Official Hurricane JEANNE Part Deaux

[HumanCookie]

WTNT61 KNHC 231731
TCUAT
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
130 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

AT 130 PM EDT...1730Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

THIS INFORMATION WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 2 PM EDT INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY AND UPDATED ON THE NOAA TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER GRAPHICS PRODUCTS AT THAT TIME.

FORECASTER STEWART

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT31 KNHC 231747
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

...JEANNE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HR.

INTERESTS ON THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JEANNE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.0 WEST OR ABOUT 440
MILES... 705 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR... AND
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. A SLOW INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.

DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY LARGE SWELLS GENERATED
BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...25.8 N... 70.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 966 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

 

[snelsonbrown]

I woke up this morn at 5AM, turned on the news and the first thing to hit me was that Jeanne had her sights on Cape Canaveral -- -----after fixing my coffee and getting my thoughts together, I decided OK remember Floyd --- 3 hurricanes in less than 6 weeks is a hard pill to swallow especially for so many that still have repairs from the first one, finished by the second one as with my sister, but she has such a great faith, we are now both convinced we will be fine --regardless. Anyhow we are suppose to have Jeanne for either breakfast and lunch so it is a possibility my post will be cut short since we have to board up and get the shop ready - Norm and I are staying behind (I think) and if not will head over to Ocala.
Anyhow to those here in Florida, thoughts and prayers go out to each of you.
Always
Shirley

 

[HumanCookie]

She' coming.

 

[Kalypso]

God bless you, Shirley - hope all is okay

 

[mamalle]

looking like a direct hit for the treasure coast of fla. come sunday am.

 

[wdwgirls2]

Well at least I'm still packed from the last hurricane. We are on the Treasure Coast so I think we will be heading to Orlando this weekend. Here we go again...

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT31 KNHC 232028
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

...JEANNE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
...EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD BY FRIDAY...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR.

INTERESTS ON THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JEANNE.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.3 WEST OR ABOUT 425
MILES... 680 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND.

JEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND JEANNE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.

DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY LARGE SWELLS GENERATED
BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...25.9 N... 70.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 966 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

5 PM Discussion

WTNT41 KNHC 232054
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

WHILE THE EYE OF JEANNE HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE DISTINCT...
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE INTENSITY IS
BEING MAINTAINED AT 90 KT. THE NEXT RECON FLIGHT INTO JEANNE WILL
BE AROUND 24/06Z

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/06. JEANNE HAS BEEN WOBBLING IN A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THE PAST 9 HOURS...BUT A TURN TOWARD TO
THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THIS
HAS BEEN THE YEAR FOR WRAPAROUND RIDGES...AND 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA
INDICATE THAT JEANNE IS CAUGHT IN SUCH A PATTERN. HOWEVER...ALL OF
THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW JEANNE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT A FASTER
FORWARD SPEED. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A STRONG RIDGE/HIGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN
ABOUT 48-60 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE ENOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
THAT COULD DETERMINE IF...WHEN...AND WHERE JEANNE COULD MAKE
LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE ETA...NOGAPS...AND GFDN
MODELS ARE THE FARTHEST SOUTH AND BRING JEANNE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AND TO NEAR THE TAMPA BAY AREA. THE OTHER MODELS REMAIN JUST INLAND
FROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITH LANDFALL BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH
AND CAPE CANAVERAL. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY SOUTH
AND WEST BASED ON THE GFDL...GFS...AND UKMET MODELS HAVING
INITIALIZED THE RIDGE TOO WEAK...BY ABOUT 20 METERS AT 500 MB.
USERS ARE CAUTIONED TO NOT FOCUS ON THE SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS
DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...THE LARGE SIZE OF THE HURRICANE...AND
BECAUSE JEANNE COULD TAKE A MORE ROUNDED PATH NEAR LANDFALL THAN
IMPLIED BY SIMPLY CONNECTING THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST POINTS. A
60-HR POINT WOULD BE CLOSE TO 26.7N 79.8W WITH A 100-KT INTENSITY.

THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL JEANNE
GETS NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IN ABOUT 60 HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW
JEANNE TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
OVER INCREASINGLY WARMER WATER...83-84F...LOCATED FROM THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.

FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/2100Z 25.9N 70.3W 90 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 25.9N 71.5W 95 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 25.8N 73.4W 100 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 25.8N 75.5W 105 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 26.1N 77.8W 105 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 27.9N 81.3W 75 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/1800Z 31.5N 81.5W 55 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 28/1800Z 36.0N 77.0W 35 KT...INLAND

 

[Miss Jasmine]

Anyone having Frances flashbacks???? I know I am. I have ressies for two rooms in WDW, which now is in the path. UGH. However, I think I may feel better there than in my own home. WHO KNOWS though. I still think we may see it shift southwesterly come tomorrow. Just an instinct based on the ridge building. I am also basing this on no evacuations have taken place in Brevard County yet, either (though they could come tomorrow, but that is cutting it close). But, as always, stick with the NHC cone of doom (as I have now nicknamed it).

 

[MarkRG]

As I said, I know that I couldn't explain those maps to where just anyone could understand them.

I STILL don't see where they are making the prediction of a straight west track from.

At this point, I am not going to predict if it'll hit the coast or not. I havn't taken a fresh look at the maps myself since this morning. The only one I will show is this one, which I just looked at myself.

This is an actualr RIGHT NOW track, not a prediction, but its actual path to the last reading which is (when I looked at it- it will update) from 0000 UTC or 6pm Eastern time. Follow the black/green line. It is going in circles right now, not very westerly at all at the moment.

I'll go study all the maps I've been looking at and post something in a few hours.

 

[allears]

MarkRG, keep the posts coming, I'm liking your view of things much better than the news!

 

[HumanCookie]

WTNT31 KNHC 232339
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE JEANNE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 41A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

...JEANNE MOVING LITTLE...SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE WESTWARD TONIGHT OR
FRIDAY...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND
SAN SALVADOR.

INTERESTS ON THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JEANNE.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z..THE EYE OF HURRICANE JEANNE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.4 WEST OR ABOUT 420
MILES... 675 KM...EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND.

JEANNE HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AT A
SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND JEANNE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.

DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS...CAUSED BY LARGE SWELLS GENERATED
BY HURRICANE JEANNE...ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST AND THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...26.0 N... 70.4 W. MOVEMENT NEARLY
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 966 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA

 

[MarkRG]

I am certainly not trying to give any false hope here, BUT, remember that the according to the NHC (which is what all the news services are parroting) from its inital reports on Jeanne, it should have made landfall a long time back already. I'm the only one who said earlier in the week it'd be going round in circles away from the islands.

Too much trusting the computer models.

I'll have something more concrete in a few hours.

 

[MarkRG]

I would say there is a very small cause to worry. The patterns are changing somewhat as Ivan moves onland. Be prepared, but there is no cause to panic at this point.

The next few hours as Ivan finally moves onland(hopefully for the final time) will determine what Jeanne really does. No prediction can truly be made until this event happens. These two being so close together they are definitely having a large effect on each other. I wonder how the computer models can take that into account.

I still do not believe in a straight west course. There is nothing on any map I have available that would motivate Jeanne to move straight west.

The only thing that could affect what I'm stating is data I do not have at hand. I will continue to study the maps and will make another report in the very early am, possibly sooner if I observe something.

It is moving slightly Northwest at this time. (This takes a few minutes to load, but is the easiest for everyone to understand)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

The one thing I can be very sure of is that the entire southeast will experience some kind of storm activity in the next 24 hours, for sure. There are winds are coming north off the gulf behind Ivan and colliding with a high sliding down from the plains and there will be rain of some kind in that collision and as it is pushed east.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Very interesting information, though I don't really understand it.

I don't have a good feeling as from Frances--my home is now boarded up and the cars are loaded with gas.

Now I feel the vacationers agony--I have a flight for 6:45am on Saturday to head out west and onto Hawaii for sister's wedding.

I left for WDW this morning for a day at the parks--and came home to chaos.

Personally, I don't like the laid back behavior of our county at the moment.

I could swear I saw gas for 10 cents a gallon cheaper within the last couple of days and it seems to have spiked to $1.96 at a local gas station. I think a situation is being taken advantage of. All I gots to say, if high school football goes on tomorrow night, my flight better not be cancelled.

Miss Jasmine--I tried the bury my head in the sand approach and have been ignoring the hurricanes. It didn't work.

 

[MarkRG]

Feel free to ask questions, I'll try to answer them as best I can. Be as detailed as possible in the asking, but I exempt one question right now.

What track will it take, I'm waiting on Ivan to move to make a decision on that, the pattern for the whole area is shifting right now.

 

[dinnysuw]

bump

 

[dinnysuw]

markrg
ok-i have a question-or more of your opinion needed-we are a 9/25 cruiser what are our chances of gettign off ok? any input?
darcy

 

[mamalle]

WTNT41 KNHC 240251
TCDAT1
HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 42
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004

ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS QUITE DISTINCT AND THERE IS GOOD ORGANIZATION...
THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED. THIS WAS PROBABLY CAUSED BY THE FACT
THAT JEANNE HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR A DAY OR SO...RESULTING IN
UPWELLING AND COOLER WATERS. THE WINDS COULD BE LOWERED AT THIS
TIME BUT I RATHER WAIT FOR THE RECON WHICH WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY
EARLY FRIDAY. SO FOR NOW THE WINDS REMAIN AT 90 KNOTS. THE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE BETWEEN THE
BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...AND AS SOON AS JEANNE MOVES WESTWARD OVER
THIS AREA...IT WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER WATERS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
THEN ANTICIPATED.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN AND IT APPEARS THAT
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE HURRICANE HAS
BEGUN TO FORCE JEANNE WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS. AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD...THE HURRICANE SHOULD INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED AND SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 48
HOURS. BY THEN...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND THE
HURRICANE WILL TURN GRADUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE HIGH.
THIS TURN COULD EITHER OCCUR OVER THE PENINSULA OR ALONG THE EAST
COAST. NEVERTHERLESS...JEANNE IS A THREAT TO FLORIDA. THIS IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODELS AND THE CONSENSUS...WHICH CONSISTENTLY
HAVE BEEN BRINGING THE HURRICANE OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA FOR THE PAST
FEW RUNS.

 

[CM_Mom]

dinnysuw, I don't have the training to really understand all the stuff that's going on, but it's interesting and I read what everyone else says. The best concensus I can find from MarkRG and all the weather sites I've visited is that Saturday should be OK - although the seas might be a little rough.

DCL has already postponed the port day for the Wonder from Sunday to Monday and everything I can read says that Sunday is when Port Canaveral will have a rough time.

My totally unprofessional opinion is that the Magic will be fine and you will get on the ship on Saturday.

My PRAYER is that Jeanne will decide to continue to confound the forecasters and move north sooner rather than later and GET OUT OF THE WAY.

Mark, I like your thinking and hope you're right.

Edited to add: Oops, guess I was wrong. Check out Port Canaveral Evacuation Order

I DON'T like this.