Magic Key Program

[ComeToSocialize]

I must say, I am surprised at how little weekend availability there is. For example, there is not a saturday between now and Nov 27 where a Dream (highest level) pass can book DL as their first park (There are a few days when you could do DCA first and then hop). Those saturdays are the only days that are blocked out for Believe (next level down) between now and Thanksgiving. So there are literally zero days where a Dream pass has better access to DL than a Believe pass between now and Nov 25. So why should anyone buy a Dream pass?

More broadly, regardless of pass, it seems that weekends are booking up quickly. Is this because people are booking just in case and then canceling? Makes it seem like impromptu trips are no longer possible, which I guess was Disney's goal. Even so far out as Dec 12, there is no DL availability.

I will say, I was on the fence before but the availability calendar makes me extremely unlikely to buy a MK unless things improve. I actually cannot see a reason to buy a Dream pass unless you're able to plan ahead and know 3 months out when you want to go to the parks. Not anyone's fault here (Disney's fault) and I can see why others would still be OK with this setup, but as someone who doesn't live in LA, but goes fairly frequently (usually with 1-2 week notice), it seems like an MK is not viable to me.

 

[LisaT91403]

I just bought my Believe pass today. I could be wrong, but it doesn't seem like your MK level (Dream, Believe, etc.) makes a difference in getting reservations. Either they are available for a MK holder on a particular day, or they are sold out. The only difference seems to be which days are blocked out.

When I got mine today, I immediately went to make some reservations. I looked for Saturdays, and there were none. Then I booked the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, and 12/17 when my son is out of school. I went back to November, and Saturday 11/6 was magically available for both parks. This was all within about 5 minutes. And once I was done booking 11/6, I looked back and it was only available for a DCA start, and 12/17 was gone. So it seems like it changes quite quickly!

 

[ComeToSocialize]

I just bought my Believe pass today. I could be wrong, but it doesn't seem like your MK level (Dream, Believe, etc.) makes a difference in getting reservations. Either they are available for a MK holder on a particular day, or they are sold out. The only difference seems to be which days are blocked out.

When I got mine today, I immediately went to make some reservations. I looked for Saturdays, and there were none. Then I booked the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, and 12/17 when my son is out of school. I went back to November, and Saturday 11/6 was magically available for both parks. This was all within about 5 minutes. And once I was done booking 11/6, I looked back and it was only available for a DCA start, and 12/17 was gone. So it seems like it changes quite quickly!

Right, all reservations come from the same pool regardless of pass level, but there are days when all other passes are blocked out, so by definition every reservation slot on those blockout days is for a Dream pass. And those days still are sold out of reservations, so either most people are buying Dream passes (unlikely) or Disney has reduced the allocation for blockout days so much that Dream passes are useless unless you plan way in advance (seems to be the case).

I would've thought it would be easier to get a reservation as a Dream passholder on days when the other passes are blocked out, but that does not seem to be the case at all. It seems that extra popularity and Disney setting the reservation limit low has offset the lack of competition from other pass levels. I don't remember sellouts being a big deal with Flex pass?

I do agree people seem to cancel a lot and things free up if persistently checking.

 

[gelatoni fan]

Right, all reservations come from the same pool regardless of pass level, but there are days when all other passes are blocked out, so by definition every reservation slot on those blockout days is for a Dream pass. And those days still are sold out of reservations, so either most people are buying Dream passes (unlikely) or Disney has reduced the allocation for blockout days so much that Dream passes are useless unless you plan way in advance (seems to be the case).

I would've thought it would be easier to get a reservation as a Dream passholder on days when the other passes are blocked out, but that does not seem to be the case at all. It seems that extra popularity and Disney setting the reservation limit low has offset the lack of competition from other pass levels. I don't remember sellouts being a big deal with Flex pass?

I do agree people seem to cancel a lot and things free up if persistently checking.

Flex pass did have sellouts sometimes but it affected far fewer people. With "good to go" days and a 30 day window, you'd only have an issue if you want to visit the parks on more than 2 weekends that were very close in time to each other. Not only were flex passes a subset of APs but the reservation issue only affected people who were going on many weekends close together which is not the majority of Flex pass holders. Now, every single person with a Magic Key has to deal with reservations and you could have issues planning trips that are months apart due to the longer 90 day window and no "good to go" days.

There's also a self-selection factor. Those who dislike the reservation system the most would have chosen to not buy a Flex pass. Now they're forced into it and far more likely to be vocal about their displeasure.

With the Flex pass, people were actually committing to their reservations because most were planning at most, one to two weekend trips a month. People definitely seem to be proactively booking and cancelling a lot more now.

 

[Skyegirl1999]

I just want to point out again that the calendar filling up has happened in the last week.

A mere week ago, October looked like this:


It now looks like this:


The availability has taken a HUGE nosedive over the past week. Someone upthread said "usually weekdays are gone a few days in advance." That actually hasn't been true at all. The first non-holiday M-Th to be gone in advance, ever, was last Thursday, as in five days ago, which sold out on Wednesday afternoon, the day before.

Now, suddenly a TON of days are gone. I mean, shoot, December already has six DCA-start-only days. It's absolutely spiraled out of control in the past week.

It's way too early to say if this is going to be "normal" or not, though. As of a week ago, Disney really had no "issue" with Magic Key availability, so they haven't even had time to make any pivots or changes to how they're allocating reservations...

 

[Skyegirl1999]

And those days still are sold out of reservations, so either most people are buying Dream passes (unlikely) or Disney has reduced the allocation for blockout days so much that Dream passes are useless unless you plan way in advance (seems to be the case).

Oh, I 100% think the Dream pass is the most popular. I know eight local families with passes, and all are Dream passes, even though a lot of them had lower-tier APs before. Every Instagram poll I've seen has more Dream holders than all of the other passes put together. (I mean that literally, doing the math, and it's not even close.) I think those Saturdays are going first because they're popular days, period.

 

[dina444444]

I just want to point out again that the calendar filling up has happened in the last week.

A mere week ago, October looked like this:
View attachment 608332

It now looks like this:
View attachment 608333

The availability has taken a HUGE nosedive over the past week. Someone upthread said "usually weekdays are gone a few days in advance." That actually hasn't been true at all. The first non-holiday M-Th to be gone in advance, ever, was last Thursday, as in five days ago, which sold out on Wednesday afternoon, the day before.

Now, suddenly a TON of days are gone. I mean, shoot, December already has six DCA-start-only days. It's absolutely spiraled out of control in the past week.

It's way too early to say if this is going to be "normal" or not, though. As of a week ago, Disney really had no "issue" with Magic Key availability, so they haven't even had time to make any pivots or changes to how they're allocating reservations...

Hopefully they start rebalancing the different passes/ticket allocations like they did for wdw. I also hope that reservation availability starts to get better as more CMs come back to work and capacity increases back to normal.

 

[SOCALMouseMommy]

Hopefully they start rebalancing the different passes/ticket allocations like they did for wdw. I also hope that reservation availability starts to get better as more CMs come back to work and capacity increases back to normal.

Oh is that what they did there? I hope they do it here too because it’s not that there are no reservations available on weekends, just none for passes.

 

[dina444444]

Oh is that what they did there? I hope they do it here too because it’s not that there are no reservations available on weekends, just none for passes.

Yes, they are constantly rebalancing and releasing more reservations, but that has happened since the beginning. Essentially at this point anyone can get a reservation just about every day. Very few days have no availability and it’s been this was way for a number of months now.

 

[ComeToSocialize]

Oh, I 100% think the Dream pass is the most popular. I know eight local families with passes, and all are Dream passes, even though a lot of them had lower-tier APs before. Every Instagram poll I've seen has more Dream holders than all of the other passes put together. (I mean that literally, doing the math, and it's not even close.) I think those Saturdays are going first because they're popular days, period.

Interesting, and also interesting that the reservation availability only recently became a problem (I would guess that Disney reduced reservation availability rather than all of a sudden a ton of people make reservations).

I guess it's kind of like Genie+ - if you're the only one that has a Dream pass, then it's great. If everyone has it, it's useless since you can't use it on the blocked out days. And something changed in the last week to change that calculus...

 

[Skyegirl1999]

Interesting, and also interesting that the reservation availability only recently became a problem (I would guess that Disney reduced reservation availability rather than all of a sudden a ton of people make reservations).

I guess it's kind of like Genie+ - if you're the only one that has a Dream pass, then it's great. If everyone has it, it's useless since you can't use it on the blocked out days. And something changed in the last week to change that calculus...

So, I said some of this already, but I suspect these are the major factors:
1. A lot of people had CA resident tickets good until the end of September, and they didn't buy Magic Keys until they used those up.
2. A lot of people were "waiting a few weeks" to buy a Magic Key, and again, until last week, the calendar looked great. The early reviews being good, people made the leap.
3. Many people who had Magic Keys weren't actually booking all their reservations because they didn't need to. But once there was a "run" on dates, they started using all their available reservation inventory. Anecdotally, this applies to a lot of the Dream holders I know (Including us! I only had four days reserved a week ago. I now have all six booked.) Basically, over the past week, Magic Key reservations became the equivalent of March 2020 toilet paper, and so people are now hoarding as much as possible rather than just having enough on hand for a couple of weeks.

 

[tsumgirl]

3. Many people who had Magic Keys weren't actually booking all their reservations because they didn't need to. But once there was a "run" on dates, they started using all their available reservation inventory. Anecdotally, this applies to a lot of the Dream holders I know (Including us! I only had four days reserved a week ago. I now have all six booked.) Basically, over the past week, Magic Key reservations became the equivalent of March 2020 toilet paper, and so people are now hoarding as much as possible rather than just having enough on hand for a couple of weeks.

I'm another Dream holder that didn't book all my reservations. I only used 2 until I saw the dates starting to go, and quickly locked in the other 4. Now I'm sitting back watching how quickly the weekdays go, since I'll need at least one Monday in December, in addition to what I have reserved.

 

[SOCALMouseMommy]

Basically, over the past week, Magic Key reservations became the equivalent of March 2020 toilet paper, and so people are now hoarding as much as possible rather than just having enough on hand for a couple of weeks.

Omg

 

[DizMe]

Advice needed on park reservation. I have a Dream Key. Have an annual sister trip in Dec booked 13-16 and reserved all 4 park days, staying at GCH.

Then I realized I still have DLH reservations under the deferred 2019 Dapper day rate of $334/night, so I am taking my daughter and grandson Nov 13-16. I got their 3-day tickets and booked park reservations for them Nov 14-16 (Sun, M, Tues) . I reserved the first 2 days only for myself because that used up my 6 reservations.

I thought maybe I could book the 3rd day after I'd used the 1st, but yikes. I don't want to risk Dec dates.

Is there any strategy for this? Does staying on site give you any advantage? Thanks for any advice you might have.

 

[Skyegirl1999]

Advice needed on park reservation. I have a Dream Key. Have an annual sister trip in Dec booked 13-16 and reserved all 4 park days, staying at GCH.

Then I realized I still have DLH reservations under the deferred 2019 Dapper day rate of $334/night, so I am taking my daughter and grandson Nov 13-16. I got their 3-day tickets and booked park reservations for them Nov 14-16 (Sun, M, Tues) . I reserved the first 2 days only for myself because that used up my 6 reservations.

I thought maybe I could book the 3rd day after I'd used the 1st, but yikes. I don't want to risk Dec dates.

Is there any strategy for this? Does staying on site give you any advantage? Thanks for any advice you might have.

I'd drop December 16 and start stalking to add it back when you have a day free in November. You'll have over a month for it to pop up; I think you will be fine.

 

[Mathmagicland]

Does staying on site give you any advantage?

Unfortunately not, because even with hotel or DVC reservations, MKs cannot pull out hotel reservation bucket. MKs can only pull from the MK reservation bucket.

 

[bwvBound]

Unfortunately not, because even with hotel or DVC reservations, MKs cannot pull out hotel reservation bucket. MKs can only pull from the MK reservation bucket.

Are we sure about that? I would think that having a hotel stay would give me to two buckets to pull from for the duration of the hotel stay?

 

[Kender]

Are we sure about that? I would think that having a hotel stay would give me to two buckets to pull from for the duration of the hotel stay?

Yup. Very sure. Staying on site does not grant one length of stay privileges. So logical that you're not pulling from the hotel bucket either.

 

[bwvBound]

Yup. Very sure. Staying on site does not grant one length of stay privileges. So logical that you're not pulling from the hotel bucket either.

So who does pull from the hotel bucket?

Back in April, I used regular tickets for DL Day 1 (re-opening) and pulled from the hotel bucket even though my reservation was for a DVC stay the following week.

 

[Skyegirl1999]

A friend of mine maybe wanted to go to DL tomorrow (Wednesday, 9/29), and someone mentioned on our text chain that you "probably can pick up a cancelled reservation at like 11pm." If anyone else is curious if that's currently possible, I kept my computer open and refreshed the AP calendar periodically while I was cutting fabric tonight:

• I refreshed the page at 11:01pm, and tomorrow was available for DL. It was there for a few minutes, but was gone by 11:06.
• I refreshed a couple more times with nothing, but at 11:18, DL was available again. Lasted at least 2-3 minutes.
• At 11:39, DL was available again. Not sure how long.
• At 11:57, DCA was available until at least 11:59.

So, at least for now, if you were REALLY devoted/desperate (and a bit of a night owl), you could theoretically pick up a cancellation the night before. I hadn't noticed 9/29 ever available when I checked sporadically earlier in the day, although I did see Thursday 9/30 a few times.