Marathon Weekend 2019

[run.minnie.miles]

(@MommaoffherRocker's 2018 WDW Weekend comes to mind where we were expecting 5:29 marathon equivalent and she was seeded as 5:31 (per memory), thus just barely outside POT window per rD).

So this is something that I think (fear) could happen to me- when she entered her estimated finish for 5:29 and what she thought was the appropriate corresponding POT... what corral was she placed into? The 5:31 corral? Or did she get bumped back to the last corral?

 

[DopeyBadger]

So this is something that I think (fear) could happen to me- when she entered her estimated finish for 5:29 and what she thought was the appropriate corresponding POT... what corral was she placed into? The 5:31 corral? Or did she get bumped back to the last corral?

Based on our message exchange, she was placed in corral G (5:31-6:00) with a 10 mile time of 1:58:33 which per Hansons is a 5:29:24, Runners World a 5:29:20 and McMillan a 5:32:47. So we thought she would be in corral E based on how darn close it was. She was in G because per runDisney's calculator she was 5:31-6:00. If she had instead submitted no POT and selected 5:30 as an estimated finish time from the registration drop-down, then she would have been corralled in F (our assumption based on the corralling system to date). So, no she was not placed in the last corral. She was appropriately corralled based on runDisney's use of their calculator system which equated her 10 miler of 1:58:33 to a 5:31-6:00 marathon. I think the cases of people being seeding in the last corral without actually selecting a 7+ hr estimated finish, are people who make egregious mistakes on their registration (3:00 estimated finish with a 6:00 POT, or 3:40 estimated finish with no POT submitted, etc.). I'd be surprised being off by a few minutes from a reasonably close calculator would push you to the last corral instead. But with rD, I guess you never know for certainty.

With all that being said, she still had a very successful weekend from corral G. So even if you're corralled a little bit behind your initial thoughts, time and time again I've shown that all types of paces can be run from all different corrals.

 

[ZellyB]

So this is something that I think (fear) could happen to me- when she entered her estimated finish for 5:29 and what she thought was the appropriate corresponding POT... what corral was she placed into? The 5:31 corral? Or did she get bumped back to the last corral?

We also pushed our estimated finish a few minutes faster than our POT would have supported hoping for a slight bump in corral placement. Ultimately we ended up in the corral our POT supported (D), but very close by bib number to making it into corral C. So, who knows really when you are close on those, but clearly my putting in a slightly faster finish time than supported by my POT didn't land us in the last corral. I think they just mostly disregarded the finish time estimate and went strictly by the POT.

 

[run.minnie.miles]

Based on our message exchange, she was placed in corral G (5:31-6:00) with a 10 mile time of 1:58:33 which per Hansons is a 5:29:24, Runners World a 5:29:20 and McMillan a 5:32:47. So we thought she would be in corral E based on how darn close it was. She was in G because per runDisney's calculator she was 5:31-6:00. If she had instead submitted no POT and selected 5:30 as an estimated finish time from the registration drop-down, then she would have been corralled in F (our assumption based on the corralling system to date). So, no she was not placed in the last corral. She was appropriately corralled based on runDisney's use of their calculator system which equated her 10 miler of 1:58:33 to a 5:31-6:00 marathon. I think the cases of people being seeding in the last corral without actually selecting a 7+ hr estimated finish, are people who make egregious mistakes on their registration (3:00 estimated finish with a 6:00 POT, or 3:40 estimated finish with no POT submitted, etc.). I'd be surprised being off by a few minutes from a reasonably close calculator would push you to the last corral instead. But with rD, I guess you never know for certainty.

With all that being said, she still had a very successful weekend from corral G. So even if you're corralled a little bit behind your initial thoughts, time and time again I've shown that all types of paces can be run from all different corrals.

I am not really concerned about being placed in a later corral if my POT warrants it, I just don't want to be placed in the last corral because of an POT entry error. It's not a matter of needing to be in a higher corral as a buffer to finish, it's more of a personal thing of wanting to be able to submit a <5:30 POT. I currently have a HM time of 2:38:40, so that doesn't translate to a <5:30 marathon, so if I'm unable to better that (which I should), I will probably put a 5:30 estimated finish time.
My plan was to get a POT this weekend during my 10 mile race (1:57:30 or better), but with winds forecasted at 20-30 mph (gusts over 40 mph), I am not feeling as confident. Wind seems to be my running kryptonite.

We also pushed our estimated finish a few minutes faster than our POT would have supported hoping for a slight bump in corral placement. Ultimately we ended up in the corral our POT supported (D), but very close by bib number to making it into corral C. So, who knows really when you are close on those, but clearly my putting in a slightly faster finish time than supported by my POT didn't land us in the last corral. I think they just mostly disregarded the finish time estimate and went strictly by the POT.

Thanks for this!!

Doesn't it seems like we can't go more than 1 week without talking about POT and the (non) logic behind them?? Sorry everyone!

 

[DopeyBadger]

My plan was to get a POT this weekend during my 10 mile race (1:57:30 or better), but with winds forecasted at 20-30 mph (gusts over 40 mph), I am not feeling as confident. Wind seems to be my running kryptonite.

Will it be a tailwind, headwind, or from the side? Is it a heavily attended race around your estimated finish time or has pacers (thus a possible group to draft off of)? My advice is do your best. Keep the motivation high. If you subscribe to the Psychobiological Model of Endurance which uses the Motivational Intensity Theory, then your motivation will play a large role in your perception of effort and ability to obtain a goal. You can do this!

 

[PrincessV]

Hmmm, all this PoT talk has me concerned...

I missed the time I wanted (needed) for a new 10K to use for PoT by 27 seconds. (I know. I can't even.) Using the McMillan calculator, my 10K time puts me at a 2:45:58 half. Runner's World gives me 2:44:16. I know from past experience I can absolutely run a <2:45:00 half. I'm fine with winding up in the 2:45 corral, but really do not want to wind up in the last corral. GAH! Not sure if I should try using that stupid 10K for PoT for W&D (and races after that) or not.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Hmmm, all this PoT talk has me concerned...

I missed the time I wanted (needed) for a new 10K to use for PoT by 27 seconds. (I know. I can't even.) Using the McMillan calculator, my 10K time puts me at a 2:45:58 half. Runner's World gives me 2:44:16. I know from past experience I can absolutely run a <2:45:00 half. I'm fine with winding up in the 2:45 corral, but really do not want to wind up in the last corral. GAH! Not sure if I should try using that stupid 10K for PoT for W&D (and races after that) or not.

This is a screen shot of WD Two Course Registration.



And the drop down:



And the 2018 HM corrals:



The question becomes based on the drop-down, how does one become a "=2:45"? You either choose 2:31-2:45 (needs POT) or 2:46-3:00 (no POT required). That would seem to be corral E and corral G. But how does one find themselves in corral F? I think in both of your scenarios (you submit 10k with POT equivalent of 2:45:58 OR choose 2:46-3:00 estimated finish) both place you NOT in the last corral. You only end up in the last corral in this example by voluntarily choosing 3:01-3:15 or 3:16-3:30 from the drop-down.

Safest way to handle it is seemingly just to email rD and see if they respond. Based on @run.minnie.miles, they seem willing to give you an estimated time based on their calculator and may be able to give a hint which direction to go.

 

[PrincessV]

I think in both of your scenarios (you submit 10k with POT equivalent of 2:45:58 OR choose 2:46-3:00 estimated finish) both place you NOT in the last corral. You only end up in the last corral in this example by voluntarily choosing 3:01-3:15 or 3:16-3:30 from the drop-down.

My "fear"* is scenario 3: I enter my PoT and select 2:31 - 2:45 and rD decides my PoT doesn't support that range so I go to the back, lol! I may try emailing.
(*I'm not really afraid. I'm just sick of being stuck in the 7,000-10,00 person corral because - rD, are you reading? - MINI WAVES ARE NOT WORKING! )

 

[rteetz]

My "fear"* is scenario 3: I enter my PoT and select 2:31 - 2:45 and rD decides my PoT doesn't support that range so I go to the back, lol! I may try emailing.
(*I'm not really afraid. I'm just sick of being stuck in the 7,000-10,00 person corral because - rD, are you reading? - MINI WAVES ARE NOT WORKING! )

I think they feel they are working better. A volunteer who worked corrals but has run before felt the mini waves got people out quicker and more smoothly than having so many corrals. I think if you know how to “attack” the mini waves it can work well for you. I was in G for the half and Full but in the first wave. Other than the typical cone alley bottlenecks I never had an issue.

 

[SarahDisney]

So ... do we think that if I aim for a 1:45 10 mile, that'll get me into the sub-5:00 corral? I'm trying to solidify goals for the rest of the year and I wonder if I should be working towards that ...
My current POT puts me solidly in corral E, which I'm okay with, but if I could move up a corral, I certainly wouldn't complain.

(@DopeyBadger we'll start talking about this POT/goal situation either next week or early the week after)

 

[Princess KP]

We also pushed our estimated finish a few minutes faster than our POT would have supported hoping for a slight bump in corral placement. Ultimately we ended up in the corral our POT supported (D), but very close by bib number to making it into corral C. So, who knows really when you are close on those, but clearly my putting in a slightly faster finish time than supported by my POT didn't land us in the last corral. I think they just mostly disregarded the finish time estimate and went strictly by the POT.

I did the same. Entered a faster estimated finish time that would have put me in corral D but ultimately they looked at my POT to put me in corral E.

I am debating signing up for a 10 miler next weekend. I know others here have mentioned that it is a good distance to get a good POT but not sure if my training so far is enough to get me a better time. I've started working with a personal trainer so I do feel stronger and things don't hurt after runs. But the run is through a golf course so it would be hilly. There aren't any other 10 milers in the area so this would be my only opportunity. I am planning on running a couple of HMs in the next few months so it's not like I absolutely need to do this 10 miler. Just want to move up a corral. Thoughts?

 

[PrincessV]

I think they feel they are working better. A volunteer who worked corrals but has run before felt the mini waves got people out quicker and more smoothly than having so many corrals. I think if you know how to “attack” the mini waves it can work well for you. I was in G for the half and Full but in the first wave. Other than the typical cone alley bottlenecks I never had an issue.

I thought it worked really well for DS 2016(? the first one with the giant corral F WDW - I think that was it) with 6,000 people and 6 or 7 mini waves. It was absolutely awful for PHM this year with 10,000 in one corral and the same number of mini waves. Maybe that was because Princess, but stuffing 10,000 people into one corral was just not a pleasant experience at all, nor was the next 11ish miles of never having room to move. I felt guilty about being glad so many were hurting the last couple miles, but it did finally open things up so I could actually move at my normal speed. I will not ever duke it out to go the front of a corral, so yeah - the experience form the back is likely different, too.

 

[rteetz]

I thought it worked really well for DS 2016(? the first one with the giant corral F WDW - I think that was it) with 6,000 people and 6 or 7 mini waves. It was absolutely awful for PHM this year with 10,000 in one corral and the same number of mini waves. Maybe that was because Princess, but stuffing 10,000 people into one corral was just not a pleasant experience at all, nor was the next 11ish miles of never having room to move. I felt guilty about being glad so many were hurting the last couple miles, but it did finally open things up so I could actually move at my normal speed. I will not ever duke it out to go the front of a corral, so yeah - the experience form the back is likely different, too.

Yeah it seems the later corrals are just a bit too big now. I think for dark side this year F has something like 30% of the field in it. I don’t know if there is a perfect way to corral.

 

[DopeyBadger]

I enter my PoT and select 2:31 - 2:45 and rD decides my PoT doesn't support that range so I go to the back, lol! I may try emailing.

I can certainly understand that. That would be unnerving. I'd try emailing. If you don't get a solid answer you can feel comfortable with, then if it were me, I'd select 2:46-3:00. I feel pretty confident based on Momma's experience that you wouldn't be placed in the last corral when being off by just a few minutes.

So ... do we think that if I aim for a 1:45 10 mile, that'll get me into the sub-5:00 corral? I'm trying to solidify goals for the rest of the year and I wonder if I should be working towards that ...
My current POT puts me solidly in corral E, which I'm okay with, but if I could move up a corral, I certainly wouldn't complain.

(@DopeyBadger we'll start talking about this POT/goal situation either next week or early the week after)

Honest opinion, run the best possible 10 miler you can. Worry about doing the best on that day and not some possible POT number that may or may not be right on the line. Keep the motivation high by just doing the best and submitting your best POT. With that being said, I feel reasonably confident that a 10 miler of 1:45 is very very close to the sub-5 corral placement.

I am debating signing up for a 10 miler next weekend. I know others here have mentioned that it is a good distance to get a good POT but not sure if my training so far is enough to get me a better time. I've started working with a personal trainer so I do feel stronger and things don't hurt after runs. But the run is through a golf course so it would be hilly. There aren't any other 10 milers in the area so this would be my only opportunity. I am planning on running a couple of HMs in the next few months so it's not like I absolutely need to do this 10 miler. Just want to move up a corral. Thoughts?

Could you beat your current HM POT right now if you ran a HM? The 10 miler is a little more forgiving because in general the shorter the distance the less required endurance to succeed. In general, that's why runners see better conversions between 5k to 10k, then HM to M. Most have the speed but lack the endurance to match the race equivalency. The more focused the training on improving endurance the closer one gets to race equivalency. So a 10 miler is slightly shorter than a HM, thus you are likely to perform better at it (based on race equivalency). BUT, if you don't feel as if you could beat your HM POT next weekend, then the chances of improving your POT via 10 miler is medium-low. If you feel you're in better shape then when you ran the HM POT (and the course/environment is near equivalent), then I say go for it.

When making these types of decisions, I usually ask myself whether this upcoming race gives me optimal conditions. Am I in good shape relative to past performance? Is the weather ideal? Is the course ideal? If yes, then it is likely to be a good full effort race.

 

[run.minnie.miles]

Will it be a tailwind, headwind, or from the side? Is it a heavily attended race around your estimated finish time or has pacers (thus a possible group to draft off of)? My advice is do your best. Keep the motivation high. If you subscribe to the Psychobiological Model of Endurance which uses the Motivational Intensity Theory, then your motivation will play a large role in your perception of effort and ability to obtain a goal. You can do this!

It will be all directions- the course is a loop around a lake, so fairly wide open. The first 1/2 of the race will be the headwind, which I think is a good thing, as long as I don't tire myself too badly. Race should have around 2,000 runners, no pacers.
My goal is to run hard and do my best (as cheesy as that sounds). Thanks for the reminder of motivation and effort perception!
I learned after my fall half that I can let my nerves make pre-race so incredibly miserable, so my 1st goal is to not repeat that. I am looking forward to a new race, new distance and new location. A lot to be excited about

 

[DopeyBadger]

It will be all directions- the course is a loop around a lake, so fairly wide open. The first 1/2 of the race will be the headwind, which I think is a good thing, as long as I don't tire myself too badly. Race should have around 2,000 runners, no pacers.
My goal is to run hard and do my best (as cheesy as that sounds). Thanks for the reminder of motivation and effort perception!
I learned after my fall half that I can let my nerves make pre-race so incredibly miserable, so my 1st goal is to not repeat that. I am looking forward to a new race, new distance and new location. A lot to be excited about

Best advice then is to tuck behind someone whenever you can feel the headwind. Get right up in their draft. The data seems to suggest that even if you have to slow down your pace by 20-30 seconds to follow someone else's draft you will save significant energy once the wind directionally changes. For a theoretical example, if the goal was a 12:00 min/mile, and you maintained goal pace through a headwind (kept up 12), then your body wouldn't perceive it as a 12:00 min/mile anymore. It would be like you were running an 11:30 or 11:40 min/mile. So dropping back to a 12:20-12:30 would be similar to the same 12:00 min/mile pace. That's all to say trust the effort of what feels like goal pace and when possible tuck behind others to draft even if it means letting up a bit. Of course, allow others to draft off you every once in a while as well.

 

[roxymama]

Lurking in...saw we were talking about beers and ketchup.
I have a husband with an affinity for standing in long lines at early hours all over the midwest for rare or limited edition BBS and other various similar drinkey things. I also have a basement bar and full size beer fridge and storage area and it's preeeettty full. Because I also have a 5 year old and our drinking volume is not currently matching our collecting volume. In summary...if it exists and is from the midwest we probably have it.
I personally really enjoy Bourbon County (2015 rare was like a macroon!) except for the barleywine ones, Founders of course and I really like Odd Side (Hazel's nuts!) We have SO MUCH DARK BEER!!!!!!!!!!!!

Also...If you are 8 years old and from Chicago, then you can have ketchup with your hot dog. Once you turn 9 you should be deported if you make that choice. I once accidentally put ketchup on a dog at home after putting it on my daughter's. I groaned and then thought about just eating it, but I worried about having to file for a divorce (it's a sin too great) so I literally threw it away and made another one. I'm not even joking.
MUSTARD PEOPLE!!!!!!! EMBRACE THE MUSTARD!!!!!
(I am tolerant of non-Chicagoans having ketchup...you don't know any better and were not raised properly...it's not your fault)

Lurks away

 

[cavepig]

Thanks! I actually just started taking turmeric pills too, and I'm trying to incorporate it more in food. What are other anti-inflammatory foods that people think have helped? I agree that the frustrating thing abut this tendinitis is that every time I think it's gone, I try running again and it comes back I clearly shouldn't have tried running the minute the pain was gone, so I'm definitely taking it slower this time and no running for a full two weeks.

Besides tumeric (which I can only take on food so often it's a little odd for me), I'll use ginger and cinnamon in stuff more often, even cayanne pepper. A lot of herbs help like oregano and are easy to add to cooking. Otherwise I'm into spinach and eat it almost daily now. Dark chocolate is supposed to also & eat a square almost daily. Oh and strawberries & blueberries too. It all seems to help I have found.

My plan was to get a POT this weekend during my 10 mile race (1:57:30 or better), but with winds forecasted at 20-30 mph (gusts over 40 mph), I am not feeling as confident. Wind seems to be my running kryptonite.

Oh my gosh I have photo shoots and saw the wind and was like seriously enough already with wind! Hopefully it will be blocked for you somewhat. Spring is being stubborn sadly

 

[MommaoffherRocker]

Do we know what calculator Disney uses? I had emailed rD a question about POT a while ago asking and they said they wouldn't provide their calculations, but if I sent them a time, they would give me the race equivalent.

To the best of my knowledge, we don't know with 100% certainty. But, if a few people sent them a variety of times and rD responded with race equivalencies, then I'm confident I could figure it out. Figuring out mathematical trends and relationships is what I do.

But, for a guess:

Most race equivalency calculators use the formula:

T2 = T1 x (D2 / D1)^R

D1 = distance you already raced
T1 = time for the known distance
D2 = distance you want to predict the time
T2 = predicted time for the new distance
R = performance degradation coefficient

When Riegel came out with this calculator he set R = 1.06. Almost all online calculators that you find use this formula with R=1.06 (Runners World, Riegel, Hansons, RunningAHEAD, etc.). Someone asked me what McMillan used and based on my original research it was "proprietary based on millions of data points". Then, given Riegel's formula I set out to crack the relationship between HM and M to see if it was consistent across the board. Low and behold, it was:

View attachment 312281

Instead of Riegel's 1.06, McMillan uses 1.07. We know that McMillan and RunDisney track very closely (within a minute or so) because very few people find themselves in a position that was unexpected (@MommaoffherRocker's 2018 WDW Weekend comes to mind where we were expecting 5:29 marathon equivalent and she was seeded as 5:31 (per memory), thus just barely outside POT window per rD).

Vickers and Ian Williams have a very good data set that agree that the median for runners making a race equivalency is more like 1.15 for a marathon.

A New Race Predictor developed by Vickers: My analysis of the paper
Ian Williams: An Updated Race Equivalency Calculator Attempt


View attachment 312286

But, a 1.15 adjustment vs McMillan's 1.07 is too large of a difference for that to be the case. So, my guess is RunDisney probably uses a 1.08 R adjustment.

View attachment 312287

That puts it within a few minutes of McMillan, and it's a simple adjustment from the classic calculator. To read this above chart, a 2:00 HM (in purple) would be a 4:10:12 per Riegel, a 4:11:56 per McMillan, a 4:13:41 per rD (guess), and a 4:26:18 median per Vickers/Williams.

If people were to ask a systematic POT question to runDisney and receive race equivalents, then I'm confident I could figure out their system much like the above.



You are correct, this is the way it has been done in the past (no guarantee the same system is always used in future years). If your POT seeds you in Corral B for the Marathon, then you will be in Corral B for the HM as well. This is because rD uses the same corral placement for each event with precedent set by the marathon seeding. You will find that your race equivalency for your HM time would have individually seeded you in a faster corral if running the HM solo, but because it is the same corral placement for both you are placed by the marathon seeding. Same goes for Dopey corral placement.

Some may ask why the discrepancy. It is my belief it is because they have a certain number of slots available in each corral that they desire to fill. They seed the marathon first. So the Marathon, Goofy, and Dopey bibs are placed in a POT pool and divided up into the corral pods. Then, those same corral assignments for Goofy and Dopey take up the same spots in the HM corrals as they did the M corrals. Then, they back-fill the remaining spots in each corral of the HM with the HM POTs. So when you see a lower POT for corral C, then would have been race equivalent from a Goofy/Dopey bib that's why. It's my belief that it's simply connected to the corral assignment process when dealing with bibs that need (or at least they choose to do it that way) to be the same per HM/M.

@DopeyBadger is correct about how I was corralled. I put my time down as 5:20 since I thought I was under 5:30 which was the only other option. I went to runner relations when I got my bib to find out what calculator they used. They would only tell me it wasn't McMillian but it was "industry standard." Their calculator had me about 3-4 minutes slower than what McMillian said. I still had a great weekend and was able to PR the marathon. Plus I was so disappointed by my coral placement that I went out the weekend after they were released and got a new half PR that is well under the 5:30 POT.

 

[jennamfeo]

I am probably the only person who doesn't care about corral placement, which makes me wonder SHOULD I care?...