New BLT info - Rumors

[pycees312]

IF you were able to use your points for other things besides accomodations would the 180 be worth it then????
Example park tickets, dinning plan, airfare etc..

Just curious i asked on the other board and no one answered. I'm only asking because it seems to me DVC is testing the waters with the latest timeshare trends.... and this very well may come into play at some point.

 

[CarolA]

I figure it's one of two things

1. It will go on sale for $140 with a limited time incentive of $20 to $30 off. And all of you screaming hysterially about "NO" will RACE to beat the clock and buy LOL!

2. It's NOT going to be the DVC we currently have. It's going to be an "upscale" product to compete with the Four Seasons and will not be part of the regular DVC. You might be able to "trade" in, but it won't be the same 11/7 deal we have now.

We will see....

 

[CandleontheWater]

$140 a point!!! that's too rich for my blood. Maybe DH and I could pick up a resale in a few years, but certainly not now. Although it does make me glad that we always start our vacations on Fridays or Sat- we'll get the competative booking edge for those coveted 7 month rooms

Its really too bad though, the Contemporary has always been my favorite and I'd love to "own" a piece of my favorite hotel.

 

[Brian Noble]

With regards to the Four Seasons property on the NE corner: I have a sneaking suspicion that that will operate either as a fractional or a destination club, not a timeshare. If that turns out to be the case, figure the minimum buy-in at 5-10x DVC's current $10K. There will also be whole-ownership units, and those will be well into seven figures.

In other words, that property won't at all be competition with DVC. It will be a whole 'nother ballgame.

 

[tjkraz]

If I paid $140/pt for my points, I probably wouldn't use them anywhere else because my points cost more than any of the others...

I'd rather pay $100/pt and take my chances at the 7 month window.

These two statements illustrate why this could work, and exactly the manner in which I would market it if working as a salesman. If everyone paying the premium price buys with the intention of booking at 11 months, there simply won't be anything available at 7 months. More likely there would be SOMETHING available part of the year, but the percentage of 11-month bookings will be much higher than all other resorts.

If DVC is selling concurrently with AKV--which they undeniably will be since AKV has a couple years left--it would be fairly easy to illustrate what you're getting for the much higher price.

 

[loribell]

Ok, I'll do it...CRAZY

Despite my amazement at the rumored high price, even if it is $140 a point, I'll probably still do an add-on at BLT. Go ahead, call me crazy...

Seriously there is nothing wrong with it if you can afford it. You are paying for the experience. I am sure you would rather pay less though.

 

[UConnJack]

Apparently I hit a nerve. As I said, DVC is marketed as an aspirational purchase. Aspiration is the reason a large portion of the electorate that is not statistically "rich" can be persuaded to vote against their own interests and for the interests of the wealthiest 2%.

I wouldn't attribute it to "aspiration". I would attribute it to most people having a basic understanding of fairness, and knowing that it is inherently unfair to tax someone at a higher rate simply because they are "rich" (and I am not rich). Luckily, this isn't a socialist country.......yet.

As for the rumored $140-180 per point, it would certainly price me out (not that I was planning on buying anyway). As others have suggested, I think they may try to start at a high-ish cost (probably not $180, but maybe between $140-$160), which will probably help drive AKV sales as a value purchase. When AKL gets 75% or so sold, then they will throw in the BLT discounts and bring it down to $120-$140.

 

[tjkraz]

With regards to the Four Seasons property on the NE corner: I have a sneaking suspicion that that will operate either as a fractional or a destination club, not a timeshare. If that turns out to be the case, figure the minimum buy-in at 5-10x DVC's current $10K. There will also be whole-ownership units, and those will be well into seven figures.

In other words, that property won't at all be competition with DVC. It will be a whole 'nother ballgame.

Yup. I believe they already made that distinction. The statement in the original press release was:

“single- and multi-family vacation homes and fractional ownership vacation homes.”

 

[Starr W.]

Apparently I hit a nerve. As I said, DVC is marketed as an aspirational purchase. Aspiration is the reason a large portion of the electorate that is not statistically "rich" can be persuaded to vote against their own interests and for the interests of the wealthiest 2%.

But I digress - even if one likes to think of oneself as rich, even if by any measure you are rich, DVC is not at all exclusive (or a secret, to use the DVC marketing term). So, what I said was, the customer with a serious amount of money who is looking for an exclusive experience is not prepaying for 50 years of Disney vacations. You can disagree but you have no more data than I do to back it up.

No you didn't hit a nerve, we enjoy having more room on vacation and want to be on site so we bought DVC. As for being "special" or being part of some exclusive club that didn't even come into consideration when making our buying decision. And I feel sorry for people that bought thinking that was part of the equation, because you're really just buying a Disney timeshare.

Though I think DVC might impress more of your "aspirational" folks than the Four Seasons, because most of those people are probably clueless to what FS is.

 

[BlakeNJ]

For $140 per point, I better get more than a flat screen tv and some nice furniture in my room. That prince per point better be for more than just monorail access. I'd rather have twice the points at another resort and take my chances getting in at BLT at 7 months. I'd rather have twice the points at BCV.

 

[tvwalsh]

We bought into the DVC in 1992 when The Disney Vacation Club was the name of a resort, OKW. In making our decision we knew that we would only be able to stay in the "regular" resorts at WDW if we paid to stay in them.

Later we got the right to use our points at the WDW resorts and that was super.

When the Boardwalk Villas became a part of the DVC I just thought it couldn't get any better than that but the addition of VWL and BCV proved me wrong again.

I hated to see the Disney Institute discontinued but enjoyed seeing SSR and its strikingly beautiful landscaping become a part of our DVC.

AKV presented another new and exciting option for our animal loving family (We have a tri-colored Collie, a calico cat, and a biting love bird)

Now the prospect of using my OKW points (Thats mostly all I have) at a new highrise addition to the Contemporary Resort seems like another dream come true.

I think there are lots of members like me who are excited about all the options we have ( I do miss the Grand Hotel on Mackinaw Island, though) and this little trip down memory lane tells why.

 

[NedsTJ]

Just my irrational need to own there and stay there. I want the 11-mo booking advantage, and am willing to pay for it. I want the MK view, walking to the MK, the views of Bay Lake and the Seven Seas lagoon, and monorail access. I already have enought points at BCV, BWV, VWL and AKV, so a less expensive add-on at those resorts won't interest me if BLT is announced.

I'm not saying it's the best use of my money (when I could buy more points at a less expensive resort). It's similar to why I spent 10 nights at the Grand Floridian when I could have stayed at POFQ or even just POP.

I think I agree with "CRAZY" on this one! The price/point will only determine how much I spend buying into BLT. Already have points at SSR so I can see me purchasing enough points at BLT to stay for a few nights, then switch to SSR (or the other way around as I'd like to end the vacation at BLT!). Come the 7 month window I'd check to see if I can extend the stay.

I'm willing to bet the price/point won't be that much more, maybe $120? But I do think there will be a huge difference in the points per night to stay there...wouldn't be surprised if a week's stay would cost twice as many points at BLT than at SSR.

 

[Mtnman44]

Currently, top 1% of income earners pay a 39% of all income tax paid. The top 25% of income earners pay an 86% share, and the top 50% of all income tax earners pay 97% of all income taxes.

If anything is true about current U.S. income tax policy, it is the opposite of what you suggest. Those that don't pay significant income taxes outnumber (and presumably vote) for taxes and spending paid for by the "rich".

source: http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/05in05tr.xls

Apparently I hit a nerve. As I said, DVC is marketed as an aspirational purchase. Aspiration is the reason a large portion of the electorate that is not statistically "rich" can be persuaded to vote against their own interests and for the interests of the wealthiest 2%.

 

[Sammie]

I think it's time for Jim Lewis to go!

 

[TSMIII]

I just don't see them selling BLT for $140 per point come October 1st.

This is either Tony or DC pulling our leg, or maybe DVC is just floating this rumored price of $140+ per point through the DVC community to help push AKV sales? It would certainly help them reach their sales targets for this fiscal year.

How many members would add-on at BLT at $140-$180 per point?

If it does actually happen, it would help drive up resale values.

I believe you are exactly right Mike - it looks like DVC is feeling around for "what the market will bear".

 

[TSMIII]

But does that really matter?

Let's assume that with pricing in the $110 neighborhood things would sell out in a year. Not too far-fetched since BCV was only 1/3 smaller and sold out in just over a year. Now six years later we have a lot more members (looking to add at BLT) and DVC as a whole has become more mainstream.

So a year to sell at pricing consistent with current resorts.

Would it really be so terrible (strictly from DVC's perspective) to up the price by 30% and take 2-4 years to sell everything? They would certainly make more money--the interest lost over the longer sellout period isn't going to come close to what they would make with the premium pricing.

If BLT would be as popular as some suggest at $110 per point, even the sales logistics could be a challenge. Over the year's period that it is selling they would have to significantly ramp-up their sales team. And I'm not just talking about the front-line guides but all of the backroom people who process the paperwork, handle the financing, the closings, QA, etc. That alone is not an insignificant challenge.

With identical pricing, AKV sales could come to a virtual stand-still...and that's a building that we know will be complete next September. On the other hand, AKV would benefit as the more value-priced alternative to BLT.

Now let's think about the big picture. After the CR we have DVCs at all deluxe resorts except the GF and Poly. If the CR sells out by '09 and AKV wraps-up in '10 or '11, DVC still has thirty years before some of the '42 resorts start to bounce back for new sales.

In just 20 years they will have built SEVEN resorts at Walt Disney World--two stand-alone (OKW, SSR) one hybrid (BWV) and added-on to four other deluxes (AKV, VWL, BCV, CR). With just two more undeveloped deluxes on-site, I'd say there is at least a sliver of uncertainty in DVC's future beyond the next 8-10 years if they continue to build/price/sell at the current pace. Boutique pricing certainly strikes me as one alternative to keep the unit's revenues high while slowing its growth to some degree.

A very interesting take on the situation. So if DVC were a victim of their own success as it were - more demand than supply available at WDW - there may be a couple of other ways that could help accomplish this.

For BLT they could restrict add-ons to a higher minimum...75, 100, 160 points?

Or, once AKV & BLT are sold out, they could just market any off-site properties, such as Hawaii, as the ONLY property currently available and play up the 7 month window for booking at WDW. Other timeshares have sold out resorts that are more desirable than the ones currently being offered at the full retail buy in price and the marketing thrust always makes a point of the ease of trading in to other locations. Granted WDW is the main attraction and not having a property available there to sell would definitely hurt some sales but to the uninitiated just looking to buy into the Disney system, it wouldn't matter which property was actively selling if they didn't realize the disadvantage of owning an off-site location.

 

[Golden Rose]

We just bought into AKV, and I have to say that if something had been available on the monorail, we probably would have bought on the monorail. The Contemporary is our least favorite of the monorail hotels and so DVC there would have been less tempting than either the Poly or the GF, but we still probably would have bought it if had been available.

Will we buy a Contemporary add-on if it becomes available in the next year? Maybe. Will price be the determining factor? Not really. Well, at $180, we might think twice, but in the $140 range, we'd certainly consider it very seriously. I'd be more interested in finding out what the annual dues are likely to be (will they be outrageous because of the monorail?) and what the point cost for weeknights will be (comparable to other DVC resorts, or twice that?) I'd also be interested in finding out if they have Concierge level available, and if so, if they have enough Concierge level rooms to avoid the problems with the few AKV ones. That could be a real selling point for me.

I honestly don't feel like I have anywhere near enough information to make up my mind right now, but buy in cost is not nearly as important to me as some of my other concerns.

 

[jamstew]

Well, just how do you think the "rich" get "rich"?

It's definitely not by buying timeshares I think I'll call Mike Dell tomorrow and ask if he's interested The uber rich I've known in my life (and there have been many) vacation in Europe or the Caribbean. They may have taken their kids and/or grandkids to Disney a time or two, but my guess is if they're Disney fanatics, they probably own a really nice vacation home in the area.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

My comment was simply that there are plenty of people out here with cash to spend, regardless of their income "label". So you don't have the cash, doesn't mean others that do won't spend it. These people have a market that needs to be tapped into......Disney's gonna do just that.

 

[ADP]

These two statements illustrate why this could work, and exactly the manner in which I would market it if working as a salesman. If everyone paying the premium price buys with the intention of booking at 11 months, there simply won't be anything available at 7 months. More likely there would be SOMETHING available part of the year, but the percentage of 11-month bookings will be much higher than all other resorts.

If DVC is selling concurrently with AKV--which they undeniably will be since AKV has a couple years left--it would be fairly easy to illustrate what you're getting for the much higher price.

Doesn't this have a negative affect in the opposite direction too? If I buy BLT at $140 per point and decide to book OKW at 7 months because, for some reason, I want to stay there I'm essentially using my $140 points at a resort where owners paid anywhere from $46 to $76 per point. It's kind of like throwing your money away.

It really defeats the purpose of the DVC system to sell BLT at $140 per point. It creates an imbalance in the point system and point cost structure. DVC is supposed to be a flexible program with variety and to pay $35 more per point for BLT to have a 4 month window for booking seems kind of silly.

If I owned BLT at $140 per point and found out someone who purchased SSR points at $85 per point got a 7 month reservation at BLT it might upset me a bit.

If BLT goes at $140 per point we may be looking at a class point system within DVC. BLT, GCV, and Hawaii maybe a premium category, SSR, OKW, AKV BCV, WLV, BWV, Vero, and Hilton Head maybe a deluxe category, and we might see the moderate and/or value resorts get DVC units in the future creating a lower class DVC category. I guess its possible.