You say to look at all sides, but encourage people to view a video that looks at only one and reaches a faulty conclusion as a result. It isn't common sense to ignore the parts of the picture that don't fit your pre-concieved biases and that's exactly what DR did in that clip. Now, I'm not a fan... He may or may not have covered the law in more depth at another time and I'd never know it. But the linked video certainly wasn't an example of looking at all sides and drawing your own conclusions. "
Most of what DR said is spot on, at least in the short term, and taken 1 step further why the administration is not going to move on the individual mandate. Looking small scale, let's say 10 friends decided to for a health care COOP. They figure each person has $500 worth of medical bills a year and 1 random person has $5,000 worth of bills. So, that's $10,000 worth of expenses split across 10 people or $1,000 a year. Let's suppose an 11 person wants to join the group. They have medical bills of $20,000 every year. It's now $30,000 in expenses split across 11 people or $2,700 per year. Costs for everyone went up. This is where "Adverse Selection" and the need for "Individual Mandate" comes in. If 3 of the 10 people decided, "why am I paying so much?" and drop out, you now have on average $27,000 (the 500 less per person + some years of no $5,000) of expenses split across 8 people. So the premium climes to $3,375. That may cause more "healthy people" to look elsewhere raising the premium again.
When DR talks about simple math that's basically what he's talking about. In the long term, yes there is a possibility if everyone has health insurance and takes advantage of preventive care, there will be fewer people with the big medical bills every year. But that's the long term and premium are set in the short term. Once costs come down, then premium will come down.
I've heard so far are from people far more anxious over their health insurance status than I (a healthy 34yo) am about mine.
I priced out a couple of options from insurance companies we've used in the past and it looks like pre-subsidy the plans will be roughly the same as we've always paid but with $5000 lower deductible and of course the new rules about preventative care. I'm pleased with that. And assuming the preliminary subsidy info from the .pdf the application generates is accurate, we'll save an additional $3000/year on that side of it. Our premiums will be a single-digit percentage of our income for the first time since 2004. We're a one-income family making just a bit less than 200% FPL with no employer-sponsored coverage, so we're pretty much the "ideal" set up for a success story with the ACA/exchanges.
You're experience is for the most part the exact opposite from mine looking from just the other side of 200% FPL. Just yesterday, I got my early renewal notice for my policy. If I renew early, my premium will increase from $179 - $182 a month for a mostly health 44 going to 45 year old $2,500 deductible 0% copay after that HSA plan, I mentioned previously I pay a slight more because of my weight. The same companies 2014 plan for a 45 year old with a $2,000 deductible and 0% after that is $486 before subsidy ($260-$300 after subsidy depending on what estimator I use). Yes if I keep my old plan for one more year I don't get maternity, but I'm a male so I don't think that will be a problem. Since mine's not a grandfathered plan, I still get all of the preventative care from the ACA. So from as close to an apples to apples comparison, I personally would be much worse off.
As far as "why the rush" I have until the end of the month to accept my current plans offer. Because, Apples to apples I'm clearly worse off but I'll admit apples to pears is not so clear cut. I do qualify for cost sharing reductions in silver plan where I may be able to get a different sort of plan for comperable money. I can get a plan with a lower deductible, office visit, and prescription copays for similar money but the out of pocket maximum is higher. And like I've mentioned before, and you see, if I want to force my income to be under 200% FPL, I can probabaly get a great health insurance plan for a smaller premium.
My advice to you is since you're "just under" 200% FPL look at how the plan changes if you make 200%-250% of FPL and see what happens if your family income increses. Legally, it looks like you're supposed to inform them midyear and they'll change the subsidy midyear if your income changes significantly in either direction. You may affect your decision from amongst the varous silver plans offer in your state.
