THIS MAKES JEANNE A
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
BEFORE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.
JEANNE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS.
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF
THE HURRICANE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO STEER JEANNE TOWARD
THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE HIGH
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CORE OF
JEANNE TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATE
TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. THEREAFTER THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK
MODELS WHICH CONSISTENTLY TURN THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
THE HIGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 25/1500Z 26.6N 77.6W 100 KT
12HR VT 26/0000Z 27.0N 79.5W 110 KT
24HR VT 26/1200Z 28.0N 81.5W 75 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 27/0000Z 29.5N 82.5W 45 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 27/1200Z 31.0N 83.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 28/1200Z 35.0N 78.5W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 29/1200Z 40.0N 67.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER
120HR VT 30/1200Z 46.0N 54.0W 30 KT...OVER WATER
11 AM Probabilities
WTNT71 KNHC 251458
SPFAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF JEANNE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
28.0N 81.5W 49 X X X 49 NORFOLK VA X X X 12 12
29.5N 82.5W 22 10 X X 32 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 6 6
31.0N 83.0W 1 20 3 X 24 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 3 3
MYGF 266N 787W 99 X X X 99 MARCO ISLAND FL 20 X X X 20
MARATHON FL 2 X X X 2 FT MYERS FL 28 1 X X 29
MIAMI FL 30 X X X 30 VENICE FL 27 X X 1 28
W PALM BEACH FL 58 X X X 58 TAMPA FL 33 1 X X 34
FT PIERCE FL 66 X X X 66 CEDAR KEY FL 18 11 1 X 30
COCOA BEACH FL 57 X X X 57 ST MARKS FL 1 15 4 1 21
DAYTONA BEACH FL 42 X X X 42 APALACHICOLA FL X 11 4 1 16
JACKSONVILLE FL 15 13 1 X 29 PANAMA CITY FL X 5 8 1 14
SAVANNAH GA 1 14 5 2 22 PENSACOLA FL X X 5 3 8
CHARLESTON SC X 6 7 6 19 MOBILE AL X X 2 2 4
MYRTLE BEACH SC X 1 6 11 18 GULFPORT MS X X 1 1 2
WILMINGTON NC X X 3 14 17 GULF 29N 85W X 11 3 1 15
MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 1 14 15 GULF 29N 87W X 1 4 1 6
CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 12 12
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8AM SUN TO 8PM SUN
C FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON
D FROM 8AM MON TO 8AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA
HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
WTNT61 KNHC 251520
TCUAT
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1125 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
THE PUBLIC ADVISORY SHOULD REFLECT THAT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A
STORM SURGE OF UP TO 7 FEET ABOVE THE PRESENT WATER LEVEL IS LIKELY
TO OCCUR MAINLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF LAKE.
FORECASTER AVILA
TCUAT
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1125 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
THE PUBLIC ADVISORY SHOULD REFLECT THAT FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A
STORM SURGE OF UP TO 7 FEET ABOVE THE PRESENT WATER LEVEL IS LIKELY
TO OCCUR MAINLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF LAKE.
FORECASTER AVILA
HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
WTNT51 KNHC 251556
TCEAT
HURRICANE JEANNE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
12 NOON EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
AT 12 NOON...1600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 60 MILES...95
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS AND 135 MILES...220
KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.
FORECASTER AVILA
TCEAT
HURRICANE JEANNE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
12 NOON EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
AT 12 NOON...1600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 60 MILES...95
KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS AND 135 MILES...220
KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.
FORECASTER AVILA
MarkRG
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Mar 19, 2002
- Messages
- 6,166
I have possible news. The High that's been holding Jeanne on a straight west track HAS moved off the coast! Have a look: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/satsfcnps.gif
This changes the pattern, the force that was holding Jeanne on the straight west track has diminished.
Jeanne should start turning because of it. We can only hope the turning happens and quick. There are some radar indications it is beginning to do so, but I don't want to get hopes up. Need to see more track of the hurricane first.
This changes the pattern, the force that was holding Jeanne on the straight west track has diminished.
Jeanne should start turning because of it. We can only hope the turning happens and quick. There are some radar indications it is beginning to do so, but I don't want to get hopes up. Need to see more track of the hurricane first.
JimmyMartin
GM Share a Dream 4/28/02
- Joined
- Oct 23, 2000
- Messages
- 162
Well. We were scheduled to go out today. Drove down from NC yesterday. DCL called our home after we left to postpone cruise. We own condo on 192 west and called when we arrived. The main phone number siad to call Monday. We called different number and were told the cruise would leave Monday from Port Everglades. The customer service rep. was very helpful. disney will provide free transportation from WDW to the Port. The current path predicted takes the storm eye just south and west of WDW. I doubt the cruise will leave on Monday. We have a daughter in Bradenton and will wait it out here. We have been lucky so far. Don't know about this time.
HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
WTNT31 KNHC 251700
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 48A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JEANNE BATTERING THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WITH
FURY...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO ST. AUGUSTINE...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY
ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW
PROVIDENCE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE SUWANEE RIVER. A HURRICANE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM ENGLEWOOD TO THE SUWANEE RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM
CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SUWANNE RIVER
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
AND FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO JUST SOUTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.
AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST ABOUT 35 MILES...50
KM...NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. THIS POSITION IS
ALSO ABOUT 135 MILES...215 KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
FLORIDA.
JEANNE IS NOW MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF JEANNE WILL CONTINUE NEAR OR
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY...AND APPROACH
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
JEANNE IS DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM....MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL OCCURING NEAR
THE CENTER OF JEANNE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE ABACO ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. A STORM SURGE OF UP TO 7 FEET ABOVE
THE PRESENT WATER LEVEL IS LIKELY TO OCCUR MAINLY ON THE EAST SIDE
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST....POSSIBLE REACHING 3 TO 6 FEET IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NORTH OF TAMPA BAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF JEANNE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...26.8 N... 77.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 48A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE JEANNE BATTERING THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WITH
FURY...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO ST. AUGUSTINE...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY
ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW
PROVIDENCE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE SUWANEE RIVER. A HURRICANE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM ENGLEWOOD TO THE SUWANEE RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM
CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SUWANNE RIVER
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
AND FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO JUST SOUTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.
AT 1 PM EDT...1700Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST ABOUT 35 MILES...50
KM...NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. THIS POSITION IS
ALSO ABOUT 135 MILES...215 KM...EAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF
FLORIDA.
JEANNE IS NOW MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF JEANNE WILL CONTINUE NEAR OR
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TODAY...AND APPROACH
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
JEANNE IS DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM....MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
955 MB...28.20 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL OCCURING NEAR
THE CENTER OF JEANNE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE ABACO ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. A STORM SURGE OF UP TO 7 FEET ABOVE
THE PRESENT WATER LEVEL IS LIKELY TO OCCUR MAINLY ON THE EAST SIDE
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST....POSSIBLE REACHING 3 TO 6 FEET IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NORTH OF TAMPA BAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF JEANNE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 1 PM EDT POSITION...26.8 N... 77.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
Timster
One out of four people are Mentally Unbalanced. Th
- Joined
- Apr 30, 2004
- Messages
- 451
I have not got through all the pages of this thread, so sorry if this is redundant information.
Disney Cruise Ships Departing From Port Everglades Because Of Storm
POSTED: 3:40 pm EDT September 24, 2004
Disney Cruise Line announced Friday that its two ships, the Disney Wonder and the Disney Magic, will both depart from Fort Lauderdales Port Everglades on Monday, Sept. 27 due to complications created by Hurricane Jeanne.
Disney Cruise Line reservations agents are in the process of contacting guests scheduled to sail on these two cruises to make arrangements for them to arrive in Ft. Lauderdale.
Disney Cruise Line will provide ground transportation for guests between Ft. Lauderdale and Orlando as needed.
Disney Wonder
The Disney Wonder three-night cruise that set sail on Thursday, Sept. 23, has been extended to a four-night cruise that will now set sail to Cozumel, Mexico, rather than the Bahamas. The ship will return on Monday, Sept. 27, to Port Everglades in Fort Lauderdale rather than Port Canaveral.
The Disney Wonder four-night cruise originally scheduled to sail on Sunday, Sept. 26, has been changed to a three-night cruise to the Bahamas and will depart on Monday, Sept. 27, and will return to Port Canaveral on Thursday, Sept. 30, as scheduled.
Disney Magic
The seven-night sailing originally scheduled to leave on Saturday, Sept. 25, will now become a five-night voyage departing on Monday, Sept. 27, from Fort Lauderdale and returning on Saturday, Oct. 2, to Port Canaveral. The ship will visit Cozumel, Mexico and Costa Maya, Mexico during this sailing.
Guests who have questions can call (800) WDW-CRUISE for more information.
Disney Cruise Ships Departing From Port Everglades Because Of Storm
POSTED: 3:40 pm EDT September 24, 2004
Disney Cruise Line announced Friday that its two ships, the Disney Wonder and the Disney Magic, will both depart from Fort Lauderdales Port Everglades on Monday, Sept. 27 due to complications created by Hurricane Jeanne.
Disney Cruise Line reservations agents are in the process of contacting guests scheduled to sail on these two cruises to make arrangements for them to arrive in Ft. Lauderdale.
Disney Cruise Line will provide ground transportation for guests between Ft. Lauderdale and Orlando as needed.
Disney Wonder
The Disney Wonder three-night cruise that set sail on Thursday, Sept. 23, has been extended to a four-night cruise that will now set sail to Cozumel, Mexico, rather than the Bahamas. The ship will return on Monday, Sept. 27, to Port Everglades in Fort Lauderdale rather than Port Canaveral.
The Disney Wonder four-night cruise originally scheduled to sail on Sunday, Sept. 26, has been changed to a three-night cruise to the Bahamas and will depart on Monday, Sept. 27, and will return to Port Canaveral on Thursday, Sept. 30, as scheduled.
Disney Magic
The seven-night sailing originally scheduled to leave on Saturday, Sept. 25, will now become a five-night voyage departing on Monday, Sept. 27, from Fort Lauderdale and returning on Saturday, Oct. 2, to Port Canaveral. The ship will visit Cozumel, Mexico and Costa Maya, Mexico during this sailing.
Guests who have questions can call (800) WDW-CRUISE for more information.
HumanCookie
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Jan 12, 2004
- Messages
- 329
WTNT31 KNHC 251854
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 48B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
3 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
... EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE JEANNE RELENTLESSLY BATTERING THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS..
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO ST. AUGUSTINE...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY
ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW
PROVIDENCE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A HURRICANE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM ENGLEWOOD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM
CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
AND FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO JUST SOUTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.
AT 3 PM EDT...1900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST ABOUT 40 MILES...65
KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. THIS POSITION
IS ALSO ABOUT 125 MILES...205 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VERO BEACH
FLORIDA.
JEANNE IS NOW MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF JEANNE WILL CONTINUE NEAR OR
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
JEANNE IS DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM....MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
953 MB...28.14 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL OCCURRING NEAR
THE CENTER OF JEANNE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE ABACO ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. A STORM SURGE OF UP TO 7 FEET ABOVE
THE PRESENT WATER LEVEL IS LIKELY TO OCCUR MAINLY ON THE EAST SIDE
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST....POSSIBLE REACHING 3 TO 6 FEET IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NORTH OF TAMPA BAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF JEANNE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 3 PM EDT POSITION...27.0 N... 78.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 48B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
3 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004
... EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE JEANNE RELENTLESSLY BATTERING THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS..
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM
FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO ST. AUGUSTINE...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...BERRY
ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW
PROVIDENCE. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER. A HURRICANE
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM ENGLEWOOD TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM
CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
AND FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO JUST SOUTH OF EAST CAPE SABLE INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS NORTH OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE.
AT 3 PM EDT...1900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.4 WEST ABOUT 40 MILES...65
KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. THIS POSITION
IS ALSO ABOUT 125 MILES...205 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF VERO BEACH
FLORIDA.
JEANNE IS NOW MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22
KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF JEANNE WILL CONTINUE NEAR OR
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND APPROACH THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
JEANNE IS DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115 MPH...185
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN
GUSTS...ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES...335 KM....MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
953 MB...28.14 INCHES.
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE STILL OCCURRING NEAR
THE CENTER OF JEANNE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE ABACO ISLANDS. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO
4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. A STORM SURGE OF UP TO 7 FEET ABOVE
THE PRESENT WATER LEVEL IS LIKELY TO OCCUR MAINLY ON THE EAST SIDE
OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
TIDES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST....POSSIBLE REACHING 3 TO 6 FEET IN
AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW NORTH OF TAMPA BAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF JEANNE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST FLORIDA
PENINSULA TODAY.
REPEATING THE 3 PM EDT POSITION...27.0 N... 78.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...115 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
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