New Winter 23-24 incentives are live

[Paul Stupin]

See I’m sitting here wondering if we’ll see the direct price at $295 within a month. Why do you say carbonite?

Just a Star Wars reference indicating that direct price will never go lower. But you‘re right, it will certainly go up, probably past the original sold out price of $250. But as a VGF owner, I don’t think that’s bad news for resale.

 

[Ruttangel]

I think what surprises me the most is that here we are in Q1 - FY2024... Disney Vacation Club was already called out last quarter for lower-than-anticipated sales and now they are stuck with these three properties and no real eyecatching incentives. They are going to have to expect a lot from Riviera to drive this division of the company until we see Poly or Fort Wilderness sales begin, which I have to assume won't be until spring of 2024.

So did they push too hard too quickly with VGF incentives? Were they short-sighted in planning for the future and building new properties more quickly? I'll be very interested to come back to this discussion in a month after we see November sales numbers.

The VGF base price in the summer was $193pp, they probably got some incentive from other parts of parks and resorts to offer the welcome home and as for the MB well that means they could use some of the points to generate some cash sales.
Was $193 really all that low if they could get some costs back?

 

[CastAStone]

Just a Star Wars reference indicating that direct price will never go lower. But you‘re right, it will certainly go up, probably past the original sold out price of $250. But as a VGF owner, I don’t think that’s bad news for resale.

I do get the reference.

I think it will be good for resale, yes, especially in the short term. The “natural” resale price of VGF was clearly pushed down by VGF 2; however, I think it’s probably wrong to think it will command the premium vs the other WDW resorts that it did 3 years ago, especially over time; I think that premium was heavily based on the tiny number of points available, and the new significantly higher point total will slot it (in several years when the new buyers are selling contracts) between Poly and BLT.

 

[DanCali]

I have to say I’m surprised that there aren’t more ambitious incentives on RIV and/or AUL, but I have a purely speculative theory—they are keeping seasonal prices high to really drive FOMO with some combination of (a) very limited Black Friday flash sale, (b) a short-term surprise holiday promotion, or (c) slightly better pre-sale incentives for the cabins or Poly Tower.

Speculative theory, or wishful thinking?

I also think maybe they took a closer look at the delayed close VGF numbers and realize they can coast on those delayed close sales to boost numbers for the next couple months? Surely I’m not the only experienced DVC buyer who waited until September and then got Disney to extend payments as long as possible.

Some people may extend the payments like that. But we didn't ask and were not offered the option. There are probably quite a few people who pay in full and are not aware they can extend payments, or prefer not to do it.

You may also be surprised how many people simply finance the purchases, which would not delay closings. If I search for all deeds involving "riviera resort" with DVD as either grantor or grantee (which would exclude resales) since 1/1/2023, I get about 2603 deeds and 1692 mortgages. That's about 65% of deeds that are financed. So yes, some people may have extended payments, but most just finance. Interestingly, that ratio for VGF since 1/1/2023 is lower at about 55% (2835 mortgages out of 5177 deeds), but still indicates the majority of purchases are financed and therefore not delayed closings.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Speculative theory, or wishful thinking?



Some people may extend the payments like that. But we didn't ask and were not offered the option. There are probably quite a few people who pay in full and are not aware they can extend payments, or prefer not to do it.

You may also be surprised how many people simply finance the purchases, which would not delay closings. If I search for all deeds involving "riviera resort" with DVD as either grantor or grantee (which would exclude resales) since 1/1/2023, I get about 2603 deeds and 1692 mortgages. That's about 65% of deeds that are financed. So yes, some people may have extended payments, but most just finance. Interestingly, that ratio for VGF since 1/1/2023 is lower at about 55% (2835 mortgages out of 5177 deeds), but still indicates the majority of purchases are financed and therefore not delayed closings.

Haha, I doubt Disney lowers direct prices anywhere near where I would buy more this year. I am considering PVB resale though…

I am truly shocked so many direct buyers are financing, especially at today’s interest rates.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Haha, I doubt Disney lowers direct prices anywhere near where I would buy more this year. I am considering PVB resale though…

I am truly shocked so many direct buyers are financing, especially at today’s interest rates.

Agreed re: financing. I’m one of those who does not think it’s a good idea.

 

[AstroBlasters]

18% rates… if a buyer defaults after ~6 years you still get your money back and the entire contract…

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

18% rates… if a buyer defaults after ~6 years you still get your money back and the entire contract…

Oh yes, I understand why the seller is financing.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Oh yes, I understand why the seller is financing.

Imagine if there was a DVC financing ETF with an 18% yield….

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Imagine if there was a DVC financing ETF with an 18% yield….

I’d happily buy it at 12%.

 

[thelionqueen]

Haha, I doubt Disney lowers direct prices anywhere near where I would buy more this year. I am considering PVB resale though…

I am truly shocked so many direct buyers are financing, especially at today’s interest rates.

Not everyone has $30-40k in passive income.

 

[thelionqueen]

Sooooo, I’m at VGC now, relaxing and waiting for my 11:30am showing at VDH. I made this appointment yesterday in advance of seeing the dismal non-incentives. As a marketing professional I’m shocked at how these promotions are grenlit..but I digress.

I definitely want to see the rooms, so I’m going to keep my appt. However, when Disney does things like this, it really leaves a bad taste in my mouth. It seemed like they’d finally found the sweet spot than consumers liked & significantly impacted sales, and one would think they’d continue with that success. Nope. Let’s continue selling RIV & AUL until the end of time at unreasonable prices, while we add on numerous more offerings also at ridiculous pricing. It begs the question, who’s doing this? Truly poor decisions at the highest level imo.

All this aside, let’s talk about the new offerings. Let’s be honest, they’re almost nothing. Modest is being kind, they’re basically non-existent. So, from someone who was eagerly awaiting the new incentives and had a credit card ready to purchase onsite, I now am considering canceling my appointment altogether. I won’t because I literally have nothing else to do before my flight, and I want to see, but that’s a massive consumer shift. Are Dis buyers like most consumers? Decidedly not, but it’s a good indicator for current owners (arguably Disneys biggest built in core buyers).

In short, really questionable move imo.. but what do I know? Clearly they don’t want my money which I’ll be keeping

 

[Brian Noble]

It’s just so odd that they seem to be trying to hit a specific sales rate instead of selling as much as possible.

From where I sit, this is just a continuation of the same playbook they've been using for a couple decades now. Disney is usually happy to play the long game when it comes to Parks & Resorts. I suspect part of that is brand positioning. Despite the fact that Parks & Resorts is a mass-market product, it is positioned to be more aspirational, and that's true across the spectrum from the cruise line to the theme parks. Price is a big signifier of that.

It's also worth wondering just how much faster they could build even if they wanted to given the state of the construction labor market in Central Florida.

 

[pkrieger2287]

It’s just so odd that they seem to be trying to hit a specific sales rate instead of selling as much as possible.

The margins on DVC are enormous. They should try to maximize sales always, even if it means a meaningful discount, because they can just keep making more. Yes they’ll eventually run out of places but that is someone who doesn’t work there today’s problem in 20 or 30 years.

100% agree here, and it aligns with the typical strategic direction of DVC. We all think they have some grand plan, and maybe there is a 5 or 10 year one... but it changes yearly based on objectives, hitting key performance goals, and MOST importantly, hitting the numbers for the leaders and executives at that time during that year get their bonus.

 

[TMax7]

18% rates… if a buyer defaults after ~6 years you still get your money back and the entire contract…

I financed through Disney at 9.9% last month and I am paying it off as quickly as I can

 

[sethschroeder]

Not everyone has $30-40k in passive income.

Passive income? Why do you need passive income?

You save up until the approximately 7-9 months of 0% interest means you can pay the contract with cash. You ask for split payments on the purchase over 3 months with the bulk of it at the end then charge it to your Disney Visa for 0% for 6 months. Chase will transfer credit limits between cards if you want.

Separately you can also just save it in a High Yield Savings account which pays out like 5% interest right now as well until you have enough to pay for the contract.

This isn't a car its not like I can't live without it and not like I can't still go on a trip even without it or even to Disney (rent points).

 

[thelionqueen]

Passive income? Why do you need passive income?

You save up until the approximately 7-9 months of 0% interest means you can pay the contract with cash. You ask for split payments on the purchase over 3 months with the bulk of it at the end then charge it to your Disney Visa for 0% for 6 months. Chase will transfer credit limits between cards if you want.

Separately you can also just save it in a High Yield Savings account which pays out like 5% interest right now as well until you have enough to pay for the contract.

This isn't a car its not like I can't live without it and not like I can't still go on a trip even without it or even to Disney (rent points).

Alternatively you can just finance, easy peasy. I don’t consider a car a “can’t live without it” item. I have no debt, no car payment and comfortable income. So I consider passive income something just available as needed,or dismissible income.. not sure how many people have that.

Regardless, of course you can do all sorts of financial gymnastics to lessen the cost of financing, but it’s not universally a must do or should do.. Everyone does what they can how they can. I leave my money in stocks & 401k and pay interest on my short term financing. Could I save by not doing that? Sure. Do I care? No. I like buying what I want when I want..that’s worth saving a couple hundred dollars

 

[sethschroeder]

Alternatively you can finance

For a luxury item its never a good idea or suggestion especially in a time of economic upheaval (which I suspect you will deny is currently occurring).

I could also jump in the river to float down to town instead of take the road because its faster.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Alternatively you can just finance, easy peasy. I don’t consider a car a “can’t live without it” item. I have no debt, no car payment and comfortable income. So I consider passive income something just available as needed,or dismissible income.. not sure how many people have that.

Regardless, of course you can do all sorts of financial gymnastics to lessen the cost of financing, but it’s not universally a must do or should do.. Everyone does what they can how they can. I leave my money in stocks & 401k and pay interest on my short term financing. Could I save by not doing that? Sure. Do I care? No. I like buying what I want when I want..that’s worth saving a couple hundred dollars

A $24k loan @ 10% would be around $2400 a year in interest….

 

[thelionqueen]

A $24k loan @ 10% would be around $2400 a year in interest….

A $10,000 loan at 8% for 4 months is very little. Everyone’s circumstances and thresholds are different. I’d guess that in general, most finance cars, don’t buy them outright..and other things. I’m not debating that to pay full in cash isnt the best scenario, it is. I’m saying most don’t have that option available to then, and so pay interest in order to purchase

@sethschroeder funny assumption based on knowing nothing about me. You think what you like, I’ll not reply to flippant assumptions. Back to the topic, you can and should do whatever you feel is in your best interest. Float to town if that suits you, just don’t assume everyone should follow your lead. There’s a reason financing is offered..because it’s used. Paying interest is the cost of borrowing money. If I’m ok paying it, why should anyone care? I don’t.