Marathon Weekend Weather - Version 2012

[cewait]

OK, OK I know that a 15 day forecast can be a little more than the weather guru wetting his finger, point it up and then speaking. I am not a meteorologist but in addition to coaching have a real job that uses climatological modeling. In real simple terms, when you see a 15 day forecast, more than likely what you are seeing is a model that consolidates data from 15 or so other models. Most of those other models start with the basic historical averages.

The actual observations as well as the models for a while have been following the typical warmer la nina weather pattern. Interestingly the weather pattern seems to have settled in on a normal to slightly warmer than normal pattern so far this winter.
The Orange county area has seen lows 5-10F warmer than normal for most of December with highs 5-7F warmer. Starting a marathon at 62F is not good for most folks. It’s great while in the staging area, but once out of course, ugh. However, starting this weekend, along the Gulf Coast and into the Southeast US we are beginning to see a series of fast arriving pulse type fronts…. Expect anything this far out.

Now the Friday morning of the weekend is within the 15 day window.

So here goes ROUND 1

Accuweather
5k Start 44F
Half Start – N/A
Full Start – N/A


Norms (NWS)
50-52F low (race start)
70-72F High

More to come as the 15 day forecast starts to pick up the remainder of Marathon Weekend.

 

[jmasgat]

Thank you, oh weathermaster. One thing I learned from 2010--it does not pay to stress too much about weather. I can honestly say I don't really care what the race temp is. Now for the rest of the time I am there...bring on the sun, and anything above 60F.

Maura

 

[papaof3]

Keep the posts coming CW. We can't wait whatever the weather. Right on with your explaination. My thoughts are that the la nina will continue to throw the jetstream further to the north than normal. Lack of snowpack as well across much of the central and northeastern USA. A much greater chance for above normal temperatures. NOAA monthly climate outlook for january confirms this, not exactly for Florida, but the southeast. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off14_temp.gif

 

[Tiger Lily 03]

Thank you, oh weathermaster. One thing I learned from 2010--it does not pay to stress too much about weather. I can honestly say I don't really care what the race temp is. Now for the rest of the time I am there...bring on the sun, and anything above 60F.

Maura

I love your attitude!

 

[goofyinohio]

Thank you, oh weathermaster. One thing I learned from 2010--it does not pay to stress too much about weather. I can honestly say I don't really care what the race temp is. Now for the rest of the time I am there...bring on the sun, and anything above 60F.

Maura

I only ask for no precipitation on Race mornings. I'll deal with the temps whatever they may be!

 

[cewait]

Talking about absurdities of forecasts. Or is it. Seems like the W4Y forecast is looking for a front to push through on Thursday pre-race. The only reason for keeping an eye on the forecast is that their predominate model is suggesting the same front clears Houston a day earlier. While not a 100% predictor, especially in La Nina years, we usually see Orlando weather a couple days before Orlando. Though I would suggest that even my personal model is flawed this year as only one cool blast has hit the central FL area this season. That would mean that both of these forecasts are not following what is actually occurring this year.

All this really shows at this point is that we need to plan on bringing clothing for weather ranging from the 30’s through the 70’s. Note, it’s the same that I would bring and have brought each and every year.


Accuweather
5k Start - 46F; Hi - 72F
Half Start – 47F
Full Start – N/A

Weatherforyou
5k Start – 33F
Half Start – N/A
Full Start – N/A

Norms (NWS)
50-52F low (race start)
70-72F High

More to come as the 15 day forecast starts to pick up the remainder of Marathon Weekend

 

[Big Vic]

I only ask for no precipitation on Race mornings. I'll deal with the temps whatever they may be!

I'm with you.

 

[marathonmommy]

I'm NOT against NOT freezing at the start . . . bring it on (as long as it's not like the 2010 half - snow, sleet, rain, ick.)

 

[cewait]

First look at Marathon Morning. Just in case you are wondering why only a low or start temp is listed as a day is started, the low for the last day listed on the forecast is actually for the night of that day, or the morning of the following day. So a Saturday low in Accuweather is really the Sunday morning temperature



Accuweather
5k Start - 50F; Hi - 71F
Half Start – 54F; Hi – 77F
Full Start – 49F

Weatherforyou
5k Start – 43F; Hi – 64F
Half Start – 41F
Full Start – N/A

Norms (NWS)
50-52F low (race start)
70-72F High

 

[J3nn78]

I am liking the Accuweather forecast for the half start.

 

[cewait]

Hopefully not much warmer......

A 54F start means a near 60F end. Worse for the full with a mid 60F finish.

Regardless, I think this year will be just a little warmer than normal

 

[buckeyecinderella]

I only ask for no precipitation on Race mornings. I'll deal with the temps whatever they may be!

I certainly agree! I have learned to run in different temperatures but not in precipitation!

Thank you for the weather forecast, Coach!

 

[cewait]

I certainly agree! I have learned to run in different temperatures but not in precipitation!

Thank you for the weather forecast, Coach!

If it gets into the mid 70's I may hope for a little rain.


OK Just kidding. Though I really do not mind running in the rain. In a 'normal' year I will make many wet runs. If if looks like wet, make sure to have a billed hat to keep the rain from hitting your face and then focus on following footsteps in front of you. Avoid obvious puddles. In the parks understand that there are no easy non-puddled paths.

 

[IamTrike]

If it gets into the mid 70's I may hope for a little rain.


OK Just kidding. Though I really do not mind running in the rain. In a 'normal' year I will make many wet runs. If if looks like wet, make sure to have a billed hat to keep the rain from hitting your face and then focus on following footsteps in front of you. Avoid obvious puddles. In the parks understand that there are no easy non-puddled paths.

Thanks for posting this. I'll be packing visors and a hat now.

 

[cewait]

First look at Marathon Day. As one would expect with long term forecasts most days have turned back to seasonal or just a little warmer. Currently, marathon morning seems just a little too warm for many. It will not be a banner day with temps near the end of the race nearing 70F. Note that AW puts a chance of precipitation in... slight with very little accumulation. Something to keep an eye on, though do not fret... As hard as it is to predict temperatures, it is multiple times tougher to predict precipitation. Take comfort in knowing January is one of the driest months for Florida

Note that the W4Y forecast makes no sense at all. They seem to be looking for a deep front sometime near the weekend. Though the cold temps just show up with only a west wind. Just does not happen that way.



Accuweather
5k Start - 50F; Hi - 71F
Half Start – 54F; Hi – 72F
Full Start – 58F; Hi 71F – Chance of rain (<0.10")

Weatherforyou
5k Start – 51F; Hi – 72F
Half Start – 53F; Hi – 55F
Full Start – 36F

Norms (NWS)
50-52F low (race start)
70-72F High

10-day forecast services starting Tuesday. Is it only that long until early checkin??

 

[cewait]

Well today is a swing down in temperatures. Still warm enough to enjoy the race, yet cool enough to allow for some good running times.



Accuweather
5k Start - 45F; Hi - 66F
Half Start – 48F; Hi – 70F
Full Start – 52F; Hi 75F

Weatherforyou
5k Start – 45F; Hi – 68F
Half Start – 45F; Hi – 70F
Full Start – 55F; Hi - 57F

Weather Channel
Starting Tomorrow

Norms (NWS)
50-52F low (race start)
70-72F High

 

[Tiger Lily 03]

This is better than the Santa tracker that I've seen around the Internet lately.

 

[cewait]

This is better than the Santa tracker that I've seen around the Internet lately.

I also predict DARK for the start !

 

[pilk]

Cooler the better for me.

Jon

 

[cewait]

Accuweather
5k Start - 43F; Hi - 66F
Half Start – 46F; Hi – 72F
Full Start – 51F; Hi 76 F

Weatherforyou
5k Start – 51F; Hi – 64F
Half Start – 47F; Hi – 70F
Full Start – 47F; Hi - 68F

Weather Channel
5k Start – 55F

Norms (NWS)
50-52F low (race start)
70-72F High