Let's speculate about Polynesian some more!

[Sandisw]

Good point. It looks like the VDH association was originally formed in California on July 7, 2022 and VDH just opened on September 28, 2023. I don't see anything for the FW association yet either. It doesn't look like they've used dummy names/address for the original filings in the past since no amendments are showing.

Thank for checking and it will be interesting to see when one or the other shows up. As I said, given they are both slated to open in 2024, the filing timeline against those other two is defiantly going to be shorter…

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Isn’t the poly tower slated for Late 24…?

Vaguely remember VDH have the same thing late 22, but being delayed until early 23 ….

Maybe that was just the cash opening in late 22 and Dvc sale started in 23

 

[SPLzero]

Isn’t the poly tower slated for Late 24…?

Vaguely remember VDH have the same thing late 22, but being delayed until early 23 ….

Maybe that was just the cash opening in late 22 and Dvc sale started in 23

I think speculation was late 2022 but Disney only announced 2023.

 

[maui22]

Disclaimer: we are PVB owners (both direct and resale).

If tower is new association, we do not plan to add-on because we would only be buying for 1BR (occasional) 2BR. Too much data shows 1BRs are the last rooms to book, so it's hard for us to justify adding on if we want 1BRs. We don't go to WDW during peak Nov-Dec time period and we have had success booking 1BRs at both BCV and BWV during F&W. I can't imagine the tower as a new association being more difficult than BCV 1BRs during F&W. We cannot justify paying $50k ($200/pt and 250 or more points for the point charts) just for 1BRs that we feel will be available during our vacation times. Duo studios have some appeal to us, but can't see spending the money when we already own at PVB (short walk to access tower amenities plus we prefer PVB side due to the easy access for transportation).

If it's part of existing association, we are highly likely to addon. In this scenario, Poly 1BRs and 2BRs become harder to book (4 million points already and many want 1BR-2BR but not bungalow point charts). We feel in this scenario, one will need to own at Polynesian Villas to be able to book 1BRs and 2BRs. Forces us to addon. We are already planning to sell most of our non-PVB points if it's same association. Because we want points that can be booked at RIV, VDH, and CFW, we would would buy a PV addon direct from Disney for the same number of points we sell from our other resorts.

After writing this, I'm realizing we would be better off financially if it's a new association. Happy wife = happy life so I know we will be adding on if it's same association.

 

[SPLzero]

New construction has a trade meaning of something other than you are describing ….

What does new construction mean to you ? you called CCV new construction but only the cabins were new construction the hotel side was a gut job.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

I think speculation was late 2022 but Disney only announced 2023.

Makes more sense
Thanks

 

[zavandor]

If tower is new association, we do not plan to add-on because we would only be buying for 1BR (occasional) 2BR. Too much data shows 1BRs are the last rooms to book, so it's hard for us to justify adding on if we want 1BRs. We don't go to WDW during peak Nov-Dec time period and we have had success booking 1BRs at both BCV and BWV during F&W. I can't imagine the tower as a new association being more difficult than BCV 1BRs during F&W. We cannot justify paying $50k ($200/pt and 250 or more points for the point charts) just for 1BRs that we feel will be available during our vacation times. Duo studios have some appeal to us, but can't see spending the money when we already own at PVB (short walk to access tower amenities plus we prefer PVB side due to the easy access for transportation).

If it's part of existing association, we are highly likely to addon. In this scenario, Poly 1BRs and 2BRs become harder to book (4 million points already and many want 1BR-2BR but not bungalow point charts). We feel in this scenario, one will need to own at Polynesian Villas to be able to book 1BRs and 2BRs. Forces us to addon. We are already planning to sell most of our non-PVB points if it's same association. Because we want points that can be booked at RIV, VDH, and CFW, we would would buy a PV addon direct from Disney for the same number of points we sell from our other resorts.

After writing this, I'm realizing we would be better off financially if it's a new association. Happy wife = happy life so I know we will be adding on if it's same association.

You raise a very compelling argument for it being the same association!

 

[Robbie Cottam]

What does new construction mean to you ? you called CCV new construction but only the cabins were new construction the hotel side was a gut job.

New improvements on the property.

Like when Disney build SSR built over an existing resort,

Or BLT they bull dozed 3 smaller buildings and started over…

Like you said the cabins were new construction…

if I’m not mistaken some of the other accommodation were built new for CCV

I actually had forgotten about the part of the resort they had gutted…

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

Disclaimer: we are PVB owners (both direct and resale).

If tower is new association, we do not plan to add-on because we would only be buying for 1BR (occasional) 2BR. Too much data shows 1BRs are the last rooms to book, so it's hard for us to justify adding on if we want 1BRs. We don't go to WDW during peak Nov-Dec time period and we have had success booking 1BRs at both BCV and BWV during F&W. I can't imagine the tower as a new association being more difficult than BCV 1BRs during F&W. We cannot justify paying $50k ($200/pt and 250 or more points for the point charts) just for 1BRs that we feel will be available during our vacation times. Duo studios have some appeal to us, but can't see spending the money when we already own at PVB (short walk to access tower amenities plus we prefer PVB side due to the easy access for transportation).

If it's part of existing association, we are highly likely to addon. In this scenario, Poly 1BRs and 2BRs become harder to book (4 million points already and many want 1BR-2BR but not bungalow point charts). We feel in this scenario, one will need to own at Polynesian Villas to be able to book 1BRs and 2BRs. Forces us to addon. We are already planning to sell most of our non-PVB points if it's same association. Because we want points that can be booked at RIV, VDH, and CFW, we would would buy a PV addon direct from Disney for the same number of points we sell from our other resorts.

After writing this, I'm realizing we would be better off financially if it's a new association. Happy wife = happy life so I know we will be adding on if it's same association.

Ditto!!! Exact same situation and mindset.

 

[Jwaire]

In this scenario, Poly 1BRs and 2BRs become harder to book (4 million points already and many want 1BR-2BR but not bungalow point charts). We feel in this scenario, one will need to own at Polynesian Villas to be able to book 1BRs and 2BRs. Forces us to addon.

The only 1 and 2 bedrooms at the Tower that will be hard to book at right at 7 months will be the standard view rooms. There's no way the preferred view rooms won't be available at 7 months, especially after the new wears off and the majority of rooms are declared.

I don't buy this argument that there's this large percentage of PVB owners that want a 1 or 2 bedroom units. I'm not saying there aren't some, but if booking availability has shown us anything, it's studios are by far the most popular room type.

Additionally, the average PVB owner is going to have purchased the base contract from DVC that had incentives while it was selling direct. Whether it was 100 or 120 back in 2015, that's probably the majority of PVB owners. That's going to buy you what 2, possibly 3, days in a 2 bedroom unit in this tower?

I know PVB owners that won't even stay there because they don't want to spend the 17-25 points per night. They spend all of their PVB points on OKW and SSR so they can stay longer.

This tower is massive. It's not a repeat of GFV1. If you already own direct points, you're going to get to stay there at 7 months after the initial frenzy.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Ditto!!! Exact same situation and mindset.

Exactly, what I’m afraid of and why is would not buy if the two units are one association ….

Funny how that works

 

[Robbie Cottam]

The only 1 and 2 bedrooms at the Tower that will be hard to book at right at 7 months will be the standard view rooms. There's no way the preferred view rooms won't be available at 7 months, especially after the new wears off and the majority of rooms are declared.

I don't buy this argument that there's this large percentage of PVB owners that want a 1 or 2 bedroom units. I'm not saying there aren't some, but if booking availability has shown us anything, it's studios are by far the most popular room type.

Additionally, the average PVB owner is going to have purchased the base contract from DVC that had incentives while it was selling direct. Whether it was 100 or 120 back in 2015, that's probably the majority of PVB owners. That's going to buy you what 2, possibly 3, days in a 2 bedroom unit in this tower?

I know PVB owners that won't even stay there because they don't want to spend the 17-25 points per night. They spend all of their PVB points on OKW and SSR so they can stay longer.

This tower is massive. It's not a repeat of GFV1. If you already own direct points, you're going to get to stay there at 7 months after the initial frenzy.

I’m actually think it is kinda small 4 million points, makes it smaller than bay lake only about 25 percent bigger than Beach club

 

[Genie+]

In the end I hope Disney decides to do what I want and that is to sell me a new unrestricted association at 180 pp.

I’m in. Sold! Even if it meant buying 150pts instead of the 100pts we’d prefer.

Here’s the timeline from last 3 pre-pandemic openings.

	PVB	CCV	RIV
Official DVC announcement	Sept 17, 2013	Sept 22, 2015	July 15, 2017
Months between	8.5m	11.5m	12m
Timeshare Lic granted	June 2, 2014	Sept 6, 2016	July 17, 2018
Months between	12m	5.5m	7m
Master Declaration Date	June 7, 2015	Feb 21, 2017	Feb 25, 2019
Months between	6m	- 8 days -	1m
Sales info released	Jan 8, 2015	Mar 1, 2017	Mar 25, 2019
Days between	- 4 days -	- 7 days -	- 2 days -
Sales open - DVC members	Jan 12, 2015	Mar 8, 2017	Mar 27, 2019
Months between	1m	1m	.5m
Sales open - New Members	Feb 9, 2015	Apr 5, 2017	Apr 15, 2019
Months between	2m	3.5m	8m
RESORT OPENS	Apr 1, 2015	July 17, 2017	Dec 16, 2019

Time between TS license granted to opening:

PVB 10m, CCV 10.5m, RIV 17m (Poly Tower has not gotten TS license yet?)

 

[intamin]

Does anybody have a list of the total amount of points at each DVC resort?

 

[maui22]

The only 1 and 2 bedrooms at the Tower that will be hard to book at right at 7 months will be the standard view rooms. There's no way the preferred view rooms won't be available at 7 months, especially after the new wears off and the majority of rooms are declared.

I don't buy this argument that there's this large percentage of PVB owners that want a 1 or 2 bedroom units. I'm not saying there aren't some, but if booking availability has shown us anything, it's studios are by far the most popular room type.

Additionally, the average PVB owner is going to have purchased the base contract from DVC that had incentives while it was selling direct. Whether it was 100 or 120 back in 2015, that's probably the majority of PVB owners. That's going to buy you what 2, possibly 3, days in a 2 bedroom unit in this tower?

I know PVB owners that won't even stay there because they don't want to spend the 17-25 points per night. They spend all of their PVB points on OKW and SSR so they can stay longer.

This tower is massive. It's not a repeat of GFV1. If you already own direct points, you're going to get to stay there at 7 months after the initial frenzy.

I don't recall writing "large percentage". No clue what the percentge is. Some number of 4 million points already owned want larger than studios. A resort like BLT, I believe it's pretty close same number of 2BR dedicated and 2BR lockoffs. At PVB, pretty scary it's 360 studios and the number of bungalows.

Your point about some booking OKW and SSR to stay longer at a low point chart resort is good. I recall some posting they bought PVB as new owners. They learned they could book 1BRs (more space) at lower point chart resorts for just a bit more than PVB studio. People book other resorts for many reasons.

When I compared DVCNews data from PVB sales over a 3 month period to VGF, PVB average contract size (points recorded that month divided by contracts) was around 20 points lower than VGF. This was over the 3 months during active sales periods. This may not be accurate for all the sales. I don't recall what the requirement was for most of PVB sales. My failing memory thinks it was 125 (at least for a portion of PVB active sales).

Thanks for giving me more things to try to convince DW from adding on at the tower.

 

[Genie+]

Does anybody have a list of the total amount of points at each DVC resort

Riviera is 6.7 million, and VGF added about 2 million with Big Pine Key

 

[intamin]

View attachment 797750
Riviera is 6.7 million, and VGF added about 2 million with Big Pine Key

Thank you very much for this!

 

[DanCali]

View attachment 797750
Riviera is 6.7 million, and VGF added about 2 million with Big Pine Key

Holy smokes - I didn't realize Aulani was that big...

 

[intamin]

Holy smokes - I didn't realize Aulani was that big...

Makes sense why it's basically been selling forever. 11.5 million / (100k * 12 months) = 9.6 years. Even if they were to sell Aulani at 100k per month it still would take 9.6 years.. not even on property resorts sell that fast and then add in COVID lol

 

[sethschroeder]

I don't run a hotel but I would assume having 2 DVC associations would be more work for really not much benefit

All of the cost of running it as two are passed back to members though so in the end does it really matter? The benefit is either a shorter contract or further pushing resale restrictions.