Marathon Weekend 2019

[DopeyBadger]

Thanks DopeyBadger, that was kind of the way I was leaning too. I'm looking at trying a new plan to see if I can actually get down into the 3:30's finally, just found the FIRST method, any thoughts on it?

The success of the FIRST method is going to be predicated on your commitment to the cross training days. The plan is three days of running at speed, Tempo, and long run pacing. But all of the paces scheduled are aggressive. Therefore the basis of the plan is almost exclusively 100% hard running. The easy counterbalance comes from the cross training days. Those bike, swim or other aerobic activities are to be kept at a very easy effort. If you can't commit to the cross training days, then don't use FIRST. Because the balance of the plan becomes completely thrown off without the easy days. Your performance on race day will be unlikely what you desire.

If you would prefer an exclusively running plan, then I'd suggest looking at Hansons or Daniels. Just be mindful that the plans as written in the books may need adjustments based on one's own current fitness and schedule. The duration of workouts matter more than the mileage. So not everyone should cap a Daniels LR at 16 miles. Some may be 12 miles and others 18 miles. But nearly all will be doing about 2.5 hrs max long runs if following the methods appropriately. So that's all to say the text of the books matter a ton when choosing to do a Hansons or Daniels plan.

 

[CDKG]

I’m going to try to sign up for the 10K today. On the DVC site there is a page that refers to registering through “links on this page”. There are no links on the page now. Should I expect those links to appear when the registration window opens at 11 CDT?

Yes, give or take a few minutes.

 

[Bree]

Good luck to everyone registering today!

 

[TheHamm]

Based on a very limited data set, I believe the runDisney conversion is a Riegel R of 1.08. The standard conversion is 1.06 and McMillan uses a 1.07.

Firstly, your limited dataset is more extensive than most so I want to say thank you for sharing it.
Secondly, I want to ask if you believe this multiplier holds for using a 10k for the half.

 

[Nole95]

For some reason I cannot recall this. For just the 10K, do you need to submit a POT, or do they just ask for your estimated finish like they do for the 5K. I notice on the RD POT page that it only gives info for what you need for the half and full.

 

[rteetz]

For some reason I cannot recall this. For just the 10K, do you need to submit a POT, or do they just ask for your estimated finish like they do for the 5K. I notice on the RD POT page that it only gives info for what you need for the half and full.

They ask for an estimated time.

 

[CDKG]

For some reason I cannot recall this. For just the 10K, do you need to submit a POT, or do they just ask for your estimated finish like they do for the 5K. I notice on the RD POT page that it only gives info for what you need for the half and full.

The 10k is like the 5k. Just select your estimated pace, no POT.

 

[opusone]

Secondly, I want to ask if you believe this multiplier holds for using a 10k for the half.

Yes... the Riegel formula is pretty valid for all distances from 1 mi to half marathon. It has been proven to be less accurate outside of that range. Therefore, I usually don't trust it for a marathon prediction.

 

[DopeyBadger]

Firstly, your limited dataset is more extensive than most so I want to say thank you for sharing it.
Secondly, I want to ask if you believe this multiplier holds for using a 10k for the half.

I don't have any data to suggest one way or the other, but as the distance decreases so does the difference in time between the possible different calculations. It appears McMillan still uses a Rigel R of 1.07 for his 10k to HM conversion.



So, if we use all three (1.06, 1.07, and 1.08) you can see there is a very minor difference:



To read this, it would say if your 10k time was a 1:00:00, then a 1.06 would estimate a 2:12:20 HM, a 1.07 a 2:13:20 HM, and a possible runDisney of 2:14:19. A difference of about 2 min in predicted time. So relatively speaking, fairly tight.

Yes... the Riegel formula is pretty valid for all distances from 1 mi to half marathon. It has been proven to be less accurate outside of that range. Therefore, I usually don't trust it for a marathon prediction.

Agreed. According to these two datasets, it would appear the average person is closer to a R of 1.15 when converting a HM time to a M prediction.

Ian Williams: An Updated Race Equivalency Calculator Attempt

This graph is a % of population falling into each category of a R conversion value from HM to M.



So the initial conclusion was 1.15 is a better predictor R for HM to M than is 1.06. It does split the middle of the data set (with 47% on both sides). So better. Williams dataset says the midpoint is 1.15 with a 25-75% range of 1.10 to 1.19 and Vickers dataset says the midpoint is 1.13 with a 25-75% range of 1.09-1.17.

So for a 2:00 HM runner, what does that mean?

Rigel - traditional calculator (1.06) = M of 4:10:12
Williams - 1.15 = M of 4:26:18 (range of 4:17-4:33)
Vickers - 1.13 = M of 4:22:38 (range of 4:15-4:30)

 

[jaxonp]

This may have been talked about so forgive me if so..

I see that Disney increased the prices of the races and are also adding in a 6.6% processing fee on the total... Really? They got rid of active, which should save us some money, and now found away to charge even more????

 

[SarahDisney]

AP Registration links are active!

EDIT: By active I mean live/available, not active.com. Still directs you to runDisney.

 

[Dan1]

For early registration you must either login to your DVC or AP account to find the link for registration. The runDisney page has a section on early registration that will take you to the correct respective pages.

AP Registration links are active!

still waiting for DVC link. It’s ‘sctive’ but takes to another page which says ‘Wait is almost over.

 

[Disney at Heart]

I’m on a page that says The Wait is Almost Over. I’m “in line”! Anybody else there?

 

[jennamfeo]

This may have been talked about so forgive me if so..

I see that Disney increased the prices of the races and are also adding in a 6.6% processing fee on the total... Really? They got rid of active, which should save us some money, and now found away to charge even more????

This is the price difference from 2018 to 2019:
Dopey Challenge $560 (No price increase)
Goofy Challenge $365 (No price increase)
Full Marathon $185 ($5 increase)
Half Marathon $185 ($5 increase)
10K $120 ($10 increase)
5K $80 ($15 increase)

And the 6.6% was the exact same processing fee as Active.com, so it really isn't that much different. They were never in the market to save ~us~ money.

 

[CDKG]

My wait still isn’t over...

 

[jennamfeo]

I'm so jealous of all you AP!!

 

[wisblue]

I’m on a page that says The Wait is Almost Over. I’m “in line”! Anybody else there?

I have that too on the DVC site. It says approximate wait time 10 minutes.

The page seems to refresh itself every few seconds

 

[ANIM8R]

S

I’m on a page that says The Wait is Almost Over. I’m “in line”! Anybody else there?

Same for me (12:02)

 

[SarahDisney]

still waiting for DVC link. It’s ‘sctive’ but takes to another page which says ‘Wait is almost over.

I’m on a page that says The Wait is Almost Over. I’m “in line”! Anybody else there?

I'm getting the same thing.
But I couldn't even get to that page 10 minutes ago, so I think we're in a good place. I hope.
(Not that I'm registering, but I still want to go through the process ... yes, I know, you all hate me for creating extra traffic. Get over it.)

I'm so jealous of all you AP!!

If I could lend you my AP so that you could register, I would ... but I don't think it works that way.

 

[Dan1]

I’m on a page that says The Wait is Almost Over. I’m “in line”! Anybody else there?

Yup