Lots of DVC Questions - Just got back from a 10 Day trip to WDW

[walkdmc]

I only read the OP but we paid $16,500 for 160 BLT points, on the resale market, just an FYI. That cost included all of the closing costs.

We settled in June of this year and we got all 2009 points, along with the full allotment of points moving forward from 2009.

 

[walkdmc]

Oh, and good luck with fitting 6 into a studio

Plus, you're not allowed to exceed capacity.

 

[JimMIA]

The assumptions I used where based on resale prices quoted and actual dues paid.

if you used DVC prices BLT looks even better.

Difficult to think of a better set of assumptions that can be made using data available.

If you want to make alternative assumption you can use the formula with your own numbers.

Assumptions:

1. Contracts will be held for only 10 years (if you carry this further out, the advantage to SSR increases)
2. SSR has already had its increase from the withdrawal of subsidies, and dues will increase 3% annually
3. BLT subsidies will be withdrawn gradually, so BLT dues will increase 5% annually for five years and the same 3% thereafter
4. Most of the initial depreciation of value of SSR has already occurred, but SSR's value will decrease 17% over ten years from $60 per point to $50 per point.
5. Some of BLT's initial depreciation has not yet occurred, so BLT's value will decrease slightly more over ten years -- 25% vs 17% -- from $96 to $72.

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With a BLT price of 96 (your number), the depreciation would net a loss of $24 per point when selling 10 years out. $24.00 divided by 10 years = $2.40 per year.

BLT's dues would be $4.08, $4.41, $4.76, $5.17, $5.59, $5.75, $5.93, $6.11, $6.29, $6.48 = $54.51 or $5.46 per year.

$2.40 + $5.46 = $7.86 per point per year

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With an SSR price of $60 (your number), the depreciation would be $10.00. Divided by 10 = $1.00 per year.

The SSR dues would be $4.59, $4.73, $4.87, $5.02, $ 5.17, $5.33, $5.49, $5.65, $ 5.82, $5.99 = $52.66 or $5.27 per year.

$1.00 + $5.27 = $6.27 per point per year.

SSR is $1.59 per point less expensive per year.
*****
Like I said, it's all in the assumptions you use. You or I either one can make it come out however we want.

 

[dd08]

Here you go.

Resale price SSR 60
Number of years left 44
Current dues 4.46

60/44 = 1.36

Annual cost per point 1.36 + 4.46= 5.82

Resale price BLT 96
number of years left 50
current dues 3.78

96/50=1.92

annual cost per point 1.92 + 3.78= 5.70

using the above assumptions it is cheaper to buy BLT than SSR.

what happens if you sell before the contract ends? People often forget to consider that if you sell early you will get money back for membership.
In theory the annual decline in value of membership should be higher at SSR than BLT because SSR has a shorter contract.

Sorry I have to chime in here.......

The biggest assumption that has to be made in the "which is cheaper BLT vs. *pick your resort*" debate is that while BLT does appear to be cheaper per point most.....if not all the time. What some (many I would dare say) fail to remember is that you need many more points to stay in comparable accomodations (room type) and comparable lengths of vacations at BLT than what you do with the other resorts.

From the math that I did when we first purchased, once you factor that in (say take a 1 bedroom for 7 nights) and make the comparsions, the "super-cheap" MFs at BLT don't seem so cheap anymore.

 

[JimMIA]

Sorry I have to chime in here.......

The biggest assumption that has to be made in the "which is cheaper BLT vs. *pick your resort*" debate is that while BLT does appear to be cheaper per point most.....if not all the time. What some (many I would dare say) fail to remember is that you need many more points to stay in comparable accomodations (room type) and comparable lengths of vacations at BLT than what you do with the other resorts.

From the math that I did when we first purchased, once you factor that in (say take a 1 bedroom for 7 nights) and make the comparsions, the "super-cheap" MFs at BLT don't seem so cheap anymore.

There is a BIG difference between the cost of a DVC purchase and the cost of a DVC vacation.

The point cost of a particular stay is irrelevant to the question of which resort costs less to purchase because the points cost for any stay is the same for everyone.

 

[dd08]

There is a BIG difference between the cost of a DVC purchase and the cost of a DVC vacation.

The point cost of a particular stay is irrelevant to the question of which resort costs less to purchase because the points cost for any stay is the same for everyone.

Depends on your context.........

If you purchase DVC points based on how you plan to use them.....then the cost of a DVC vacation will greatly weigh-in on your cost of your DVC purchase.

For example we based our DVC purchase on the assumption of using a 1-BR for 1 week. In that situation the two go very much hand-in-hand.

 

[Mr. X]

WOW! Thanks all for your feedback. Looks like I'm going to call our DVC contact back and tell her we're no longer interested.

Based on feedback it seems like renting points or Resale is the way to go.

2 quick questions:
-Where is the best resource for DVC point rentals, and if I know a DVC member how do i discuss renting points from them?

-If you buy resale are you still treated the same and get the same perks as if you bought the points direct from Disney? Does resale allow financing if needed?

My wife and i at this point have decide that we won't be going back to WDW w/o using DVC points by either being a renter or owner.

Thanks so much for your help.

 

[JimMIA]

Depends on your context.........

If you purchase DVC points based on how you plan to use them.....then the cost of a DVC vacation will greatly weigh-in on your cost of your DVC purchase.

For example we based our DVC purchase on the assumption of using a 1-BR for 1 week. In that situation the two go very much hand-in-hand.

My point is this: You own at AKV, I own at OKW and SSR, but if we both stay at BLT we pay the same points cost for BLT. It makes no difference where our points come from -- the points cost at BLT will be high, but it will be the same for us and the same for a BLT owner. If a BLT owner wises up and stays at my OKW, they get the same bargain I get or you would get.

The points cost of the vacation is the same for everyone, and does not affect the purchase price calculations.

 

[dd08]

My point is this: You own at AKV, I own at OKW and SSR, but if we both stay at BLT we pay the same points cost for BLT. It makes no difference where our points come from -- the points cost at BLT will be high, but it will be the same for us and the same for a BLT owner. If a BLT owner wises up and stays at my OKW, they get the same bargain I get or you would get.

The points cost of the vacation is the same for everyone, and does not affect the purchase price calculations.

I understand your point. That holds true as long as you can stay at resorts that you don't own at, which is already getting harder and harder to do......

And Disney can take away that perk if they want to.

 

[McCrae]

Sorry I have to chime in here.......

The biggest assumption that has to be made in the "which is cheaper BLT vs. *pick your resort*" debate is that while BLT does appear to be cheaper per point most.....if not all the time. What some (many I would dare say) fail to remember is that you need many more points to stay in comparable accomodations (room type) and comparable lengths of vacations at BLT than what you do with the other resorts.

From the math that I did when we first purchased, once you factor that in (say take a 1 bedroom for 7 nights) and make the comparsions, the "super-cheap" MFs at BLT don't seem so cheap anymore.

I agree the cost of membership is different to the cost of staying at a resort. Whilst owning at BLT is probably the cheapest option to buy DVC membership, staying at BLT is probably not the cheapest way to have a DVC vacation.

It could be argued that the best option would be to buy at BLT , but stay at resorts such as SSR.

 

[ercrbc]

It could be argued that the best option would be to buy at BLT , but stay at resorts such as SSR.

SSR is NOT the cheapest in vacation pt cost. OKW, AKV value and standard, and BWV standard are all cheaper in points to stay at than SSR.

I can't say I agree that BLT is the best value based on your math above. Without taking into account the variable increase in MFs each year, the numbers are missing a key factor in accurately determining the overall cost per point.