Land Border Opening?

[samsteele]

Always when returning to the country. Never when I leave. It's weird? But whatever, I always have it.

This. I used to travel with my sister-in-law and niece to WDW and we always had the form signed by my brother. Never asked when leaving Canada. Always asked to see it when returning. Always flew through Toronto YYZ.

A few years ago, I was in a multiple hour wait at the Thousand Islands Bridge. Thankfully, I noticed the heavier traffic on the 401 exit to the crossing and stopped at duty free for a bathroom break. It was in early November and I didn't do my homework. I didn't know that it was a favourite day for Ontario and Quebec snowbirds to cross because of either healthcare coverage or days out of Canada allowance. I had a flight that evening out of Syracuse and that was a worry. After that, I made sure to stay overnight in Syracuse and fly out early the next morning.

 

[SaraMc]

I think until the vaccine has been given to more Canadians the border will remain the same

 

[wdwmom3]

I think until the vaccine has been given to more Canadians the border will remain the same

Agreed. But I’m interested to see if they will wait until people have both shots. Or just one? Because if it’s just one we could see things starting to change by late summer.

 

[TommyJK]

Agreed. But I’m interested to see if they will wait until people have both shots. Or just one? Because if it’s just one we could see things starting to change by late summer.

I don't think it will be based on how many people are vaccinated - not directly at least.

I think it will come down to case rates. Once both sides hit a consistently low positivity rate of infections will likely dictate when the border re-opens. And to get the case rate down for a prolonged/consistent period of time more people need to get vaccinated.

Unless of couse they setup a rule that you can't cross unless you have been vaccinated (either with first shot or fully vaccinated) but I don't think they are going to go that route IMO.

 

[Juventus]

We are up to 120000 doses administered per day which is nice (compared to where we were), but at that rate that's about 2% of population per week which puts us at around 37% population with one shot by end of June (really rough math...). That's about 14 million people, and we have about that many people above the age of 50 in Canada. Would that be enough to open the border?

I would like to see 200000 vaccinations per day...about on par per capita with The States' 2 000 000 per day.

 

[wdwmom3]

We are up to 120000 doses administered per day which is nice (compared to where we were), but at that rate that's about 2% of population per week which puts us at around 37% population with one shot by end of June (really rough math...). That's about 14 million people, and we have about that many people above the age of 50 in Canada. Would that be enough to open the border?

I would like to see 200000 vaccinations per day...about on par per capita with The States' 2 000 000 per day.

I think we will get there. Supply is increasing and they just opened some larger clinics in the Toronto area.

 

[TommyJK]

We are up to 120000 doses administered per day which is nice (compared to where we were), but at that rate that's about 2% of population per week which puts us at around 37% population with one shot by end of June (really rough math...). That's about 14 million people, and we have about that many people above the age of 50 in Canada. Would that be enough to open the border?

I would like to see 200000 vaccinations per day...about on par per capita with The States' 2 000 000 per day.

Your numbers assume that the number per day remains static and the rate of vaccination remains linear. But delivery numbers are expected to increase greatly starting next week.

Currently, Pfizer is deliving 444,600 per week. That shoots up to 1,194,570 starting next week and stay at that rate roughly through mid May. Moderna delivered 466,800 this week but next week it nearlty doubles to 846,000.

So as supply continues to increase, doses administered per day/week will shoot up as well.

Ontario alone has the ability to administer 1 million per week, we just need greater supply and based on the forecasts of deliveries Ontario will be getting almost 800,000 doses per week starting as of next week (edit - and that is just pfizer & moderna. I don't have numbers for Astrazeneca or J&J expected deliveries). If both the delivery numbers and how many people we can vaccinate per week are correct, it means that Ontario in theory could get every single adult their first shot by mid June (or potentially sooner if we factor in Astrazeneca and J&J)

 

[Juventus]

Yes, I realize numbers will go up. I'm hoping to see 200 000 per day...I feel that may give us a shot of things opening up a bit this summer.

 

[pigletto]

I disagree . I think it will be based on vaccines as long as it’s determined you can’t spread Covid as a vaccinated person. It’s a way to open things slowly and take a measured approach . The border closure is doing significant damage to our economy and trade and I do think once there is a way to manage transmission they will slowly ease restrictions. That’s just my opinion though.

We are up to 120000 doses administered per day which is nice (compared to where we were), but at that rate that's about 2% of population per week which puts us at around 37% population with one shot by end of June (really rough math...). That's about 14 million people, and we have about that many people above the age of 50 in Canada. Would that be enough to open the border?

I would like to see 200000 vaccinations per day...about on par per capita with The States' 2 000 000 per day.

 

[NewYKRunner]

139,000 vaccinations today! It’s getting better

 

[azrivest]

I disagree . I think it will be based on vaccines as long as it’s determined you can’t spread Covid as a vaccinated person.

I keep hearing that they don't know yet if the vaccine will prevent transmission as well as preventing major illnesses, which made me doubtful for a reopening anytime soon. So if the evidence is pointing towards it preventing transmission as well, that would be great news!

 

[TommyJK]

I keep hearing that they don't know yet if the vaccine will prevent transmission as well as preventing major illnesses, which made me doubtful for a reopening anytime soon. So if the evidence is pointing towards it preventing transmission as well, that would be great news!

The evidence so far is that the vaccines indeed seem to do a good job on preventing transmission. Studies out of Isreal (highest vaccinated country) are pointing to this. These findings still need to be peer reviewed though.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/pfize...ptomatic-transmission-covid/story?id=76389615

 

[Susan2771]

I wonder who the sources are, and how close they are to the administration.

Biden eyes mid-May to begin relaxing Covid travel restrictions (cnbc.com)

 

[pigletto]

It does say a senior admin official. So it’s not just Johnny who sells newspapers on the corner lol. So a “sea change” in mid May will be the start of things. Interesting.

 

[TammyLynn33]

Just announced one more month closure on CP24

 

[ilovetotravel1977]

I can't see Canada opening to the US in May. Heck, they shutdown the cruise ship season in February and it only runs from May/June to Sept/Oct and won't let them even just make technical stops to get to Alaska. Biden is dreaming.

 

[wdwmom3]

I can't see Canada opening to the US in May. Heck, they shutdown the cruise ship season in February and it only runs from May/June to Sept/Oct and won't let them even just make technical stops to get to Alaska. Biden is dreaming.

I didn’t read the article sorry. Did it specifically mention our border? Or could they be loosening other restrictions?

 

[ilovetotravel1977]

Talks about US, Mexico, Canada...

The Biden administration is looking toward the middle of May to relax restrictions on travel across the borders with Mexico and Canada and on inbound international travel from the U.K., Europe and Brazil, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

 

[TommyJK]

I didn’t read the article sorry. Did it specifically mention our border? Or could they be loosening other restrictions?

Article speaks to Canada, US, and Mexico borders as well as about oversease. While the US Admin might be eyeing mid-may, the article does go into detail with the following as it relates to Canada:

"At the northern border, one official said, Canada has been requesting the U.S. keep the border closed until citizens there can get access to vaccines. In a joint communique following a bilateral meeting in late February, Biden and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said they “agreed to take a coordinated approach based on science and public health criteria when considering measures to ease Canada-U.S. border restrictions in the future.”

So key is that It probably won't be until at least mid-june when all of Canada will just start to have access to vaccines, and still a while after that until much of the 18-50 age demo actually gets vaccinated. So while the US admin might be eyeing mid-may, I honestly don't see it happeneing until mid to late summer at the absolute earliest.

 

[NewYKRunner]

Article speaks to Canada, US, and Mexico borders as well as about oversease. While the US Admin might be eyeing mid-may, the article does go into detail with the following as it relates to Canada:

"At the northern border, one official said, Canada has been requesting the U.S. keep the border closed until citizens there can get access to vaccines. In a joint communique following a bilateral meeting in late February, Biden and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said they “agreed to take a coordinated approach based on science and public health criteria when considering measures to ease Canada-U.S. border restrictions in the future.”

So key is that It probably won't be until at least mid-june when all of Canada will just start to have access to vaccines, and still a while after that until much of the 18-50 age demo actually gets vaccinated. So while the US admin might be eyeing mid-may, I honestly don't see it happeneing until mid to late summer at the absolute earliest.

Could all be part of the negotiations between the countries which resulted in Mexico and Canada getting 4 million doses from the US