Marathon Weekend Weather

[marathonmommy]

Weather Channel and Intellicast are reacting to a possible front arriving on Saturday now while Accuweather moved the front up a day also to Friday.

The three forecasts are aligning. While Weather and Intellicast are off the same model Accuweather is not far off. As a note all days the wind is out of the NW for all forecasts. I only mention wind when above 10 MPH in the forecast. You can see that that Accuweather has wind on all three mornings due to the drop in Feel Real Temps.


Weather Channel
5k Start – 45F – Hi 67F - Wind turns NW
Half Start – 52F -- Hi 69F – 60% Chance Showers (NW Wind)
Full Start - 45F – Hi 66F – Sun NW Wind

Accuweather
5k Start 48F - Feel Real 41F – Hi 62F (Rain) – front moves up a day
Half Start 37F - Feel Real 26F - - Hi 59F
Full Start 39F - Feel Real 31F -- Hi 59F

Intellicast
5k Start – 46F – Hi 66F
Half Start – 52F - Hi 68F - 60% chance of showers – Wind NW
Full Start – 47F – Hi 65F

As a statistical point the weather service averages are low 50F and hi 71F. Averages since I have been attending (1999) Low 48 and Hi 72

I much prefer the 52F start for the half than the 37F! No wind, please!

 

[MaryJ]

Weather Channel and Intellicast are reacting to a possible front arriving on Saturday now while Accuweather moved the front up a day also to Friday.

The three forecasts are aligning. While Weather and Intellicast are off the same model Accuweather is not far off. As a note all days the wind is out of the NW for all forecasts. I only mention wind when above 10 MPH in the forecast. You can see that that Accuweather has wind on all three mornings due to the drop in Feel Real Temps.


Weather Channel
5k Start – 45F – Hi 67F - Wind turns NW
Half Start – 52F -- Hi 69F – 60% Chance Showers (NW Wind)
Full Start - 45F – Hi 66F – Sun NW Wind

Accuweather
5k Start 48F - Feel Real 41F – Hi 62F (Rain) – front moves up a day
Half Start 37F - Feel Real 26F - - Hi 59F
Full Start 39F - Feel Real 31F -- Hi 59F

Intellicast
5k Start – 46F – Hi 66F
Half Start – 52F - Hi 68F - 60% chance of showers – Wind NW
Full Start – 47F – Hi 65F

As a statistical point the weather service averages are low 50F and hi 71F. Averages since I have been attending (1999) Low 48 and Hi 72

It really baffles me how different these forecasts can be! I asked my Bible Study group to pray for no rain last night!

 

[Ronda93]

Come on Accuweather! I'll take a 37, dry with no wind please. Can I have four hours of restful sleep as an appetizer?

Ronda/half - going to buy a poncho

 

[MaryJ]

Weather Channel and Intellicast are reacting to a possible front arriving on Saturday now while Accuweather moved the front up a day also to Friday.

The three forecasts are aligning. While Weather and Intellicast are off the same model Accuweather is not far off. As a note all days the wind is out of the NW for all forecasts. I only mention wind when above 10 MPH in the forecast. You can see that that Accuweather has wind on all three mornings due to the drop in Feel Real Temps.


Weather Channel
5k Start – 45F – Hi 67F - Wind turns NW
Half Start – 52F -- Hi 69F – 60% Chance Showers (NW Wind)
Full Start - 45F – Hi 66F – Sun NW Wind

Accuweather
5k Start 48F - Feel Real 41F – Hi 62F (Rain) – front moves up a day
Half Start 37F - Feel Real 26F - - Hi 59F
Full Start 39F - Feel Real 31F -- Hi 59F

Intellicast
5k Start – 46F – Hi 66F
Half Start – 52F - Hi 68F - 60% chance of showers – Wind NW
Full Start – 47F – Hi 65F

As a statistical point the weather service averages are low 50F and hi 71F. Averages since I have been attending (1999) Low 48 and Hi 72

It really baffles me how different these forecasts can be! I asked my Bible Study group to pray for no rain last night!

 

[cewait]

It really baffles me how different these forecasts can be! I asked my Bible Study group to pray for no rain last night!

But wouldn't the rain help diminish the fire threat? We may be outnumbered by the Central Floridians who have a risk of damage. Hopefully it will be answered for the hours of the event!

Brings up good point that we have not talked about. I the early part of the '00 decade (sounds hard to believe) we had a couple years one in particular with lots of smoke in the area. While I didn't really notice a performance issue there were a lot of folks who were worried.


As far as the differences, there are numerous weather models used to predict climate activities. What you are seeing are little differences in observations today creating swings ten days out. Each weather service uses their own proprietary model that looks are every other model out there and creates a prediction. The proprietary model weights each model based on several criteria as it creates its forecast. That is the reason the Accuweather model is jumping warmer then cooler every other day. Weather and Intellicast look to be using the same model for their 10 day forecast. Hope this makes a little more sense.

 

[Kirsty-Leigh]

Good point Charles we could really do with some rain in fl, we still aren't allowed to wash our cars or sprinkle our lawns and a brush fire in the area would not be good! But I don't want to run in the rain either! Now we are just getting picky!

These warmer temps are sounding better to me, if it could be 75 with a light breeze and a little humidity I'll be good!

Anything lower than 65 and my thin fl blood starts to freeze!

Thanks for the updates Charles! It gives me something to obsess over

kirsty

 

[dislvr74]

Weather.com just dropped the chance of rain for the half from 60% to 10%.

 

[Sandy321]

It really baffles me how different these forecasts can be! I asked my Bible Study group to pray for no rain last night!

I put my order in - PTL - I believe!!
(and I'm ok with rain after noon on Saturday - and late Sunday! )

 

[Duanerice]

Raining here in SW Florida today. We do really need it so it is a good thing. One of those rainy dark days - nice to stay in. I did get my running in today though as the sun was out earlier.

enjoy,
Duane

 

[Sarah_Rose]

That's it, I'm going to buy another pair of shoes today. I'm doing the Goofy + the 5K and I just can't deal with the idea of rain on any of the race days and not having a fresh pair of shoes for each day. My newest pair of shoes (and the pair I plan to wear for the full) have less than 100 miles on them, but it's not like I won't be using another pair of shoes eventually, anyway.

*sigh* I'm only bringing a carry-on, so I have no idea how I'm going to fit 3 pairs of running shoes in with all my other stuff.

 

[ultramickeymouse]

Here are some new forecasts:

Accuweather.com

Friday, Jan 8
An a.m. shower; cloudy, windy
Low: 34 °F
High: 54 °F

Saturday, Jan 9
Sunny intervals
Low: 37 °F
High: 55 °F

Sunday, Jan 10

Mostly sunny
Low: 43 °F
High: 59 °F

Weather.com

Fri
Jan 08 Showers 62°/47° 40 %

Sat
Jan 09 Showers 64°/45° 60 %

Sun
Jan 10 Mostly Sunny 67°/49° 10 %

National Weather Service

Friday: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 54. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

 

[Hockeychic]

UUUGGHHH I can live with the temps I just don't want the rain. Please Mother Nature...NO RAIN

 

[cewait]

Forcecast are dropping and remaining wet; though wet is now described as showers. The three forecasts continue to align. I added the National Weather Service 7 day forecast to the page along with their discussion.

NWS
5k Start – Upper 30’s – Hi mid 50’s -
Half Start –
Full Start –

NWS Discussion
..unseasonably cold conditions expected from this weekend through
next week...

Sun-Wed...broad eastern U.S. Longwave trough becomes reinforced by
several shortwave troughs digging deep into the southeast states Mon-Wed.
Prolonged cold spell will last through the period with maximum temperatures
generally in the 50s and mins in the upper 20s/near 30 (interior) to
lower 30s (east)... except some middle 30s along coast from the cape
South. Strong surface high builds southward along MS river basin
keeping light northwest flow through the period. Ridge axis penetrates down
the peninsula Wednesday...possibly setting up the best raditional cooling
morning of this event. Will likely require freeze watches/warnings
for large parts of central Florida each night through middle week.
Specific details of individual nights mins and duration below
freezing will be provided a day in advance.

Thu-Fri...temperatures briefly modify as a weak return flow sets up ahead
of approaching frontal boundary. Period of low chance probability of precipitation occurs
late Thursday through daytime Friday as front drops down the
peninsula. Cold/dry advection commences once again later Friday.

Weather Channel
5k Start – 46F – Hi 59F – 40% chance during day - NW Wind
Half Start – 46F -- Hi 62F – 60% Chance Showers (NW Wind)
Full Start - 45F – Hi 65F – - 60% scattered shwrs through night - NW Wind

Accuweather -
5k Start 38F - Feel Real 22F – Hi 54F (chance of shwr) –
Half Start 34F - Feel Real 25F - - Hi 55F
Full Start 37F - Feel Real 28F -- Hi 59F

Intellicast
5k Start – 45F – Hi 59F - 60% chance of showers – Wind NW
Half Start – 47F - Hi 60F - 60% chance of showers – Wind NW
Full Start – 45F – Hi 65F

As a statistical point the weather service averages are low 50F and hi 71F. Averages since I have been attending (1999) Low 48 and Hi 72

 

[MaryJ]

I put my order in - PTL - I believe!!
(and I'm ok with rain after noon on Saturday - and late Sunday! )

I agree with this! We were in WDW in 2001 when the drought was in full swing. They had turned off most of the fountains to conserve water. I wouldn't want things to get that bad again!

 

[BrianD]

One thing that seems more and more likey is that we are shaping up for some fairly chilly mornings for the races. But considering I'm about to go run in 22 degress with a 20 mph wind, those Orlando temps don't look too bad.

I guess it's still wait and see on the rain.

Thanks guys for the updates!

 

[ultramickeymouse]

One thing that seems more and more likey is that we are shaping up for some fairly chilly mornings for the races. But considering I'm about to go run in 22 degress with a 20 mph wind, those Orlando temps don't look too bad.

I guess it's still wait and see on the rain.

Thanks guys for the updates!

The hard part of the cold mornings is just sitting around for 2 hrs in it before you start running. Most come out of house and go run. We don't practice standing/sitting in it doing nothing.

 

[corinnak]

So the question is, how does this change everyone's packing lists? I know I'm planning on bringing a dollar store disposable poncho to wait around in beforehand. I'm also going to bring my gore-tex running shoes and yellow sunglasses as well as regular sun glasses. And a jacket, for sure. Ugh. Please, let it rain in the afternoons and be dry in the mornings. Please. Please. Please.

 

[cewait]

So the question is, how does this change everyone's packing lists? I know I'm planning on bringing a dollar store disposable poncho to wait around in beforehand. I'm also going to bring my gore-tex running shoes and yellow sunglasses as well as regular sun glasses. And a jacket, for sure. Ugh. Please, let it rain in the afternoons and be dry in the mornings. Please. Please. Please.

Seriously my packing list remains unchanged. I always carry enough for a 30 through 80F run.

 

[ultramickeymouse]

Seriously my packing list remains unchanged. I always carry enough for a 30 through 80F run.

As Charles mentions, you should be prepared for all weather. It can change overnight and many of us will arrive Weds/Thurs. Lots can change from the time we get there and race morning.

 

[Ronda93]

I don't see an hour-by-hour at weather.com, but they've dropped precip chance for Saturday to 30%.