News Round Up

[clsteve]

So, that's interesting:

Overall individual park attendance growth 2004-2013 (I picked a 10-year window, since by 2004 DAK was well established. If I'd gone one year earlier it would've been even bigger as there was a real surge from 2003 to 2006.)

MK - 23 % growth
Epcot - 19 % growth
DHS - 27 % growth
DAK - 40 % growth

Overall - 24 % growth

Looking at the numbers - the biggest surges in growth were 2003-2006 and then 2011-2013. From 2005-2011 levels were very flat. This tells me one of two things:
(1) The economy was good during these periods
(2) These also coincide with periods of time where new attractions were opening up.

It also tells me that Disney does not appear to be really hurting for attendance, as many on this board would like us to believe. Perhaps a 2.4 % average growth per year is not as much as Disney would like, but I think when you think of the numbers, its definitely an example that WDW is in no way "hurting" for attendance.

Well, a statistician would say - you need to start the surge as compared to the high in '91 for MK and EPCOT And the opens for the additional Parks

EPCOT still hasn't recovered. MK just has.

As lockedoutlogic points out, WDW is unique in that with ParkHoppers and co-location it is very much a double count (or quadruple count).

MK is the baseline for attendance - who goes on a Disney vacation and doesn't go to MK...?

That's why, I've been on the Length of Stay soapbox for awhile - it really does matter in just about every financial statistic....

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Another thing to add is there was a CEO switch in 2005 and thats when we see a decrease in the amount of attractions built.

This...is what all us "negative nancies" have been banging the drums about.

No offense pixies, but this is a problem...it's not "my problem"...it's "our problem". You just don't see it yet.

Should I wait 20 Years before I bring it up? Would it be ok then?

I have to go now...must book "chip and dales premium milk an cookies exclusive premium dessert party" (in the utilidoors beneath pinnocchios) during the MVMCP right now before it sells out.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Disney has used/discarded Florida residents as they deemed fit for a long time.

They have been too Standoffish and it's not real becoming of them.

Then a recession hits...and they stand out in I-4 trying to peddle Play Four tickets.

Just a different beast altogether. It's not convenient for half the US population (the east coast) to go to California...it's far and crowded, and you can't drive your H3 or F-250 on the 405, and "scary" to us eastern birds...DL has to depend on the locals

Wdw is Incredibly accessible for people 1000 miles away... So locals are disregarded heavily.

 

[faneuil]

Disney has used/discarded Florida residents as they deemed fit for a long time.

For some reason I don't quite understand, they seem to need FL residents again. Cause they're pushing, and pushing hard. More than any of the other theme parks.

Is this a good time to say I'd love to have a "locals only" (Meaning FL AP only) Halloween party night? No? Didn't think so. But wouldn't that be a great perk.

 

[faneuil]

This...is what all us "negative nancies" have been banging the drums about.

No offense pixies, but this is a problem...it's not "my problem"...it's "our problem". You just don't see it yet.

Should I wait 20 Years before I bring it up? Would it be ok then?

Am I the only person who think Disney is just too big and has it's fingers in too many pots for one person to be at the helm?

I realize you have Staggs "running" the Parks and Resorts - but still, the cheese stops with Iger, right? He's more of a studios guy, while Eisner was more of a Parks guy. (I really don't want this to become an Iger/Eisner debate) Or did I inhale pixie dust?

 

[lockedoutlogic]

For some reason I don't quite understand, they seem to need FL residents again. Cause they're pushing, and pushing hard. More than any of the other theme parks.

Is this a good time to say I'd love to have a "locals only" (Meaning FL AP only) Halloween party night? No? Didn't think so. But wouldn't that be a great perk.

That's very interesting indeed... As by all accounts they are doing very well and wouldn't push for Florida residents...
(The amount of TV ads in 01-02 was pathetic)

Something seems to be brewing behind the numbers...I'm thinking the books aren't where they had expected/wanted them to be in Florida...

Hmmmm....

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Am I the only person who think Disney is just too big and has it's fingers in too many pots for one person to be at the helm?

I realize you have Staggs "running" the Parks and Resorts - but still, the cheese stops with Iger, right? He's more of a studios guy, while Eisner was more of a Parks guy. (I really don't want this to become an Iger/Eisner debate) Or did I inhale pixie dust?

Staggs is an accountant...Iger is a TV production guy.

Eisner started as a TV creative guy... Then became a movie guy that authorized creative development (Paramount's run off success from 77-86 or so cannot be separated from Diller/Eisner...it's indisputable), and then became a park fanatic shortly after coming to disney.

I'm not making an argument...just stating the facts.

 

[TipsyTraveler]

Thank you, thank you...

That chart is a great resource...

It tells you two things off the bat:
1. The Japanese economy collapsed with the tech bubble crash (it was slight more than that...but I'm simplifying)
2. wdw attendance has basically been flat for its entire history. showing little significant gain.

That stinks...as the only way they got an add on so far is by opening entirely new parks...
And you can see the across the board dip for the other three parks concurrently when DAK opened.

It's also ironic... That the one "significant" growth period was 94-97... The height of the "Disney decade" that had large scale construction underway across property...notably hotels and early DVC.

So perhaps the "significant" investment that CMB has done in the parks just isn't coming off that way?
Just a theory.

Are you sure that big drop in Tokyo Disneyland attendance numbers was primarily due to the economy? I interpret it as the affect the opening of Disney Sea had on it. The combined attendance of the two parks in 2001 is about 7 million more than TDL ever was by itself. More people visiting TDR, but now they're splitting their time between two parks.

 

[lockedoutlogic]

Are you sure that big drop in Tokyo Disneyland attendance numbers was primarily due to the economy? I interpret it as the affect the opening of Disney Sea had on it. The combined attendance of the two parks in 2001 is about 7 million more than TDL ever was by itself. More people visiting TDR, but now they're splitting their time between two parks.

You're right...I stand corrected. I knew I was missing something when I looked at that number when I was typing...
Completely brain farted on Disney sea

Mea culpa

 

[wallrock]

Am I the only person who think Disney is just too big and has it's fingers in too many pots for one person to be at the helm?

I realize you have Staggs "running" the Parks and Resorts - but still, the cheese stops with Iger, right? He's more of a studios guy, while Eisner was more of a Parks guy. (I really don't want this to become an Iger/Eisner debate) Or did I inhale pixie dust?

I wouldn't say it's a question of being too big. Wall Street loves diversity.

The question is which segment are you going to focus on. In Iger's case it's media, so that's the direction the company as a whole will go.


The perverse beauty of the situation is that they can do this and still rake in the cash from their other big division - the parks. The domestic parks, especially Orlando, are living off of brand name at this point and can pull in the crowds with little investment. I'm sure the suits have sat in a conference room in Burbank more than once and exclaimed that they couldn't have orchestrated this any better and that they can't believe their luck. The naysayers in the conference room, if there are any, are probably wondering how long they can keep this up.

The answer to that question will be up to us.

 

[clsteve]

For some reason I don't quite understand, they seem to need FL residents again. Cause they're pushing, and pushing hard. More than any of the other theme parks.

That's very interesting indeed... As by all accounts they are doing very well and wouldn't push for Florida residents...
(The amount of TV ads in 01-02 was pathetic)

Something seems to be brewing behind the numbers...I'm thinking the books aren't where they had expected/wanted them to be in Florida...

Hmmmm....

Yep, you don't need them --- until you suddenly need them, of course....

That stick in the anthill is looking firmly planted- seems like they might be firing up the big pixie dust machines for EOY.....

 

[LeeAndRobin]

Very good point.
the rise in home schooling,...

Homeschooled students represent about 3.4% of the US school population. Assuming every one of them went to Disney, it would be a tiny effect. I seriously doubt even half of homeschooled children go to Disney, so this effect is basically lost in the noise...

Cheers,
--Lee

 

[faneuil]

Staggs is an accountant...Iger is a TV production guy.

Eisner started as a TV creative guy... Then became a movie guy that authorized creative development (Paramount's run off success from 77-86 or so cannot be separated from Diller/Eisner...it's indisputable), and then became a park fanatic shortly after coming to disney.

I'm not making an argument...just stating the facts.

Thank you! I had forgotten Eisner's "early" years. lol

When I met him in 1998, he was nothing but insanely in love with the parks and their success. It showed in so many ways.

 

[faneuil]

Homeschooled students represent about 3.4% of the US school population. Assuming every one of them went to Disney, it would be a tiny effect. I seriously doubt even half of homeschooled children go to Disney, so this effect is basically lost in the noise...

Cheers,
--Lee

Any change that allows people to travel differently causes fluctuations in crowds. A school system suddenly having an October break causes an uptick in people from that area visiting WDW at the same time.

Is it a drop in the bucket? Sure. But all those drops make it easier to see why attendance at Disney is growing - but spreading more evenly across all 52 weeks.

 

[skier_pete]

Well, a statistician would say - you need to start the surge as compared to the high in '91 for MK and EPCOT And the opens for the additional Parks

EPCOT still hasn't recovered. MK just has.

As lockedoutlogic points out, WDW is unique in that with ParkHoppers and co-location it is very much a double count (or quadruple count).

MK is the baseline for attendance - who goes on a Disney vacation and doesn't go to MK...?

I think you misunderstand how they count attendance.

Each person is only counted ONCE, based on the park they first enter for the day. If you start at MK, and then go to Epcot at night, you are counted as having gone to MK, not to Epcot. (Disney's internal count is probably different, but for the purpose of the

There is no double-counting.
Opening a new theme park is all about spreading out the attendance.

The only SKEW I see in the numbers is probably with Animal Kingdom. AK gets a lot of people starting out there, but rarely gets people coming into it as a second park.

So MK peak at 17.0 Million in 1997. They opened AK and that split population 4 ways instead of 3. Currently, the first three parks are back up to the level that they were in 1997. Add on AK 10 million visitors. That's 10 million MORE people.

Part of the reason that attendance is up yet the parks aren't generally overcrowded is that Disney has effectively spread out crowds much better than back in the nineties. September, October, November, January, May were all very slow months. Not anymore.

 

[faneuil]

Each person is only counted ONCE, based on the park they first enter for the day. If you start at MK, and then go to Epcot at night, you are counted as having gone to MK, not to Epcot. (Disney's internal count is probably different, but for the purpose of the

I'd be very interested in park hopping and re-entry data. I'm sure Disney tracks that some way, but otherwise, I'm one body - so I get counted once for attendance records.

 

[DanBoris]

I think you misunderstand how they count attendance.

Each person is only counted ONCE, based on the park they first enter for the day. If you start at MK, and then go to Epcot at night, you are counted as having gone to MK, not to Epcot. (Disney's internal count is probably different, but for the purpose of the

There is no double-counting.
Opening a new theme park is all about spreading out the attendance.

The only SKEW I see in the numbers is probably with Animal Kingdom. AK gets a lot of people starting out there, but rarely gets people coming into it as a second park.

So MK peak at 17.0 Million in 1997. They opened AK and that split population 4 ways instead of 3. Currently, the first three parks are back up to the level that they were in 1997. Add on AK 10 million visitors. That's 10 million MORE people.

Part of the reason that attendance is up yet the parks aren't generally overcrowded is that Disney has effectively spread out crowds much better than back in the nineties. September, October, November, January, May were all very slow months. Not anymore.

All the numbers being discussed originate from the TEA/AECOM Theme and Museum Index Report. Disney doesn't provide the raw park numbers to them, so technically they aren't counting anything. They user other sources of data to make the attendance estimates.

 

[faneuil]

New funko figures coming...
Jungle book and Robin Hood

http://funko.com/blogs/news/17229171-pop-disney-the-jungle-book-and-robin-hood-coming-soon

 

[lockedoutlogic]

I think you misunderstand how they count attendance.

Each person is only counted ONCE, based on the park they first enter for the day. If you start at MK, and then go to Epcot at night, you are counted as having gone to MK, not to Epcot. (Disney's internal count is probably different, but for the purpose of the

There is no double-counting.
Opening a new theme park is all about spreading out the attendance.

The only SKEW I see in the numbers is probably with Animal Kingdom. AK gets a lot of people starting out there, but rarely gets people coming into it as a second park.

So MK peak at 17.0 Million in 1997. They opened AK and that split population 4 ways instead of 3. Currently, the first three parks are back up to the level that they were in 1997. Add on AK 10 million visitors. That's 10 million MORE people.

Part of the reason that attendance is up yet the parks aren't generally overcrowded is that Disney has effectively spread out crowds much better than back in the nineties. September, October, November, January, May were all very slow months. Not anymore.

Wouldn't AECOM be dependent on numbers that Disney gives them though? Could be washed.

They should track the number of entrants crossing under the purple arches... That's the only "true count". Maybe radio tag everyone like deer and have NASA track them back
In Minnesota in the bathroom?

Ok...maybe not quite that way...

So they have 10,000,000 more aggregate travelers than 16 years ago... Or 625,000 per year net increase.

625,000 in a year equates to 10 "moderate -heavy" crowds at magic kingdom...or roughly 50% capacity.

So that's 10 out of 365...times 16 = 160. So they've added alot on half the days of the year...

But...then you divide it by 4 parks and your back to 40 days...not so good.

What my point?
I have none! I'm Just sleep deprived and having fun with numbers.

My stance is that the last "bump" was in the 90's and it's been inflation based on the target population since.

 

[clsteve]

I think you misunderstand how they count attendance.

Each person is only counted ONCE, based on the park they first enter for the day. If you start at MK, and then go to Epcot at night, you are counted as having gone to MK, not to Epcot. (Disney's internal count is probably different, but for the purpose of the

There is no double-counting.
Opening a new theme park is all about spreading out the attendance.

The only SKEW I see in the numbers is probably with Animal Kingdom. AK gets a lot of people starting out there, but rarely gets people coming into it as a second park.

So MK peak at 17.0 Million in 1997. They opened AK and that split population 4 ways instead of 3. Currently, the first three parks are back up to the level that they were in 1997. Add on AK 10 million visitors. That's 10 million MORE people.

Part of the reason that attendance is up yet the parks aren't generally overcrowded is that Disney has effectively spread out crowds much better than back in the nineties. September, October, November, January, May were all very slow months. Not anymore.

I would absolutely love to see the source for that.

The way it was explained to me is that there's more complexity to it than just your one Park.

There's always conflict on this, so would love to see what you have to put this to bed.

It would help us all...