Not Worth Purchasing Resale

[DVCSunDevil]

It's about exit strategy, not demographics. Resale continues to make sense to anyone who doesn't plan to hold. I don't care about any of the future resorts or the discounts because I won't be holding long enough for it to matter.

But yea, as the 2042s get cheaper and cheaper, direct is going to be selling a 50 year gorilla with a scary chart, versus cheaply dipping your toes into beach club. That might make resale look even better when you aren't looking for a 50 year commitment with a mortgage payment. Many buyers aren't.

Your point about not wanted to get locked into a 50 year commitment is a great one. We bought into BCV in February 2020 (just before COVID...yikes) and one of the things that we actually liked was the 2042 expiration year. I know may sound crazy to all those people who are looking to get into the properties with the longest expiration possible, but we will be 67 years old in 2042. That is the perfect age, IMO, to have a contract expire. We didn't want to be locked into a contract until we were 98 years old. 22 years of DVC is the perfect amount of time to enjoy everything DVC has to offer, and then if we really wanted to keep it going we could buy back in at that time. No one knows what the future brings and in 22 years we may have had our fill of DVC...who knows (although we love Disney so hopefully that doesn't happen). The point is that we will at least have the option to get out of DVC via natural contract expiration at a young enough age to enjoy other travel options.

 

[VdoesDisney]

Your point about not wanted to get locked into a 50 year commitment is a great one. We bought into BCV in February 2020 (just before COVID...yikes) and one of the things that we actually liked was the 2042 expiration year. I know may sound crazy to all those people who are looking to get into the properties with the longest expiration possible, but we will be 67 years old in 2042. That is the perfect age, IMO, to have a contract expire. We didn't want to be locked into a contract until we were 98 years old. 22 years of DVC is the perfect amount of time to enjoy everything DVC has to offer, and then if we really wanted to keep it going we could buy back in at that time. No one knows what the future brings and in 22 years we may have had our fill of DVC...who knows (although we love Disney so hopefully that doesn't happen). The point is that we will at least have the option to get out of DVC via natural contract expiration at a young enough age to enjoy other travel options.

Great points being made on this topic, we had a similar situation, we are *hopefully* 1-2 days away from closing on our BWV contract and my SO specifically liked the 21 year timeline, some people may actually prefer the shorter term commitment.
On the demographics point, I don’t think you can bucketize all resale or all direct buyers, every buyer has individual considerations when buying, we bought resale because as FL residents the AP discount with direct is irrelevant, and because my SO has zero desire to stay at RIV, maybe a future resort will change that, maybe we’ll move for jobs, maybe our kid decides they are not into Disney so we end up selling instead of adding, every DVC purchase is unique IMO.

 

[cgodzyk]

I love reading other peoples views on this subject! Our take is a little different. We own VGF, CCV, and RIV, all with more than 40 plus years left. Now we are waiting for a resale contract to be executed for BWV. We'll be in our early 70's in 2042, so that date doesn't bother us too much. I hope we will still be enjoying many trips to WDW in our 70s (and maybe longer!), but if not, the ones that expire later will be gifted to our children (or grands!).

 

[CSLucas]

On the demographics point, I don’t think you can bucketize all resale or all direct buyers, every buyer has individual considerations when buying

That's why I said "typical" buyer - I agree there will always be people who buy for all different reasons, but my point is that Disney is looking towards the future and identifying their target demographic for the next 20-30 years. Most of the people who have commented on here about 2042 being attractive have said they will be in their 60's-70's in 2042 and winding down their time at Disney (although I'm sure not all of them and there are people who will be in their 40s on 2042 who are also buying those resorts). I will just be entering my 50's, and although I certainly might be tired of Disney at that time, I'm not going to risk having to shell out a ton more money to buy-in again in 21 years when I could spend the extra money today in order to have access to an Epcot resort. My point isn't that nobody my age and younger is interested in resale or that nobody older is interested in direct, just that when 2042 no longer represents a normal "winding down" time then the conversation is a very different one and the product difference starts to be significant. For me it isn't about the blue card or the discounts - it's simply a numbers game of how many resorts I can expect to still have access to when my kids go to college or when I have grandchildren to take to Disney.

 

[Bjaiken77]

I’m in my early 40s and my fiancé is in her 30s. We added on at SSR with as many resale points as we could afford right before things started to get ridiculous on the resale side. I got to admit, as much as SSR’s expiration date is still a decent amount of time out, it still bothers me.

I’m going to watch how things go in the next 3-5 years and may sell and trade back to a resort with more remaining use years. However, for now, it was the best combination of purchase price, dues, and years remaining, so it became our choice. Also, I don’t have my blue card yet, and just like I don’t lose sleep about the SSR expiration date, it still bothers my neurotic mind a bit. Not to the point where I lose sleep over it but just to the point where I’m constantly crafting a plan to add on direct.

 

[ScubaCat]

5000+ quarts of milk later they're square!

However I think they meant that even tough they use the discount the resale savings still make it worth buying resale.

I'm not that deep of a thinker lol. I'm just saying that $170 a point is still a lot less than $245 to me. Sure the gap may be a little more narrow, but we're still potentially talking tens of thousands of dollars difference depending on how much you buy. Or if you have a fixed amount to spend, it could be 50-100 or even more points difference. The idea that resale "isn't worth the hassle" seems ludicrous to me. But, everyone's different.

 

[VdoesDisney]

That's why I said "typical" buyer - I agree there will always be people who buy for all different reasons, but my point is that Disney is looking towards the future and identifying their target demographic for the next 20-30 years. Most of the people who have commented on here about 2042 being attractive have said they will be in their 60's-70's in 2042 and winding down their time at Disney (although I'm sure not all of them and there are people who will be in their 40s on 2042 who are also buying those resorts). I will just be entering my 50's, and although I certainly might be tired of Disney at that time, I'm not going to risk having to shell out a ton more money to buy-in again in 21 years when I could spend the extra money today in order to have access to an Epcot resort. My point isn't that nobody my age and younger is interested in resale or that nobody older is interested in direct, just that when 2042 no longer represents a normal "winding down" time then the conversation is a very different one and the product difference starts to be significant. For me it isn't about the blue card or the discounts - it's simply a numbers game of how many resorts I can expect to still have access to when my kids go to college or when I have grandchildren to take to Disney.

I get your point, we’ll be in our mid-late 50s when 2042 comes around, I actually was initially inclined to buy a 2060+ resort for resale and longevity reasons but ultimately decided we love BWV and there is an appeal to having a natural exit strategy in 20 years. What I’m trying to say is that we all have different reasons for buying specific ways and specific home resorts and I can still see people justifying resale for 2042, 2057, or 2060+ resorts if the math and emotional component fit their specific situation. Likewise I completely see the reasons for buying direct too, and they’ll probably be even stronger as we get close to 2042 and buying direct is the only way to get access to the entire portfolio of resorts after a big chunk expire.
Someone said this in another thread but it’s funny how most of us go crazy with spreadsheets to make rational DVC purchases, when at the end of the day we’re buying vacations and the emotional component is huge.

 

[ckb_nc]

Interesting to think about Disney and the next demo. I will be 87 when SSR expires in 2054 (wow that is weird to just type). So when we bought I looked at that thinking by then my best WDW days (firs time at MK I was 10) will be firmly in my rear view. So by then I will if I am alibe be ok not renewing (whatever that looks like).

If was 20 years younger, it would be a consideration. I will say the recent resale restrictions are a big deal. The AP discount with the blue card is a truly a big deal in hindsight that I did not calculate. I have now used that discount multiple times. DVC remains to date one of my favorite things

 

[Flynn's Gal]

Here is some data from last few years, big jump in 2018 too, we've not seen a big fall since 2008/09. Small drop last year when no contracts ROFR'd for 3 months.
Prices have gone from rebounding to exploding and this data for 2021 is already very conservative
https://www.disboards.com/threads/purchasing-dvc-analysis.3828292/#post-62745591

Thank you.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

I think it depends on the resort. I would probably still opt for resale at 180 or 190 than 255. That is still 6000.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I'm not that deep of a thinker lol. I'm just saying that $170 a point is still a lot less than $245 to me. Sure the gap may be a little more narrow, but we're still potentially talking tens of thousands of dollars difference depending on how much you buy. Or if you have a fixed amount to spend, it could be 50-100 or even more points difference. The idea that resale "isn't worth the hassle" seems ludicrous to me. But, everyone's different.

It has nothing to do with the hassle of purchasing. The resale market has changed. The cheaper resorts are the 2042 end time. That is a different value than a 2064, etc. The savings are not the same. Dollar for dollar, there may be a savings but not when you look at the individual product. Also demand dictates price. Disney can list whatever price they feel is profitable, but resale pricing is affected differently. Just to make a blanket statement that resales saves you money based solely on a dollar amount isn’t prudent. YMMV.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I think it depends on the resort. I would probably still opt for resale at 180 or 190 than 255. That is still 6000.

But if it’s not your point requirement your looking for or UY, and losing the previous years points, well that shrinks the savings.

 

[CastAStone]

Resale prices have really increased and at what point does it not make sense to purchase resale? Recently I purchased VGF direct because I could not find a contract under 100 points for less than $190-$200/ pt. depending the number of points. I finally purchased at $255/pt. The resale prices have jumped so high I fail to see any savings at this time. The advertising of ” save up to 40% purchasing resale” is simply not true.

With that said, when might direct prices increase?

You can pretty much guarantee a direct price increase when the discount is only 30%. So SSR for example should be considered imminent.

 

[CastAStone]

It's still there. That's why the RIV rack rate is so high. I saw it a couple weeks ago.

Yes! I have mentioned this before and got roasted for it, but Riviera’s cash booking price is unsustainable, and seems clearly targeted at keeping that 40% off number alive.

 

[gskywalker]

I'm not that deep of a thinker lol. I'm just saying that $170 a point is still a lot less than $245 to me. Sure the gap may be a little more narrow, but we're still potentially talking tens of thousands of dollars difference depending on how much you buy. Or if you have a fixed amount to spend, it could be 50-100 or even more points difference. The idea that resale "isn't worth the hassle" seems ludicrous to me. But, everyone's different.

In the last year in a half I have bought two contracts. One direct and one resale I am glad I did both the way I did. I bought the min. 75 OKW @$155. We are out of country. It cost us $12k for the contract and in the first two years we saved 6k in annual passes. Buying direct was a no brainer. Only change I would make with hindsight was I would likely have changed the resort to AKV, maybe CCV or Riviera depending on cost. Then a few weeks ago we closed on our resale AUL $70 pp, 150 point contract. That was after having 3 BLT and one AKV contracts taken. Resale was a pain, way more work, patience etc. Now would I do it again? For that price for sure, at current prices(crazy the difference a few months make) I would probably buy direct Riviera if I would buy at all. The cutting of the magical Express has us planning to stay offsite, likely at Sheraton Vista, because we will have to rent a vehicle anyway.

 

[Wedgeout]

Just my opinion. Resale will always be worth it over direct. I would only buy resale though to get the most bang for my buck. Current prices aren’t sparking that interest. So much debate over “2042”. That’s two decades!! Two decades folks!! Why so much worry and trying to predict what is going to happen? Live for the now and enjoy life. Let the future happen naturally and adapt. Having a 2042 resort that is so awesome and you love staying there is all that should matter. If you want a Blue Card then get it. I’d however only pay the cheapest amount to get that. (I wanted one so I bought OKW which happens to be a favorite nostalgic place to me). I love the Beach Club and saved over $100 per point!! I don’t give a hoot about 2042.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

You can pretty much guarantee a direct price increase when the discount is only 30%. So SSR for example should be considered imminent.

I think they will leave SSR for a while. They need to keep something somewhat affordable.

 

[CastAStone]

I think they will leave SSR for a while. They need to keep something somewhat affordable.

If it gets to where they’re buying it at $125 and selling it at $165, they’re going to either stop buying it (like they’ve done with VGC) or raise the price. That’s simply not enough profit to be worth their time. OKW can be the entry level resort.

They’ve made massive improvements to Saratoga springs in the last several years come on putting in a Second Feature pool, upgrading some of the restaurants, The whole Disney Springs redo, and now doing this massive renovation. I think they are thrilled that the price is going up.

 

[Joey46ski]

Resale prices have really increased and at what point does it not make sense to purchase resale? Recently I purchased VGF direct because I could not find a contract under 100 points for less than $190-$200/ pt. depending the number of points. I finally purchased at $255/pt. The resale prices have jumped so high I fail to see any savings at this time. The advertising of ” save up to 40% purchasing resale” is simply not true.

With that said, when might direct prices increase?

Just bought 75 BWV points for $154/pp. small contracts are a bit higher, but direct is $210pp, that’s a substantial difference. Have 215 direct, so it was an easy decision.

 

[DVCsloth]

I don't think the blue card is a big deal, but it would need to be a perfect fit for me to consider resale ever again. I actually bought my first 2 contracts resale in 2014 and 2015 both VGF so the only restriction I believe is on Concierge and cruises and I was not interested in that. I added on direct at CCV and it was so easy, points loaded right away, bought just before my use year so I had double points for my first trip. Put it on my CC with 3 payments, no hassle and no restrictions. I may consider resale again one day but no way I would buy it currently. This is just my opinion and not knocking anyone for saving hard earned money. If you are informed and patient I think you can still do pretty good resale.