NEW VGF Building

[BWV Dreamin]

Agree that the majority of new VGF points will likely be 100 pts. or less and for studio accommodations. Points on the resale market have been north of $200/pt. for those contracts. If it’s only about the dollar, then yes resale will always save you money. I’m looking at the total picture and believe me when I say Disney is out to hurt the resale market. Perks are always subject to change. But if I am going to spend $15,000 to $30,000 on a timeshare I sure want exactly what I want ( UY, desired points, direct benefits). If all I want is SSR ( and that is still over priced at $125/pt.) then by all means I would buy resale. But I don’t want SSR. And I want to save at least 50% off of direct if I buy resale, which is not happening at any resort. So for me, it’s nothing or direct VGF ( which I have already done). YMMV.

 

[Bjaiken77]

Even though I’d like to add on a small point contract at VGF when it goes on sale, don’t you agree, provided there are no restrictions, that this change makes owning VGF less desirable. The old logic was “if you want to stay at VGF, you need to own at VGF.” Don’t you think the addition of 200 studios lessens that argument?

 

[stwaldman]

Even though I’d like to add on a small point contract at VGF when it goes on sale, don’t you agree, provided there are no restrictions, that this change makes owning VGF less desirable. The old logic was “if you want to stay at VGF, you need to own at VGF.” Don’t you think the addition of 200 studios lessens that argument?

It depends on a) if that resort sells out (we all seem to assume it would) and b) if those buyers are committed to booming at 11 months, making it still necessary to own there. Logic and dilution would argue that more owners increases the chance of some people trading out/booking elsewhere, likely due to the need for the larger units which are lacking. It probably just becomes more seasonal. You will still need to own there to touch it in December, which will give it some inherent value above some other resorts, but may mean it isn't the granddaddy of all (non VGC) resale contracts anymore.

 

[stwaldman]

It depends on a) if that resort sells out (we all seem to assume it would) and b) if those buyers are committed to booming at 11 months, making it still necessary to own there. Logic and dilution would argue that more owners increases the chance of some people trading out/booking elsewhere, likely due to the need for the larger units which are lacking. It probably just becomes more seasonal. You will still need to own there to touch it in December, which will give it some inherent value above some other resorts, but may mean it isn't the granddaddy of all (non VGC) resale contracts anymore.

Maybe to state another way, yes this will make VGF as big as say an OKW or others for studios, but most of those units aren't fought over at 11 months because people buy OKW or SSR as SAPs. I don't think VGF points will be treated the same in *most cases*. Poly is probably more analogous here, and it appears to retain some value above other resorts because there are enough buyers who still care about avoiding the 7 months stress, even if there's evidence that says they can get in more often than not

 

[zavandor]

I know this was intended to be humorous but the fact is that WDW can't just do that. Under land development agreements they need to have X amount of undeveloped space. Over the years Disney occasionally acquires more land, some of it remote from the main property, to satisfy the requirement.

What they told us during the backstage magic tour is that WDW is currently 1/3 developed, 1/3 left for conservation and 1/3 could be developed at any time.

 

[CarolMN]

Even though I’d like to add on a small point contract at VGF when it goes on sale, don’t you agree, provided there are no restrictions, that this change makes owning VGF less desirable. The old logic was “if you want to stay at VGF, you need to own at VGF.” Don’t you think the addition of 200 studios lessens that argument?

That doesn't seem to have affected sales for PVB, though.

 

[Bjaiken77]

I’m not saying it’d make it less financially valuable; I said it’ll make it less desirable. Specifically, I was speaking to the Disboards community that tends to know the ins and outs of DVC much better than the general public. I’d say a good portion of the public make the decision to buy with a small fraction of the knowledge that the people on Disboards possess.

So to us, the smaller group of hardcore individuals, do you think the logic still applies, knowing what we know at seven months, “if you want to stay at VGF, you have to own at VGF?” I’d argue no.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Even though I’d like to add on a small point contract at VGF when it goes on sale, don’t you agree, provided there are no restrictions, that this change makes owning VGF less desirable. The old logic was “if you want to stay at VGF, you need to own at VGF.” Don’t you think the addition of 200 studios lessens that argument?

It all depends on the points chart. If there are different booking categories for the new Pine Creek building ( is that the name?), then there still may be greater demand for the standard studios. And one will still need to own there to book them.

 

[Bjaiken77]

It all depends on the points chart. If there are different booking categories for the new Pine Creek building ( is that the name?), then there still may be greater demand for the standard studios. And one will still need to own there to book.

I mean, I guess it all depends on what your expectations are. Maybe you will still need to own there to get a solid week in a studio. However, I was going to add on 50 points in order to stay there a couple nights (May still do it). I like split stays and spending a portion of each trip closer to the park I’m going to. I certainly think 2-3 days will pop up more often, which is all I want. I think that was much rarer with the small number of studios at VGF1.

 

[stwaldman]

I’m not saying it’d make it less financially valuable; I said it’ll make it less desirable. Specifically, I was speaking to the Disboards community that tends to know the ins and outs of DVC much better than the general public. I’d say a good portion of the public make the decision to buy with a small fraction of the knowledge that the people on Disboards possess.

So to us, the smaller group of hardcore individuals, do you think the logic still applies, knowing what we know at seven months, “if you want to stay at VGF, you have to own at VGF?” I’d argue no.

There's probably a whole lot of "it depends" that won't get sorted until people know the details, but I think people who saw the value in VGF still will place a lot of value in it. Yeah, it's going to complicate the math for people who can't fit in a studio, but it's also going to intrigue new people who couldn't afford 40 points a night and couldnt get studios at 7 months. So some of that increase and drop on demand will wash.

 

[stwaldman]

There's probably a whole lot of "it depends" that won't get sorted until people know the details, but I think people who saw the value in VGF still will place a lot of value in it. Yeah, it's going to complicate the math for people who can't fit in a studio, but it's also going to intrigue new people who couldn't afford 40 points a night and couldnt get studios at 7 months. So some of that increase and drop on demand will wash.

To your own point, if your a big split stay person, yeah, there's more odds you can get in for 1-3 days on short notice now. But if you're a young family who doesn't want to move the kids during your stay, but maybe didn't have the dough for a 300 point contracts, VGF has way more appeal now. The demand will change, it's just hard to tell which direction pulls harder right now.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I mean, I guess it all depends on what your expectations are. Maybe you will still need to own there to get a solid week in a studio. However, I was going to add on 50 points in order to stay there a couple nights (May still do it). I like split stays and spending a portion of each trip closer to the park I’m going to. I certainly think 2-3 days will pop up more often, which is all I want. I think that was much rarer with the small number of studios at VGF1.

Well we really won’t know until we get more information. I also think we will see a glut of DVC points that need to be used within the next couple of years. How will this effect availability? When do you want that reservation? December? We really can’t surmise too much more until we get those point charts.

 

[Bobby2443]

I own 800 points at VGF and to be honest I don't really understand how this will affect me personally. My family prefers two bedroom units so we wouldn't be staying in this building, but how will this change the value of the points I own is something I'm curious to see, and how will the point charts change in future years for someone like myself that won't be staying in this new building.

 

[Bjaiken77]

Yeah, I’m pretty flexible. It’s just two of us and we have pretty good vacation availability. We are ok not going in December. We are going to want to go in late winter when we get sick of the cold.

 

[RoseGold]

why in the heck would I or any prospective buyer plunk down premium cash for direct points when I can just go and buy a VGF resale contract (for thousands less) and get all the same benefits for 11 month booking;

That’s the thing. VGF used to be so small there was very little resale. For months, Fidelity had no contracts at all. I don’t think direct sales is worried about a few VGF resales.

I own 800 points at VGF and to be honest I don't really understand how this will affect me personally. My family prefers two bedroom units so we wouldn't be staying in this building, but how will this change the value of the points I own is something I'm curious to see

If they use existing categories, they will add 47 lockoffs that will now be bookable! Sorry, 1BRs. If they make up new, more expensive studio categories, the old studios and thus the lockoffs will be always gone. Sorry, 2BRs.

I hope they use existing categories, as that would create a good mix with the 2BRs. But the goal here is money, and the chart works hard for Disney.

 

[Sandisw]

I see what you're saying but I think you (and others) have missed the point.

If they do this with no restrictions, how will Disney sell these new points?

That is, why in the heck would I or any prospective buyer plunk down premium cash for direct points when I can just go and buy a VGF resale contract (for thousands less) and get all the same benefits for 11 month booking; or any other o14 resale for 7 month booking. There is ABSOLUTELY no incentive to buy these new direct points.

How did they sell Riviera?

They said, if you buy direct points from us, you're good. Buy direct RIV and get 11 month booking; buy direct anywhere else and get 7 month booking.

Buy resale (o14) and too bad so sad (until you could buy RIV resale).

Still get to use them at future resorts, Still get to use them at RIV and new DLH...still get the blue card perks. Maybe they will be adding more to that part of direct sales...like ticket deals, etc.

If they come out with a price around RIV, or even down to $220 and resale is going for $180, there is still a benefit of direct,

IMO, the only way to do this is to remove VGF as we now it from BVTC, and have it rejoin as a new resort which would include all VGF owners. But, honestly, I think that would be on extremely shaky legal ground.

VGF is popular and I Think they are fine with having another option to offer new buyers along with RIV since no new construction for WDW.

 

[Marionnette]

Interesting read on DVC Fan. Aside from the points brought up here, the question of dues was also touched on. Basically, they presented two situations. The first being Jambo/Kidani where it is one condo association and all dues pay for both buildings. The second is BRV/CCV where two condo associations have separate dues but share common spaces. You can read the article for yourself but they made a good argument for VGF2 (or BPK or VGF 1.1, whatever we end up calling it) to NOT have restricted resale contracts.

https://dvcfan.com/2021/05/20/will-the-new-grand-floridian-villas-have-restrictions/

 

[Tiggerette]

I bought into VGF because it is a smaller building attached to a "flagship" hotel, and difficult to get reservations beyond the 7 month mark, which I thought would help insulate against low resale cost if I ever needed to sell. Sure, I love VGF aesthetic, but it was moreso a strategic purchase. When I bought I didn't *know* they'd build the MK pathway bridge, but I thought that if they did, it would only help in the resale insulation AND make me even more thankful for the 7-11 month window. I'm quite surprised at how much the VGF resale cost has crested. It almost feels like an artificial push like what we're seeing elsewhere in the housing market, although I know a timeshare is not the same as condo/house/apartment housing.

Someone had mentioned that having greater amount of studios, comparable to other large resorts could cause a resale cost per point decline, and I think there's merit to that argument. VGF still has insulative aspects that those large resorts do not, however. Namely, the monorail and MK pathway. I also appreciate the concerns around dues, and I am concerned that there will be an increase with the additional infrastructure.

Moreover, unless the point inflation we saw with the 2022 point chart is corrected, these additional units could confound those arguments. The new units will allow for more points to be added. If these new unit points are plopped ontop of the inflated points, then it compounds the inherent problems: Ownership dilution as the points reflect a percentage of ownership in a unit, likelihood for increased breakage, chart points that are not offset= greater points needed to reserve in 2022 as compared to 2021. The timing of the resort conversion to DVC and when the point charts may or may not be revised is very interesting.

 

[Nabas]

I really think the point charts need to be the same as current vgf studios with similar views or it creates problems for current owners. If the current studio costs 20 pt for a night and new add on studios cost 25 due to larger sq ft, history says the “value” room books out first. With so many more people competing for these rooms which are already hard to book it would effectively increase cost to stay for current owners relative to what they purchased before.

I had a similar thought.

If Disney charges more points per night for Building 9, they are going to end up with a lot of upset current VGF owners who end up having a great deal of difficulty booking at the DVC they purchased!

 

[bobbiwoz]

I am hoping for a kitchenette in the new studios. I cannot stand hotel rooms with coffee pots and you have to use the bathroom sink for water and cleanup.

What they have in the room does not satisfy me as a bona fide studio. Those would be the fewer points.