Marathon Weekend 2019

[FFigawi]

YOU CAN'T BRING ME DOWN TODAY, PAL!

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[lhermiston]

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You’re clearly not living the High Life.

 

[FFigawi]

You’re clearly not living the High Life.

There's a restaurant in Houston with a fabulous Champagne cart. In addition to a half-dozen or so bottles of fine French bubbly, they stock one bottle of Miller, the champagne of beers.

 

[Keels]

The ML I drink is brewed less than 15 minutes from me and is always the height of freshness. Basically craft beer if you think about it.

 

[wdvak]

Is anyone running anymore? (I'm fighting another chest cold/crud attack and being bad on getting off my butt out the door)

No, I’m sorry to say. Had a great trip to Arizona and enjoyed walking/running outside a little too much and hurt my leg. See the physical therapist tomorrow and hopeful walking again by next week.

 

[MK2010]

My plan is to still try to make this a family trip, probably the last *big* Disney family trip for a while. My wife is pursuing nursing school and the girls are getting older, so getting away from school will be tougher. We're going to spend a week down there. The plan had been to go Wednesday to Wednesday with the races in the middle, but due to my wife's class schedule, it's going to be Monday to Monday with the post-marathon celebration at Ohana and HEA being our final fling. Even with the races in the morning, I think we can make it a good family trip. Fortunately, 2/4 mornings I'll be back from racing before my family is even awake.

I'm reading through this thread, (looking for clues as to whether or not I can handle a stay at A sports while DH runs the Dopey next year.) I wanted to give you a word of warning and encouragement regarding your wife pursuing nursing school. I returned to school 3 years ago when my oldest was a Freshman in highschool and my youngest was a 4 the grader. (There's two more kids in between those.) My DH was a single dad until I graduated this past December. Nursing school HAD to become a priority. Now that I've graduated.... I'm an annual pass holder (We live in the far west of the Texas Panhandle.) We went to Disney this past January and I have two more trips planned for this year. Plus a return trip in January for Marathon Weekend. Hang in there! (Oh, did I mention that MY paycheck is the one paying for all the trips?!) Tell your wife I said Good Luck! (P.S. There are a ton of charts on Pinterest to help her study!)

 

[Keels]

We live in the far west of the Texas Panhandle.

Where in the Panhandle are you? I'm from Lubbock (I live in Fort Worth now) and my Dad's side of the family was all from Clarendon/Leila Lake//Donley County.

 

[lhermiston]

I'm reading through this thread, (looking for clues as to whether or not I can handle a stay at A sports while DH runs the Dopey next year.) I wanted to give you a word of warning and encouragement regarding your wife pursuing nursing school. I returned to school 3 years ago when my oldest was a Freshman in highschool and my youngest was a 4 the grader. (There's two more kids in between those.) My DH was a single dad until I graduated this past December. Nursing school HAD to become a priority. Now that I've graduated.... I'm an annual pass holder (We live in the far west of the Texas Panhandle.) We went to Disney this past January and I have two more trips planned for this year. Plus a return trip in January for Marathon Weekend. Hang in there! (Oh, did I mention that MY paycheck is the one paying for all the trips?!) Tell your wife I said Good Luck! (P.S. There are a ton of charts on Pinterest to help her study!)

Thanks! I appreciate the heads up. My wife has been knocking out pre-reqs at night school, so I'm all too familiar with the solo dad thing - cook, chauffer, etc. Fortunately, my two oldest are big helpers with my youngest. It takes a village, right?

 

[huskies90]

Can someone please re-post the 2018 POT pace to Coral placement chart? I know it was posted in the 2018 thread but I could not find it. I am trying to see what time I (approximately) need to get into coral A or B for the half and full - assuming I am doing Goofy. TIA

 

[Keels]

Can someone please re-post the 2018 POT pace to Coral placement chart? I know it was posted in the 2018 thread but I could not find it. I am trying to see what time I (approximately) need to get into coral A or B for the half and full - assuming I am doing Goofy. TIA

Sub 3:40 for A, 3:41-4:00 for B:

 

[MK2010]

Where in the Panhandle are you? I'm from Lubbock (I live in Fort Worth now) and my Dad's side of the family was all from Clarendon/Leila Lake//Donley County.

I'm in Amarillo. Lived here off and on for 20 years!

 

[Keels]

I'm in Amarillo. Lived here off and on for 20 years!

Awesome! Is Macaroni Joe's still a good restaurant? That was my favorite place in Amarillo!

 

[cavepig]

The latter half of this year's full was great for running. The first half with the bitter headwind all the way to MK could have been much better.

I honestly didn't even notice any wind there. My brother mentions it (of course he didn't have many people around him) and I'm like clueless on it.

I don't think anyone could have asked for better running weather for Marathon Sunday this year.

Really?!?! I would have liked it a smidge warmer, not a lot just a smidge, like 10 degrees.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Can someone please re-post the 2018 POT pace to Coral placement chart? I know it was posted in the 2018 thread but I could not find it. I am trying to see what time I (approximately) need to get into coral A or B for the half and full - assuming I am doing Goofy. TIA

In addition to @Keels chart, here are your conversions for the 2018 corral system for WDW Marathon Weekend Marathon, Goofy, and Dopey based on McMillan (which is not exactly the same as RunDisney).



These are the 2018 WDW corrals cutoffs (that @Keels) linked above with converted McMillan race equivalencies. RunDisney uses a slightly different race equivalency calculator than does McMillan, but they're close. So if you are +/- 1 minute on these you might end up in that grey area.

Two things to keep in mind:

1) The corral cutoffs can change based on the population of runners in the 2018 WDW Goofy, Dopey and Marathon. So a 4:00 M race equivalency could be good enough for B in 2018, but the cutoff could be anything (3:45 or 4:15?) in 2018. Always best to aim for your best time when submitting a POT for purposes of trying to be furtherest ahead (if that's your goal).

2) To reiterate above, these are estimates since McMillan and RunDisney's race equivalency calculators are slightly different.

 

[run.minnie.miles]

RunDisney uses a slightly different race equivalency calculator than does McMillan

Do we know what calculator Disney uses? I had emailed rD a question about POT a while ago asking and they said they wouldn't provide their calculations, but if I sent them a time, they would give me the race equivalent.

 

[cavepig]

Do we know what calculator Disney uses? I had emailed rD a question about POT a while ago asking and they said they wouldn't provide their calculations, but if I sent them a time, they would give me the race equivalent.

I don't think anyone knows 100% how they figure it out.

 

[huskies90]

In addition to @Keels chart, here are your conversions for the 2018 corral system for WDW Marathon Weekend Marathon, Goofy, and Dopey based on McMillan (which is not exactly the same as RunDisney).

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These are the 2018 WDW corrals cutoffs (that @Keels) linked above with converted McMillan race equivalencies. RunDisney uses a slightly different race equivalency calculator than does McMillan, but they're close. So if you are +/- 1 minute on these you might end up in that grey area.

Thanks, this is perfect. One more question, I assume if running the Goofy your coral for the half is based on your timings for the marathon? So for example, in 2018, I had a 1:47 HM POT and just ran the half and I was in Coral A. Based on the chart above, If I had done the Goofy in 2018 and assuming I submitted the same POT, I would be in coral B for the full because of the equivalency calculator and thus, I would also be in coral B for the half? Just confirming. Thanks again, I need a new POT for 2019 and just want to get an idea of what I am shooting for.

 

[Chaitali]

Hoping you get to run & it's better! Tendinitis is such a pain as it always seems to be a lingering kind of thing that is hard to just go away 100%. Eating anti-inflammatory foods & using tumeric seems to help I have found.

Thanks! I actually just started taking turmeric pills too, and I'm trying to incorporate it more in food. What are other anti-inflammatory foods that people think have helped? I agree that the frustrating thing abut this tendinitis is that every time I think it's gone, I try running again and it comes back I clearly shouldn't have tried running the minute the pain was gone, so I'm definitely taking it slower this time and no running for a full two weeks.

 

[ZellyB]

I also thought they did a bit of an adjustment for challenge runners, a handicap as it were, with the assumption that if you are running multiple races that will also presumably slow your pace. Not sure that's true or not, might just be urban legend.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Do we know what calculator Disney uses? I had emailed rD a question about POT a while ago asking and they said they wouldn't provide their calculations, but if I sent them a time, they would give me the race equivalent.

To the best of my knowledge, we don't know with 100% certainty. But, if a few people sent them a variety of times and rD responded with race equivalencies, then I'm confident I could figure it out. Figuring out mathematical trends and relationships is what I do.

But, for a guess:

Most race equivalency calculators use the formula:

T2 = T1 x (D2 / D1)^R

D1 = distance you already raced
T1 = time for the known distance
D2 = distance you want to predict the time
T2 = predicted time for the new distance
R = performance degradation coefficient

When Riegel came out with this calculator he set R = 1.06. Almost all online calculators that you find use this formula with R=1.06 (Runners World, Riegel, Hansons, RunningAHEAD, etc.). Someone asked me what McMillan used and based on my original research it was "proprietary based on millions of data points". Then, given Riegel's formula I set out to crack the relationship between HM and M to see if it was consistent across the board. Low and behold, it was:



Instead of Riegel's 1.06, McMillan uses 1.07. We know that McMillan and RunDisney track very closely (within a minute or so) because very few people find themselves in a position that was unexpected (@MommaoffherRocker's 2018 WDW Weekend comes to mind where we were expecting 5:29 marathon equivalent and she was seeded as 5:31 (per memory), thus just barely outside POT window per rD).

Vickers and Ian Williams have a very good data set that agree that the median for runners making a race equivalency is more like 1.15 for a marathon.

A New Race Predictor developed by Vickers: My analysis of the paper
Ian Williams: An Updated Race Equivalency Calculator Attempt




But, a 1.15 adjustment vs McMillan's 1.07 is too large of a difference for that to be the case. So, my guess is RunDisney probably uses a 1.08 R adjustment.



That puts it within a few minutes of McMillan, and it's a simple adjustment from the classic calculator. To read this above chart, a 2:00 HM (in purple) would be a 4:10:12 per Riegel, a 4:11:56 per McMillan, a 4:13:41 per rD (guess), and a 4:26:18 median per Vickers/Williams.

If people were to ask a systematic POT question to runDisney and receive race equivalents, then I'm confident I could figure out their system much like the above.

Thanks, this is perfect. One more question, I assume if running the Goofy your coral for the half is based on your timings for the marathon? So for example, in 2018, i had a 1:47 HM POT and just ran the half and I was in Coral A. Based on the chart above, If I had done the Goofy in 2018 and assuming I submitted the same POT, I would be in coral B for the full because of the equivalency calculator for the marathon and thus, I would also be in coral B for the half? Just confirming. Thanks again, I need a new POT for 2019 and just want to get an idea of what I am shooting for.

You are correct, this is the way it has been done in the past (no guarantee the same system is always used in future years). If your POT seeds you in Corral B for the Marathon, then you will be in Corral B for the HM as well. This is because rD uses the same corral placement for each event with precedent set by the marathon seeding. You will find that your race equivalency for your HM time would have individually seeded you in a faster corral if running the HM solo, but because it is the same corral placement for both you are placed by the marathon seeding. Same goes for Dopey corral placement.

Some may ask why the discrepancy. It is my belief it is because they have a certain number of slots available in each corral that they desire to fill. They seed the marathon first. So the Marathon, Goofy, and Dopey bibs are placed in a POT pool and divided up into the corral pods. Then, those same corral assignments for Goofy and Dopey take up the same spots in the HM corrals as they did the M corrals. Then, they back-fill the remaining spots in each corral of the HM with the HM POTs. So when you see a lower POT for corral C, then would have been race equivalent from a Goofy/Dopey bib that's why. It's my belief that it's simply connected to the corral assignment process when dealing with bibs that need (or at least they choose to do it that way) to be the same per HM/M.