New AP info I heard today!!

[TravelingJen24]

Well, I would say that we are in the clear of Disneyland becoming the next six flags or at least I would hope so.

I would say that we are in big trouble the day that Dis starts to sell gum in their parks. It's all downhill from there.

 

[Sherry E]

I have to agree with something Nunzia said - well, actually I agree with many things said by many people on this thread, but she made one point in particular that I wanted to address.

The expansions and changes to DCA will 'help' Disney from a business standpoint and may 'help' the crowd issues in some ways, but what I am envisioning happening in the beginning is more and bigger crowds in both parks. It would be nice to think that the existing mobs of people in DL will just sort of saunter over to DCA and help balance things out so that it is comfortable in both parks for everyone, but we all know that will probably not be the case. All the additions and enhancements will draw even more people into DL as well as more people to DCA, obviously. (And DCA is smaller than DL so if it gets packed in there, it will be 'felt' even more palpably.) So, in other words, things may get worse before they get better. This is my feeling on the issue. I am sure that eventually everything will settle in at a manageable level - when the economy gets better and people can take vacations elsewhere - but in the immediate future, I think the crowds will get worse before they get better.

Personally, having gone to DL since 1972, I have always expected "crowds." I have experienced all kinds of crowd levels over the years. I was always the one reminding my friends that with Disneyland comes crowds, so if we want to ride things or do things, we have to deal with crowds. In fact, I remember when the lines for rides themselves were so long and daunting back in the '80s and early '90s (for things like POTC). It is amazing to me that Disney has found a way to push people through the POTC line now so that everyone is loaded onto the boats pretty quickly, despite the intimidating queue length (like what we dealt with in December). However, even though I recall the lines being outrageous for attractions back in the old days, I do not recall nearly as much foot traffic while walking around in the main thoroughfares. There just seem to be so many more people out in the open spaces than I recall before. Yes, adding more rides will bring some of those people inside and out of the congested areas, but adding more rides will also bring more people out into the congested areas! It is going to work both ways. There is no avoiding it. I can barely stand to walk through Adventureland now because it is SUCH a mob scene - worse than ever! We could not walk easily past the RoA in December because there were so many people just clogging up the area like never before (that I recall, from my experience). And this was all before 11:00 a.m.!

Also - and this is how it all comes full circle for me - I spend less money (whether I have a Hopper or an AP) when it is super-crowded. Less money on food, less money on souvenirs. I used to be the biggest souvenir nut around. But now, if I want to go into a shop and I see that it is jam-packed with people (like in December and October), I will not go into that shop. If we happen to be eating spontaneously (without a PS) and we come upon a restaurant where the line to be seated is too long, we keep on walking. Sometimes we (or someone in our group) get so exasperated by the crowds that we just abandon the idea to eat all together for a while.

So the massive crowds (whether due to AP holders or not) that I have experienced in my last couple of DLR visits have affected the 'quality' of my visit to DLR because my mood changes, I don't go into the shops/buy the things I might normally be inclined to buy, I don't get on the rides I want to ride (my HMH-loving friend was totally turned off to the line when she saw it and so we avoided riding it a second time like we normally would) and I don't necessarily eat where I want to eat, not to mention that I can't soak in the magical atmosphere or notice the fantastic details hidden around the parks. And I have more tolerance for this stuff than my friends do because I am a bigger DLR fanatic than they are. They usually just want to give up and go home or go sit on a bench for the rest of the day and get nothing done. So I am just saying...I know I am not the only one out there having these same experiences. I am happy for Disney that they are thriving and that the business aspect of things is on the upswing, but from a visitor's standpoint, the massive crowds are worse than I have seen in previous years and they are affecting the quality of my DLR visit, so I am sure it is also this way for many other people as well.

 

[blackjackdelta]

Since all of us are consumers there is no lack for consumer perspective on this forum. I agree with you, and would add that what you are saying is said many times every day on around here. What is not said as often is that Disney needs to make a profit to continue its operation. And the more profit they make the more they will reinvest into DLR to make even more profit.

As any business, Disney needs to listen to its customers and its shareholders. But for any business the shareholders are more important. They own the company.

As previously stated, I am also a Disney shareholder and I do vote. And there is no point in owning stock if I can not make a profit and I shareholders can not make a profit they leave the company, thus NO money goes into DLR or anywhere else, staffing gets reduced, CS is not the name of the game.

I also work in a business that is very difficult to make a reasonable profit. Medicare, Medicaid, DSHS, you name it keep cutting our funding. We have over 20k patients in our practice, we write off over 1M a year in bad debts and yet we still make a profit due to good management decisions. We have a number of patients who are not happy with us no matter what we do. Less than .03 % but they still keep coming back to see us.YOU CAN NOT MAKE EVERYONE HAPPY!

If I am disatisfied I go elsewhere, I do not go back.
I was not overly happy about the crowds last August, but I am an adult and made do.(Did not have to take ATIVAN) I picked the time of the year I went(could not get off at anyother time due to business.) Family had FUN.

I think until 2012 when the new construction is finished, the crowd patterns along with the increasing number of AP's, we all have to live with it. No matter what decision is made by Disney a bunch of people are not going to me happy.

Daffy Duck once said when he saw Ali baba's treasure "Mine. Mine,Mine."

Jack

Sent from my iPhone

 

[nunzia]

What you are saying is all possible. But I think, for the most part, Disney seems to have the right people steering the ship now - especially at DLR. The crowds are a good thing because it has brought their attention to DCA's potential - hence they invest $1 billion there. That would not be happening unless Disney thought they could recoup that investment by bringing in more people.

I think most everyone on this thread is basically in agreement on these items:

1. In the short term the crowds at DLR are a good thing because they are getting Disney's attention that there is more profit potential at DLR

2. DLR needs to have more places to put people - rides, shows, parks, hotels, restaurants. Hence all the expansion plans and rumors.

3. DLR needs to be careful that their AP program does not drive away multi-day tourists likely to spend more money and/or alienate some of their customer base

4. Not all AP holders are from SoCal

5. Not all SoCal AP holders are low spenders

6. Disney would like to have more guests year round for better balance

7. It is getting harder for DLR to do long refurbs because the low season is not so low anymore

All good points well said. Maybe you could add one:
8. No One on the boards is blaming any AP holders for actually using their APs and showing up and are not upset at the individual people coming, but the situation Disney has created. (I'm also an AP holder so don't want to get interpreted wrongly)

 

[awesomebrownfamily]

As previously stated, I am also a Disney shareholder and I do vote. And there is no point in owning stock if I can not make a profit and I shareholders can not make a profit they leave the company, thus NO money goes into DLR or anywhere else, staffing gets reduced, CS is not the name of the game.

I also work in a business that is very difficult to make a reasonable profit. Medicare, Medicaid, DSHS, you name it keep cutting our funding. We have over 20k patients in our practice, we write off over 1M a year in bad debts and yet we still make a profit due to good management decisions. We have a number of patients who are not happy with us no matter what we do. Less than .03 % but they still keep coming back to see us.YOU CAN NOT MAKE EVERYONE HAPPY!

Um…actually it doesn’t quite work like that……you can determine that a particular stock within your portfolio is not longer profitable to own in terms of ongoing dividends, or that it’s simply a good time to sell in order to take profit from capital growth…..but you don’t “leave the company”, rather you sell your stock to another party interested in buying…transactions like this occur many times a day every day the exchange is open, and have little if anything to do with staffing levels etc.

Further to this customer service is certainly an excellent strategy to ensure long term profitability, particularly in a competitive market where service is an integral part of daily operation…….In fact I’d go so far as to say that in a customer centric business, like family entertainment, service along with value would be two key criteria to ongoing success.

The comparison to your industry and business model is probably not that valid as there are a whole range of different factor at play in terms of the product/service offering and client motivation.

You can’t always transplant a business model from one industry to another…and I’d say that that’s the case with health care and theme parks/family entertainment…..

As regards the volume of active annual passes and the apparent push for increased sales I’d say, at a guess, that what Disney may be doing is sacrificing some long term viability (selling more passes than they can practically service) for short term profitability ( or loss minimisation) during “difficult” economic times. It is unfortunate because it does devalue the product significantly and would also act to add pressure to achieve increased in park add on sales (merchandise, tours, vip experiences etc) in order to maintain revenue per capita…..it’s no good having a full entertainment venue is you are not generating sufficient revenue per head.

Hopefully this is a short term strategy and as conditions improve Disney will seek to rebalance in order to maintain long term viability… Disney in total, it’s not doing too badly…certainly it’s performing better than expected. However if you look at its theme parks separately, they are not actually doing that well….I believe that revenue is down by 4% (despite all the AP sales) and profitability is down by 17% (that’s a big, big number). So the push for AP sales is probably mitigating the revenue drop (i.e. it would be higher than 4% without the AP sales) but in the long term it’s likely to impact negatively on profitably….they simply won’t make that 17% back, let alone increase profitability by selling “devalued” annual admission because without significant in park or “add on” spending from those Annual pass holders there is just no real profit in them.

 

[SuzanneSLO]

[snip]Hopefully this is a short term strategy and as conditions improve Disney will seek to rebalance in order to maintain long term viability… .[snip]

I agree that we are likely to continue to see Disney "rebalancing" its AP program as it tries to find a sweet spot that maximizes profits while maximimzing customer satisfaction. From my personal experience, the recent increase in the price of Deluxe APs may be enough to keep us from renewing this year.

But there are a number of factors that influence this.
First, although we have been long time DAP holders, we really spent very few days in the park this year. That was partly because we spent 4 days in Anaheim for the D23 Expo and stayed too busy to get to DL.
Second, we will have an AP for WDW over the next year and expect to spend at least 20 days in the Parks in FL. That will go a long ways toward satisfying our Disney fix.
Third, the Costco 4 day pass, plus the Give a Day, Get a Disney Day promotion may be a cost-effective way for our next 5 planned visits through August. I do find it counter-intuitive, however, to be planning trips for summer when schools are out so that we can avoid the crowds! -- Suzanne

 

[DDhunter]

It seems like a lot of assumptions are being made about AP holders versus the average tourist.

Someone mentioned above that just based on a lot of this boards traffic, many, many traditional tourists stay off-site, eat off-site and spend little in the way of merchandise.

I am an AP holder and I spend tons of $$$ in the park. Every child's birthday has been spent there with at least a $300 bill for a special meal. We rarely leave the park without having purchased at least $50 in merchandise. We spend at least one weekend day per month in the park, always purchasing at least one meal (usually an expensive dinner). Not to mention the times we actually do stay on-site for an entire weekend. I don't even want to think about how much I spent on merchandise for Christmas this year at the park.

I would love some proof that the casual tourist who stays off-site and eats off-site (which seems to be the majority) spends tremendously more than an AP holder.

In addition, I do not think it is that crowded. Everyone is feeding into the perception that it is crowded, so if you run into a jam at the park, all of the sudden the crowds are horrible and destroying the park. It's all anyone talks about anymore so of course everyone's perception of the hideous crowds is born. I am from a very small town in a very small state and I can say I have only been to the park 1 time where I found the crowds to be overwhelming. As a rule, it is quite manageable.

 

[aussiegirls]

I just wanted to respond to Sherry's post. Sherry, I agree with what you have said. I guess my perspective is a bit different though.

I agree completely with the scenario you mentioned. Now imagine having the same scenario except that you have just spent multiple thousands of dollars just getting to DL and you know that you may never be able to come back. So really, not being able to ride the rides you want or get into the shops you want to spend money in, means that you have to miss out forever. It's not like we can necessarily just come back next week, or month or year or maybe even decade.

I think DL has created a situation where the people that really have to make a major effort (eg saving for years and travelling for days) to get to DL will reconsider a 2nd or 3rd trip because they have been made to feel somewhat like cattle being herded.

xxx

 

[blackjackdelta]

Um…actually it doesn’t quite work like that……you can determine that a particular stock within your portfolio is not longer profitable to own in terms of ongoing dividends, or that it’s simply a good time to sell in order to take profit from capital growth…..but you don’t “leave the company”, rather you sell your stock to another party interested in buying…transactions like this occur many times a day every day the exchange is open, and have little if anything to do with staffing levels etc.

Further to this customer service is certainly an excellent strategy to ensure long term profitability, particularly in a competitive market where service is an integral part of daily operation…….In fact I’d go so far as to say that in a customer centric business, like family entertainment, service along with value would be two key criteria to ongoing success.

The comparison to your industry and business model is probably not that valid as there are a whole range of different factor at play in terms of the product/service offering and client motivation.

You can’t always transplant a business model from one industry to another…and I’d say that that’s the case with health care and theme parks/family entertainment…..

As regards the volume of active annual passes and the apparent push for increased sales I’d say, at a guess, that what Disney may be doing is sacrificing some long term viability (selling more passes than they can practically service) for short term profitability ( or loss minimisation) during “difficult” economic times. It is unfortunate because it does devalue the product significantly and would also act to add pressure to achieve increased in park add on sales (merchandise, tours, vip experiences etc) in order to maintain revenue per capita…..it’s no good having a full entertainment venue is you are not generating sufficient revenue per head.

Hopefully this is a short term strategy and as conditions improve Disney will seek to rebalance in order to maintain long term viability… Disney in total, it’s not doing too badly…certainly it’s performing better than expected. However if you look at its theme parks separately, they are not actually doing that well….I believe that revenue is down by 4% (despite all the AP sales) and profitability is down by 17% (that’s a big, big number). So the push for AP sales is probably mitigating the revenue drop (i.e. it would be higher than 4% without the AP sales) but in the long term it’s likely to impact negatively on profitably….they simply won’t make that 17% back, let alone increase profitability by selling “devalued” annual admission because without significant in park or “add on” spending from those Annual pass holders there is just no real profit in them.

First I am not that cool to have a "portfolio" and do not purchase the stocks to make short term gains. I do not watch the stocks go up and down depending on what day. I have purchased Disney shares since 67, (now 10,000 shares because I do not jump when others think the sky is falling.)along with Microsoft, Oracle, and Yahoo when they went public. That is it. I do not intend to sell unless I see disaster rolling around. I have just wanted to have ownership in these companies. In Disneys case, I wanted to be part of the family.

I was not suggesting that stock has anything to do with staffing levels, but staffing patterns are predefined prior to any day week or sometimes year are not altered just because more folks show up and the lines get longer.

I do look at the parks separately! Which one is currently the worst performer???People need to sit back and look at the long term not the short, but my vacation is in the near term and I am concerned, that is what I perceive when the crowd levels change, the refurbs take place, etc. Everything is in the now and people just can not understand why?

Your response was very interesting, thank you.

Jack

PS: It is not whether Disney is loosing money, it is whether they are making as much as predicted in their budgets.

 

[blackjackdelta]

I just wanted to respond to Sherry's post. Sherry, I agree with what you have said. I guess my perspective is a bit different though.

I agree completely with the scenario you mentioned. Now imagine having the same scenario except that you have just spent multiple thousands of dollars just getting to DL and you know that you may never be able to come back. So really, not being able to ride the rides you want or get into the shops you want to spend money in, means that you have to miss out forever. It's not like we can necessarily just come back next week, or month or year or maybe even decade.

I think DL has created a situation where the people that really have to make a major effort (eg saving for years and travelling for days) to get to DL will reconsider a 2nd or 3rd trip because they have been made to feel somewhat like cattle being herded.

xxx

If you have the availability to come from OZ at virtually any time, summer(our summer that is) is the best time. If you look for additional stuff, Christmas etc, then that is a different matter. The reason we always do summer, everything is going and you learn to research and live with the circumstances.

The best and I love OZ,

Jack

 

[Sherry E]

In addition, I do not think it is that crowded. Everyone is feeding into the perception that it is crowded, so if you run into a jam at the park, all of the sudden the crowds are horrible and destroying the park. It's all anyone talks about anymore so of course everyone's perception of the hideous crowds is born. I am from a very small town in a very small state and I can say I have only been to the park 1 time where I found the crowds to be overwhelming. As a rule, it is quite manageable.

It is not only a "perception" of hideous crowds, though. Numbers, facts and figures have come out and shown that the crowds have been steadily rising in the last year or two, partially due to the huge influx of AP holders. There is no getting around the facts and statistics. I believe it was written somewhere just in the last week (maybe it was in Al Lutz's column?) that this past holiday season was the busiest one in the park(s) in a decade. Also, many, many other people on this board have reported encountering really bad crowds at certain times where there used to not be really bad crowds.

So if it is only a "perception" of hideous crowds, then an awful lot of folks are perceiving it that way. But the facts and figures back up the perceptions. I have no reason to say the crowds were unmanageable if they were really manageable. I have been there enough times since 1972 when the crowds were fine to deal with. In fact, when I went to DLR on the weekend right before Christmas in 2008 and in 2007, I found the crowds to be "manageable" enough. But when I went back on the exact same weekend in 2009, the crowds were hideous!! I have not seen a line for POTC so long since the early, early '90s! The crowds were bad all over DL, wherever we went. There was not one area that was spared, and the wall of people surrounding IASW Holiday was so impenetrable that all four people in my group looked at it and said, "Eh...we don't need to go on it again, do we?" (And we love that ride!) It was worse than the 2 previous years. I am telling you, the crowds all over DL were really bad. The park reached capacity very early on in the day, so that should tell you they were bad.

I just wanted to respond to Sherry's post. Sherry, I agree with what you have said. I guess my perspective is a bit different though.

I agree completely with the scenario you mentioned. Now imagine having the same scenario except that you have just spent multiple thousands of dollars just getting to DL and you know that you may never be able to come back. So really, not being able to ride the rides you want or get into the shops you want to spend money in, means that you have to miss out forever. It's not like we can necessarily just come back next week, or month or year or maybe even decade.

I think DL has created a situation where the people that really have to make a major effort (eg saving for years and travelling for days) to get to DL will reconsider a 2nd or 3rd trip because they have been made to feel somewhat like cattle being herded.

xxx

Yes, you are right! I hadn't even thought of that international visitor factor. For you and so many others from other countries, you may not get the chance to come back to DLR or the States and so you sort of have to either suffer through the crowds to eat where you want or shop where you want despite feeling like herded cattle, or, as you said, reconsider another trip to do whatever you didn't get to do the first time around, and it may not be that easy to do that.

 

[awesomebrownfamily]

First I am not that cool to have a "portfolio" and do not purchase the stocks to make short term gains.(snip)
I was not suggesting that stock has anything to do with staffing levels, (snip)
I do look at the parks separately! Which one is currently the worst performer???(Snip)
PS: It is not whether Disney is loosing money, it is whether they are making as much as predicted in their budgets.

If you have investments then you have a portfolio…so there you go, you’re cooler than you thought…..

When you said “if I can not make a profit and I shareholders can not make a profit they leave the company, thus NO money goes into DLR or anywhere else, staffing gets reduced, CS is not the name of the game.”

You weren’t suggesting that if shareholders sell their shares (“leave the company”) that staffing gets reduced….? Because that is what you wrote…

On the loosing money point….if a business previously made x million profit over the course of a year, and then over the course of the next year made 17% less than x million profit then they have lost money, 17% of x million in fact. Are they still profitable, yes…..but as profitable as they should/could be, no.

In relation to the AP holder not being as profitable as the single day customers it seems fairly likely that that would be the case…It’s certainly true in other such offerings that I’ve looked at. No doubt some AP holders would be “big spenders” in park but I’d submit that these are the exception rather than the rule.

If you have a single day ticket holder they generate $72 revenue (not profit, just revenue)to get into the park, while a Socal select pass holder who visits on each day they are eligible to potentially offers the park the equivalent of $0.99 revenue per visit…how much profit will the park make from each of this looking at admission alone? Possibly $0 from either…depending on operational costs, but they are $71 dollars closer to a profit from the single day admission….and the socal select customer has to spend $71 dollars on “in park” items just to get to the same level of revenue offering as the single day ticket holder….

Now the above is an extreme example as this assumes the socal select ap holder visits 170 days a year….lets assume they only visit once a week….why then the figure jumps up to a whopping $3.25 revenue per visit, or maybe they only come once per month which works out to about $14 per visit….hey now they only have to spend an average of $58 per visit on hot dogs, fries and lithographs…of course the single day ticket holder is probably spending exactly the same (if not more) per head, per visit….so all things considered there is likely to be more profit from single day/short term ticket holders that low cost ap holders….I think this is borne out in part by numerous AP price increases, it’s likely that the parks are discovering the obvious…that they are not making enough per head, per visit at currently levels..

The other consideration here is around operational costs per head vs. spending per head per visit. In the long term it would actually be in the Parks best interest to have less guests with a higher spend per head…..the more people you have in the park the higher the duty cycle you have to run your equipment at…now if everyone if paying full tote odds to use the facilities and is spending up big then all is golden…you can run your equipment full tilt and make a handsome profit.

However if you have a large portion of your customer base accessing your services at a reduced rate, but still requiring you to run your equipment at full or high capacity then things don’t look so rosy in the long term. You are still running your attractions at a high duty cycle, which correspondingly high operational costs but with lower revenue total…..

As for which park is doing the worst with regards to revenue & profit….I can’t say, as I do not currently have access to a detailed financial breakdown of the Disney corp. I can say that overall the parks are doing better than the movies division, who are performing very badly indeed….

 

[drag n' fly]

I just wanted to respond to Sherry's post. Sherry, I agree with what you have said. I guess my perspective is a bit different though.

I agree completely with the scenario you mentioned. Now imagine having the same scenario except that you have just spent multiple thousands of dollars just getting to DL and you know that you may never be able to come back. So really, not being able to ride the rides you want or get into the shops you want to spend money in, means that you have to miss out forever. It's not like we can necessarily just come back next week, or month or year or maybe even decade.

I think DL has created a situation where the people that really have to make a major effort (eg saving for years and travelling for days) to get to DL will reconsider a 2nd or 3rd trip because they have been made to feel somewhat like cattle being herded.

xxx

Thanks for addressing this. Disney created this monster and it has become another version of be careful what you wish for.

When one does not have the option to make it up another day or weekend it becomes a very disappointing park experience for international visitors. It requires months of planning and thousands of dollars. If it was not for the information I got on these boards I would have never ever stepped foot in WDW ever again and I am now able to better optimize my Disneyland vacations because of the Dis

 

[blackjackdelta]

If you have investments then you have a portfolio…so there you go, you’re cooler than you thought…..

When you said “if I can not make a profit and I shareholders can not make a profit they leave the company, thus NO money goes into DLR or anywhere else, staffing gets reduced, CS is not the name of the game.”

You weren’t suggesting that if shareholders sell their shares (“leave the company”) that staffing gets reduced….? Because that is what you wrote…

On the loosing money point….if a business previously made x million profit over the course of a year, and then over the course of the next year made 17% less than x million profit then they have lost money, 17% of x million in fact. Are they still profitable, yes…..but as profitable as they should/could be, no.

In relation to the AP holder not being as profitable as the single day customers it seems fairly likely that that would be the case…It’s certainly true in other such offerings that I’ve looked at. No doubt some AP holders would be “big spenders” in park but I’d submit that these are the exception rather than the rule.

If you have a single day ticket holder they generate $72 revenue (not profit, just revenue)to get into the park, while a Socal select pass holder who visits on each day they are eligible to potentially offers the park the equivalent of $0.99 revenue per visit…how much profit will the park make from each of this looking at admission alone? Possibly $0 from either…depending on operational costs, but they are $71 dollars closer to a profit from the single day admission….and the socal select customer has to spend $71 dollars on “in park” items just to get to the same level of revenue offering as the single day ticket holder….

Now the above is an extreme example as this assumes the socal select ap holder visits 170 days a year….lets assume they only visit once a week….why then the figure jumps up to a whopping $3.25 revenue per visit, or maybe they only come once per month which works out to about $14 per visit….hey now they only have to spend an average of $58 per visit on hot dogs, fries and lithographs…of course the single day ticket holder is probably spending exactly the same (if not more) per head, per visit….so all things considered there is likely to be more profit from single day/short term ticket holders that low cost ap holders….I think this is borne out in part by numerous AP price increases, it’s likely that the parks are discovering the obvious…that they are not making enough per head, per visit at currently levels..

The other consideration here is around operational costs per head vs. spending per head per visit. In the long term it would actually be in the Parks best interest to have less guests with a higher spend per head…..the more people you have in the park the higher the duty cycle you have to run your equipment at…now if everyone if paying full tote odds to use the facilities and is spending up big then all is golden…you can run your equipment full tilt and make a handsome profit.

However if you have a large portion of your customer base accessing your services at a reduced rate, but still requiring you to run your equipment at full or high capacity then things don’t look so rosy in the long term. You are still running your attractions at a high duty cycle, which correspondingly high operational costs but with lower revenue total…..

As for which park is doing the worst with regards to revenue & profit….I can’t say, as I do not currently have access to a detailed financial breakdown of the Disney corp. I can say that overall the parks are doing better than the movies division, who are performing very badly indeed….

We could debate this forever and have gone far off topic. I do not manage Disney and I think you probably do not. But if you want you can PM with your "portofolio" and I would be glad to look at your profit margin for the last 5 years.

Good luck,

Jack

 

[awesomebrownfamily]

We could debate this forever and have gone far off topic. I do not manage Disney and I think you probably do not. But if you want you can PM with your "portofolio" and I would be glad to look at your profit margin for the last 5 years.

Good luck,

Jack

You’re quite correct in your assumption that I don’t manage Disney…my existing business commitments keep me busy enough…..although I believe that I’m reasonably well qualified to comment on the general principals at play and I think I’m entitled to put my two cents worth into a discussion forum along with everyone else…........even if they don’t line up with yours and as you say we could debate this forever….

Actually isn’t that kind of the point of a discussion (or discussion forum, come to that) to enable the exchange of views and information?

In any case my comments weren’t really for your exclusive consumption, but the discussion in general…..Sorry if my comments caused any bunching (of underpants) to occur… I’ll try refrain from addressing or quoting any of your posts in future though just to be on the safe side

 

[Albort]

My question is what makes you think ride operation isnt going at 100%?

There is always a line to always created to make rides go at high operation. you must factor in all the ride closures that will force guest to other rides.

And you be surprised how Disney's operation runs. Its different than you think...

 

[Eeee-va]

i think they wont limit the # of APs but rather try to discourage ppl from buying the top 2 tier APs.

If that is true, then I think it would be even more important to go when those Southern California APs are blocked out. (And if that's the case, then that seems to kind of imply that they'd rather out-of-towners didn't buy APs? )

The stereotypes that so many here on DIS have against AP holders is very eye-opening. I think it's also important to realize MANY AP holders are not locals. Those are not interchangeable words.

I hope I don't have any negative stereotypes about AP-holders? I'm sorry if I hurt anyone's feelings. I was just saying that Disney doesn't get gate money when AP-holders visit the park after their initial pre-payment for admission. In-park spending is another matter and I actually wouldn't be shocked if AP-holders actually spend as much or more than tourists per visit (minus admission, as AP-holders usually get in the park more cheaply per visit, or else they'd just buy hoppers all the time).

I do wince every time a certain prominent columnist on another site acts as if all 1,000,000 AP-holders are locals to Southern California, since I'm a walking exception myself and I know I'm not the only one.

I think Fastpass contributes quite a bit to crowding in walkways, which may be one reason that some of our newer, popular rides don't have FPs while WDW's TSMM (for example) does. People waiting in queues aren't clogging walkways.

 

[sonnyjane]

I was just saying that Disney doesn't get gate money when AP-holders visit the park after their initial pre-payment for admission. In-park spending is another matter and I actually wouldn't be shocked if AP-holders actually spend as much or more than tourists per visit (minus admission, as AP-holders usually get in the park more cheaply per visit, or else they'd just buy hoppers all the time).

I live in SoCal, but chose to get a Premium pass instead of a SoCal pass for several reasons, including deeper discounts, parking, and no block-out dates. I purchased my pass in November, so I still have to make at least four more visits before the pass even pays for itself, so while I understand the economics behind the "no money after the initial payment" statement, in MY mind, Disney still "owes" me at least four more trips that I have paid for or else, like you said, I would have just bought regular tickets! That's why I would be upset if they started denying AP members access, but, as I already stated a few other times in the thread, I still think it's just a rumor.

 

[awesomebrownfamily]

My question is what makes you think ride operation isnt going at 100%?

There is always a line to always created to make rides go at high operation. you must factor in all the ride closures that will force guest to other rides.

And you be surprised how Disney's operation runs. Its different than you think...

It’s a good question….I assume that Disney park operate much like parks the world over in relation to the way in which they manage their attraction duty cycles….they do what they have to in order to satisfy demand, while trying not to sacrifice commercial viability and profit realisation.

Take the Monorail for example….as I understand it they have 3 complete trains that can be run at the same time…however if they would likely only run all 3 if there was sufficient demand projected. If projections indicated that they could get away with running 1 train rather than 3 while still maintaining a manageable wait time then that’s what they would do……because it’s cheaper, they don’t need as many staff on if they are only running one train and they are not incurring “wear & tear” on the other two trains…less cost, more potential for profit. I would imagine that it would be the same on pretty much the same one any of the attractions where they able to vary the number of ride vehicles in operation….of course the saving varies dependant upon the nature/amount of the “wear” the attraction suffers from each cycle and the potential for staff reductions…

The general principal is to match the number of cycles the volume of patrons where ever possible….I’m not just referring to the “off season” or what ever it’s called but year round...matching capacity to demand present a challenge to profit however when the demand comes from patrons who offer a low volume of revenue per head…..

 

[HydroGuy]

I do wince every time a certain prominent columnist on another site acts as if all 1,000,000 AP-holders are locals to Southern California, since I'm a walking exception myself and I know I'm not the only one.

In Al's defense...

I have never seen him say "all AP holders". I just re-read his articles for 2009 and what he frequently says is "the average AP holder".

Further, much of his reporting reflects the thinking going on inside Disney and not his own conjecture. Disney's thinking is backed by hard numbers of revenue, parking, daily attendance numbers, etc. Al is an editorialist which means he does interpret things and give opinions. However, I think the facts about the AP holders are pretty well established.

That said, it does create a stereotype which we have to be careful about. As Dreams said she spends more money as an AP holder than she did before. I am sure there are others like her.

I think it also depends on one's position along life's curve. When I was younger I had less money so we always did Disney cheap. Now I am ...errrrr... not as young and I have more income. So now we eat at the Blue Bayou more and in general eat more at the parks and buy nicer things for gifts.

It is my sense a lot of the SoCal AP holders are younger teens and 20-somethings with more available time than available money. No problem, just the way things work. But not all SoCal AP holders fit that profile.