Late spring 2025 incentives (April 29-July 14)

[Disneydad14]

And with fifteen year loans available now…they probably will have to, or give it back to Disney, as they may be underwater for much longer!

Renting points might be thrrr best option but Disney is cracking down on that as well and they rent more than anyone

 

[eticketplease]

I will be the first person in line to buy LL if it doesn’t have resale restrictions

I can’t remember where it was posted but @Brian Noble has shared very reliable website that can predict if this will happen

 

[maui22]

I looked earlier today at the county comptroller site. I don’t recall the exact numbers but it was roughly 850 deeds sold by Disney showed up in June. Another 1050 or so were people selling/foreclosing/transfer/etc. Could probably do this for a full year to eliminate seasonal factors (fewer sell now and more sell around dues time).

Given the number of total points out there for Orange County Florida, someone could probably do the math to figure things out. Multiply by 12 months to get an estimate for the year. Then divide this number by total sold points (all resorts) for all Orange County Florida resorts. Shouldn’t that roughly indicate the percent each year? I think that could be used to determine rough estimate of years owned. Problem is this number includes deeds sold multiple times.

Would require something larger than the scale of @wdrl amazing work to get true numbers.

There have been periods where people lowballed resale, bought, stripped points, then sold soon after. Those days may be less common going forward because Disney appears to be cracking down on big renters.

 

[airjay75]

To clarify my agreement with the 7-year line, I was also just accepting that as "common wisdom," and I believe several different podcasts sponsored by the site sponsor are whom I've heard it from. I suppose I just accepted it since it made some intuitive sense from my perspective. But, who knows whether it is true. I know for myself, I am certainly not thinking about my RIV points purchase as a 7-year commitment.

And, also worth noting that emphasizing such a short average holding period, regardless of whether it is true, probably makes a lot of sense if you're in the business of facilitating the purchase and sale of resale contracts .

 

[Kingkonig]

And, also worth noting that emphasizing such a short average holding period, regardless of whether it is true, probably makes a lot of sense if you're in the business of facilitating the purchase and sale of resale contracts .

I imagine that this is more of a “this is what our internal data shows of our customers and we extrapolated it erroneously across the entire program” more than it is a hard number.

They do that at times with their own internal/Facebook polling. It’s well enough to have a conversation, but not to actually make decisions off of.

 

[BeachClub2014]

I wouldn’t say it’s a great deal becuse of rivieras trajectory on the resale market in such a short time. I think it has a real chance to be very low in the next 4-5 years also.

The current values of any resort, including Riviera, on the resale market only matter on one day: the day the buyer makes an offer and the seller accepts. Every other day, the "value" is just a number in the sky whose only purpose is to fill a cell on a "break-even" spreadsheet and make owners feel better about their purchase.

 

[Kingkonig]

The current values of any resort, including Riviera, on the resale market only matter on one day: the day the buyer makes an offer and the seller accepts. Every other day, the "value" is just a number in the sky whose only purpose is to fill a cell on a "break-even" spreadsheet and make owners feel better about their purchase.

Yeah, it’s not really like individuals have to report quarterly assets. This is one of those things where the value in what you have is worth exactly what somebody else is willing to pay for it.

You can’t really go and borrow against a timeshare on the open market like you can a normal property.

 

[atthebeachclub]

The current values of any resort, including Riviera, on the resale market only matter on one day: the day the buyer makes an offer and the seller accepts. Every other day, the "value" is just a number in the sky whose only purpose is to fill a cell on a "break-even" spreadsheet and make owners feel better about their purchase.

Wouldn’t that be true of any item for sale anytime anywhere? I still buy used cars because I don’t like to lose money “on paper” right away. If you are one who hedges every bet, it’s best to plan for this.

 

[airjay75]

I think there are merits to both ways of looking at it. Until this point, DVC has been a rather unique timeshare product in that contracts have tended to retain a significant amount of resale value (sometimes even increasing) with a robust resale and rental market. It's impossible not to think about these things when purchasing DVC, and it is this very aspect that has helped a lot of us on this board get comfortable purchasing when we might otherwise have been predisposed against timeshares.

But, it is still a timeshare - it's not an asset in the traditional sense of the word - although it is a deeded real estate interest, when you buy it, you are also purchasing a contractual obligation to pay annual dues for years to come that will far exceed any amount you can obtain by selling the contract. Disney has a lot of discretion to change aspects of the program that can devalue the resale and/or rental market (e.g., RIV/CFW/VDH restrictions or recent "personal use" box). It's not quite the same as buying other sorts of actual assets - cars, homes, stocks, bonds, etc. Sure, all of those things come with their own risks, but I think they can be known and forecasted in a way that a timeshare cannot. DVC might be one of the most predictable timeshare markets, but things can, and most certainly will, change. That's why, it's probably best to look at your purchase as a pure luxury purchase where you may never be able to sell it, but you can enjoy your Disney vacations for years to come. But, human nature being what it is, we also can't help but think about the resale values and potential exit strategies and, naturally, do what we can to hedge against those risks.

 

[Lorana]

I confess with the addition of the d23 discount and AP discount, I almost bought into PVB for 100 points, as with Magical Beginnings, that brought it down to $191pp. Until I discovered that you need to buy 150 points to get MB. I don't want 150 points, so that's a pass for me.

Which is for the best, honestly. I should just keep saving up for Lakeshore Lodge, especially as at that point I'll likely need to decide what points I might be selling to help fund buying in.

 

[Patmcpsu]

I confess with the addition of the d23 discount and AP discount, I almost bought into PVB for 100 points, as with Magical Beginnings, that brought it down to $191pp. Until I discovered that you need to buy 150 points to get MB. I don't want 150 points, so that's a pass for me.

Which is for the best, honestly. I should just keep saving up for Lakeshore Lodge, especially as at that point I'll likely need to decide what points I might be selling to help fund buying in.

You can always buy 100 points direct at PVB, and then another 50 points in the future (at LSL, or anywhere else that's available direct at the time). You would become eligible for MB after you accumulate your 150th point.

To me the biggest advantage of buying direct is the points being totally unrestricted. The direct "benefits" are secondary. That means you'll still get to enjoy the most important perk during the interim.

 

[tx911]

To me the biggest advantage of buying direct is the points being totally unrestricted. The direct "benefits" are secondary.

Amen!

 

[Kingkonig]

You can always buy 100 points direct at PVB, and then another 50 points in the future (at LSL, or anywhere else that's available direct at the time). You would become eligible for MB after you accumulate your 150th point.

To me the biggest advantage of buying direct is the points being totally unrestricted. The direct "benefits" are secondary. That means you'll still get to enjoy the most important perk during the interim.

I think MB in this case meant Magical Beginnings not Member Magic Beyond in this case?

 

[Lorana]

You can always buy 100 points direct at PVB, and then another 50 points in the future (at LSL, or anywhere else that's available direct at the time). You would become eligible for MB after you accumulate your 150th point.

To me the biggest advantage of buying direct is the points being totally unrestricted. The direct "benefits" are secondary. That means you'll still get to enjoy the most important perk during the interim.

I think MB in this case meant Magical Beginnings not Member Magic Beyond in this case?

Yes, I meant Magical Beginnings. I was potentially looking to add on 50-100 points at PVB, and the additional incentives made the direct pricing enticing... until I discovered they won't allow Magical Beginnings for less than 150 points at PVB. Which is for the best. This was more of an impulse buy than a need-to-buy. We have more than enough points at present.

 

[Disneydad14]

I imagine that this is more of a “this is what our internal data shows of our customers and we extrapolated it erroneously across the entire program” more than it is a hard number.

They do that at times with their own internal/Facebook polling. It’s well enough to have a conversation, but not to actually make decisions off of.

The Facebook stuff I agree is not scientific but the 7 year thing by his they talk about it seemed scientific. But who knows

 

[Dodgerburt8]

I think there are merits to both ways of looking at it. Until this point, DVC has been a rather unique timeshare product in that contracts have tended to retain a significant amount of resale value (sometimes even increasing) with a robust resale and rental market. It's impossible not to think about these things when purchasing DVC, and it is this very aspect that has helped a lot of us on this board get comfortable purchasing when we might otherwise have been predisposed against timeshares.

But, it is still a timeshare - it's not an asset in the traditional sense of the word - although it is a deeded real estate interest, when you buy it, you are also purchasing a contractual obligation to pay annual dues for years to come that will far exceed any amount you can obtain by selling the contract. Disney has a lot of discretion to change aspects of the program that can devalue the resale and/or rental market (e.g., RIV/CFW/VDH restrictions or recent "personal use" box). It's not quite the same as buying other sorts of actual assets - cars, homes, stocks, bonds, etc. Sure, all of those things come with their own risks, but I think they can be known and forecasted in a way that a timeshare cannot. DVC might be one of the most predictable timeshare markets, but things can, and most certainly will, change. That's why, it's probably best to look at your purchase as a pure luxury purchase where you may never be able to sell it, but you can enjoy your Disney vacations for years to come. But, human nature being what it is, we also can't help but think about the resale values and potential exit strategies and, naturally, do what we can to hedge against those risks.

Yes. Excellent points. The other place resale value matters is in the direct versus resale decision. The delta on Riviera is crazy. You can literally buy double the points for the same price and take twice as many vacations staying at the Riviera. Where as say at Poly it’s closer to 1.5 times the points for the same price. It’s funny to me how Disney is so successful at getting people to be afraid of not having flexibility to (gasp) use their points at somewhere besides the Riviera, but simultaneously convince them that the flexibility of exiting the vacation club without taking large financial loss doesn’t matter.

 

[Disneydad14]

I think there are merits to both ways of looking at it. Until this point, DVC has been a rather unique timeshare product in that contracts have tended to retain a significant amount of resale value (sometimes even increasing) with a robust resale and rental market. It's impossible not to think about these things when purchasing DVC, and it is this very aspect that has helped a lot of us on this board get comfortable purchasing when we might otherwise have been predisposed against timeshares.

But, it is still a timeshare - it's not an asset in the traditional sense of the word - although it is a deeded real estate interest, when you buy it, you are also purchasing a contractual obligation to pay annual dues for years to come that will far exceed any amount you can obtain by selling the contract. Disney has a lot of discretion to change aspects of the program that can devalue the resale and/or rental market (e.g., RIV/CFW/VDH restrictions or recent "personal use" box). It's not quite the same as buying other sorts of actual assets - cars, homes, stocks, bonds, etc. Sure, all of those things come with their own risks, but I think they can be known and forecasted in a way that a timeshare cannot. DVC might be one of the most predictable timeshare markets, but things can, and most certainly will, change. That's why, it's probably best to look at your purchase as a pure luxury purchase where you may never be able to sell it, but you can enjoy your Disney vacations for years to come. But, human nature being what it is, we also can't help but think about the resale values and potential exit strategies and, naturally, do what we can to hedge against those risks.

I think we came to similar conclusions but you’re saying it more poetically. Dvc was a great product in a sleezebag industry and now it’s becoming more like the sleezebag industry .

On a personal level I bought 310 points over two contracts bc when I crunched the numbers I figured I would end up ahead on value , not a investment.

My assumptions were:

I would go to all three non theme park resorts at least once
I would take my daughter ( 4 years old) to Disneyworld at least 3 times in the next 5 years, perhaps more
My average cost PP is 119 and I own a mix of copper creek and bay lake (36k total)

I totally agree this is a luxury purchase and that’s why I didn’t finance . I also understand it’s not an investment, but the math in my head did seem to think if I did the minimum above I would come out ahead . Also the ability to rent points made it extremely attractive and I’ve already recovered 3500.

At the end of the day if the value plummets I’m not terrible concerned but this is why I hate to see it become just like any other timeshare. What I have come to learn since owning the contracts that the dvc ecosystem is so fun for me that I think I already have come out ahead even just with the fun of planning for hours

 

[airjay75]

I think we came to similar conclusions but you’re saying it more poetically. Dvc was a great product in a sleezebag industry and now it’s becoming more like the sleezebag industry .

On a personal level I bought 310 points over two contracts bc when I crunched the numbers I figured I would end up ahead on value , not a investment.

My assumptions were:

I would go to all three non theme park resorts at least once
I would take my daughter ( 4 years old) to Disneyworld at least 3 times in the next 5 years, perhaps more
My average cost PP is 119 and I own a mix of copper creek and bay lake (36k total)

I totally agree this is a luxury purchase and that’s why I didn’t finance . I also understand it’s not an investment, but the math in my head did seem to think if I did the minimum above I would come out ahead . Also the ability to rent points made it extremely attractive and I’ve already recovered 3500.

At the end of the day if the value plummets I’m not terrible concerned but this is why I hate to see it become just like any other timeshare. What I have come to learn since owning the contracts that the dvc ecosystem is so fun for me that I think I already have come out ahead even just with the fun of planning for hours

I am totally with you, and I think you also said it very well with your first two sentences I've bolded. Here's to hoping they don't go full sleezebag . It has also probably been a little easier for me to accept it because I am much newer to DVC, my first stay at a DVC resort was RIV, and our family really fell in love with the resort. Yeah, I wish those resale restrictions would go away, but it is what it is. I think it is still a very fun product, but not quite as fun as it was before (and likely decreasing just a bit with every new resort that comes online).

 

[Kingkonig]

The Facebook stuff I agree is not scientific but the 7 year thing by his they talk about it seemed scientific. But who knows

Maybe. I don’t think it is, mainly because that would require a lot of research into state records for very little gain. And given the other numbers they use on their podcast, I’m not really convinced that they spent the time or money to have one of their talking points be factually accurate.

 

[Sandisw]

You're completely right about average holding periods for DVC. Most people do exit after 5-8 years. And, I do wish Disney would do away with the resale restrictions, but I just don't think that is going to happen. DVD realized they were far outside the mainstream when it comes to timeshare resale restrictions, and they are slowly bringing the product back into that reality. RIV/CFW/VDH aren't going to be anomalies - they are the start of a new era. No choice but to accept that new reality IMO. Would be delighted to be wrong.

This is not true....most people do not exit DVC in 5 to 8 years. That is a data point that is misquoted.....of the owners who actually sell, the average ownership may be 7 - 10 years....but the number of owners who are selling in any given time is a very small % of the total owners out there.

For example, if 5% of owners put their contracts up every year (making up the % because I don't know), then the average length of ownership is only looked at for the owners in the 5%.....it does not consider what the average length of ownership is in the 95% who are not selling.

Plus, some owners sell contracts, like me, to buy others so we continue to own DVC, but simply at different resorts.