Looks like I’m about to LOSE the value of my 200 points!

[Sandisw]

I wonder if they've gotten all the thermostats off the motion detection? In the past few years we've walked into a room a couple of times where the air had not been running for a bit. It does start to cause dampness issues pretty quickly.

Good point. I hope so! We are going into a time where temps are going up too.

 

[tjm236]

I started typing this out but then I figured maybe a chart format would work better. None of us really knows what the data that the DVC higher ups are looking at looks like. We keep talking about moving points from this use year, to next use year, and inventory shortages this year vs next year. I know pretty much everyone here knows that there are multiple use years, but I think when theorizing, it's hard to keep track of that in our brains.

Below is a quick chart based on a couple of assumptions:

1) Resorts re-open on July 1, 2020
2) This relates to cancellations made between April 1 and June 30, 2020

Leave Borrowed Points in Current Use Year

Move Borrowed Points Back to Original Use Year

Use Year	1st Day of Use	Last Day of Use	Total Days of Use	1st Day of Use	Last Day of Use	Total Days of Use
February	7/1/2020	1/31/2021	214	7/1/2020	1/31/2023	944
March	7/1/2020	2/28/2021	242	7/1/2020	2/28/2023	972
April	7/1/2020	3/31/2021	273	7/1/2020	3/31/2023	1003
June	Expired	Expired	0	7/1/2020	5/31/2022	699
August	7/1/2020	7/31/2020	30	7/1/2020	7/31/2022	760
September	7/1/2020	8/31/2020	61	7/1/2020	8/31/2022	791
October	7/1/2020	9/30/2020	91	7/1/2020	9/30/2022	821
December	7/1/2020	11/30/2020	152	7/1/2020	11/30/2022	882

Based on this chart, here is my observation:

If they kept to the normal rules and didn't move borrowed points back into their original use year, those with June, August, September and possibly October Use Year's would more than likely see points expire. This would suck for those owners, but be beneficial to the system.

However, what that does is creates a major log jam between July 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021. Between that period, you will have 3 categories of bookings

1) Normal bookings (pre-covid)
2) Those with banked points that are set to expire (due to cancellations).
3) Those with borrowed points that are set to expire (due to cancellations).

As has been discussed at lengths, there is not much DVC can do about the first two. However, by allowing borrowed points to be moved back into their original use year, your taking that 3rd category out of the picture for the most part. Yes, this will create some extra points in the system for the next few years, but these points now have a much longer shelf life. They won't all be used at once which is easier for the system to absorb.

Every year, there are a number of points that expire naturally, and these end up getting used by DVC to rent out for cash reservations for their own profit. The extra points in the system over the next few years should be absorbed (atleast partially) by these expiring points. The real loser at the end of the day is DVC who will have much lower inventory they can sell for their profit.

I think the log jam is a shorter period than July 1, 2020 to March 31, 2021, and the short-term effects of unborrowing are overstated. Given that we were already within 7 months when the parks were closed, I would assume a lot of July-September availability was already taken. The log jam would really be due to last minute bookings (normal issues) or people trying to reschedule reservations that were originally during the closure period. While forcing people to use their points vs putting them back to the original UY would make it more difficult to book in the months after reopening, it would already have been somewhat difficult.

This would also only be a short term problem and could be mitigated somewhat by people not able/willing to travel so soon after things are open. Also, would you rather have more difficulty booking something for a few months immediately after the resorts reopen and the pandemic may or may not be under control, or for the next 2 years as these unborrowed points are used and hopefully the pandemic is over?

Late banking also only covers April and June UYs (I'm going with the theory that everyone else was fully aware of the risk they were taking and could bank), while unborrowing covers EVERY UY. Is it better for the system to move the subset of points from April and June UYs that were being used for late trips or ALL of the borrowed points from all UYs that were being used for trips during the period of closure?

 

[CanadaDisney05]

I think the log jam is a shorter period than July 1, 2020 to March 31, 2021, and the short-term effects of unborrowing are overstated. Given that we were already within 7 months when the parks were closed, I would assume a lot of July-September availability was already taken. The log jam would really be due to last minute bookings (normal issues) or people trying to reschedule reservations that were originally during the closure period. While forcing people to use their points vs putting them back to the original UY would make it more difficult to book in the months after reopening, it would already have been somewhat difficult.

This would also only be a short term problem and could be mitigated somewhat by people not able/willing to travel so soon after things are open. Also, would you rather have more difficulty booking something for a few months immediately after the resorts reopen and the pandemic may or may not be under control, or for the next 2 years as these unborrowed points are used and hopefully the pandemic is over?

Late banking also only covers April and June UYs (I'm going with the theory that everyone else was fully aware of the risk they were taking and could bank), while unborrowing covers EVERY UY. Is it better for the system to move the subset of points from April and June UYs that were being used for late trips or ALL of the borrowed points from all UYs that were being used for trips during the period of closure?

In general I think your right, though without the actual data it's all assumptions. Spreading that use though over nearly a 3 year period will reduce the effects, as well as give people time to try and use their points in other ways (cruises, adventures by Disney, concierge collection, Disney collection) to pull points out of the system.

But I think the thought is since these were DVC cancelled reservations rather than member cancelled reservations they are simply trying to "undo" the reservation as if it never happened. If you undo the reservations banked points still sit there in their banked use year, not in holding. If you undo the reservation for current use year points, they sit their in their original use year, and can only be banked within the first 8 months. If you undo a borrowed points reservation, the points go back to their original use year. In order to borrow points, you have to tie it to a current use year reservation.