latest info on hurricane isabel

[KYCruiseCrazy]

here is the latest info on hurricane isahell LOL http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT13/refresh/AL1303W5+GIF/112053W5.gif:(

 

[MarkRG]

To accurately read that map, the circle is NOT the range of influence, just the range of where it could possibly go- the dotted line is the most accurate predicted track of it. It's area of influence won't be any bigger than the orange dot on the bottom right.

To me it looks like they are predicting to start turning northward. Now what steers these things are weather fronts. Right now there's a big one riding the jet stream that's going to pass the midwest on the weekend, it might be in place on the east coast by the middle of next week to turn it more northward, which if it can, the atlantic currents will grab it and drag it almost straight north.

 

[floridaminnie]

It needs to keep moving north!

 

[KYCruiseCrazy]

yes it does but as of right now the weather channel thinks its bahamas are going to feel it. maybe not the weather but for sure the storm surge. IE bigger waves

 

[MarkRG]

Don't be too worried CC is on the western side of the Bahamas, as is Nassau. The rough water will be mostly on the east side.

 

[#1Mouse]

So our cruise on Sunday - Wednesday should be smooth???

 

[KYCruiseCrazy]

its offical hurricane isabel is a cat 5 hurricane.i hope it dont kill no one

 

[justmestace]

KYCruiseCrazy....Coming from someone who is set to sail on Sunday, your note is not very encouraging!

 

[Penny12]

justmestace - I'm sure KYCruiseCrazy was referring to people who live on the islands who may be in Isabel's path. There is positively <b>no</b> risk to you - cruise ships navigate away from hurricanes and will always avoid what bad weather (rain, choppy seas) they can.

I hope you all have a wonderful cruise - hurricane or no, I'm still jealous of you all going!

 

[MarkRG]

Anyone cruising should be fine- its possibility of it getting near anything isn't until Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, and even then they are more and more saying it might get close to the Carolinas if anywhere. it probably won't get close to anything cruise related, so go and have fun!

 

[buzz&woody'smom]

First I wish you all well that are sailing this weekend and next week and as stated yesterday a cruise ship is a great place to be during a Hurricane

MarkRG-I live in coastal eastern NC and my parent coastal SC and sister in Myrtle Beach. When you say turning North so you "think" NC or SC?

Thanks and worried

Tiffiny

 

[tecdavidt]

The midwest cold front will be in Iowa this weekend. We have been having temps in the 80's and our high Sunday is suppose to be 69 to 70. Lets hope that front does go east and push Isabell north! I have been in one Tropical storm which was really what was left over after Hurricane Erin slammed into Florida back in 1995 or maybe it was 96. We were in New Orleans at an AAU Nat. Baseball tournament. The rain bans were huge! Lets hope it goes north out into the Atlantic's open waters. Kathy

 

[KYCruiseCrazy]

what i mean is in 1988 a cat 5 hurricane "Gilbert" hit and kill many people. no cruise ships were touched. many people were warned and no one left. i was in nc when "Floyd" and "Hugo" hit. i'm a person who goes to church. i dont expect to see anyone on any cruiseships getting hurt. i just pray that when land fall it made by Isabel. i will never wish anyone to die. i just got off the phone with DCL and they say both the wonder and magic will get no where near Isabel. thanks and im sorry if i scared anyone

 

[starwood]

The latest.

 

[Miss Jasmine]

Actually the 11:00 update will be coming shortly.

And here it is, still waiting for the graphical images:
000
WTNT43 KNHC 121432
TCDAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2003

MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA FROM LAST NIGHT SHOW
THAT ISABEL HAS COMPLETED A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE. IT NOW HAS A
WELL-DEFINED 35 NM WIDE EYE WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS STILL GOOD IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST QUADRANTS...BUT IS ONLY FAIR TO POOR ELSEWHERE AND ON THE
WHOLE LOOKS LESS GOOD THAN YESTERDAY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE ALL 140 KT...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. HOWEVER...SINCE
THE TIME OF THE ESTIMATES THERE HAS BEEN SOME WARMING OF THE
EYEWALL CONVECTIVE TOPS. NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/8. ISABEL IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH AN ANTICYCLONE CENTER IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY NEAR 29N55W...AND BETWEEN LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS ALONG
68W AND 41W. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A WESTWARD TO
POSSIBLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. FURTHER UPSTREAM...A DEEP
LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THE EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH THE WESTERLIES OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WILL DETERMINE THE LONG-RANGE COURSE OF
ISABEL. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON A WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HR...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK FOLLOWS ALONG THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE. CONSIDERABLE
DIVERGENCE OCCURS AFTER 72 HR. THE UKMET CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY 120 HR TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN RIDGE LEFT BY
THE DEEP-LAYER LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
GFS...NOGAPS...GFDL... CANADIAN...AND ECMWF MODELS ALL CALL FOR AN
EARLIER AND MORE NORTHWARD MOTION. SINCE ALL MODELS KEEP SOME DEEP
LAYER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
ISABEL...SO SHARP OF A TURN LOOKS A LITTLE DUBIOUS. THUS...THE 3-5
DAY OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE UKMET AT A SLOWER
FORWARD SPEED.

ISABEL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A WARM-WATER LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
FOR ROUGHLY THE NEXT 72 HR. DURING THAT TIME...THE INTENSITY
SHOULD BE CONTROLLED MAINLY BY HARD-TO-FORECAST EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL THUS CALL FOR A SLOW WEAKENING
THROUGH THAT TIME BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS
AND CLIMATOLOGY. AFTER 72 HR...THE GFS AND NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT
ISABEL MAY MOVE NORTH OF A 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AND GET EXPOSED TO
SOME SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS TO THIS BY FORECASTING 30 KT
OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BY 120 HR. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SOMEWHAT FASTER WEAKENING. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST ISABEL TO GROW IN
SIZE BEYOND 72 HR...WHICH MAY BE REFLECTED IN LATER WIND RADII
FORECASTS.

GIVEN THE DIVERGENCE OF THE MODELS AT 120 HR...IT IS STILL TO EARLY
TO EVEN SPECULATE WHICH PARTS...IF ANY...OF EASTERN COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES MAY GET AFFECTED BY ISABEL.

Next update will be at 5 PM

 

[Miss Jasmine]

Here is the 9/12/03 11:00AM graphic:

 

[BrianD]

Basically, it's still WAY to early to tell what kind of impact Isabel will have on the Bahamas or the US, but she could be somewhere near the Bahamas by early to the middle of next week. If Isabel gets close enough to the Bahamas, it could definitely impact cruising, because the swells will be very large since it is a very intense hurricane. However, unless Isabel heads directly towards the coast of Florida, the worst thing that would happen would be an itenerary change in the 3/4 day cruise, maybe changing to ports like Key West or Cozumel (if that's not too far away for a short cruise), areas away from Isabel's impact.

 

[M&Ms Mum]

I am on the Cruise leaving Thursday, the 18th. I think Cozumel is too far away as it's in the Western Carribean, but I'll take Grand Cayman I went Scuba Diving in Cozumel last year, but I didn't get to in Gr Cayman as the day was too short, but I could always try this year !!

We shall see how it goes

 

[disneyfan551]

...have you talked to your family on the SC coast lately? I'm thinking of going to MB the weekend of the 20th, and am worried about Isabel's effect there... Let us know if you hear any local news!

Thanks!

 

[buzz&woody'smom]

Tiffany-

In fact I am in Marion SC at my parent's house now which is about 40 minutes from MB. I will post when they update us.

Tiffiny