Some other ways to look at it...
One way to decide whether to use points is to compare what it costs you to use points vs. what it costs you to use cash. If in a given year you figure your points have cost you $6 per point, and you're considering using 100 points to stay somewhere, it would cost you $600 if you used points. The question then is whether staying at that location using cash will cost you more or less than $600. If you can't find a cash deal for $600 or less, then using points would be cheaper. For me, that's a good deal.
Another way to decide is based on what your points are worth. It sounds like the current going rate to rent out points is $10 per point. So using the same 100 point location, you could rent out your points and get $1000 in cash to use for the stay. The question then is whether the $1000 covers the cost of the best cash deal you can find. If the best cash deal costs more than $1000, then you'd be better off using points directly, rather than trying to rent them out. Of course, renting out points is a bit of a hassle. So if, like me, you dislike hassles, it might even be worth paying a little more with points.
I don't think it's accurate to say that using points at a given location at a given time of year is a waste just because you could use fewer points at a different location and/or different time of year. If I pay cash to go to Hawaii at peak season, am I wasting money because I could have instead paid less to go to Nebraska in January? I don't think so. If you want to go to a particular place in a given year that's not Disney, you have to evaulate costs and values based on that other location.
I also don't think it's valid to say it's better to use cash for a year when you're staying "off property" and bank the points for the following year. For many people who only take one big vacation each year, you'll have to use these points pretty quickly to keep them from expiring. This will likely require taking an extra vacation when you wouldn't otherwise have done so. This would mean spending more than you would otherwise, even though you're spending points and not cash. But the points do have a value, so you are using money you otherwise would not have used. Now, if Disney would let you save points indefinitely, this argument would go away.
Of course, this is all just my personal opinion, and it's hard to say how many points that's worth ;-)
- Randy