New BLT info - Rumors

[jamstew]

My comment was simply that there are plenty of people out here with cash to spend, regardless of their income "label". So you don't have the cash, doesn't mean others that do won't spend it. These people have a market that needs to be tapped into......Disney's gonna do just that.

I have the cash to spend. I won't be spending it for BLT, but that's just me. As someone else posted, for that amount of money, I could spend lots of nights for many years at PR or GF (and prefer both to CR).

 

[tjkraz]

Doesn't this have a negative affect in the opposite direction too? If I buy BLT at $140 per point and decide to book OKW at 7 months because, for some reason, I want to stay there I'm essentially using my $140 points at a resort where owners paid anywhere from $46 to $76 per point. It's kind of like throwing your money away.

It really defeats the purpose of the DVC system to sell BLT at $140 per point. It creates an imbalance in the point system and point cost structure. DVC is supposed to be a flexible program with variety and to pay $35 more per point for BLT to have a 4 month window for booking seems kind of silly.

If I owned BLT at $140 per point and found out someone who purchased SSR points at $85 per point got a 7 month reservation at BLT it might upset me a bit.

If BLT goes at $140 per point we may be looking at a class point system within DVC. BLT, GCV, and Hawaii maybe a premium category, SSR, OKW, AKV BCV, WLV, BWV, Vero, and Hilton Head maybe a deluxe category, and we might see the moderate and/or value resorts get DVC units in the future creating a lower class DVC category. I guess its possible.

All very valid points.

I could probably argue that the same issues already exist if we look at resales--and really have existed for 4-5 years.

Right now people are paying over $90 per point resale and $104 per point direct for 33 years of ownership at BCV. Other alternatives include:

$60-70 per point resale for 33 years at Vero or HHI
$75 per point (approx) resale for 33 years at OKW
$92-93 (approx) resale for 48 years at AKV
$96 direct for 48 years at AKV

So effectively we already have an environment where people are willing to pay a premium of 30-50% for that 11-month window at BCV--with that premium either being higher prices or reduced ownership.

If not for the booking window, why else wouldn't people be getting 15 extra years at AKV for a similar price, or paying substantially less for VB, HHI or OKW resales? Perhaps Disney has just decided that it's their turn to really cash-in on that Home resort mania.

For years many have been preaching "buy where you want to stay." While these prices may seem shocking, I suspect most who have really longed for the CR will be in the same boat as Mike, finding a way to come up with the dough. People who have dreamed of that Wishes fireworks view will ultimately come to the realization that waiting for 7 months to use other points for a MK View room isn't going to be a successful approach the vast majority of the time.

 

[gkrykewy]

Currently, top 1% of income earners pay a 39% of all income tax paid. The top 25% of income earners pay an 86% share, and the top 50% of all income tax earners pay 97% of all income taxes.

It's neat when people use numbers to tell any sort of story they want . The flip-side, obviously, is that while the top X% pay a seemingly disproportionate share of total taxes collected (per your post), individually they may pay a smaller % of their own income in taxes than a middle class family (via creative accounting, and through being taxed at the capital gains rate).

All of which is completely irrelevant to the topic at hand, which is that those prices are absolutely NUTS . I don't see how there could be that kind of point differential for a 4-month booking window UNLESS there's something fundamentally different about BLT from the other DVC resorts (what if per-night point costs were higher there for non-BLT owners, for example?).

Could be a juicy rumor planted to make the eventual $115 price look like an absolute steal

 

[Nikisha421]

Taken from another forum.......

Remember these are RUMORS and have not been confirmed with a second source as of yet.

1) With the exception of Cruise sales, all DVC sales units have missed their goals for the year. Jim Lewis is very unhappy. Many Guides believe the problem was caused by Jim Lewis' choice of Steve Harvey (I don't know this person by name) as the lead advertising focus of last year. Apparently his demographics cannot affort the DVC, despite stong interest, and many have been declined for Disney financing (almost unheard of!). And guess what? supposedly, they just renewed their 'contract' with Mr. Harvey for next year!

2) NYC sales center is gonna happen soon, and may be in Northern New Jersey versus NYC proper. The IL and NY centers have been getting the best sales incentives even though it costs much more to sell at those locations than via the telephone sales-guide system. Some animosity is developing between these sales branches.

3) A bigwig on the BLT steering committee has a serious health problem that has required long hospitalizations and has thrown all schedules out the door. Guides who were told not to vacation in June and July, are again being told to vacation immediatly or not at all.

4) So, with disappointing 2007 FY sales, October 1st (Disney's next FY) is looking out to be the sales date (back to our original prediction nearly a half a year ago....... BUT many senior agents expect sales to begin on the Member's Cruise this September. DC just doesn't know. Also, BLT has *NOT* been declared part of DVC internally yet, despite the take out restaurant reported in the Sentinal.

5) Now the bad news....... Price per point *RUMORED* originally to have been $180 per point. That is not a typo. Management feels they could have sold out at that level last year (before the credit/mortgage crunch) became known. DC feels the delay in starting sales may even extend to the election. He expects points to go for $140.00pp PLUS. I hope he is wrong!

6) This is a direct Jim Lewis quote, "...Get ready because sales will be announced one week before sales start, and DVC Owners will have only one week to purchase before BLT is offered to the general public..." Now that seems to be a confirmation of BLTs DVC status to me, but hey I wasn't at this meeting.

7) Project Crystal is the current 'code' name for DVC at the contemporary.

I am so outraged by this comment by the OP...I actually brought through Steve Harvey... I went on the DVC tour B4 Steve Harvey was signed as the DVC Administration...Second...I am apart of that demographic...and I could afford DVC...Next DVC approves anyone who has their $$$$$$$$$ upfront....Finally, I do believe the reason they signed Steve Harvey and resigned him was because Disney was HUNGRY for that DEMOGRAPHICS money...I am so times so HIGHLY DISGUSTED BY SOME OF THE BLATANT DISRESPECT ON THIS BOARD...

Yeah I can read and I know its all a RUMOR...

HAHAHA i get the JOKE...so funny and BTW...Steve Harvey is a well known actor, comedian, and syndicated talk show host...popular in my demographic.

 

[gkrykewy]

I am so outraged by this comment by the OP...I actually brought through Steve Harvey... I went on the DVC tour B4 Steve Harvey was signed as the DVC Administration...Second...I am apart of that demographic...and I could afford DVC...Next DVC approves anyone who has their $$$$$$$$$ upfront....Finally, I do believe the reason they signed Steve Harvey and resigned him was because Disney was HUNGRY for that DEMOGRAPHICS money...I am so times so HIGHLY DISGUSTED BY SOME OF THE BLATANT DISRESPECT ON THIS BOARD...

Yeah I can read and I know its all a RUMOR...

HAHAHA i get the JOKE...so funny and BTW...Steve Harvey is a well known actor, comedian, and syndicated talk show host...popular in my demographic.

I agree with you completely. I found that line obnoxious as well . "African Americans can't afford DVC" - great rumor . And frankly I wonder whether that rumor was thrown in simply to be obnoxious - how much impact does a spokesman like that have on sales of something like DVC? If they chose, say, Robin Williams, would sales really be higher? Please.

Depending on your viewpoint, one could say that most of the people who own DVC can't afford it (if they're financing at 10+%).

Remember though that the OP was "taken from another forum" - don't blame the DIS.

 

[Brian Noble]

Doesn't this have a negative affect in the opposite direction too? If I buy BLT at $140 per point and decide to book OKW at 7 months because, for some reason, I want to stay there I'm essentially using my $140 points at a resort where owners paid anywhere from $46 to $76 per point. It's kind of like throwing your money away.

I think this is exactly what happens if there is a sharp split in developer pricing between BLT "per point" and everything else---that's what I meant by the creation of "two de facto point systems." If BLT and AKV have sharply different prices per point, no one buys BLT unless they absolutely intend to stay there nearly every time. Sure, they could, but a rational person wouldn't. A large price differential would tend to attract BLT buyers who were less likely than "average" to use the 7-month window at other resorts. As Tim points out, this means less 7-month inventory at BLT for anyone else in-system.

I would be a little surprised to see DVC go that direction, because I just don't think it's possible to pull the other six WDW resorts up to that level and expect to keep selling them---either AKV's new inventory, or the ROFR'd stuff at the others. That's why, despite this rumor, my money is still on a more modest (but non-trivial) price increase, coupled with point charts at BLT with significantly higher point-per-night costs. This gives DVC a way to squeeze extra money out of folks who really want the monorail (because they will tend to buy larger packages) without introducing two definitions of "what a point is worth."

On that note: I vaguely recall that they withdrew the maximum reallocation levels for BLT. Have a new set been filed with the state/county yet? If so, that would tell us a lot.

Edited to add: the reverse is possible too---if the BLT point-per-night cost is too high, then a lot of BLT buyers with stars in their eyes will discover, in the cold light of day, that they could get a lot more vacation time out of staying at other resorts, increasing the rate of 7-month bookings outbound.

 

[Josh125]

Remember though that the OP was "taken from another forum" - don't blame the DIS.

Thank you I was also taken a back when I first read that however I have no reference for this comment, it was probably 3rd or 4th hand info to begin with then posted to the internet. So, take that along with a grain of salt just like everything else.

I'm pretty sure we won't be buying BLT, however I am very curious to see how this is all going to play out in a month or two's time. The tiered system sounds very logical, I hope it doesn't come to fruition though.

 

[fkj2]

Buying BLT seems like an attractive proposition but for me, the reality is that I'm looking for a place to sleep at night. But really, how many hours a day do you spend in the room?

When DVC originally launched, it was great because those of us who bought in early enjoyed both the benefit of time and price. Who would have thought resales could exceed the prices we paid originally even after we'd used the points for 15 years or more? Plus, the rooms were so much more than just a hotel room; the laundry facilities, the ability to reheat food or cook, the hot tubs in the larger units, the roominess. And then there's the flexibility of exchanges and utilizing other DVCs where we don't own.

I think owners have been spoiled, at least I feel that way, and owning BLT may be an extension of that perception. But, as I wrote earlier, I'm basically looking for a place to sleep at night and while I might be tempted to buy between 25-50 points just to guarantee the 11-month booking window, I'm not tempted to financially pinch myself in this economy just to say I own there.

As far as BLT being a "monorail" resort, you'd have to walk as far to the monorail as you would to the MK itself. I don't see that as a perk necessarily.

 

[Tink-n-Belle]

I don't think BLT is worth $140-$180 a point!!

I'm a very frugal person who actually bought in at the BWV for a higher price and MF then I could have gotten SSR. But to me the location of BWV was totally worth it. I can't say the same thing about the BLT. For that price I'll stay at the GF --- The MK is magical but it really needs to add on more attractions.

BCV & BWV have much more value than BLT because you are within walking distance to 2 parks and at night you have the boardwalk area after the parks close. It is so nice to come home at 9 pm to an exciting and lively boardwalk. What will the BLT have to offer? There is really nothing to do except ride the monorail.

The BLT would be super convenient when you are going to the MK, but it far away from every other park. Even though the monorail does go to Epcot its not a direct ride, you have to change monorails to get there, so I don't feel BLT offers enough to charge that kind of premium. SSR sold at a lower price because they didn't offer anything unique about it. IMHO, BCV is the most valuable resort due to the location and SAB & SSR is the least valuable due to its location and lack of an awesome pool. Even AKV offer a unique experience you can't get anywhere else which makes it valuable. The only perk of the BLT is the monorail ??? Not worth $180 IMO.

 

[Tink-n-Belle]

As far as BLT being a "monorail" resort, you'd have to walk as far to the monorail as you would to the MK itself. I don't see that as a perk necessarily.

I agree, not to mention it actually takes you 15 minutes to get there via the monorail.

 

[Mickey'sApprentice]

I am so outraged by this comment by the OP...I actually brought through Steve Harvey... I went on the DVC tour B4 Steve Harvey was signed as the DVC Administration...Second...I am apart of that demographic...and I could afford DVC...Next DVC approves anyone who has their $$$$$$$$$ upfront....Finally, I do believe the reason they signed Steve Harvey and resigned him was because Disney was HUNGRY for that DEMOGRAPHICS money...I am so times so HIGHLY DISGUSTED BY SOME OF THE BLATANT DISRESPECT ON THIS BOARD...

Yeah I can read and I know its all a RUMOR...

HAHAHA i get the JOKE...so funny and BTW...Steve Harvey is a well known actor, comedian, and syndicated talk show host...popular in my demographic.

Thank you. I was also taken aback by this comment. To say African Americans tend to be "value conscious" is good marketing and would make African Americans excellent candidates for DVC. To imply that MOST African Americans can't afford DVC is racist.

I mentioned that I didn't like this comment on the anti-Jim Lewis thread that is also on one of the DVC threads. I'm sorry that I didn't comment on this thread before now.

Someone is really trying to give Jim Lewis a bad week and was low enough to stoop to blatant racism. This comment really opened my eyes to the challenges faced by African Americans in management positions. To the person that came up with this garbage, I say...shame on you!

 

[DVC Mike]

What will the BLT have to offer? There is really nothing to do except ride the monorail.

It's much more than just monorail access. BLT offers advantages similar to BCV and BWV.

You can walk to/from the MK, much like I can walk from BCV/BWV into Epcot.

It will offer a wide range of dining opportunities, not only at CR (California Grill, Chef Mickeys, The Wave), but at those monorail-accessible resorts (Victoria & Alberts, Citricos, Narcoosees, Kona, Ohana's, etc), as well as those at the MK. This too is similar to BCV/BWV.

You can get great views (better than BWV) of the MK, Cinderella's Castle and Wishes, and Bay Lake and Seven Seas Lagoon.

There is a wide variety of water recreation options available, including hang gliding, Sea Raycers, pontoon boats, fishing, etc.

Plus, looking at the plans, BLT will offer great accomodations and will have the latest features.

 

[ADP]

All very valid points.

I could probably argue that the same issues already exist if we look at resales--and really have existed for 4-5 years.

Right now people are paying over $90 per point resale and $104 per point direct for 33 years of ownership at BCV. Other alternatives include:

$60-70 per point resale for 33 years at Vero or HHI
$75 per point (approx) resale for 33 years at OKW
$92-93 (approx) resale for 48 years at AKV
$96 direct for 48 years at AKV

So effectively we already have an environment where people are willing to pay a premium of 30-50% for that 11-month window at BCV--with that premium either being higher prices or reduced ownership.

If not for the booking window, why else wouldn't people be getting 15 extra years at AKV for a similar price, or paying substantially less for VB, HHI or OKW resales? Perhaps Disney has just decided that it's their turn to really cash-in on that Home resort mania.

For years many have been preaching "buy where you want to stay." While these prices may seem shocking, I suspect most who have really longed for the CR will be in the same boat as Mike, finding a way to come up with the dough. People who have dreamed of that Wishes fireworks view will ultimately come to the realization that waiting for 7 months to use other points for a MK View room isn't going to be a successful approach the vast majority of the time.

Thanks Tim. Who knows where this will go, but it will be interesting to see what happens with BLT pricing. As always, thanks for your perspective.

 

[HappyHappy]

It's much more than just monorail access. BLT offers advantages similar to BCV and BWV.

You can walk to/from the MK, much like I can walk from BCV/BWV into Epcot.

It will offer a wide range of dining opportunities, not only at CR (California Grill, Chef Mickeys, The Wave), but at those monorail-accessible resorts (Victoria & Alberts, Citricos, Narcoosees, Kona, Ohana's, etc), as well as those at the MK. This too is similar to BCV/BWV.

You can get great views (better than BWV) of the MK, Cinderella's Castle and Wishes, and Bay Lake and Seven Seas Lagoon.

There is a wide variety of water recreation options available, including hang gliding, Sea Raycers, pontoon boats, fishing, etc.

Plus, looking at the plans, BLT will offer great accomodations and will have the latest features.

We are interested in BLT (would be newbies) I have been reading and reading for weeks and haven't found any reference to BLT "plans" but would love to see them. Can you point me in the right direction? Thanks

 

[UConnJack]

I am so outraged by this comment by the OP...I actually brought through Steve Harvey... I went on the DVC tour B4 Steve Harvey was signed as the DVC Administration...Second...I am apart of that demographic...and I could afford DVC...Next DVC approves anyone who has their $$$$$$$$$ upfront....Finally, I do believe the reason they signed Steve Harvey and resigned him was because Disney was HUNGRY for that DEMOGRAPHICS money...I am so times so HIGHLY DISGUSTED BY SOME OF THE BLATANT DISRESPECT ON THIS BOARD...

Yeah I can read and I know its all a RUMOR...

HAHAHA i get the JOKE...so funny and BTW...Steve Harvey is a well known actor, comedian, and syndicated talk show host...popular in my demographic.

I can certainly understand why some people were offended by the statement, but from a purely business and economic standpoint there is truth in the african american community (in general) not being the best demographic to target for DVC. According to 2006 census and labor bureau statistics, the average income for a white household was $68,989, while african american household average was $45,493. In addition, white households accounted for 83% of all households reporting income in 2006, whereas african american households accounted for only 13%.

So basically the african american community overall is a much smaller demographic to target, with less buying power. Of course this doesn't mean they should be ignored, I'm sure Disney does want to tap into every demographic as far as it can. However, getting offended at the implication that the african american demographic is not as lucrative a target is misguided because there is some truth to it, especially with a luxury purchase like a timeshare. That offense is more appropriately directed at the fact that there is a large income gap for african americans.

Of course, this is just a rumour anyway, and I am sure Disney wants to tap as much of the african american demographic as possible, but I am surprised they didn't pick someone with more crossover appeal between the white and african american communities.

 

[M-I-C-K-E-Y]

This has branched out into a very interesting discussion on race, but I do have to wonder who is Steve Harvey? Is he an actor, a comic or simply someone on the radio somewhere? Perhaps he's all three, a multi-talented star that we simply haven't heard of??

 

[pycees312]

I can certainly understand why some people were offended by the statement, but from a purely business and economic standpoint there is truth in the african american community (in general) not being the best demographic to target for DVC.

So basically the african american community overall is a much smaller demographic to target, with less buying power. .

I've been really trying to not go here since this thread is about BLT even on the other board i did not comment.......
and your intitled to your opinion but i think this was moreso about the "black influence" witch is huge. If African American's began purchasing DVC then other minories and the younger generation MAY follow. DVC does not need to target white America. They have your dollar. Look at hip hop and while most older american's may not like hip hop the influence is everywhere wether you like it or not.

 

[UConnJack]

I've been really trying to not go here since this thread is about BLT even on the other board i did not comment.......
and your intitled to your opinion but i think this was moreso about the "black influence" witch is huge. If African American's began purchasing DVC then other minories and the younger generation MAY follow. DVC does not need to target white America. They have your dollar. Look at hip hop and while most older american's may not like hip hop the influence is everywhere wether you like it or not.

Although I admittedly don't like the hip hop culture, you do have a point. Although the hip hop culture comes from the African American community, it does significantly influence overall American culture, especially in the younger generation. However, before DVC expects to tap the African American demographic, and the overall hip hop culture, I think Disney first needs to get them hooked on the overall Disney brand first. I know they are trying, and they are finally introducing a black character for example (if they ever decide how they want to do The Frog Princess), but they do have a fine line to tow since the hip hop culture is not particularly seen as family friendly to a lot of people and Disney could risk turning a lot of people off if they pushed their marketing in that direction.

That said, I just don't think marketing DVC specifically to the black community is effective. Steve Harvey is certainly not offensive or anything, nor do I perceive him as the face of hip hop culture, but his appeal is mostly limited to the black community, and I don't think it has enough of an interest in Disney overall yet to generate interest in DVC. Couple that with the fact that the African American demographic is relatively small with more modest financial resources, and I don't see what is gained by this marketing effort.

 

[NedsTJ]

This has branched out into a very interesting discussion on race, but I do have to wonder who is Steve Harvey? Is he an actor, a comic or simply someone on the radio somewhere? Perhaps he's all three, a multi-talented star that we simply haven't heard of??

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Harvey

Apparently he's got a radio show in the New York area. Not sure if it's across the country or just local to NYC.

Edit: I had to look him up as well. Have heard of the name, but not at all familiar with his work (or maybe I am but just don't know it, LOL)...wonder if I fit the Steve Harvey demographic?? LOL!

 

[Nikisha421]

Although I admittedly don't like the hip hop culture, you do have a point. Although the hip hop culture comes from the African American community, it does significantly influence overall American culture, especially in the younger generation. However, before DVC expects to tap the African American demographic, and the overall hip hop culture, I think Disney first needs to get them hooked on the overall Disney brand first. I know they are trying, and they are finally introducing a black character for example (if they ever decide how they want to do The Frog Princess), but they do have a fine line to tow since the hip hop culture is not particularly seen as family friendly to a lot of people and Disney could risk turning a lot of people off if they pushed their marketing in that direction.

That said, I just don't think marketing DVC specifically to the black community is effective. Steve Harvey is certainly not offensive or anything, nor do I perceive him as the face of hip hop culture, but his appeal is mostly limited to the black community, and I don't think it has enough of an interest in Disney overall yet to generate interest in DVC. Couple that with the fact that the African American demographic is relatively small with more modest financial resources, and I don't see what is gained by this marketing effort.

AGAIN HIGHLY DISGUSTED...MAKING SUCH BROAD COMMENTS IN 2008 ARE SO SILLY...IM A PROUD MEMBER OF THE HIP HOP GENERATION...YOU DONT LIKE ME THEN SORRY FOR YOU...U SEEM TO BE WASTING A LOT OF ENERGY...STEREOTYPES ARE SO 1960S...BIGGER THAN THAT I COULD POSSIBLY BE YOUR CHILDS TEACHER...YES A HIP HOP LOVER CAN BE EDUCATED...YOUR CHILDS TEACHER... A MOTHER...AND A COLLEGE GRADUATE THREE TIMES OVER...WHICH IS MUCH MORE THAN MANY PEOPLE IN WHITE AMERICAN CAN SAY...HIP HOP DOESNT HAVE ONE LOOK...ONE STANCE...OR ONE VISION...HIP HOP IS LEGENDARY...AND DRAWS MANY PEOPLE IN NOT ONLY AFRICAN AMERICANS...SO THEREFORE LETS NOT EQUATE THE LOVE OF HIP HOP WITH BEING AFRICAN AMERICAN...SIDEBAR NOT ALL BLACKS ARE AFRICAN AMERICAN AND DONT NECESSARILY HAVE TO BE "HIP HOPPERS"...DISCUSSION ON RACE ALWAYS GETS DISTORED BC POEPLE TEND TO BRING IN OTHER IRRELEVANT ARGUMENTS...BTW AFRICAN AMERICAN AND HIP HOP ARE NOT SYNONYMOUS...SO WHY YOU EVEN BROUGHT HIP HOP INTO THIS MAKES WE LMAO....

...AND AGAIN STEVE HARVEY IS AN ACTOR, COMEDIAN, AND SYNDICATED TALK SHOW HOST...LARGE IN MY DEMOGRAPHIC....YOU SHOULD CHECK HIM OUT SOME TIME...HOWEVER HIS SHOWS ARE GENERALLY SOLD OUT....