I'm a new poster but kind of in your same situation. We're looking to buy and recently made an offer to buy at VWL that was accepted and we are signing everything up this week (our fingers will be crossed on ROFR!).
I know I'm hardly qualified, but when we were trying to decide where to buy, it ultimately came down to where we wanted to stay and what kind of experience we wanted. We knew being near the Magic Kingdom was priority #1 for us - it's our favorite park by far and having to take a bus kind of ruins the magic for us.
We, too, are wanting to rent 1 bedrooms, so Poly was out. Then, both for us, and our future kids, theme was important - BLT and VGF are both awesome, more updated, and closer to the park, but they just don't have the same level of theme at VWL.
We stayed at BLT for our trip earlier this month and LOVED the location, but we just like being immersed in a theme. Also, since we are treating
DVC like a "home away from home", having a place just a bit away from the park that was quiet was also a nice perk.
The obvious downsides to VWL are obviously the 2042 expiry and the potential for VWL2 to de-value the VWL. We liked Wilderness (and the boat ride to MK) when we stayed there and we got a good deal in resale, so we decided to pull the trigger anyway.
But the long story short for you is: pick the one you want to stay at. If theme is important for you, take a good long think about not doing BLT. If being close to the Magic Kingdom is not make-or-break, strongly consider AK - you will get a better deal on resale than BLT or VWL. If you care about theme and want to be close to MK, then think about VWL (of the ones you suggested). If it were me, I'd probably have a hard time buying somewhere I've never seen or stayed, but go with your gut!