New survey .. proposal .. Tiered Ticket Prices

[Jennasis]

Len Testa isn't "the news". He isn't CNN or Fox (take your pick). He's a dude on the internets, writing a blog....his opinion. Tearing apart his fact checking or validity is as silly as citing him as an authority.

 

[Jennasis]

Second only in speed to the hysterics that invariably occur when the mere hint of a change pops up.

Followed closely by backpeddling when called out. Or as I like to call it, the "I never said/meant ____" scenario.

 

[OrangeCountyCommuter]

It can certainly be spun for those going on a bronze day, maybe even a silver but I am struggling to see how you spin it for gold guests

EASY! Gold is the easiest group to spin!

"By increasing the cost we actually have reduced the number of guests so you have a 'bronze' level crowd and will have a great time"

 

[mom2rtk]

EASY! Gold is the easiest group to spin!

"By increasing the cost we actually have reduced the number of guests so you have a 'bronze' level crowd and will have a great time"

"Guaranteed lower crowds".

When pressed, they can always say they are lower than it would have been before the big price hike.

 

[ArwenMarie]

Len Testa isn't "the news". He isn't CNN or Fox (take your pick). He's a dude on the internets, writing a blog....his opinion. Tearing apart his fact checking or validity is as silly as citing him as an authority.

Yes, exactly. He took that price chart and gave his opinion on it. Nothing more than that.

 

[MKMomma]

Followed closely by backpeddling when called out. Or as I like to call it, the "I never said/meant ____" scenario.

 

[Colleen27]

(And if you think your AP is not going to have a dramatic increase to match this, Fantasyland only exists in the MK. I am predicting a several hundred $ increase)

I agree. If you look at the chart that TP used for the analysis, part of the strategy (at least in that scenario, which we know isn't the only one) is to dramatically scale back the per-day discount for longer ticket media. If that is the case it follows that the longest tickets of all - APs and seasonal passes - will see the biggest price increase under the new structure.

It "feels" to me like Disney is testing the waters on the idea of "allowing" shorter stays and less time in the parks, rather than encouraging the all-Disney vacations they've been incentivizing, to see if they can get more money out of fewer guests. It fits with what they've been doing in recent years, reducing the perks for AP holders and other frequent guests in favor of first-time/occasional guests who spend more per day on their trips. Maybe they'd rather a guest spend part of his trip at Universal than be in a Disney park clogging up ride lines after his souvenir shopping and character meals are out of the way - better that he should hit each park (and all the unique gift shops therein) once and get out of the way to make room for someone who hasn't yet done their exit-through-the-gift-shop splurging, who is willing to book premium packages for a good view of the fireworks, etc. Most of what we're used to seeing Disney marketing do has been about pure numbers - getting more heads in beds and more guests through the gate - but it seems their strategy may gradually be shifting to selecting the right "kind" of parks guests that are the most profitable use of increasingly strained park/ride capacity.

 

[SmithSmith]

What is going on?

Why do people think I'm knocking Len Testa?

What would be my motive for trying to discredit him? I already said the original tiered pricing chart would be "a bit asinine", and furthermore, I think it would be atrocious of Disney to adopt the more extreme chart Len cited. So why would I knock someone who feels the same as I do?

All I said in my other posts was that I agreed with what he said but also pointed out what I thought was "suspicious" and "curious" about his article. That's it. There was no ill will intended with those words. I feel like people are reading something into my posts that just isn't there.

I'm sorry this discussion got sidetracked, but can we please move on? Because this used to be an interesting thread...

 

[Ambear]

The dis has a strong victim mentality unfortunately. First there are accusations someone's being attacked. Whether the OP, a pp, or a random article dude. Then once the sarcastic "jokes" start, you can consider the thread closed lol. Or posts culled. Then closed.

 

[SmithSmith]

That makes sense, but why not update the original article?

I have no idea.

How do we know that Disney didn't send that particular chart to TP.

This was my first reaction. Len comes across as a very detailed oriented person to me and I felt there were important details left out of his article. Which made me think it wasn't his idea to write it that way. But of course, that is purely speculation on my part.

 

[ArwenMarie]

I agree. If you look at the chart that TP used for the analysis, part of the strategy (at least in that scenario, which we know isn't the only one) is to dramatically scale back the per-day discount for longer ticket media. If that is the case it follows that the longest tickets of all - APs and seasonal passes - will see the biggest price increase under the new structure.

It "feels" to me like Disney is testing the waters on the idea of "allowing" shorter stays and less time in the parks, rather than encouraging the all-Disney vacations they've been incentivizing, to see if they can get more money out of fewer guests. It fits with what they've been doing in recent years, reducing the perks for AP holders and other frequent guests in favor of first-time/occasional guests who spend more per day on their trips. Maybe they'd rather a guest spend part of his trip at Universal than be in a Disney park clogging up ride lines after his souvenir shopping and character meals are out of the way - better that he should hit each park (and all the unique gift shops therein) once and get out of the way to make room for someone who hasn't yet done their exit-through-the-gift-shop splurging, who is willing to book premium packages for a good view of the fireworks, etc. Most of what we're used to seeing Disney marketing do has been about pure numbers - getting more heads in beds and more guests through the gate - but it seems their strategy may gradually be shifting to selecting the right "kind" of parks guests that are the most profitable use of increasingly strained park/ride capacity.

This is really interesting. I wonder if they think that the multi-day discounts are too low. It goes down to $35 a day at the 10-day mark. They may see room there to up that. And I agree about APs, since they most likely get the lowest price-per-day, I wouldn't be surprised to see a big price jump on those along with any other price increases, or perhaps another tier for out-of-state APs.

I think if someone is coming for a week, the Bronze or Silver days during the week may encourage them to only use the Disney parks from M-F. Frees up the precious weekend capacity at the parks and Disney still gets the hotel nights. The other thing is, if they know that a lot of people are going to spend a day or two at Universal, this might be a way to encourage them to go do that on the weekends.

 

[Marionnette]

People are jumping on the TP article without really looking at the data. Len derived his numbers from the screenshot captured by Turkey Leg Jeff (he has a copy of it in the article). That's the very same survey that we started this discussion with.

All he did was do the calculations based on the bronze-silver-gold proposed costs with the respective discounts offered at each level. IOW, he multiplied the base price of the single-day ticket by the number of days and then applied the proper %-discount before applying the 6.5% sales tax that the TLJ screenshot shows is not included in the prices shown.

Just as an example and using the proposed pricing from TLJ's screeenshot:

• A single "gold" day at the MK (before tax) is $125.
• Multiplied X10 for a 10-day pass = $1250.
• Now, factor in the 45% discount and the price becomes $687.50
• Finally, apply 6.5% sales tax to that amount and the final cost is $732.19.

Len took the same data that we have been looking at all along and did the math for us at every ticket level and pricing. The only thing Len is guilty of, in my opinion, is that he used the single-day price for the MK for all of his calculations when people staying 10 days are most likely going to visit the other parks at some point.

 

[MKMomma]

I agree. If you look at the chart that TP used for the analysis, part of the strategy (at least in that scenario, which we know isn't the only one) is to dramatically scale back the per-day discount for longer ticket media. If that is the case it follows that the longest tickets of all - APs and seasonal passes - will see the biggest price increase under the new structure.

It "feels" to me like Disney is testing the waters on the idea of "allowing" shorter stays and less time in the parks, rather than encouraging the all-Disney vacations they've been incentivizing, to see if they can get more money out of fewer guests. It fits with what they've been doing in recent years, reducing the perks for AP holders and other frequent guests in favor of first-time/occasional guests who spend more per day on their trips. Maybe they'd rather a guest spend part of his trip at Universal than be in a Disney park clogging up ride lines after his souvenir shopping and character meals are out of the way - better that he should hit each park (and all the unique gift shops therein) once and get out of the way to make room for someone who hasn't yet done their exit-through-the-gift-shop splurging, who is willing to book premium packages for a good view of the fireworks, etc. Most of what we're used to seeing Disney marketing do has been about pure numbers - getting more heads in beds and more guests through the gate - but it seems their strategy may gradually be shifting to selecting the right "kind" of parks guests that are the most profitable use of increasingly strained park/ride capacity.

Insightful analysis.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Len Testa isn't "the news". He isn't CNN or Fox (take your pick). He's a dude on the internets, writing a blog....his opinion. Tearing apart his fact checking or validity is as silly as citing him as an authority.

Meh.
Just because someone shares an opinion does not make it immune to the honor of scrutiny. No need to run under the cover of "it's just an opinion". Because people still refer to it (as they are doing here) to bolster their own opinion (either pro or con on the topic at hand).

Blogger wants to blog. Have at it. But don't use blogging as an excuse for not fact checking.

*generic opinion having nothing to do specifically with the blogger in question or opinions of people expressed here.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

People are jumping on the TP article without really looking at the data. Len derived his numbers from the screenshot captured by Turkey Leg Jeff (he has a copy of it in the article). That's the very same survey that we started this discussion with.

All he did was do the calculations based on the bronze-silver-gold proposed costs with the respective discounts offered at each level. IOW, he multiplied the base price of the single-day ticket by the number of days and then applied the proper %-discount before applying the 6.5% sales tax that the TLJ screenshot shows is not included in the prices shown.

Just as an example and using the proposed pricing from TLJ's screeenshot:

• A single "gold" day at the MK (before tax) is $125.
• Multiplied X10 for a 10-day pass = $1250.
• Now, factor in the 45% discount and the price becomes $687.50
• Finally, apply 6.5% sales tax to that amount and the final cost is $732.19.

Len took the same data that we have been looking at all along and did the math for us at every ticket level and pricing. The only thing Len is guilty of, in my opinion, is that he used the single-day price for the MK for all of his calculations when people staying 10 days are most likely going to visit the other parks at some point.

Maybe it was late last night. Or maybe it is too early this morning. But I looked at his article and at the chart in the upper right that said click to enlarge. When I enlarge that cited chart--I get under $600 for a 10 day gold.

I don't know where he got his chart posted at the bottom of the article to come to a ticket that cost twice as much.

And if I read your post correctly--why would anyone buy 1 single day tickets in a row? That is simply flawed no matter how you lol at it. To be fair, that means 10 days right now already cost over $1000. So if he did that, then blogger or not--it is irresponsible opinion making. In my opinion, of course.

(this is not knocking him-this is me being confused since ticket price charts should not be more complicated than a Rubik's cube. )

 

[Barnabe]

I've only skimmed the last few pages but I thought there had been some suggestion that the chart he was using didn't match with what was originally posted here-

Even if it did- I don't take an example posted in a survey as any indication that this is anything close to a final pricing structure. It's because I think Disney would be insane to make that kind of jump that I don't believe they'd ever do it - I don't think they're stupid.

I'm sure enough of it that it doesn't worry me in the least. As I've said before, I'll be the first to admit I'm wrong should that be the case.

Keep in mind -TP is the site who studied standby times and came up with significantly lower results than Josh- they were soundly denounced as unreliable at that point. So while it makes for an interesting read - it's not based on facts.

I do believe the claim about their target market- makes complete sense to me. But unless one is a lot better at managing their money than I am,80% price increases isn't going to include folks at the 150k income level. Even where I live that is not a lot of money.

This seems like an attack on both Touring plans and Len Testa. Touring Plans was cited as unreliable because the posted lower SB wait times than another site. But really is there any concrete evidence to support one or the other?

And sources looking to get attention know that sensationalism sells- make it sound as bad as possible and you'll get lots of attention. Is it possible Disney will jack prices 85%? Sure. Is it likely? I don't think so. Will there be a price increase someday? That one is a sure bet ....almost. But that wouldn't be "news".

Then Len Testa is accused of sensationalizing, but all he did was comment on a survey Disney provided to their guests.

This is what I think as well which is what makes the TP article annoying- the way it's written makes it out to be a forgone conclusion when it is far from it and gets people all up in arms over nothing.

This was an article of conjecture. Len Teasta was taking the information in the survey and showing what the results would be inf the tiering were implemented.

I haven't looked at the chart in depth, but that would be yet another reason why I don't put much stock in the chances that the TP article is worth much as far as what might really happen.

I'm not sure why the TP article didn't include the information that the chart they used was just one and that there were others that had been used. Nor do I understand why they didn't disclose that they used the worst case scenario available- but those 2 things make me question their article and honestly, pretty much discount it. I don't like sensationalism and not being open in the article bothers me a great deal.

I don't think Touring plans sensationalized anything. The chart used was one from an actual survey.

 

[Marionnette]

Maybe it was late last night. Or maybe it is too early this morning. But I looks at his article and at the chart in the upper right that said click to enlarge. When I enlarge that cited chart--I get under $600 for a 10 day gold.

I don't know where he got his chart posted at the bottom of the article to come to a ticket that cost twice as much.

And if I read your post correctly--why would anyone buy 1 single day tickets in a row? That is simply flawed no matter how you lol at it. To be fair, that means 10 days right now already cost over $1000. So if he did that, then blogger or not--it is irresponsible opinion making. In my opinion, of course.

(this is not knocking him-this is me being confused since ticket price charts should not be more complicated than a Rubik's cube. )

You're not following correctly. And perhaps that is my biggest objection to this whole pricing scheme - it's too darn complicated to follow easily.

The chart in TLJ's screenshot says that there is a discount for purchasing multi-day tickets: 5%-45% with more days getting a bigger discount.

You first take number of days you want to visit and multiply it by the cost of a single-day ticket. THEN YOU APPLY THE APPROPRIATE MULTI-DAY DISCOUNT FOR THE NUMBER OF DAYS ON THE TICKET YOU ARE PURCHASING. You are not purchasing 10 single-day tickets.

ETA: I don't know where you're coming up with "under $600" for a 10-day gold pass. Even if I multiply the lower 1-day "gold" ticket cost ($115) X10 and then apply the 45% discount, I still get a number that is over $600 - and that's before adding the sales tax!

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

You're not following correctly. And perhaps that is my biggest objection to this whole pricing scheme - it's too darn complicated to follow easily.

The chart in TLJ's screenshot says that there is a discount for purchasing multi-day tickets: 5%-45% with more days getting a bigger discount.

You first take number of days you want to visit and multiply it by the cost of a single-day ticket. THEN YOU APPLY THE APPROPRIATE MULTI-DAY DISCOUNT FOR THE NUMBER OF DAYS ON THE TICKET YOU ARE PURCHASING.

Okay -- you are right, it is complicated. Where did someone get that a 10 day ticket is OVER $1000....from this chart in Len's article? (Or maybe I need to back up a few pages here and read again.)

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

*so happy for an annual pass*

Now back to your regular discussion.

 

[Jennytoon]

I agree. If you look at the chart that TP used for the analysis, part of the strategy (at least in that scenario, which we know isn't the only one) is to dramatically scale back the per-day discount for longer ticket media. If that is the case it follows that the longest tickets of all - APs and seasonal passes - will see the biggest price increase under the new structure.

It "feels" to me like Disney is testing the waters on the idea of "allowing" shorter stays and less time in the parks, rather than encouraging the all-Disney vacations they've been incentivizing, to see if they can get more money out of fewer guests. It fits with what they've been doing in recent years, reducing the perks for AP holders and other frequent guests in favor of first-time/occasional guests who spend more per day on their trips. Maybe they'd rather a guest spend part of his trip at Universal than be in a Disney park clogging up ride lines after his souvenir shopping and character meals are out of the way - better that he should hit each park (and all the unique gift shops therein) once and get out of the way to make room for someone who hasn't yet done their exit-through-the-gift-shop splurging, who is willing to book premium packages for a good view of the fireworks, etc. Most of what we're used to seeing Disney marketing do has been about pure numbers - getting more heads in beds and more guests through the gate - but it seems their strategy may gradually be shifting to selecting the right "kind" of parks guests that are the most profitable use of increasingly strained park/ride capacity.

This is really interesting. I wonder if they think that the multi-day discounts are too low. It goes down to $35 a day at the 10-day mark. They may see room there to up that. And I agree about APs, since they most likely get the lowest price-per-day, I wouldn't be surprised to see a big price jump on those along with any other price increases, or perhaps another tier for out-of-state APs.

I think if someone is coming for a week, the Bronze or Silver days during the week may encourage them to only use the Disney parks from M-F. Frees up the precious weekend capacity at the parks and Disney still gets the hotel nights. The other thing is, if they know that a lot of people are going to spend a day or two at Universal, this might be a way to encourage them to go do that on the weekends.

Actually, I wondered a bit about the other direction. Most of the versions I've seen included in the questions about what you would do "I would have bought an AP". The current pricing structure promotes going to an AP for longer than 11 days (that's not exactly the math and there may be things like DVC discounts etc., but it's close). I wonder if they aren't going to try to push people towards an AP at an earlier length of stay.

What would be the advantage?

Well, the person who would buy an AP now is still going to buy an AP -- this includes people who normally make more than one medium length trip a year. No gain there.

However, the person who is coming for two weeks and would normally buy a 10 day would now buy an AP. If they never use it again, Disney loses little; many of the perks available to AP holders are available in other ways. But ... people who have APs tend to find that suddenly it's easier to go. That happened to us this year -- we bought an AP because our biannual trip was longer this year than usual, and then discovered that I had a conference in Orlando. Since we had the AP, we only had to pay airfare and food for my whole family to come for the week, and we went for it. But no way would I have coughed up the extra dough for the tickets -- I would have gone to my conference and the rest stayed home. Next year we have a cruise booked, which we would have booked anyway. But because we have the AP, I'm considering adding on a couple of days at the parks in front or at the end.

On the one hand, there is a crowd reduction issue. But on the other hand, people who are in possession of an AP and find themselves making extra trips because they have the AP (as opposed to people who would have bought the AP all along because of proximity, vacation style, etc.) also tend to have a decent quantity of disposable cash to spend in the parks.