Let's speculate about Polynesian some more!

[Jwaire]

Makes sense why it's basically been selling forever. 11.5 million / (100k * 12 months) = 9.6 years. Even if they were to sell Aulani at 100k per month it still would take 9.6 years.. not even on property resorts sell that fast and then add in COVID lol

People who complain about RIV should keep this in mind too. 6.9 mill is a lot of points. I think it took SSR like 9 or 10 years to sell out and there was less drama.

 

[Jwaire]

I don't recall writing "large percentage". No clue what the percentge is. Some number of 4 million points already owned want larger than studios. A resort like BLT, I believe it's pretty close same number of 2BR dedicated and 2BR lockoffs. At PVB, pretty scary it's 360 studios and the number of bungalows.

Wasn't aimed at you. It's just that keeps getting thrown around that there's going to be a run on 1 and 2 bedrooms at the new tower by current PVB owners to a point it's gonna be a problem. It's comical to me. The majority probably barely own enough points to stay at a studio at their own home resort.

 

[Sandisw]

Wasn't aimed at you. It's just that keeps getting thrown around that there's going to be a run on 1 and 2 bedrooms at the new tower by current PVB owners to a point it's gonna be a problem. It's comical to me. The majority probably barely own enough points to stay at a studio at their own home resort.

But isn’t that one of the reasons that some feel DVD will keep it the same association? Because the current owners need a balanced resort? And need larger room options?

There is definitely going to be issues to start…assuming the same…because declared inventory will be small compared to the points that will be eligible for home resort bookings immediately.

At least with BPK, they did declare all rooms by opening day….

Now, once it’s sold out maybe it won’t be a big deal but too much of a possibility for me to choose it as a home resort,

 

[GoingSince1990]

But isn’t that one of the reasons that some feel DVD will keep it the same association? Because the current owners need a balanced resort? And need larger room options?

There is definitely going to be issues to start…assuming the same…because declared inventory will be small compared to the points that will be eligible for home resort bookings immediately.

At least with BPK, they did declare all rooms by opening day….

Now, once it’s sold out maybe it won’t be a big deal but too much of a possibility for me to choose it as a home resort,

If my heart was set on mostly staying in studios in the new tower, the competition from existing owners would certainly give me pause for thought if it is the same association. But if I was mainly interested in 1 BRs or bigger, I would not be worried about getting what I wanted at 11 months, same association or not.

 

[tidefan]

If my heart was set on mostly staying in studios in the new tower, the competition from existing owners would certainly give me pause for thought if it is the same association. But if I was mainly interested in 1 BRs or bigger, I would not be worried about getting what I wanted at 11 months, same association or not.

I actually think that the original longhouse studios will be the more preferred ones if A) the square footage is higher than the studios in the tower, and B) the tower studios do not have the 2 shower setup.

 

[intamin]

If my heart was set on mostly staying in studios in the new tower, the competition from existing owners would certainly give me pause for thought if it is the same association. But if I was mainly interested in 1 BRs or bigger, I would not be worried about getting what I wanted at 11 months, same association or not.

Not really that worried about the 1BRs to be honest but the 2BRs I can see becoming competitive just because those are the only rooms besides the bungalows at PVB that can hold more than 5 at 11 months. It likely will be somewhat similar to what happened with VGF if they're put in the same association just in the opposite order.

Previously VGF had a more equal ratio of studios/1BR/2BRs. With the addition of the BPK building most original owners were disappointed it was part of the same association as 2 million points were added and added far more studios, making 1/2BR availability more difficult.

In this case, there's already a plethora of studios and current owners want the tower added to their association so they can also stay in the 1/2BRs. Potential new owners want it to be a new association to block out the bungalow points and the prior owners as they don't care as much about the longhouse studios or else they likely would've bought direct/resale PVB already. I've seen far more current PVB owners wanting it to be added to the current association just so they can add 150 and upgrade to 1/2BRs than PVB owners who don't want it part of their association so they retain booking priority on the longhouse studios.

 

[Sandisw]

If my heart was set on mostly staying in studios in the new tower, the competition from existing owners would certainly give me pause for thought if it is the same association. But if I was mainly interested in 1 BRs or bigger, I would not be worried about getting what I wanted at 11 months, same association or not.

I do get some might not be worried but for me, spending that much money knowing 4 million points are attached to rooms that are part of an area I just don’t like does not make sense.

And, while larger units are what we typically book, studios could also be things we’d want occasionally.

So, it’s it’s not a new association, we will end up adding more RIV points at some point since we know that makes us happy!

 

[intamin]

Something I was thinking about is if they do make it a new association it may further incentivize buying direct even if it's not at Poly tower. People on these boards have long been saying RIV is alone with the resale restrictions and still is alone at least on the WDW side. As a result people commonly say I don't care about RIV, resale restrictions are fine with me but will people care about Poly tower? CFW? Obviously the Cabins at FW will have the restrictions so it will join RIV at WDW but a new poly association would accelerate restrictions becoming the norm and increase direct only inventory and further separate the product.

 

[maui22]

Something I was thinking about is if they do make it a new association it may further incentivize buying direct even if it's not at Poly tower. People on these boards have long been saying RIV is alone with the resale restrictions and still is alone at least on the WDW side. As a result people commonly say I don't care about RIV, resale restrictions are fine with me but will people care about Poly tower? CFW? Obviously the Cabins at FW will have the restrictions so it will join RIV at WDW but a new poly association would accelerate restrictions becoming the norm and increase direct only inventory and further separate the product.

Not sure how others feel. I am less concerned about restrictions preventing tower from access because we can use our points at so many MK area options. BRV, CCV, BLT, VGF, and PVB. BRV and CCV are the point friendly options. BLT is next. VGF and PVB higher points.

Restrictions have a larger impact for us when 2042 resorts expire because two low point chart popular Epcot resorts expire.

 

[intamin]

Not sure how others feel. I am less concerned about restrictions preventing tower from access because we can use our points at so many MK area options. BRV, CCV, BLT, VGF, and PVB. BRV and CCV are the point friendly options. BLT is next. VGF and PVB higher points.

Restrictions have a larger impact for us when 2042 resorts expire because two low point chart popular Epcot resorts expire.

Yeah there's definitely a surplus of options at MK, I guess I meant more that any way DVC can increase the number of direct only resorts at WDW may encourage people to buy direct over resale because as it stands the product is not that different from resale.

 

[Sandisw]

Yeah there's definitely a surplus of options at MK, I guess I meant more that any way DVC can increase the number of direct only resorts at WDW may encourage people to buy direct over resale because as it stands the product is not that different from resale.

That really is the whole notion behind them. Had the pandemic not happened and Reflections come into pla, there would already be another one along with RIV

It’s why it’s going to be a shock to me if they abandon them for the tower. TBH, if they do, I think they will lose a lot of credibility with what and how they will do things.

I think People will be more likely to gamble with resale and hope DVD keeps flip flopping.

 

[intamin]

That really is the whole notion behind them. Had the pandemic not happened and Reflections come into pla, there would already be another one along with RIV

It’s why it’s going to be a shock to me if they abandon them for the tower. TBH, if they do, I think they will lose a lot of credibility with what and how they will do things.

I think People will be more likely to gamble with resale and hope DVD keeps flip flopping.

Agreed. As it stands if they don't apply resale restrictions to the tower only 2 resorts at WDW in 5 years (2019-2024) will have had the restrictions. If they add poly tower to that it makes it more compelling to consider direct. Disney has plenty of inventory to sell off as it is with a limited amount of real estate near their parks. If they keep flip flopping like you said it's going to take significantly longer for people to recognize the difference between resale and direct which just makes me lean further toward new association.

 

[FrannyFrogs]

We're PVB owners with older teens and we book two studios, requesting them to be connecting. The unique nature of the Poly (pretty much ALL the studios are connecting) makes it really likely for the request to be granted! So I would be interested in the 1 or 2 bedroom options, but I'd compare that directly with the studio*2 in terms of points.

 

[GoingSince1990]

Agreed. As it stands if they don't apply resale restrictions to the tower only 2 resorts at WDW in 5 years (2019-2024) will have had the restrictions. If they add poly tower to that it makes it more compelling to consider direct. Disney has plenty of inventory to sell off as it is with a limited amount of real estate near their parks. If they keep flip flopping like you said it's going to take significantly longer for people to recognize the difference between resale and direct which just makes me lean further toward new association.

To which Disney’s response would probably be “we haven’t flip-flopped at all, we said every new DVC resort would have resale restrictions, and we are standing by that, but we consider BPK and the new PVB tower to be expansions of existing resorts as opposed to new resorts”.

 

[intamin]

To which Disney’s response would probably be “we haven’t flip-flopped at all, we said every new DVC resort would have resale restrictions, and we are standing by that, but we consider BPK and the new PVB tower to be expansions of existing resorts as opposed to new resorts”.

To which people would then say: "Why do I need to buy direct then? They'll probably add an expansion to BLT down the line". It doesn't matter if Disney thinks they're not flip flopping, it matters how the consumer perceives it.

 

[intamin]

We're PVB owners with older teens and we book two studios, requesting them to be connecting. The unique nature of the Poly (pretty much ALL the studios are connecting) makes it really likely for the request to be granted! So I would be interested in the 1 or 2 bedroom options, but I'd compare that directly with the studio*2 in terms of points.

That's a good point. It is generally more point efficient to book 2 studios vs. a 2BR and pretty much the only thing we actually do know about the poly tower are the point charts are going to be insane. It may lead to slightly less competition for the tower but honestly IDK how many owners will even consider that as an option when you can guarantee your entire party is together and have the full kitchen/laundry by booking a 2BR.

 

[maui22]

To which people would then say: "Why do I need to buy direct then? They'll probably add an expansion to BLT down the line". It doesn't matter if Disney thinks they're not flip flopping, it matters how the consumer perceives it.

I believe Florida law prevents them from expanding at BLT because there are less than 40 years remaining. Any construction there must be a new association.

This 40 year restriction is why CCV became its own association and not part of BRV. That was before restrictions.

 

[maui22]

We're PVB owners with older teens and we book two studios, requesting them to be connecting. The unique nature of the Poly (pretty much ALL the studios are connecting) makes it really likely for the request to be granted! So I would be interested in the 1 or 2 bedroom options, but I'd compare that directly with the studio*2 in terms of points.

I never thought of that. Accommodates up to 10 with 2 full bathrooms and 2 shower/sink bathrooms.

Tower 1BR will likely sleep 5 with 2 full bathrooms.
Tower 2BR will likely sleep 9 with 3 full bathrooms.
Tower GVs would be the only way to sleep more than 10.

 

[maui22]

That's a good point. It is generally more point efficient to book 2 studios vs. a 2BR and pretty much the only thing we actually do know about the poly tower are the point charts are going to be insane. It may lead to slightly less competition for the tower but honestly IDK how many owners will even consider that as an option when you can guarantee your entire party is together and have the full kitchen/laundry by booking a 2BR.

Niece has 4 children including a 2yo. We gave her a choice of 2 PVB studios or 2BR at BLT. She chose BLT for the exact reasons you mention.

 

[intamin]

Niece has 4 children including a 2yo. We gave her a choice of 2 PVB studios or 2BR at BLT. She chose BLT for the exact reasons you mention.

I don’t blame her. Not only that but the point charts are better at BLT and I couldn’t even imagine risking being in nonconnecting rooms from my kids at least while they’re young.