News Round Up 2016

How would it affect the stand-by lines for these 3 rides? The same number of fast passes would be given out as there are today. The tiers just keep the same people from collecting all 3 fast passes.

Simple math.

Lets say 50,000 go to Epcot on any given day. Now, in the current scenario, those folks can only choose 1 of the following: FEA, Soarin, or Test Track. This means that across all three of these rides, you have a maximum of 50,000 reserved FP ride times, leaving all other openings for stand by.

If there were no tiers, they could choose all three. These means that *each* ride has 50,000 reserved ride times for FP+ now, so a grand total of 150,000 reserved ride times across all three. That is 3x as many FP+ reservations on these three rides. You can't increase the FP+ reservation number without affecting that standby lines. You have effectively taken 100,000 rides out of circulation.

Meanwhile, everyone else gets pushed into the tier 2 lines, because all their tier 1 rides are booked. So suddenly living with the land has 50k more people waiting in it throughout the day, etc....

And god forbid you are one of the people that tours without fastpasses. Because now the top three rides are booked like crazy, so you can look forward to 90 minute waits for all three of them now, even at opening, as they are booked with FP+ from open to close.
 

Simple math.

Lets say 50,000 go to Epcot on any given day. Now, in the current scenario, those folks can only choose 1 of the following: FEA, Soarin, or Test Track. This means that across all three of these rides, you have a maximum of 50,000 reserved FP ride times, leaving all other openings for stand by.

If there were no tiers, they could choose all three. These means that *each* ride has 50,000 reserved ride times for FP+ now, so a grand total of 150,000 reserved ride times across all three. That is 3x as many FP+ reservations on these three rides. You can't increase the FP+ reservation number without affecting that standby lines. You have effectively taken 100,000 rides out of circulation.

Meanwhile, everyone else gets pushed into the tier 2 lines, because all their tier 1 rides are booked. So suddenly living with the land has 50k more people waiting in it throughout the day, etc....

And god forbid you are one of the people that tours without fastpasses. Because now the top three rides are booked like crazy, so you can look forward to 90 minute waits for all three of them now, even at opening, as they are booked with FP+ from open to close.

I think the point he's trying to make is that if you add 100,000 FP+ reservations, you are also potentially eliminating 100,000 people from the standby lines. Obviously it's not as simple as a fixed number of people want to ride each day no matter what the waits are, but it's an interesting thought (basically would making it so you can FP all three equally or close to equally offset the number of people waiting in standby). Likewise, I doubt many more get pushed to tier 2. Sure, people who don't get those 3 top guys will be forced to pick among the bottom rides, but that is already happening (you can only pick one top ride, so you have to pick 2 of the lower rides anyways), so I don't think you see too much of an increase due to that. For me personally, I don't think the offset would be great enough (for example, I am the only one in my family that would do Soarin'. I won't wait 60 minutes, but I would consider waiting say 30 minutes. So if the standby drops to say 20 minutes because of the increased FP uses, you would add people like me to standby).
 
My point was, lets say almost everyone does get the top 3 rides. That means, they didn't get many/if any FP's for the tier 2 rides. Which puts them all in the standby lines.

Also, there are a number of tier 2 rides that I suspect many families wouldn't touch unless there was no wait. I, for one, wouldn't go on Living with the Land or the Seas rides if there was a wait of more than 5 minutes. But now all the families that used to be standing in line for either soarin, or FEA, or whatever are no going to be doing other things with their time... like waiting in tier 2 lines.

You can't eliminate 4 hours worth of lines (a guess as to the wait time one would spend to try and hit those top three rides) without pushing those lines into other places.
 
My point was, lets say almost everyone does get the top 3 rides. That means, they didn't get many/if any FP's for the tier 2 rides. Which puts them all in the standby lines.

Also, there are a number of tier 2 rides that I suspect many families wouldn't touch unless there was no wait. I, for one, wouldn't go on Living with the Land or the Seas rides if there was a wait of more than 5 minutes. But now all the families that used to be standing in line for either soarin, or FEA, or whatever are no going to be doing other things with their time... like waiting in tier 2 lines.

You can't eliminate 4 hours worth of lines (a guess as to the wait time one would spend to try and hit those top three rides) without pushing those lines into other places.

Sure, but how many of those people right now that say get a FP for Soarin' have a FP for Living with the Lands/Seas already (because you still have to get 2 of them) and proceed to get into Standby for Test Track later in the day? It's all about how it would offset. It obviously wouldn't as they have the tiers for a reason (and worth much different debate), but I do get where that original comment comes from. It's not quite as simple of math as you make it out to be.
 
While the math may not be simple, my point, however, *is*. You can't open up the top three rides for everyone and not have it impact the standby lines for everyone else.

I could spend a week building line wait models based on 1, 2, or 3 FP's for tier 1 rides, but at the end of the day, it will illustrate the same thing as my simple examples I've just given.

Take people out of the longest lines in the park, and they have two options. Leave early, or get in line for other things. If they get in line for other things, guess what, those lines get longer.
 












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